(11.3MB) Purpose Megatrends

Purpose+ Inspiration Pack, 2015

NOT CONFIDENTIAL OR PROPRIETARY –ENTIRELY SHAREABLEPurpose+, Amstel 95, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Purpose Megatrends

Develop a global

partnership for develop-

ment

Eradicate extreme hunger

Achieve universal primary education Ensure

environ-mental sustaina-bility

Improve maternal health

Combat HIV/AIDS/Malaria and other

diseases

Reduce child

mortalityPromote gender

equality and empower women Improve

people’s subjective well-being

Eradicate extreme poverty

Trends: global partnership

Countries are already starting to ‘quantify’ purpose through MDGs...

Source: The Millennium Development Goals Report, 2015 (UN)

19

62

30

126

48

1913

2

64

79

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2003 2006 2013

0 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 22

Number of indicator series with at least two data points

Proportion of countries and territories in the developing regions with at least two data points for 22 selected MDG indicators

...but together we’re not giving enough of our wealth away to actually reach the targets set by the UN

0.70%

0.23%

0.29%

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

UN Target Actual, 2002 Actual, 2012

% of Gross National Income

UN Target Actual, 2002 Actual, 2012

Source: OECD, UN

Note: The UK, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Luxembourg generally exceed the 0,7% target

Develop a global


ment






diseases

Reduce child





Trends: hunger

The amount of undernourished people is dropping fast – but still 1 in every 9 humans doesn’t have enough to eat on a daily basis

Source: UN MDG report 2015

991 991926 902 940 927

843 793 780

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Number of undernourished people on the planet, millions

23%22% 20%

18% 18% 17%15%

14%13%

00%

05%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Proportion of undernourished people on the planet, %

Common obstacles to reach lower numbers: volatile commodity prices, higher food and energy prices, rising unemployment, economic

recessions and extreme weather events.

Absolute number of undernourished people, millions Proportion of undernourished people, %

Develop a global


ment






diseases

Reduce child





Trends: poverty

The decline in poverty has been staggering in absolute terms, with over ~1 billion people lifted out of poverty in ~25 years


1926 1939

1754 17511632

13711255

1011

836

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Number of people living on less than 1,25 dollar a day worldwide, millions

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2015 (projection)

This decline is visible regardless of the population growth


1990

2015

47%

14%

Amount of people living in extreme poverty, percentage of global population, 1990 and 2015

7,4 billion people

5,3 billion people

The decline in poverty has not led to equal outcomes for all;inequality is on the rise

Source: Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, 2013;; Angus Deaton, The Great Escape (2013)

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Share of top decile in national income

Share of top decile in total income (incl. capital gains)

Excl. capital gains

The distribution of the world output, 1700-2012

Employment opportunities are not rising fast enough – since they are being outpaced by the growing labour force


41%

47%

58%

58%

57%

63%

67%

74%

67%

43%

46%

53%

60%

62%

65%

67%

68%

68%

Northern Africa

Western Asia

Southern Asia

Caucasus and Central Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

South-Eastern Asia

Eastern Asia

Oceania

2015 projection 1991

Employment-to-population ratio

Global employment-to-population rate has fallen from 62% to 60%;;

204 million people are still unemployed in 2015.

Youth unemployment rate is almost three times higher than that of adults.

Develop a global


ment






diseases

Reduce child





Trends: education

More children are enrolled in school than ever before in our history...


52%

87%

93%

75%

84%

69%

97%

80%

60%

94%

93%

95%

80%

86%

96%

90%

80%

94%

94%

95%

95%

95%

95%

97%

99%

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America and the Carribean

South-Eastern Asia

Caucaus and Central Asia*

Southern Asia

Western Asia

Oceania*

Eastern Asia

Northern Africa

1990

2000

2015 projection

Adjusted net enrolment rate in primary education; 97% is usual treshold for ‘universal education’

* Missing data not available

...but despite the progress still 57 million children are not in school at this point in time


2000

2015

From 100 million out-of-school children…

…to 57 million million out-of-school children

The number of out-of-school children all live in developing regions...


