Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

58
1 INTRODUCTION Lars Torstensson

Transcript of Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

Page 1: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

1

INTRODUCTION Lars Torstensson

Page 2: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

2

At what price are

you going to sell

4G?

When are

you going to

launch?

But is he going

to tell me

something I

don’t know?

Page 3: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

3

WELCOME

Mats Granryd

Page 4: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

4

Market presence and offered products

Sweden

Full product suite

Norway

Full product suite

Estonia

Mobile, Fixed

telephony

Latvia

Mobile

Lithuania

Mobile

Netherlands

Full product suite

Austria

Fixed broadband,

Fixed telephony

Croatia

Mobile

Kazakhstan

Mobile

Germany

Mobile, Fixed

broadband & telephony

Page 5: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

5

Net sales per market and segment

Share of net sales per market H1 2013

Net sales by market and segment H1 2013

SEK Million

Majority of net sales originates from

Sweden, Norway and the

Netherlands

Remaining markets contribute no

less than 25% of net sales

Mobile is the largest product area in

terms of net sales, representing 70.8%

of total net sales

Sweden Netherlands Norway Austria

Croatia Lithuania Latvia Kazakhstan

Germany Estonia Other

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Mobile Fixed broadband

Fixed telephony Other operations

Page 6: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

6

Benefitting from a mobile evolution

Demand growth – European mobile data

usage Tele2 Sweden - Mb/week

3G 4G 2G

Jun-11 Jun-12Jan-12 Jan-13

MB

Jun-13Strong spectrum portfolio

Tele2 is a leading infrastructure-

based challenger with attractive offers

Tele2 is uniquely positioned to

capitalise on mobile data and internet

growth

Page 7: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

7

Netherlands Other Netherlands Other

The Netherlands are of high importance

from a Tele2 Group perspective… Netherlands share of Net Sales

H1 2013

Netherlands share of EBITDA H1 2013

18.1% 21.2%

...and the importance will grow over the coming years

Page 8: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

8

MARKET OVERVIEW Bob Bunnik

Page 9: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

9

NL is a concentrated and competitive market: 4 out of 5 players have a converged strategy

Market: Consolidation

Cable: ‘mobility’ through WiFi, plus MVNO+limited own-roll-out

Full-MVNO on TMNL, transition to MNO

M&A FttH players

‘Quad Play’

‘Convergence Strategy’

Fixed broadband Mobile (3 MNOs & their main brands)

Page 10: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

10

Convergence from a customer perspective

Fixed and mobile are converging, providing seamless access on any device and network.

Partnerships are key to enhance the value proposition for both consumer and business.

Services Devices Access

Residential: ‘Packaging’ convergence Business: Real technical convergence

True Convergence is about providing seamless access and convenience (‘one-stop-shop’)

Page 11: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

11

Mobile market price levels: NL vs. EU

• The Netherlands mobile market behaves as a protected market with very high price levels.

“774% difference

in Phone call prices

across the EU”

“Up to 100x difference

In Data-only tariff volume

allowances in EU27”

EU Mobile Data price comparison

EU Mobile Voice price comparison

Sources: REWHEEL (2013), EU27 Mobile Data Cost Competitiveness Report and EU Digital Agenda Scorecard 2012 (Aug. 2013)

Average cost per minute (€ cents) in mobile communications,

2011

Page 12: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

12

Mobile market: 4G positioned as premium

The Dutch market is moving towards flat-fee Voice & SMS but still with high price levels.

Vodafone KPN

Page 13: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

13

Mobile market shares and value

Stable market share development, growth within mobile data

Revenue Market Shares 2005-2012

(x%)

NL Mobile Service Revenue’s 2012-2017

(mEUR)

Sources: Tele2 research and TelecomPaper Q2-2013

3503 3230

2990 2812

2647 2490

2294 2230

2288 2377 2493 2626

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Voice Non-Voice

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

KPN T-Mobile Vodafone

Page 14: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

14

A 4G-centric mobile operator could capture most value at lowest cost.

