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Transcript of MEGATRENDS FREM MOD 2030 - Aarhus · PDF file MEGATRENDS Megatrends are major pathways of...

  • MEGATRENDS FREM MOD 2030 Lasse Jonasson, direktør ved Institut for Fremtidsforskning

  • (Source: Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies)

    AMERICAN LIFESTYLE MAGAZINE 1950 Imagining how it is to live in the year 2000

    Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

  • The “Expert Problem“

    Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

    “The more expert—or at least

    the more educated— a

    person is, the less likely that

    person is to see a solution

    when it is not within the

    framework in which he or she

    was taught to think.”

    Herman Kahn Futurist & Military Strategist

    Rand Corp. & Hudson Institute

  • “In 50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure”

    - Times of London, 1894

    Avoid blind forecast – development is rarely linear!

    Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

    From Megatrends and Scenarios to Strategy

  • Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

    Fremtiden opstår som summen af forskelligartede drivkræfter

    Enablers Turners & blockers

    Driver

    Driver

    Driver

    Outcome

    Outcome

    Outcome

    F R

    IC T

    IO N

    Time

  • ”I am not an economist, but I do believe we are growing.” (George W. Bush, Former President of the United States, 2008)

    Why wishful thinking is rarely enough.

    Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

    From Megatrends and Scenarios to Strategy

  • En struktureret tilgang til fremtiden

    FREMTIDSFORSKNING.

    Det meste af hvad vi har

    brug for at vide for at tage

    gode beslutninger i dag, er

    uden for vores

    forståelsesramme – vi ved

    ikke hvad vi ikke ved.

    Vores viden handler om

    fortiden, men alle vores

    beslutninger handler om

    fremtiden.

    Hvad vi ikke ved, vi ikke ved

    Hvad vi ikke ved, vi ved

    Hvad vi ved, vi ved

    Hvad vi ved, vi ikke ved

    Viden Uvidenhed

    Uvidenhed

    Viden

    Hvad der er at vide

    H v a

    d v i

    fo rs

    tå r

    Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

  • Technology Development

    The application of knowledge or science to commerce or

    industrial processes. Both the innovation and diffusion of

    technologies.

    Knowledge Society

    Increasingly educated populations and growing

    economic value of knowledge where skills,

    information, and data constitute primary

    economic assets.

    MEGATRENDS

    Megatrends are major pathways of development, global in scope, and have a

    lifetime of at least 10-15 years.

    While megatrends are expected trajectories, do not expect the development to occur

    linearly.

    Acceleration & Complexity Shortening business, innovation, and product

    life-cycles with greater industry convergence.

    Polarisation

    Growing gap between extremes, such as

    top and bottom market segments, at the

    expense of the middle segment.

    Individualisation Increasing desire for personalized products

    and services that directly conform to the needs

    and interests of any particular user or

    business.

    Immaterialisation Changes in our perceptions and our

    values that includes a greater focus on

    experience and personal transformation.

    Network Society A modern society and operating environment where

    networks are shaping social interactions and

    organizational structures.

    Demographic Development Measurable changes in demography covering distribution and size in

    human population – including urbanization, ageing, ethnicity & religion and

    family composition.

    Economic Growth

    Overall increase in productivity and subsequent

    growth of wealth at a global scale.

    Globalisation The process of interaction and integration among

    the people, culture, companies, industries and

    governments of different nations.

    Sustainability &

    Climate Change

    A growing focus on the interconnectedness of

    product life-cycles and the consequences of

    our production-distribution-consumption

    practices on our planet.

    Focus on Health Global orientation towards health and well-being,

    transcending all aspects of public, private, personal

    and professional lives, and moving from treatment to

    prevention.

    Commercialisation Increasing areas in society, the public sector

    and aspects of our everyday lives becoming

    commercialized and commodified.

    Democratisation

    A process of transformation in which equality, access, and

    transparency are improved by accountability,

    decentralization, empowerment and openness. Page 8

  • Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies

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    DK-1256 Copenhagen K

    +45 3311 7176

    [email protected]

    Copyright 2018. All rights reserved.

    This material is only to be shared with the intended recipient.Page 9