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  • The 2012 Update of Our Future World

    Global Megatrends

    Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist

    Stefan Hajkowicz

  • Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 2

    “Imagination is

    more important

    than knowledge”

    - Albert Einstein

    Source: Wikimedia Commons

  • Different Types of Futures

    Source: Voros (2003) adapted this diagram from Hancock and Bezold (1994) in the Healthcare Forum Journal

    Now Probable

    Plausible

    Possible

    The Future

  • More Than Forecasting

    Lynch, 2002. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.

    Actual oil price (other

    lines show predictions)

  • Megatrends

  • It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put

    up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth.

    I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small.

    - Neil Armstrong

    1. More From Less

  • More From Less World Population Growth

    The world population is forecast to

    grow from

    7.2 billion persons today

    to

    8.1 billion in 2025

    and

    9.6 billion by 2050

    Source: United Nations

  • More From Less Food Price Movements

    Source: World Bank

    -

    50

    100

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    200

    250

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    2007/08

    Price Spike Between 75 - 130

    million people

    became

    malnourished

    (Headey, 2011).

    Feb 2011

    Highest

    on record

    From 2003 to 2007, the number

    of undernourished people

    increased from some 848 million

    to 923 million, largely because of

    the food-price crisis during this

    period (FAO, 2008).

  • More From Less

    Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 9

    More From Less Agricultural Land

    Estimated that 12 million

    hectares of productive

    agricultural land, capable of

    producing 20 million tonnes of

    grain, lost each year to land

    degradation (United Nations,

    2011).

    Image Source: NASA Terra Satellite

  • More From Less The best remedy for high food prices might be high food prices?

    Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    0

    5

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    11

    Glo

    bal

    Cer

    eals

    Pri

    ce In

    dex

    Au

    stra

    lian

    Wh

    eat

    Pro

    du

    ctio

    n (

    mill

    ion

    s o

    f to

    nn

    es)

    Australian Wheat Production (Millions of Tonnes)

    Global Cereal Price Index

    Wheat Production Trendline

    Cereal Price Trendline

  • 0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    0

    50

    100

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    200

    250199

    0

    199

    2

    199

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    199

    8

    200

    0

    20

    02

    20

    04

    200

    6

    200

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    0

    World C

    rude O

    il P

    rice(U

    SD

    per

    Barr

    el,

    Weig

    hte

    d b

    y e

    xport

    volu

    me)

    FA

    O F

    ood P

    rice Index

    Food Price

    Crude Oil Price

    More From Less Oil Prices and Food Prices

  • More From Less Oil Prices and Food Prices

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

    US

    Do

    llars

    Per

    Bar

    rel

    Average Crude Oil Price(US$/bbl)

  • More From Less Energy

    Data source: International Energy Agency, 2011

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Otherrenewables

    Wo

    rld

    En

    ergy

    Use

    age

    (Mto

    e)

    2009

    Current Policies 2035

  • More From Less Water Scarcity

  • More From Less Gold Ore Grade

    Data Source: United Nations Environment Program 2011, Metal Recycling Report

    2010 1990 1970 1950 1930 1910 1890 1870 1850 1835

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    Go

    ld O

    re G

    rad

    e (

    g/t

    Au

    )

  • More From Less Extent of Mineral Resources in Emerging Economies

    Data Source: United States Geological Survey (2012)

  • 2. Going, Going … Gone?

  • The fate of biological diversity for the next 10 million years will almost certainly be determined during the next 50–100 years by the activities of a single species.

    Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.

    Going, Going… Gone?

  • Going, Going … Gone?

    Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

  • Going, Going … Gone? Red List

    Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 20

    Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

    Red List Extinction

    Risk Index

    1 = No concern

    0 = Extinct

  • Going, Going ... Gone? Staying Put

    Data Source: Global Biodiversity Outlook 3, Secretariat on the Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010

  • 3. The Silk Highway

  • The Silk Highway The Last 10 Years Have Been Good Down Under

    Source: World Bank

    -5

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    20

    01

    20

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    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11GD

    P G

    row

    th R

    ate

    (%)

    OECD members

    Australia

    0

    1

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    11

    Un

    emp

    loym

    ent

    (%)

    OECD members

    Australia

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    Deb

    t to

    GD

    P (

    %) OECD members Australia

    0

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    1

    1.2

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    Exch

    ange

    Rat

    e

  • The Silk Highway A Shifting World Economy

    Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy

  • The Silk Highway Making Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400 Years

    Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 25 Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn

    Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database

    http://www.upla.cn/

  • The Silk Highway An Economy in Transition?

    Source: The Reserve Bank of Australia

  • More From Less From selling ingots to selling ideas

    Source: Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society; Treado (2009)

    0

    2

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    Chicago Pittsburgh Detroit Cleveland

    Shar

    e o

    f U

    S To

    tal i

    n 2

    00

    3 (

    per

    cen

    t)

    Share of Steel Making Capacity

    Share of Steel Technology Firms

  • 4. Forever Young

    As you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands, one for helping yourself, the other for helping others.