Number of out-of-school children of primary school age, millions, world compared to developing regions

103.999.8

57.8 56.7

100.6 97.5

55.2 53.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2012 2015 (projected)

World Developing regions

Children from the poorest households are 4 times more likely to be out of school as children in

the richest households.

Disability is a major factor: in India more than 1 in 3 disabled children aged 6-13 are out of school.

...and boys getting more school hours than girls

7.37

7.67

7.27

6.54

5.78

5.15

0 5 10 15

15

25

35

45

55

65

Age groups on vertical axis, average amount of education years on horizontal axis

8.26

8.61

8.23

7.64

6.73

5.99

0 5 10 15

15

25

35

45

55

65

9.87

10.21

9.72

9.14

8.42

7.49

0 5 10 15

15

25

35

45

55

65

6.63

6.42

5.87

5.07

4.42

4.25

0 5 10 15

15

25

35

45

55

65

7.66

7.37

6.8

6.09

5.15

4.49

0 5 10 15

15

25

35

45

55

65

9.49

9.09

8.23

7.46

6.74

5.97

0 5 10 15

15

25

35

45

55

65

In 1990… …in 2000… …and in 2015

Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington VizHub (2015)

Conflicts are a huge risk and have forced ~60 million people out of their homes in 2014 alone – with a huge impact on education


Number of forcibly displaced persons, 2000-2014, millions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

People, millions

Internally displaced persons Refugees and asylum seekers

By the end of 2014, ~60 million people were displaced. This isthe highest level recorded

since WWII.

Chilldren accounted for half of the global refugee population in 2014;; the highest

proportion in 10 years.

Develop a global


ment






diseases

Reduce child





Trends: equality

Women remain at a disadvantage in the labour market...


Distribution of working-age women and men (aged 15 and above) by labour force participation and employed women and men by status in employment, 2015

47%

72%

3%

4%50%

23%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Women Men

Employed Unemployed Economically inactive

Fewer women participate in the labour market… …and they spend more time on family work than men

18%7%

29%37%

2% 4%

52% 52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Women Men

Wage and salaried workers EmployersOwn-account workers Contributing family workers

...and although they gained new ground in parliamentary representation in 90% of the countries in the last 20 years –still just 1 in 5 are women


90% 10%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Countries where women have gained ground in parliamentsCountries where women have not gained ground in parliaments2

20%

80%

Women Men

Develop a global


ment






diseases

Reduce child





Trends: sustainability

Energy consumption is on the rise globally, as well as per person

Source: WHO

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Terawatt*hours

Total energy consumption in Terawatt*hours

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Terawatt*hours

Average kWh per person per day

Global use of energy is rising… …and this is partly because people individually use more*

* And partly due to population growth.

Most scenario’s for the future predict a temperature rise by the end of the century of at least 2C°

Source: IPCC scenario’s, 2007;; Information is Beautiful database ‘Gigatons CO2’;; Rahmstorf, Foster, Cazenave (2012), Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011

0 1 2 3 4 5

Rapid but green growth towards a service economy + clean energy

Globalisation and rapid economic growth;; emphasis on non-fossil

energy sources

Intermediate growth, less rapid technological change

Globalisation and rapid economic growth;; balance between different

energy sources

Independent nations, regionally orientated development

Globalisation and rapid economic growth;; fossil-fuel intensive

development

B1A1T

B2A1B

A2A1FI

Temp in 2090-99, °C higher than 1980-99

The three IEA scenario’s, published in 2012...0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Current trends continue

Countries stick to recent pledges to limit emissions

Energy-related CO2 emissions are cut by half by 2050 (compared with

2009) and continue to fall afterwards

Pessimistic

Middle

Optimistic

Long term By 2100

...and the IPCC scenario’s, 2007

Safe limit

* Estimated upper barrier to stay relatively safe** Estimated IPCC projections are closely matched by reality so far;; except sea level rise goes faster than predicted

...which will cause severe damage to our planet and our species

+0,8C° +1,5C° +2C° +3-4C° +5-6C°

Sea level rise by 2100*

Cities drowned

Corn & wheat yields

% more heavy rain over land

% increase power hurricanes

Species at risk of extinction

Happened Inevitable ‘Safe limit’ Tipping point Nightmare

0.85 1.04 1.24 1.43

-10%-20%

-35%

07% 13%23%

39%

Source: Information is Beautiful database ‘Gigatons CO2’;; Rahmstorf, Foster, Cazenave (2012), Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011

Amsterdam New York Bangkok

?