Mobile handset market development

35% SIM-only May 2013,

up from 26% May 2012

NL:

66%

Very high smartphone penetration

in the Netherlands

SIM-only sales continuous to increase

Source: Comscore Data Gem

Page 15: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

15

The addressable market for DSL is declining with clear growth in fiber

A technology shift in fixed broadband

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Internet

Internet VoIP

Internet (VoIP) TV

Internet (VoIP/ Mobile)

TV

Internet (Mobile) OTT-TV

xDSL FttH

2016

45% 45% 45% 45% 44% 43%

7% 10% 13% 17% 20% 23%

48% 45% 42% 39% 36% 34%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Cable FttH DSL

Bandwidth demand pushed by TV & Video

Fixed Broadband penetration: a technology shift

Sources: TelecomPaper (Q2-2013), Dutch Broadband

Page 16: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

16

Fixed business services shift to mobile & IP

Digital leased lines

IP VPN

Ethernet services

Internet access

IP voice

Traditional fixed voice

2015

100%

2%

19%

13%

20%

21%

25%

2010

100%

5%

19%

6%

21%

8%

41%

Fixed services

Mobile services

2015

5.249 mEUR

45%

55%

2010

5.268 mEUR

54%

46%

Business market value is also shifting to mobile and ‘All-IP’.

FttO regulation more favorable for alternative operators.

Dutch enterprise telecom services Fixed Services Revenue split

Sources: Tele2; Gartner, 2011; IDC, 2011; Cap Gemini Consulting analysis

Page 17: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

17

Cloud/Hosted PBX is growing

Fixed and Mobile are integrating

Security is of increased importance

Increasing ICT complexity

Decline in Voice usage

Anywhere, anytime access on any device

Fixed and Mobile convergence

‘Consumerisation’: from ‘investing’

to ‘using’ (Cloud)

Key trends in the business segment

Business market converges into ‘ICT’ business with increased attention for security.

Trends affecting the LE market Trends affecting the SME market

Page 18: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

18

Key take-away: Significant growth potential in

mobile

Seamless fixed-mobile operators will be able to capture market value: 4G and fiber will be

pivotal.

Residential growth in Mobile Data &

Fixed Broadband on Fiber

B2B growth in Hosted Voice and

Mobile, Fiber to the office

increasingly important

Page 19: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

19

Q&A PART 1

Bob Bunnik

Page 20: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

20

THE NEW TELCO Günther Vogelpoel

Page 21: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

21

Our Strategic Stronghold

Tele2 is uniquely positioned in the Dutch market with own fiber access and 4G.

Fiber to the

Home

FIBER BACKBONE

Fiber to the

Office Fiber to the X

Fiber to the Site xDSL

LTE Radio Network

Residential Wholesale B2B

Residential, B2B

& Wholesale

Page 22: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

22

Tele2 the new Telco – 4G only

2G & 3G & 4G 4G

Page 23: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

23

Data is the future

Total Data Revenue NL 2012 – 2017

(x mEUR)

Source: Telecompaper

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Provide customers with propositions that makes it easy to use data

Page 24: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

24

Transition is the name of the game

Mobile: transition from MVNO to 4G MNO

Broadband: transition from copper (DSL) to Fiber

Our ambition: growth

Converged Player

Mobile residential*

>20%

Broadband residential*

>15%

Business*

>10%

* Market share

Page 25: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

25

Strong Sales with MVNO

Growth Tele2 base YoY

-160

-110

-60

-10

40

90

Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213

Tele2 KPN Vodaphone T-Mobile

Source: Telecompaper

Customer Net Additions (x1000)

Tele2 is the only company that has shown continuous growth in the last 6 quarters.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Tho

usa

nd

s

Page 26: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

26

Transition to MNO

Smart distribution

Success of

smartmix

proposition

continues

New brand

position

4G ready & 4G

experience

Tele2 has a unique beneficial position to be competitive on mobile and fixed broadband.

Page 27: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

27

Passive

NWS

Agreement

with TMNL

MNO progressing well

Off load

data to 4G

network

Secured

new MVNO

deal

Selected

vendors

New brand

platform Grow in

MVNO

Smart

distribution

Page 28: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

28

Declining Tele2 base, preparation for transition

to high speed broadband

Broadband development Tele2 base

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-13 Q1-13 Q2-13

Ziggo KPN DSL UPC

Others KPN DSL KPN Fiber Tele2

Tele2 Consumer Broadband market share

Incumbent aggressively attacks Cable.

FttH fastest grower

Bring fixed broadband back to growth

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Tho

usa

nd

s Total base DSL

Source: Tele2 Research & Telecompaper

Page 29: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

29

The addressable market increases to

70 % in 2015

Tele2 FttH last mile via KPN with

regulated prices

High speed broadband coverage growing

Source: Tele2 Research

15%

15%

13%

57%

2013 15%

33%

19%

33%

VDSL Tele2 VDSLKPN FttH Unreachable

15%

50%

25%

10%

The addressable market increases

to 45% in 2014

Wholesale KPN VDSL access

with Tele2 services

Adding VDSL (off-net by KPN) Adding on-net FttH

Addressable market >30MB

Page 30: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

30

Why will we be successful?

