Tele2 AB - Presentation on Citigroup TMT conference 20120320
-
Upload
tele2 -
Category
Investor Relations
-
view
2.067 -
download
5
Transcript of Tele2 AB - Presentation on Citigroup TMT conference 20120320
TELE2 COMPANYOVERVIEW20 March 2012
2
Tele2 offers cutting edge telecom products and services
Challenger telecom operator offering mobile and fixed telephony and broadband and related services
Front row player within new technology 4G
Broad range of products and services to residential and business customers
3
Tele2’s has 34 million customers in 11 national markets
Market areas
Tele2 Nordic: Sweden and Norway
Tele2 Western Europe: Netherlands, Germany and Austria
Tele2 Russia: Russia
Tele2 Central Europe & Eurasia: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Kazakhstan
Tele2 Group Financials
Sales 2011: SEK 40.8 bn
EBITDA 2011:SEK 10.9 bn
Sales Q4 2011:SEK 10.8 bn
EBITDA Q4 2011:SEK 2.9 bn
Number of customers: 34 million
4
Focus Continue grow customer base and maximize the 2G opportunity Ensure that newcomer and challenger regions reach the same operational trends as
defender regions Evaluate possibilities to expand carefully through new licenses as well as by
complementary acquisitions
Market Area Russia: Overview
Population Appr. 140 million
Tele2 Russia 43 regions of Russian Federation 20.6 million subscribers Mobile operator #4 in Russia in terms
of subscribers and revenue
Represents 28% of total net sales Q4 2011
5
Q4 Highlights Russia
Region’s position Market share EBITDA
Defender (10 regions) Leader in the region (avg. 46%)
35%(avg. 52%)
Challenger (17 regions) 20% (avg. 31%)
< 35%(avg. 31%)
Newcomer (16 regions) < 20% (avg. 17%)
≥ 0
EBITDA and EBITDA MARGIN
NET SALES and YoY NET SALES GROWTH
CUSTOMER BASE and CUSTOMER INTAKE
Moscow
SEK Million
YoY net sales growth (right)
Net sales (left)
NET SALES and YoY NET SALES GROWTH
EBITDA margin (right)
EBITDA (left) Customer base (left)
Customer net intake (right)
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 111,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
0%
8%
15%
23%
30%
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 110
400
800
1,200
1,600
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 1117,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
0
200
400
600
800ThousandsSEK Million Thousands
6
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
50
100
150
200
250
TELE2 SUBSCRIBERS AS PART OF TOTAL RUSSIAN MOBILE MARKET
The Russian mobile market
NET ADDITIONSTele2
Vimpelcom
MegaFon
MTS
MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS AND PENETRATION
Million subscribers9.1%
5.6%
Million subscribers
Tele2
Subs Penetration (%)
Thousands of subscribers
During 2011, Tele2 has gained market share
06 07 08 09 10 11 12F 13F 14F 15F50
100
150
200
250
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
7
Revenue source development
BIG4 IN TELE2 REGIONSDATA REVENUE BREAKDOWN, %
15%
30%
34%
21%15%
29%
35%
20%
Q3 Q4
ARPU DEVELOPMENT
RUB
TELE2 RUSSIA: REVENUE SPLIT Q4
VAS revenue (%)(excl. Data)
Voice revenue (%)
8,1%12,1%
80%
Data revenue (%)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 110
100
200
300
400
224
Tele2 VimpelcomMegaFon MTS
Tele2 VAS and data revenue share
of total revenue is growing and is
comparable to market level
8
Regulatory update: Tele2 Russia
• On 12 March it was announced that Roscomnadzor issued the radio frequency permission to NIIR* to deploy LTE trial on Tele2 network
• The permission is valid until 31 March which is sufficient for NIIR to complete the trial according to the approved methodology
• NIIR is expected to issue the trial results report by the end of April and it is likely to be submitted for the Q2 2012 GKRCh meeting for the decision on TN to be made
* State-owned Science and Research Institute
9
Market Area Nordic: Overview
Population 14.4 million
Tele2 Sweden and Tele2 Norway Home market and test bed for new services
Represents 42% of total net sales Q4 2011Sweden 30%; Norway 12%
Focus Sweden: Build on mobile growth and 4G roll-out coupled with household/ corporate
fiber strategy Norway: Integration of Network Norway and migration of customers to Tele2’s own
network
10
Smartphone market development
* Postpaid residential, quantity of handsets