08% 15%26%

41%

30%40% ?

* Note that the sea level has steadily been rising by ~3,2mm per year from 1993-2011

We have way more energy ‘stored to release’ than our environment can safely handle, and energy firms will play a large role

1970

Fossil fuel reserves of energy

companies;; 760 Gigatons

Remaining reserves that could be developed;; 780 Gigatons

Other reserves (incl. state-owned);; 1320 Gigatons

850

The amount of CO2 we have released since 1850...

...the amount we could safely* release: our carbon budget...

...and the amount that is left to release within current reserves (2860 Gigatons).

* Before 2015 and still have an 80% chance of staying below 2C°warmingSource: IPCC scenario’s, 2007;; Information is Beautiful database ‘Gigatons CO2’

CO2 emissions in the developing regions rise fast

Source: UN MDG Report, 2015

21.6

6.7

14.9

23.8

9.9

13.9

33

19.8

13.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

World Developing regions Developed regions

Billionsof metrictons, carbon dioxide

1990 2000 2012

Emissions of carbon dioxide, 1990, 2000 and 2012*, in billions of metric tons

* data for 2012 are preliminary estimates.

Increase of 100% in the last ~12 years

Decrease of ~6% in last ~12 years

There are many theoretical climate change solutions that could work, but they are not undertaken due to many reasons

Source: dataset provided by David McCandless, Knowledge is Beautiful

Ratings on methods to combat global warming, the Royal Society, 2009

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

CCS at source

Carbon taxes with trade monitoring

Afforestation

Stratospheric aerosols

CO2 air capture

Enhanced weathering

BECS

Cloud albedo

Surface albedo (urban)

Space reflectors

Biochar

Surface albedo (desert)

Ocean fertilisation

Effectiveness

Affordability

Timeliness

Safety

We face a severe extinction of species if we continue on our path – with predictions showing huge amounts of species threatened

36%

14%

56%

42%

21%

13%

31%

39%

25%

13%

41% 41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Mammals Birds Amphibians Gymnosperms (plant species)

Number of threatened species*, %

Upper estimate, % Lower estimate, % Best estimate, %

Source: IUCN Red List

* Most species are not covered well enough to provide useful data;; out of the 23 species on the list, just 5 have sufficient data coverage** Threatened: either critically endangered, endangered or vulnerable

We will face tipping points within the next decades on non-renewables when usage remains constant

Source: Information is Beautiful (2012)

175

85

65

41

35

35

80

54

43

28

24

9

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Rainforests

Coral reefs

Agricultural land

Coal

Gas

Oil

Phosphorus

Tantalum

Titanium

Uranium

Copper

Indium

Remainder of years for non-renewables, from 2015

2050: 1/3 of land, plant, andanimals species extinct due

to climate change.

0 = 2015, calculations assume fixed % yearly consumption rate

2060: dangerous tippingpoint of 2C global warming.

End of Brazilian rainforest. Indonesia will be deforested~100 years earlier already.

Develop a global


ment






diseases

Reduce child





Trends: subjective well-being

On our planet, roughly 17% is flourishing

61%44%

40%39%39%

37%37%36%

34%34%

7%7%6%6%6%5%5%

3%1%1%

PanamaCosta RicaDenmarkAustriaBrazil

UruquayEl SalvadorSweden

GuatemalaCanada

GeorgiaCroatiaBenin

UgandaMadagascar

ChadCongoHaïti

AfghanistanSyria

Flourishing in 3+ elements

17% on average globally

Source: Gallup, State of Global Well-Being, 2015

We tend to be quite pessimistic in developing countries about our future, and more optimistic about our future in emerging economies

58%

60%

61%

64%

64%

68%

72%

66%

85%

34%

32%

31%

27%

26%

25%

18%

15%

14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Germany

US

Spain

Canada

Australia

UK

Japan

Italy

France

Worse off Better off

When children today grow up, will they be ... financially than their parents?*

Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey. Q6.

