The 2012 Update of Our Future WorldGlobal MegatrendsDr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist

Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy

The Megatrends

1. More From Less

It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.

- Neil Armstrong

Food

Water 1.2 billion people in regions with insufficient water

1.6 billion people in water-scarce river basins with inadequate capacity to develop

International Water Management Institute

Energy

Data source: International Energy Agency, 2011

Minerals

Source: Mudd GM, 2009. The Sustainability of Mining in Australia: Key Production Trends and Their Environmental Implications for the Future. Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University and Mineral Policy Institute.

2. Going, Going … Gone?

The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will almost certainly be determined during the next 50–100 years by the activities of a single species.

Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.

Going, Going… Gone?

Going, Going … Gone?

Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

Going, Going … Gone?Red List

Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 11

Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

Red List Extinction Risk Index

1 = No concern

0 = Extinct

Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

3. The Silk Highway

The Silk HighwayIt’s Been So Good in Australia (comparatively)

Data source: World Bank

The Silk HighwayA Shifting World Economy

Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy

The Silk HighwayMaking Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years

Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 16Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn

Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database

4. Forever YoungAs you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands, one for helping yourself, the other for helping others.

- Audrey Hepburn

Forever YoungThe Ageing Population – Australia

Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old

It will be 25% by 2050

Forever YoungRetirement Savings Gap – Tapered Retirement

Source: Rice Warner

Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

Forever YoungDiabetes and Overweight Projections

Data Source: World Masters Association

Forever YoungWanting to Stay Active and Engaged

Toronto, Canada

Aalborg, Aarhus & Herning Denmark

Brisbane, Australia

Portland, Oregon, USA

Melbourne, Australia

Edmonton, Canada

Sydney, Australia

5. Virtually Here

Virtually HereThe Growth of Online Retail

Online as a Percentage of Total Retail Sales

2012 20155.1 % 10%

National Australia Bank report a 29% increase in online retail sales in 2011.

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Source: Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics

Virtually HereCatch me if you can – New models of retail

Image Source: Flickr.com

Tescos Virtual Grocery Walls

Virtually HereThe Work (Live?) Anywhere City

Currently 6% of Australian workers telecommute, 11% in the US and 10% in Europe (Access Economics).

The Australian Government aims to increase teleworking to 12% of the workforce (DCDBE).

In Queensland 58% of employees (1.1 million people) have a flexible work arrangement of some type. This includes 13.3% (253,000 people) working from home.

Virtually HereThe Offshoring Trend

Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM

Virtually HereThe Offshoring Trend

In Australia they cost $10,000 to $20,000 per month

6. Great ExpectationsNow, I return to this young fellow. And the communication I have got to make is, that he has great expectations.

- Charles Dickens

Great ExpectationsMaslow’s Hierarchy

Esteem – confidence, achievement, respect of others, respect by others

Love and belonging – Friendships, family, partnering

Safety – Shelter, personal security, productive employment, health, property

Physiological Needs – Eating, Sleeping, Breathing, Drinking

Self

Actualization -

Morality, creativity, spontaneity, problem

solving, lack of prejudice, acceptance of facts

Great ExpectationsDeclining Material Consumption

Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

Published studies showing materialism is detrimental to well being:1985 - Journal of Consumer Research

1992 - Journal of Consumer Research

1993 - Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining Behavior

1993 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

2003 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

2007 - Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal

2007 - Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology

2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology

Published studies showing buying life-experiences improves well being2010 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology

2009 - Journal of Research in Personality

2003 – Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

Great ExpectationsThe Jury is out - Experiences make us happier

Great ExpectationsUtility - A non-linear relationship

Beers (schooners)

Happiness (utility)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Not likely

More likely

Great ExpectationsIncreasing Importance of the “Whole Package”

Source: Fair Trade Australia and New Zealand

Fair Trade Logo Sales Revenue – The Moral Dimension

Basic Expectations

24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990)

33% of people in urban slums

15.5 percent of the world’s population (1 billion) hungry

United Nations, 2012

Thank youDr Stefan HajkowiczLeader – CSIRO Futures | Principal Scientistt +61 7 3833 5540e stefan.hajkowicz@csiro.auw www.csiro.au

CSIRO FUTURES