Tourism 2050: Scenarios, Change, Tourists and a Wee Bit of

Science Ficton

Dr. Ian YeomanVictoria University of Wellington.

Future Maker

• Understanding the implications of long term change which goes beyond the present understanding found in the New Zealand Tourism Strategy 2015

• The construction of scenarios about the future and position of tourism in New Zealand to 2050 in order to develop new order, thinking and strategic directions

• Funded by Ministries of Economic Development and the Science and Innovation

• Parallel project on climate change (Lincoln University) and aviation (Otago University)

• www.tourism2050.com

The World in 2050

Resources

Wealth

Technology

Wealth

4

5

Changing Markets

Average Annual GDP Growth Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ PricesChina 5.6 46265USA 2.1 38646India 5.9 15384Japan 1.1 6216Brazil 4.1 6020Mexico 4.3 5709United Kingdom 2.1 4997Germany 1.4 4535France 2.1 4528Russia 3.3 4297Turkey 4.4 3536Canada 2.6 3154Indonesia 4.8 2975Korea 2.5 2818Italy 1.3 2580Saudi Arabia 4.8 2419Australia 2.9 2257South Africa 4.3 1919Argentina 4.1 1267

Dadush & Stancil 2010

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Changing Markets

Average Annual GDP Growth Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ Prices

China 5.6 46265USA 2.1 38646India 5.9 15384Japan 1.1 6216Brazil 4.1 6020Mexico 4.3 5709United Kingdom 2.1 4997

Germany 1.4 4535France 2.1 4528Russia 3.3 4297Turkey 4.4 3536Canada 2.6 3154Indonesia 4.8 2975Korea 2.5 2818

Italy 1.3 2580Saudi Arabia 4.8 2419Australia 2.9 2257South Africa 4.3 1919Argentina 4.1 1267

Dadush & Stancil 2010

Net Gen by Population

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Country% of total

population under 25

Growth in under-25 population since 1980

India 52 46China 38 -9

United States 35 11Brazil 47 22

Mexico 49 14Russia 32 -15Japan 25 -27

Germany 26 -20France 31 -7

UK 31 -10Spain 27 -27

Canada 31 -4

Source: UN 2009

Net Gen by Population

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Country% of total

population under 25

Growth in under-25 population since 1980

India 52 46China 38 -9

United States 35 11Brazil 47 22

Mexico 49 14Russia 32 -15Japan 25 -27

Germany 26 -20France 31 -7

UK 31 -10Spain 27 -27

Canada 31 -4

Source: UN 2009

The generation effect

Source: Understanding Society (British Household Panel Survey)/nVision/Labour Force Survey | Base: 14,103 respondents aged 16+, GB, 2009

Year homeowners bought their current home, by age of head of household

By the early 10s, a third of 16-17s and nearly a fifth of 18-24s are unemployed. The overall rate is around 8%.

ILO unemployment ratesby age, seasonally adjusted rates

As the majority of over-50s became homeowners before 2001, they have retained much of the equity growth they enjoyed due to the boom.

The great polarisation of wealth

Technology

Google Glasses

Google Glasses

Scientists at the University of Washington have been developing a contact lens containing one built-in LED, powered wirelessly with radio frequency waves, facial recognition systems etc.

Resources

Source: Krumdiek et al, (2010), Becken (2010)

Future of Transport

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Sustainable Hotel Design

Sustainable architecture seeks to minimize the negative environmental impact of buildings by enhancing efficiency and moderation in the use of materials, energy, and development space.

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Photo: Inter Continental Songjiang Resort

Too summarise…• The world faces a scramble for resources based

upon known technologies and forecasts but humankind is adaptive

• More older and less young people• Shifting wealth patterns• Future technologies are the realm of science fiction

……..But is depends on how we behave, is it a co-operative or rivalries’ world

Scenario Matrix

Resource Scarcity Adaptive Resource Use

Rivalry

Reciprocity

Scenario 4The State of China:

A World of New Consumers with a Fluid Identity

Scenario 3A Perfect Storm:

The Health Tourist

Scenario 2An Eco Paradise:

A World of Collective Individualism

Spectrum of Societal Behaviors

Resource Use

Scenario 1 Manaakitanga: Welcome to New Zealand

Manaakitanga:•How a suppressive society can only be tolerated for limited time before rebellion occurs•The importance of strong governance•Shifting geo politics•Protecting indigenous culture and national identity •Sustainability •Extended families, VFR and the concept of whanau

State of China•A capitalist society based upon increased wealth, prosperity and competition•Technological innovation such as 3D printing and claytronics change the supply chain•New Zealand is a competitive market place and strong brand•The beginnings of hypersonic travel•Tourist consumption based upon a fluid identity