7%

5%

11%

18%

16%

21%

35%

34%

18%

91%

86%

84%

74%

67%

65%

61%

55%

51%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Vietnam

China

Nigeria

India

Chile

Peru

Brazil

Argentina

Indonesia

Worse off Better off

Advanced economies... ...and emerging economies

* Note that numbers don’t add to 100 due to not showing of the ‘same’ category.

Develop a global


ment






diseases

Reduce child





Trends: combat diseases

Millions of deaths per year on our planet occur due to diseases we know how to treat – but don’t spend enough money on

Source: World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory Data Repository – as mentioned by Angus Deaton in The Great Escape (2013)

Millions of deaths in 2008, based on income category quartiles (only bottom and top quartile shown)

1.07

0.730.8

0.76

0.40.48

0.120.17 0.16

0.35

0.02 0.04 0.02 0.01 0 0 0.02 00

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Respiratory infections*

Perinatal deaths**

Diarrheal disease

HIV/aids Tuberculose Malaria Childhood diseases***

Nutritional deficiencies

Maternal mortality

Low-income High-income

* E.g. pneumonia, bronchitis, influenza** Deaths of children at birth or immediately thereafter*** Whooping cough, diphtheria, polio, measles and tetanus

Total amount of preventable deaths annually if income gap was overcome: 4,23

million

We have had some successes with malaria – with more than 900 million insecticide-treated nets delivered to countries


Proportion of children under age five sleeping under insecticide-treated nets*, 2001 and 2013

* Insecticide-treated nets are one of the best interventions to prevent malaria

1% 1% 1% 1%

9%2% 2%

15%

2% 1% 1% 0%3%

7%2% 4%

17%20%

37%41% 41% 43%

46% 47% 49%54% 56%

62%66%

70% 72% 74%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Around 2001 Around 2013

Some diseases have been eradicated, but we now face different opponents on the road to longevity

-100.00% -100.00%

-82.00% -78.00%

-51.00% -51.00%

-7.00%

27.00%35.00%

-120.00%

-100.00%

-80.00%

-60.00%

-40.00%

-20.00%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

Smallpox Rinderpest Measles Tetanus Rabies Whooping cough

COPD Stroke Coronary heart disease

Change in number of deaths, compared to 1990

Source: WHO

Complete eradication*

* Other diseases that are deemed eradicable are Polio and Guinea Worm Disease. Potentially eradicable are Measles, Mumps, Rubella, Lymphatic Filariasis and Pork Tapeworm.

Most of the healthy living years lost (DALYs) are due to ischemic heart disease (IHD), strokes, back & neck problems and lung infections (LRI)

Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington VizHub (2015)

Note that HIV and Diabetes are smaller factors – but they are growing at the moment with 5,1% and 1,7% annually (1990-2013)

Develop a global


ment






diseases

Reduce child





Trends: maternal health

Global maternal mortality has declined by 45% worldwide, with thegreatest reduction in the last 15 years

Source: The Millennium Development Goals Report, 2015 (UN), Purpose+ database

380

330

210

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 2000 2013

1990 2000 2013

Develop a global


ment






diseases

Reduce child





Trends: child mortality

We live longer today than ever before in our history, but much of the numbers have to do with reduced child mortality...

20

26 2825 26 26

31

49

6771

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Life expectancy

Source: Galor et al. (2007) The Neolithic Revolution and Contemporary Variations in Life Expectancy; www.ourworldindata.org; Frier (2001) More is worse: some observations on the population of the Roman empire; www.wikipedia.org; CIA The World Factbook; WHO.

Partly due to child mortality rates;; where 300-

500 per 1,000 was ‘normal’...

In industrialized countries child mortality is below 5/1000 today!

...which has made great final progress in the last 25 years


179

54

71

73

126

65

74

53

73

86

17

27

33

50

23

51

11

24

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America and the Carribean

South-Eastern Asia

Caucaus and Central Asia*

Southern Asia

Western Asia

Oceania

Eastern Asia

Northern Africa

1990 2015

Under-five mortality rate, 1990 and 2015, deaths per 1,000 births

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