Synergy 4G

network and FttH

FttH rollout

momentum

Customer demand

higher speeds

Capture value in

converged

services

Leveraging on

existing

customer base

Own fiber

backbone

Tele2 has a unique beneficial position to be competitive on mobile and fixed broadband.

Page 31: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

31

MNO ROLLOUT Joachim Horn

Page 32: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

32

Spectrum availability

Targeted quality and performance

Expected traffic

Population density, distribution and migration pattern

Topography

Type of buildings

Key criteria for designing coverage

Page 33: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

33

SWE NL

Total surface (km2) 450,300 41,540

Non water or forest 28.5% 72.4%

Population 9,5 M 16,7 M

Population per km2

non forest / water**

73.6 555.0

Demography and geography impacts

coverage

50%

100%

Sweden

Netherlands

Po

pu

latio

n c

ove

rage

*

30% Sites

15%

*Approximate

Source: WorldBank.org 2011

**Assuming no inhabitants in forest or water areas

Page 34: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

34

Sig

na

l s

tren

gth

Distance [km]

800MHz 2600MHz

Tele2 has a very powerful spectrum position…

Pe

ne

tra

tion

loss

Wall

800 2.6

800 2.6

Coverage Km2

Ou

tdo

or

Ind

oo

r

Signal loss when covering indoor

10 MHz in 800 MHz

Ideal for coverage

20 MHz in 2.6 GHz

Ideal for capacity

Difference indoor/outdoor

… enabling a competitive and cost efficient rollout

Page 35: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

35

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Time

Network planning done, site sharing deal

signed, suppliers chosen and rollout started

Approx. 3,500 sites for initial rollout

Priority to achieve full coverage

Competitive capacity, speed and quality

First sites being finalized

* Approximate

Population coverage over time*

Page 36: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

36

Leveraging synergies with our backbone

and FttH

LTE

POP

Consumer

Small business

Microwave = Tele2 infrastructure

= Rented from Reggefiber

Page 37: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

37

Principles of site sharing with T-Mobile NL

RRH*

Antenna

T-Mobile base

station

Tele2

base

station

Backhaul Tele2 core

network

T-Mobile core

network

2G

3G

4G

4G

X

X

X

Passive sharing of infrastructure and antennas

Sharing of backhaul, power and field services is optional

Majority of sites will be shared with T-Mobile, first sites available soon

*RRH = Remote Radio Head

Page 38: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

38

RAN

Core

IMS/Voice over

LTE platform

Network procurement done

Mainly price

Similar quality and capabilities of

different vendors

Vendor capabilities

Vendor experience

Existing references

Vendor experience

Vendor flexibility

Equipment Vendor Main decision criteria

Page 39: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

39

SE 2003 SE 2008 SE 2013 SE share2013

NL 2013

Sweden reference

Rollout versus license investments

NL

MEUR

161 172

License Network rollout

MEUR

CAPEX for initial rollout* Comparison radio equipment cost

MEUR

Cost per

site

• Competitive equipment prices keep investments low

*Approx. 3,500 sites

Page 40: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

40

LTE supports carrier grade VoIP, i.e. Voice

over LTE

First carrier grade voice over IP-solution in

mobile

Future proof “Over-The-Top” competitive

service

Generally available from beginning of 2014

(standardization, chipsets)

Dec. 2012: Tele2 first live VoLTE trial in EU

• Tele2 targets to offer VoLTE early

Page 41: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

41

VoLTE brings substantial benefits

Better sound

Less delay

Up to 6x faster establishment times

Spectral efficiency

No national roaming costs

Page 42: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

42

Preparing Tele2’s customer base for LTE

US and Asian operators to launch

VoLTE within next 12-18 months

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Top tier handsets likely to support

VoLTE from 2014

Potential upgrade of existing LTE

handsets with VoLTE

LTE enabled handsets sold by Tele2 NL

Jul 2012 Jul 2013

• More than 50% of handsets sold in July 2014 are already LTE enabled

Page 43: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

43

How we will ensure quality

Full LTE

coverage

with best

in class

ambition

National

Roaming

Agreement

Building our own network based on newest technology without legacy

Ambition to achieve a full LTE coverage as soon as possible

Keep our customers in the Tele2 network throughout the country

Quality design is based on KPI:s which beats best in class in Sweden

Seamless coverage experience for Tele2 customers (2G and 3G)