SMARTPHONE PRICE CATEGORIES
SMARTPHONE INSTALLED BASE*
Sales of top ten mobile phones Tele2 Sweden (FY 2011)
1. iPhone 4 16GB 2. iPhone 4S 16GB3. Samsung Galaxy S24. iPhone 4 32GB5. ZTE Blade6. Sony Ericsson Cedar7. iPhone 4 8GB8. Samsung Galaxy Gio9. Sony Ericsson Xperia Arc10. Samsung Galaxy ACE
Regular handset Smartphone1106 1107 1108 1109 1110 1111 1112
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q4 2010 Q4 201150%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%
100%
High end Mid Low end
11
Growth in sales of data packages
Data package customer stock increased by 120% during 2011
DATA PACKAGE CUSTOMER STOCK 2011
Base
MOBILE SURF PACKAGES
Small
Medium LargeJan Feb Mar Apr Maj Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Subscribers
May Oct Nov Dec
12
Recent happenings
13
Tele2 Norway organisation
• After Tele2 Sweden AB acquired Network Norway in October 2011, Tele2's Norwegian operations have consolidated its position as the third largest player in the Norwegian mobile market with over 1.1 million customers
• Tele2 in Norway is building the country's third mobile network which currently has 45 percent population coverage
Brands
Subsidiary companies
Parent companyTele2
Sverige AB
Tele2 Norge AS
Network Norway AS
OneCall Network
14
Tele2 Norway integration update
• An effective overall integration process has resulted in an optimal organisational structure for Tele2 Norway in place mid October 2011
• Headcount integration synergies of 14%
• Strong joint operations established with full focus to obtain the #2 market position from NetCom (TeliaSonera)
15
Market Area Western Europe: Overview
Focus Netherlands Grow in mobile and SME Austria B2B & Integration of Silver Server Germany Grow Fixed Via Mobile product
Population106 million
Leading the group in business to business services and consumer fixed broadband
Represents 19% of total net sales Q4 2011
Netherlands 13.4%; Germany 2.5%; Austria 3.1%
16
Dutch mobile market attractiveness
• Dutch government favours competition and newcomers
- 2010: MNOs ‘capped’ in 2.6 GHz auction- 2012: specific ‘newcomer reservation’ in 800
and 900 MHz bands for non-MNOs in 800/900/1800 auction October 2012
• Adoption of mobile broadband in the Netherlands is amongst the lowest in Europe, prices amongst the highestThis will be the main growth opportunity for 4G enabling disruptive offers by a newcomer
• DifferentiationWe believe we can offer a truly distinct mobile broadband experience, enabled by LTE as a technology ‘step change’ (Dutch market standard is HSPA ≤14.4 MBps)
17
Becoming MNO is a viable long term growth option for Tele2 Netherlands, and it will also facilitate seamless, converged offerings
Tele2 NL becoming an MNO
PROS
• Tele2 Group holds experience as a mobile (LTE) operator
• Tele2 NL is an established player
• Tele2 NL has an own nationwide fiber backbone
CONS
• Uncertainty of October 2012 auction
• Securing network sharing is crucial
18
Focus Stability and improvements in Baltics Growth in revenue, profits and market share in Croatia Establish Tele2 in all regions and continue to grow rapidly in Kazakhstan
Market Area Central Europe and Eurasia: Overview
Population28 million
Represents 12% of total net sales Q4 2011
Estonia 2%; Latvia 3%; Lithuania 3%; Croatia 3%; Kazakhstan 1%
2010-10-2019
Kazakhstan mobile market overview
TELE2• The first real discounter on the
market
• Tele2 brand; Launch of region by region to offer the best price and take into consideration the region specifics and good coverage
• After Tele2 entered the market the competition level increased significantly
• The average price offered to new customers in Almaty has been reduced almost two times. Similar development in other regions of Kazakhstan
• A discount sub brand has been launched by a competitor to defend its customer base
MARKET CHARACTERISTICS
• Prepaid market dominated by two GSM operators
• Strong growth of the mobile penetration during the last years
• High transmission prices, the main player incumbent Kazakhtelecom
• Relatively low MoU (around 100 min.) compared to neighboring countries
• High interconnect rates
2010-10-2020
Frequency band Channel Technology
900 11 MHz GSM/UMTS
1800 5 MHz GSM
2100 20 MHz UMTS
Tele2 Kazakhstan organisation overview
