2010 telecom megatrends

2010 Telecom Megatrends

Sylvain Lamblot

Oct 2010

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Do not add objects or text in the footer area Sylvain Lamblot | 2010-08-10 |

Before to start

http://www.personalizemedia.com/media/socmedcounter.swf

Telecom industry is changing


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Could you imagine few years ago?

Finland makes

1Mb broadband access

a legal right


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All you can eat MUSIC for

10€ / month

TelecoM Mega trends in a Nutshell


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The rise of Mobile

7 Billions

Global operators’ revenues

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2009 2012 2015

Su

bsc

riptio

ns

(mill

ion

)Fixed

Mobile

Global BB subscriptions

Source: Ericsson 2010

Mobile data, incl. mobile

PC access & SMS

Mobile voice

Fixed corporate dataservices

Fixed broadband

Fixed VoIP

IPTV

Fixed narrowband voice

Mob

ileF

ixed

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2009 2012 2015

BU

SD

4000

The rise of Mobile Broadband


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The rise of 4g


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The rise of AppStores


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And new problems!


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The rise of recommandation


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The rise of In-app purchase


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The rise of SOCIAL


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The rise of Design & SIMPLICITY


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The rise of the machines


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The rise of new business model


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The rise of User Generated content


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The rise of the long tail

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Abf8ySWVJuA

Long tail 101

3 mn


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The rise of Open


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The rise of developpers


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The rise of mobile OS fragmentation

http://www.visionmobile.com/blog/2010/11/infographic-the-mobile-developer-journey/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+Visionmobile+(VisionMobile+Forum)


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The rise of Streaming


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The rise of Brokering

Adress the Many to Many challenge


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The traffic avalanche

Source: Morgan Stanley, 2010


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The rise of mobile tiered plan


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The CONSOLIDATIONTOP 20 players coNtrol 2/3 of global revenues 2009E

5%

4%

4%3%2%2%2%2%2%

2%2%

2%1%

1%1% 4%

5%

7%

7%

8%

32%

AT&T

NTT

Verizon

DT

Telefonica

FT

Vodafone

China MobileNTT DoCoMoVivendiBT

Sprint Nextel

China Telecom

SoftbankAmerica Movil

Telstra

China UnicomKPN

KDDITI

Others

Total revenues: 1616 BUSDTop 20 players: 1095 (~68%)

1990 2010E

ConsolidationMobile entry

Deregulation

2000

60%

Top 20 share of telecom services

revenues

~75% ~70%

100%

Sources: Ericsson analysis, Reuters data (2010)


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A handful of players dominate the market

› Emerging markets giants increasingly present in top 20› Continued consolidation defends market share and core business profitability› Internet / device giants – comparably high performance and high future expectations

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Revenues 2009 (BUSD)

EB

IT 2

009

(BU

SD

)

AT&T

NTT

Verizon

DT

Telefonica

China Mobile

Vodafone

FT

NTT DoCoMo

Microsoft

Apple

Google

Sprint Nextel

KDDI

Vivendi

TI

China Telecom

America Movil

Softbank

KPN

Telstra

China Unico

m

BT

EBIT>17%

EBIT<17%

Top 20 operators 17% EBIT (weighted

average)

20 largest operators by revenue and EBIT (blue circles)

Market cap size

Sources: Ericsson analysis, Reuters data (2010)


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GROWTH PROFITABILITY

The operators Challenge: Find Profitable growth and optimize investments

MATURING MARKETS WILL PRESSURE ALREADY LOW MARGINS

Sources: Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix; Cowen & Co.; NCC; CIA World Factbook; Credo research and analysis


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The rise of CFO

Revenue

sharingCentral

procurement

SaaS model

CAPEX & GDP


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New ways of selling

ConsultantTrial

Demo

Telepresence

Partnership

Reccurent

revenues

SaaS pricing

CONCLUSION 2/2


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Acquisitions or not?

Sum of acquisitions from 2008-2009 YTD1

More than 70 multimedia related acquisitions 2008-2009 and >60 acquisitions in OSS/BSS market during 2007-20082

2

1

0

2

2

55

0

3

5

00

11

0

0

2

5

26

0

4

1

11

23

3

1

10

0

7

0

24

6

9

0

83

0

11

0

Qualcomm 72

20

Multimedia relatedOther acquisitionsMultimedia relatedOther acquisitions Total number of acquisitions


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11 factors

Impacting

Operators

11 factors

Open with


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Where are we?

http://www.personalizemedia.com/media/socmedcounter.swf


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2010 telecom megatrends

Technology

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