Similar setups working very well in Tele2 Norway and Croatia

Proven CSFB* technology to deliver voice (2G and 3G) to 4G

customers

Tele2 was the first operator in Europe to launch CSFB (2011)

*CSFB = Circuit Switch Fallback

Page 44: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

44

Tele2 will have a very competitive

IT landscape

New IT

architecture

Ahead of the pack – legacy free

Flexible best of breed system, fully agile approach

All current and future business needs, fixed and mobile

Customer benefits

Transparent and clear communication to the customers

Online focus: My Tele2, customer portals and apps

Real-time information for consumption and charging

• Architecture defined, suppliers chosen and development started

Page 45: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

45

Key take-aways

In control for best customer experience

Building our own network

Implementing a competitive IT landscape

All legacy free

Planning done, suppliers chosen, implementation started

Initial rollout of 3,500 sites, most of which are shared

Supporting business success with competitive cost position

Working on early launch of VoLTE for true 4G experience

Page 46: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

46

Q&A PART 2

Günther Vogelpoel

Joachim Horn

Page 47: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

47

B2B OPERATION Fedor Hoevenaars

Page 48: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

48

B2B has a clear # 2 position in fixed services

Strong

customer base

Broad service

spectrum

Own

infrastructure

ATM’S TRAINS SCHOOLS &

UNIVERSITIES

HEALTHCARE CASINO’S

One of the largest fiber optic networks

Total length 5,213 km

Access to 55 radio nodes

Page 49: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

49

Incumbent is dominant in B2B

58% 16%

5%

4%

16%

Business Market Share: Fixed Voice Connections

58%

13%

4%

4%

8%

6% 7%

Business Market Share: IP-VPN Connections

Tele2 is the only full-service alternative

Sources: OPTA Structural Market Monitor Q1 2013

58%

13%

4%

4%

8%

6%7%

Business Market Share: IP-VPN Connections

KPN Tele2 UPC Ziggo Vodafone Eurofiber Other

Page 50: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mobile

Fixed

Mobile drives B2B revenue development

Overall strong revenue growth in B2B driven by mobile, where fixed remains important

B2B Mobile growth taking of

in 2015 when network

reached full coverage and

quality

Overall revenue growth

from all segments: SME

and Enterprise

Continued decline in fixed

voice MoU and traditional

voice service being

replaced by Hosted Voice.

Our strength in Data

(VPN/Internet) remains

highly important for the

future

*Not based on actual figures

Page 51: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

51

3%

4%

6%

9%

11%

37%

39%

47%

67%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Other

Supported new ways of working

Don't know

4G hasn't benefited my business

Improved customer satisfaction

Increased employee well-being / motivation

Won more business

Cust costs

Increased productivity

Relevance of 4G in B2B

4G is a perfect complement to our Fixed business

‘How can LTE

improve the

processes we

already have?’

‘What’s totally new?’

Source: Arthur D. Little Analysis

Page 52: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

52

Corporate

SME

SOHO

Full service provider, serving all segments

Direct: Account

Management

Indirect: Partners

and Telesales

Online and Retail

Sales channel expansion in SME is part of our growth strategy in B2B

Page 53: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

53

Transition to integrated services

Convergence is creating momentum

By adding mobile to our portfolio the addressable market is doubled

Cloud/Hosted PBX is growing

Fixed and Mobile are integrating

Anywhere, anytime access on any device

Security is of increased importance

Increasing ICT complexity

We rather partner than invent

ourselves

Tele2

Fixed &

Mobile

Customer

Centricity

Collaboration

Business

Continuity

Cost

Control

4 themes lead our proposition development and

partner selection

Page 54: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

54

Large bank

Corporate SME Wholesale

Our B2B strategy proves to be successful C

usto

mers

P

art

ners

Page 55: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

55

Tele2

Fixed

Mobile

Convergence

Customer

Centricity

Collaboration

Bu

sin

es

s

Co

nti

nu

ity

Co

st

Co

ntro

l

With 4G capabilities Tele2 is able to address the entire business market

SME

Corporate

Wholesale

SOHO

Take away: converged connectivity is

opening the market

Page 56: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

56

Conclusions

>20% >10%

Back to growth

&

benefit from

synergy

Continue growth

&

build 4G

Maintain fixed

&

grow mobile

>15%

Page 57: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013

57

Q&A PART 3

Fedor Hoevenaars

Page 58: Analyst & Journalist Meeting Tele2 2013