Tele2 KZ
Tele2 AB
51% 49%
Asianet Holding
2010-10-2021
Kazakhstan mobile market division
50.3% 39.0%
6.4%4.3%
The market is dominated by two GSM operators sharing almost 90% of
customer and revenue market share
40% 32%
22%7%
CUSTOMER MARKET SHARE 2011 SHARE OF NET GROWTH 2011
Tele2 took a major part of the net growth in the Kazakh telecom market in 2011
22
Tele2 Kazakhstan launch status
City Launch Region population
Shymkent March 2012 2 600 000Taraz March 2012 1 000 000Kyzyl-Orda April 2012 700 000Atyrau April 2012 500 000
Jan Feb Mar Apr Maj Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec0
300,000
600,000
900,000
1,200,000
1,500,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Customer base (left) Customer net intake (right)
2010-10-2023
Bal. sheet consideration / Fin. leverage
Shareholder remuneration
Cash / Buffer
M&A / New growth opportunities
When available, invest in value accretive M&A or new business opportunities meeting Tele2’s
strict financial hurdles
Enhance shareholder value by distributing recurring cash to shareholders
Retain financial buffer
Prudent assessment based on (a) status of operations, (b) future strategic opportunities, (c) competitive landscape and (d) general macroeconomic status
CASH
GENERATION
2010-10-2024
Net debt and dividend targets
Shareholder remuneration“Tele2 will seek to pay a progressive ordinary dividend of no less than 50 percent of net income excluding one-off items. Extraordinary dividends and the authority to purchase Tele2’s own shares will be recommended or sought when the anticipated total return to shareholders is deemed to be greater than the achievable returns from the deployment of the capital within the group's operating segments or the acquisition of assets within Tele2’s economic requirements.”
Balance sheet“Tele2 has a target net debt to EBITDA ratio of between 1.25 and 1.75 times over the medium term. The company’s longer term financial leverage should be in line with the industry and the markets in which it operates and reflect the status of its operations, future strategic opportunities and contingent liabilities.”
25
Sources of funding Q4 2011
Revolving credit facility
Russia bond
Other financing
Off BS items
In 2012, Tele2 AB strives to diversify its sources of funding further
26
Concluding remarks
• Create a strong network based operator in Norway
• Start exploiting 4G services in Sweden
• Evaluate MNO opportunities in the Netherlands
• Complete the launch of mobile services in all regions in Kazakhstan
• Launch 6 new regions in Far East of Russia
27
Appendix
28
Group results
SEK million
Net sales
EBITDA
- EBITDA margin (%)
Depr. and joint ventures
- Depr. of Net sales (%)
One-off items
EBIT
Normalized EBIT
- Normalized EBIT margin (%)
Financial items
Taxes
Net profit/loss
Discont. operations
NET RESULT
YTD 11 YTD 10 %
40,750 40,164 1.5%
10,852 10,284 5.5%
26.6% 26.0%
-3,880 -3,580
9.6% 9.0%
-4 384
6,968 7,088 -1.7%
6,972 6,704
17.1% 16.9%
-599 -353
-1 465 -254
4,904 6,481
-7 447
4,897 6,928
Q4 11 Q4 10 %
10,839 10,109 7.2%
2,791 2,488 12.2%
25.7% 24.6%
-1,125 -975
10.4% 9.7%
-26 -157
1,640 1 ,56 20.9%
1,666 1,513
15.4% 15.0%
-60 -155
-269 -102
1,311 1,099
0 404
1,311 1,503
29
Currency movements (vs. SEK)
EUR/EUR pegged and RUB currencies represent 56% of external sales and 74% of EBITDA
YoY difference in YTD average FX rates, 2011 vs. 2010EUR -5.6 %
RUB -7.3 %
End of Q4 spot rate vs. 31/12-2010
EUR -0.6 %
RUB -3.6 %
30
Currency-adjusted sales and EBITDA
CURRENCY-ADJUSTED SALES (FY)SEK Million
CURRENCY-ADJUSTED SALESSEK Million
Q4 '10 Q4 '110
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
YTD '10 YTD '110
9,000
18,000
27,000
36,000
45,000
+ 7%
+ 8%
CURRENCY-ADJUSTED EBITDA (FY)SEK Million
CURRENCY-ADJUSTED EBITDASEK Million
Q4 '10 Q4 '110
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
+13%
YTD '10 YTD '110
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
+10%
31
Taxes
Deferred tax assets at year end amounted to SEK 2.9 (3.2) billion
Taxes in income statement (MSEK)
Normal
One-Off
Total
YTD 11 YTD 10
-1 573 -1 405
108 1 151
-1 465 -254
Q4 11 Q4 10
-377 -277
108 175
-269 -102
Taxes in cash flow statement (MSEK)
Normal
One-Off
Total
YTD 11 YTD 10
-948 -740
- -
-948 -740
Q4 11 Q4 10