Perfect Storm: •World economic morbidity and ineffective government•New Zealand outlook is about protecting itself from the volatility of the world•The role of tourism is positioned as a health driver because of ageing populations•Frugality, simplicity and mercurial consumption

•

An Eco Paradise:.•The worlds middle classes are being squeezed as resources become scarce•Priority and incentive for resource substitution•The kiwi psyche is green•New Zealand economy is strong because of natural resources and specialisation•Exclusivity and tourism access not a right

Perfect Storm: (Health and Well Being)

State of China(Individualism)

An Eco Paradise (The Exclusivity)

Manaakitanga:(Families)

The multigenerational, or vertical, family

Source: Michael Young, The Future Foundation/nVision

The modern family is a widening spread of connections up and down the ages. And the contraction of the sibling population is to some extent compensated by the swell in the number of step-relatives, especially in North America and Western Europe.

Having found that ever more customers were wishing to holiday with both children and grandparents together, Eurocamp began waiving the adult fee for grandparents who shared the same accommodation as the rest of their family.

Democratic families : most prevalent in the BRIC nations and South Korea

Source: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country (**GB is 5000) aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2010

“In my family children have a say in important family spending decisions”

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Democratic families : most prevalent in the BRIC nations and South Korea

Source: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country (**GB is 5000) aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2010

“In my family children have a say in important family spending decisions”

The psychology of family heritage : a force which globally underpins the perceived value of the family unit

Exclusivity

Inconspicuous Consumption

Consumers in the West are moving away from ostentatious consumption as a way to acquire or affirm social status. In turn, quietly expressed savoir-vivre is becoming the default setting.

“Please say which of the following things would be the best description of ‘luxury’ in your life.”% who selected a materialistic, experiential or time option (see notes for definitions).

Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2011

Differences in the meaning of luxury for different ages

“Please say which of the following things would be the best description of ‘luxury’ in your life.”% who selected a materialistic, experiential or time option (see notes for definitions).

Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2011

Differences in the meaning of luxury for different ages

“Please say which of the following things would be the best description of ‘luxury’ in your life.”% who selected a materialistic, experiential or time option (see notes for definitions).

Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2011

Differences in the meaning of luxury for different ages

Authenti-seeking

As much as global consumers continue to embrace the convenience and reliability delivered by globalised mass production, they also aspire to an alternative to the perceived homogenisation of contemporary culture, food and leisure experiences. The consumer’s search for the “real” - which we define as Authenti-seeking - has a number of implications for consumer-facing sectors : from the way companies package and market their offers to how they interact with their customer base.

Health and Well Being

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Early Life: Growth and Development

Adult Maintaining highest

possible level of function

Disability threshold

Older AgeMaintaining independence and

Preventing disability

Age

Function

ality

of

cap

acity

Rehabilitation and ensuring the quality of life

Maintaining Functional Capacity Over the Course of Life

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Individuality

The UK consumer, on average change their hair style every 18 months

(Yeoman 2008)

Fluid identity

The strive for creativity : strongest in the BRIC nations

Source: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2010

“Some of the things people have told us they are concerned about are listed here. Please say which of the following items you personally are concerned about. Being a creative person”.% who are concerned, by country

The strive for creativity : strongest in the BRIC nations

Source: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2010

“Some of the things people have told us they are concerned about are listed here. Please say which of the following items you personally are concerned about. Being a creative person”.% who are concerned, by country

AffluenceRising income has been the driving agent of modern society and is responsible for creating the demanding, sophisticated and well-informed consumer we recognise today. Wealth is the core driver for the propensity to travel in all markets

The transition of changing values

Source: Visa Global Travel Intentions Survey/nVision | Base: 11,620 respondents in 23 countries aged 18+, 2011

Visa Global Survey: Key influences on the choice of travel destination, global averageMean score on a five point scale where 5 = will influence my decision strongly and 1 = will not influence my decision at all | See notes for details of countries covered and methodology

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…

Winston Churchill 1936

or has it

References– Books

• Yeoman, I. (2012) 2050: Tomorrows Tourism, Channelview, Bristol.

• Schanzel, H. Yeoman, I. Backer, E (2012) Family Tourism, Channelview, Bristol.

• Yeoman, I et al (2011) Tourism and Demography. Goodfellows, Oxford.

• Yeoman, I & Future Foundation (2013) 2040: Tomorrows Tourist. Forthcoming

– Websites.• www.tomorrowstourist.com

• www.tourism2050.com

– Data• www.futurefoundation.net

Contact

Dr. Ian Yeoman

Victoria University of Wellington

Tel: 04 463 5717

Email: ian.yeoman@vuw.ac.nz

Project website: www.tourism2050.com