Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory...

21
Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Central Europe, Warsaw, 29 October 2014

Transcript of Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory...

Page 1: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

Jacek SzlachtaMaking Europe Open and

Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards

2050 (ET 2050)

Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Central Europe, Warsaw, 29 October

2014

Page 2: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

From Project Specifications:

The 31 countries in the ESPON Monitoring Committee, have decided a vision-building process for the Europen territory with 2050 as time horizon that involves relevant stakeholders at European, national and regional level.

ET2050 Goal

Page 3: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

ET2050 Consortium

Page 4: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.
Page 5: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

Information about ET 2050 project

• Two horizons 2030 and 2050 • Baseline scenario and three territorial

scenarios: (A) market based growth favouring large metropoles; (B) Public policies promoting secondary city networks and (C) Local and European initiatives promoting small cities and less development regions

• For CEE countries the most promising scenario B

Page 6: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

Adressing panel key questions

- What are the visions and scenarios for development of European Union and in the Central and Eastern Europe macro-region?

– Is it still reasonable to treat the CEE area as a single macro-region?

Page 7: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

GDP Growth 2010-2030 (Baseline) by MASST3

GDP a.a.: 1,89 %45 regions bellow 1,00 %

Page 8: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

Employment 2010-2030 by MASST3

Page 9: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

Population Change 2010-2030 by MULTIPOLES

Population: from 514 to 530 mln inh.

Page 10: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.
Page 11: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

A

European Territorial Strategy A : Promotion of Global Cities

Page 12: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

B

European Territorial Strategy B: Promotion of Networks of Cities

Page 13: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

C

European Territorial Strategy C: Promotion of Rural and Peripheral Regions

Page 14: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.
Page 15: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.
Page 16: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.
Page 17: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

How Europe will develop if the current policies are not changed (1)

• Overall stability• Growing internal imbalances• Ageing becoming a common trend• Increasing and more diversified migration• Regional convergence turning into divergence• Increasing regional disparities• Slow reduction of unemployment and

pressure on salaries

Page 18: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

How Europe will develop if the current policies are not changed (2)

• New global trade patterns• Expanding tourism• Different tendencies of transport development

at local, regional, European and transcontinental scale

• Decreasing energy and carbon intensity• Increasing urbanization• Climate change hitting territories

asymmetrically

Page 19: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

Recommendations for the future

• Policy aims for a long term development of Europe are: openness and polycentricity.

• How to make it:• Connecting Europe Globally• Promoting co-development with neighbouring

countries• Unleashing regional diversity and endogenous

development• Supporting a balanced urban structure• Managing natural resources sustainability

Page 20: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

Future related territorial challenges for CEE countries and regions

• Trap of middle income countries is already there• End of growing cohesion after economic crises of

2008• Growing internal disparities within CEE countries• Eastern border as external EU border for coming

decades with limited relations• Relatively decreasing accessibility compared with

Western and Northern Europe• Heavy outmigration and its consequences

Page 21: Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions.

Reports are available at:

www.espon.euwww.et2050.eu (working documents)