    - Audrey Hepburn

  • Forever Young The Ageing Population – Australia

    Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

    Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old

    It will be 25% by 2050

  • Forever Young The Ageing Population in Japan

    By 2050

    Japan’s

    population will

    be 40% over

    70 years old

  • Forever Young Retirement Savings Gap – Tapered Retirement

    Source: Rice Warner

  • Forever Young The Rise of Chronic Illness

    In 2002 59% of

    deaths

    worldwide were

    from non-

    communicable

    illness.

    It will be 69% in

    2030.

    Source: Mathers and Loncar, 2006.

  • Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

    Forever Young Diabetes and Overweight Projections

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

    Pro

    po

    rtio

    n o

    f to

    tal p

    op

    ula

    tio

    n

    ove

    rwei

    ght

    USA England

    Spain

    Austria

    France

    Australia

    Canada

    Korea

    Italy

  • Data Source: World Masters Association

    Forever Young Wanting to Stay Active and Engaged

    0

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    20,000

    25,000

    30,000

    35,000

    1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

    Toronto, Canada

    Aalborg, Aarhus &

    Herning Denmark

    Brisbane,

    Australia

    Portland,

    Oregon,

    USA

    Melbourne,

    Australia

    Edmonton,

    Canada

    Sydney,

    Australia

    Num

    ber

    of C

    om

    petito

    rs

  • 5. Virtually Here

  • In 2009 United Airlines denied a damages claim made by a guitarist. He subsequently uploaded a song on youtube “United Breaks Guitars”. It was viewed over 12 million times. As it went viral the airline’s stock dropped 10% costing US$180 million. Data source: World Economic Forum, Global Risk Reports

    Image source: Wikimedia

    Virtually Here The New Public Relations Challenge

  • Virtually Here The Growth of Online Retail

    Online as a Percentage

    of Total Retail Sales

    2012 2015

    10 % 15%

    National Australia Bank report a 29% increase in online retail sales in 2011.

    Reta

    il S

    ale

    s V

    olu

    me

    Source: Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics

  • Virtually Here Catch me if you can – New models of retail

    Image Source: Flickr.com and The Age

    Tescos Virtual Grocery Walls,

    South Korea, 2011

    Woolworths Virtual Grocery

    Walls, Sydney, 2012

    The Age

  • Virtually Here The Work (Live?) Anywhere City

    In Queensland 58% of employees (1.1 million people) have a flexible work arrangement

    of some type. This includes 13.3% (253,000 people) working from home.

  • Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend

    Data Source: BCG, OECD, NASSCOM

  • Virtually Here The Offshoring Trend

    In Australia they

    cost $10,000 to

    $20,000 per month

  • Virtually Here Automation Outside

    the Factory

    Image Source:

    Wikipedia Commons

  • 6. Great

    Expectations Now, I return to this young fellow.

    And the communication I have got to

    make is, that he has great

    expectations.

    - Charles Dickens

  • Great Expectations Maslow’s Hierarchy

    Esteem – confidence, achievement, respect of others, respect by others

    Love and belonging – Friendships, family, partnering

    Safety – Shelter, personal security, productive employment, health, property

    Physiological Needs – Eating, Sleeping, Breathing, Drinking

    Self

    Actualization -

    Morality, creativity, spontaneity, problem

    solving, lack of prejudice, acceptance of facts

  • Great Expectations Declining Material Consumption

    $0

    $5,000

    $10,000

    $15,000

    $20,000

    $25,000

    $30,000

    $35,000

    16

    17

    18

    19

    20

    21

    1980 1990 2000 2008

    Ave

    rage

    GD

    P P

    er C

    apit

    a fo

    r G

    8

    Co

    un

    trie

    s (e

    xclu

    din

    g R

    uss

    ia)

    in

    20

    00

    USD

    Mat

    eria

    l Co

    nsu

    mp

    tio

    n (

    met

    ric

    ton

    nes

    per

    cap

    ita)

    Domestic Material Consumption

    Income (GDP Per Capita)

    Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

  • Great Expectations Relative Decoupling

    Data Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

    Ratio of materials to GDP

  • Published studies showing materialism is detrimental to well being:

    1985 - Journal of Consumer Research

    1992 - Journal of Consumer Research

    1993 - Journal of Consumer Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining Behavior

    1993 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

    2003 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

    2007 - Family and Consumer Sciences Research Journal

    2007 - Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology

    2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology

    Published studies showing buying life-experiences improves well being

    2010 - Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

    2009 - The Journal of Positive Psychology

    2009 - Journal of Research in Personality

    2003 – Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

    Great Expectations The Jury is out - Experiences make us happier

  • Great Expectations Utility - A non-linear relationship

    Beers (schooners)

    Happiness

    (utility)

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

    K

    Not likely

    More likely

  • Experiencing the Experience Economy Joseph Pine and James Gilmore

  • Great Expectations Increasing Importance of the “Whole Package”

    Source: Fair Trade Australia and New Zealand

    Fair Trade Logo Sales Revenue – The Moral Dimension

  • Great Expectations Social Interaction

  • Basic Expectations

    24% < US$1.25/day (47% in 1990)

    33% of people in urban slums

    15.5 percent of the world’s population (1 billion) hungry

    United Nations, 2012

  • Thank you Dr Stefan Hajkowicz

    Principal Scientist

    t +61 7 3833 5540 e [email protected] w www.csiro.au

    CSIRO FUTURES