Scenarios for a fossil free Danish Energy System in 2050
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Fossil-free Scenarios for a Danish Energy System 2050 Model and Results.” Sigurd Lauge Pedersen Danish Energy Agency www.ens.dk 17-11-2014
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Transcript of Scenarios for a fossil free Danish Energy System in 2050
Fossil-free Scenarios for a
Danish Energy System 2050 Model and Results.”
Sigurd Lauge Pedersen
Danish Energy Agency www.ens.dk
17-11-2014
Political background
A broad majority in the Parliament behind the development to 2020 (Agreement March 2012).
Government target: Fossil-free electricity and heat production by 2035 (and no coal in power plants by 2030).
Parliament supports 100 % RE in 2050 and EU 2050 target.
Nuclear ban from 1985.
3
0
300
600
900
1990 '95 '00 '05 '10 '12
PJ
Oil Natural gas Coal and coke Renewable energy etc.
Where are we now? Gross energy consumption by fuel
Short term transition Danish electricity production
3 large offshore wind parks + near-coastal offhore parks.
A number of coal-to-biomass conversions on power plants.
Solar PV 2,7 % by 2020.
Design criteria for 100 % RE
• Wind and solar abundant.
• Bio-energy limited.
• Total bio-energy is chosen as the primary design criterion.
• Energy savings and wind/PV will have to deliver the rest.
2050 scenarios
Wind: Bioenergy ≈ Danish ressources.
Bio+: Coal/oil/gas replaced by bioenergi.
Biomass: A compromise.
Hydrogen: Minimizes biomass.
Fossil: For comparison (not BAU).
Large energy savings in all scenarios.
Massive electrification in Wind and Hydrogen scenarios. Moderate in Biomass and Fossil Scenarios.
Methododology and assumptions
• Energy demand model (energy quality; economic growth + energy savings).
• EBM (bottom-up Energy Balance Model with hour simulations).
• Technology costs and efficiencies from 4 technology catalogues.
• Fuel/CO2 prices: WEO (NP) + ETP (4o).
Refineries in Denmark.
Gas grid maintained (for green gas).
Electricity storage: ”the market”.
Electricity grid
Gas grid
District heating grids
CHP
HP/EB
Refinery
Boiler
Engine
Space heat
Process heat
Kin.energy
Electricity
Storage
Storage
Market
EBM (simulation model)
Minimizes total cost
o ∑iElProdi(t) - ∑iFlexElDemandi(t) = FixedElDemand(t)
o ∑iHeatProdi(t) = HeatDemand(t) sectors
o ElProdi(t) ElCapi
o HeatProdi(t) HeatCapi
Electricity exchange: Price interface
Exogenous investments
+Monte Carlo simulations to verify security of supply.
Security of supply.
• There appears to be a choice between two evils:
A: Use a lot of bioenergy => import dependence and sustainability issues.
B: Use very little bioenergy => Challenges electric security of supply. Solutions: Flexible demand + heat storage, reserve capacity, geographical + technological dispersion and electricity markets.
Hydrogen scenario
Wind scenario
Biomass scenario
Bio+scenario
Conclusions
• Various 100 % RE systems are possible using ”known” technology.
• Electrification, EE & savings are ”no regrets”.
• Wind and hydrogen scenarios: Fuel secure – but challenged on security of electricity supply.
• Bio+scenario: challenged on fuel safety – higher ”national” security of electricity supply.
• Additional costs 5-23% relative to a fossil system.
• The transition must begin shortly after 2020.
Thank you for your attention
http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/dokum
enter/publikationer/downloads/energiscena
rier_-_analyse_2014_web.pdf