-163 -160
- -
-163 -160
32
Q4 11 Q4 10
2,584 2,311
-163 -160
-106 -374
2,315 1,777
-1,400 -1,163
915 614
-1,541 - 469
Cash flow
Cash flow (SEK million)
OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Before paid tax
Paid taxes
Changes in working capital
CF from operating activities
INVESTING ACTIVITIES
CapEX
CF after CapEX
Shares and participations
YTD 11 YTD 10
10,610 10,450
-948 -740
-414 -100
9,248 9,610
-4,667 -3,603
4,581 6,007
-1,217 -1,510
33
Debt position and ratio
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 110.0
2,500.0
5,000.0
7,500.0
10,000.0
12,500.0
15,000.0
17,500.0
20,000.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Ordinary dividendExtraordinary dividend
Upper limit
Lower limit
PRO FORMA NET DEBT / EBITDA 12’M ROLLINGSEK Billion
Pro Forma Net Debt
Pro Forma Net Debt / EBITDA 12’M Rolling
Upper limit
Lower limit
34
Debt profile
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11
-5,000.0
-2,500.0
0.0
2,500.0
5,000.0
7,500.0
10,000.0
12,500.0
15,000.0
17,500.0
20,000.0
2,833.41,660.2
12,928.611,338.9
12,645.0
Revolving credit facility Russia bond Other bank loans Off BS items Cash
Pro forma net debt
SEK BillionSOURCES OF FUNDING
35
Bal. sheet consideration / Fin. leverage
Shareholder remuneration
Cash / Buffer
M&A / New growth opportunities
When available, invest in value accretive M&A or new business opportunities meeting Tele2’s
strict financial hurdles
Enhance shareholder value by distributing recurring cash to shareholders
Retain financial buffer
Prudent assessment based on (a) status of operations, (b) future strategic opportunities, (c) competitive landscape and (d) general macroeconomic status
CASH
GENERATION
36
Net debt and dividend targets
Shareholder remuneration“Tele2 will seek to pay a progressive ordinary dividend of no less than 50 percent of net income excluding one-off items. Extraordinary dividends and the authority to purchase Tele2’s own shares will be recommended or sought when the anticipated total return to shareholders is deemed to be greater than the achievable returns from the deployment of the capital within the group's operating segments or the acquisition of assets within Tele2’s economic requirements.”
Balance sheet“Tele2 has a target net debt to EBITDA ratio of between 1.25 and 1.75 times over the medium term. The company’s longer term financial leverage should be in line with the industry and the markets in which it operates and reflect the status of its operations, future strategic opportunities and contingent liabilities.”
37
Group financialsMobile Fixed telephony OtherFixed broadband
GROUP EBITDA and GROUP EBITDA MARGIN
GROUP CAPEX (BS) ROCE
GROUP NET SALES
SEK Million SEK Million
SEK Million Percent
Group EBITDA margin
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 110
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 110
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 110
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 110%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
19%20%
22%
23%
19%
38
Group mobile EBITDA
* Norway, Netherlands and Germany are treated as MVNO
Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
-7%
0%
7%
14%
21%
28%
35%
Mobile EBITDA on own infrastructure Mobile EBITDA (MVNO)*
Mobile EBITDA margin on own infrastructure Total mobile EBITDA margin
SEK Million
GROUP MOBILE EBITDA
39
Income statement/Adjustment 2011 using new accounting principles
SEK million
CONTINUING OPERATIONS
Net sales
Operating expenses
Results from shares in associated companies and JVs
Other operating income
Operating profit, EBIT
Interest income/costs
Profit after financial items, EBT
Tax on profit
NET PROFIT
EBITDA Mobile Sweden
Total Assets
Return On Capital Employed
2011, Full year
251
-215
-16
62
82
-75
7
-7
-
318
355
-0.4%
+2.7%
40
Sweden mobile revenue and EBITDA (Q)
2,241 10 149 9 2,409
1% 36%
670
22 -32 515
716
SALESSEK million
EBITDASEK million
41
Sweden mobile revenue and EBITDA(FY)
8,474 311 609 -72 9,322
4%87%
EBITDA YTD 2010
GM2 (excl. N4M)
N4M Expansion cost
Other OpEx
EBITDA YTD 2011
2,803253
-68 -46 -100 2,842
SALESSEK million
EBITDASEK million
42
Swe mobile: Restated JV accounting
2,241
57
2,298
-33 16 149 12
2,441
Q4 2
010
Resta
tem
ent
Resta
ted E
BIT
DA
Q4..
.
MT
R
N4M
Equip
ment
Underlyin
g
Resta
ted E
BIT
DA
Q4..
.
670
73
743
-16 -260
97
799
30%32% 33%
2% 0% -1% -2% 4%
8,474 303 8,776 -119 34 609 227 9,528
YT
D 2
010
Res
tate
men
t
Res
tate
dE
BIT
DA
YT
D '1
0
MT
R
N4M
Equ
ipm
ent
Und
erly
ing
Res
tate
d E
BIT
DA
YT
D '1
1
2,803 333 3,137 -57 -45 0 126 3,161
33% 36% 33%3% 0% -1% -2% 1%
EBITDA and EBITDA marginSEK million
SALES (Quarterly comparison)SEK million
EBITDA and EBITDA marginSEK million
SALES (FY comparison)SEK million
0,5%-0,9% -2,3%
2010-10-2043
2010-10-2044
Tele2 Norway history
1995 2000 2002 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Norway fixed
operations
launched
Norway operations launched
Founded by Tele2 and Network Norway
Acquisition of Lebara and OneCall and
strong organic growth initiated
ADSL and VoIP
operations divested
New MNVO contract with
NetCom
Acquisition of Network
Norway
Network roll-out phase 1 fully
financed
Norway mobile operations launched and strong organic
growth initiated. Service Provider at
Telenor.
Rapid turnaround, increasing profits while maintaning
strong growth
MVNO at
Telenor
2010-10-2045
Tele2 Norway brand overview
• Position: Best deal in the business segment• Segment: Business/postpaid: high, medium and low-end customers• Products: Mobile voice, mobile broadband and Mobile Centrex• Price perception: Low• Quality perception: Medium (NwN) / Low (Tele2)• Channels: Retail, TM (Tele2)• Revenue (Q4 2011): MNOK 116• Subscribers (End of 2011): 82 000
1.5 %*1.5 %*
• Position: Best deal challenger to Telenor and NetCom• Segment: Residential/postpaid/prepaid: high, medium and low-end
customers• Products: Mobile voice, mobile broadband and fixed telephony• Price perception: Low• Quality perception: Medium• Channels: Web, retail, TM and Customer Service• Revenue (Full year 2011): MNOK 2 311 • Subscribers (End of 2011): 592 000
Revenue market share: 8.3 %*
Revenue market share: 8.3 %*
• Position: Market leader with price position within the ethnic segment• Segment: Residential/prepaid/postpaid: ethnic segment and
international calls• Products: Mobile voice• Price perception: Low• Quality perception: Low/Medium• Channels: Retail, web and canvas• Revenue (Q4 2011): MNOK 136• Subscribers (End of 2011): 222 000
2.6 %*2.6 %*
• Position: Price position in the general market• Segment: Residential/postpaid: basic services customers• Products: Mobile voice and mobile broadband• Price perception: Low• Quality perception: Medium• Channels: Web• Revenue (Q4 2011): MNOK 229• Subscribers (End of 2011): 261 000
2.7 %*2.7 %*
* Total market share revenue according to ”Det norske markedet for elektroniske kommunikasjonstjenster 1. halvår 2011, Post og Teletilsynet, 2011-11-14”. Please note that Network Norway and OneCall have a combined market revenue share of 4.2 % (market share excludes Tele2 Business which is included in Tele2’s market share of 8.3 %). Network Norway’s and OneCall’s combined market revenue share has been divided (1.5 % and 2.7 %) in relation to total revenue reported for 1st half of 2011 for respective company.