European Territorial Scenarios and VISION for 2050

Andreu Ulied, MCRITLead Partner ET2050

ESPON MC Meeting, Krakow, December 1, 2011

From Project Specifications:

The ESPON Monitoring Committee, DG Regio and the ESPON Coordination Unit wish to start a territorial vision-building process that involves relevant stakeholders at European, national and regional level,having 2050 as time horizon

Europe 2030 Reflexion Group

“The challenges we face today are different to those of the past and call for different responses. Whether we look at relative demographic and economic decline, climate change or energy shortages the challenges can only be properly understood and tackled when situated in a regional and global context… …the choice for the EU is clear: reform or

decline”.

ET2050 Consortium: 13 institutions from 10 EU countries

ET2050 Objective: Supporting policy-makers defining the VISION

ET2050 Methodology: Scientific and Politically driven

ET2050 Work plan: Five Steps towards the VISION

ET2050 End goal: The VISION 2050

Introducing ET2050…

ET2050 Consortium

ET2050 Consortium

ET2050 Consortium

MCRIT, LPAndreu UliedOriol BioscaRafael Rodrigo

TERSYNJacques Robert

IGEATMoritz LennertValérie BiotJean-Michel Decroly

GEPHYRES / IGEATPhillipe Doucet

RKKIvan IllesKatalin Süle

S&WMichael WegenerKlaus Speakermann

POLIMIRoberto Camagni Roberta Capello Ugo Fratesi

IOMMarek KupiszewskiDorota Kupiszewska

RIKSJaspers de VlietHedwig van Delden

NordregioAlexandre Dubois

University of Thessaly (UTH)Harry Coccosis

WSEJacek Szlachta

ISISCarlo Sessa

ERSILIA Jaume Jorba

ESPON CU

Sara FerraraMarjan van Herwijnen

Sounding Board

Patrick SalezKarl Peter Schon

ET2050 Objective

Supporting policy makers in formulating a VISION, long-term integrated and coherent, for the (smart, sustainable and inclusive) development of the EU territory up to 2050.

Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)

Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)

ET2050 Methodology

Politically-driven: Participatory Activities

ET2050 will follow a Participatory approach mostly aiming to support policy makers to develop the common VISION

• Workshops for policy-analysts/makers and experts• Personal interviews and small consultation/focus groups• Online surveys and interaction

Scientifically driven: ET2050 Five-Steps

•Step 1: Present State of the European territory

•Step 2: 2030 and 2050 Baseline Scenarios

•Step 3: 2050 Territorial Extreme Scenarios

•Step 4: Supporting Policy-makers to develop the 2050 VISION

•Step 5: 2030 Midterm Targets and Pathways

ET2050 Work plan

Domain Forecast Models 2010-2030 Coverage Partner

Demography

MULTIPOL Cohort-component, hierarchical, multiregional, supranational model of population dynamics (up to 2030)

ESPON at NUTS2  OIM

Economy MASST Econometric: social, macroeconomic andTerritorial (up to 2030)

ESPON at NUTS2 POLIMI

TransportTT/MOSAIC Integrated modal split and traffic assignment based on TRANSTOOLS OD trip matrices(up to 2030)

EU27 at NUTS2 MCRIT

Land-useMETRONAMICA Spatial and dynamic land use model that Uses constrained cellular automata to allocate land-uses (up to 2050)

EU27 at Cells 1 km2

RIKS

IntegratedSASI Dynamic System linked to transport networks(up to 2050)

ESPON and Western Balkans at NUTS3

S&W

Domain Foreight Meta-models 2030-2050 Coverage Partner

Integrated

TV+ First version developed in the TRANSVISIONS study (DGMOVE, 2008) to support the EC Communication on the Future of Transport, Revision of White Paper and TENs Guidelines(up to 2050)

Europe  MCRIT

IntegratedPASH+ First version developed in the PASHMINA 7FP project (2011)(up to 2050)

World MCRIT

Domain Policy-evaluation Coverage Partner

TIA

Territorial Impact Assessment First version developed in the ESPON 3.2 study, then refined and applied in several ESPON projects (TIPTAP…).

Europe  POLIMI

1. Definition of criteria to evaluate policy-aims

2. Definition of relative weights (in the ESPON MC frame)

3. Identification of scientifically sound indicators to measure the criteria (to be calculated with outputs produced by forecast and foresight models)

4. Evaluation of the scenarios, and based on the evaluation adjustment of the scenarios

5. Evaluation of the VISION, and based on the evaluation refinement

Present State (1)

Present State: transnational strategic reports (1)

(To support policy-makers) the expert “catalytic” approach will be based on:

Transnational zone or macro-region Partner

South West countries (Spain, Portugal) with extensions to Maghreb countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia) MCRIT

Mediterranean countries (Italy, southern Balkans, with extensions to some Mashrek countries (Libya, Egypt) POLIMI

North-West Europe (Ireland, UK, France, Benelux) TERSYN and IGEAT

Germany and Alpine countries (with junction to the Danubian area) S&W

Baltic Sea Region and Nordic and Northern Peripheries (with extensions to the Arctic and Barents area) NORDREGIO

Danubian countries (with extensions to Moldova, southern Ukraine and the northern part of the Black Sea Basin) RKK

South-East European region, (Greece, south-eastern Balkans with extensions to Turkey, the southern parts of the Black Sea Basin, the Trans-Caucasian Republics and the Middle East) UTH

Eastern European countries between the Danube basin and the Baltic Sea region (with extensions to north-west Russia, Bielorussia and northern Ukraine) SWE

Outermost regions 

MCRIT

Present State: future-oriented reports for sectors (1)

Sectors considered Partner

Demographic trends and potential territorial impacts in Europe OIM

Economic trends and potential territorial impacts in Europe POLIMI

Technologic trends and potential territorial impacts in Europe MCRIT

Transport trends and potential territorial impacts in Europe S&W

Energy trends and potential territorial impacts in Europe TERSYN

Land-use trends and potential territorial impacts in Europe RIKS

Environmental trends and potential territorial impacts in Europe IGEAT

Governance trends and potential territorial impacts in Europe NORDEGIO

Baseline Scenario (2)

CO2 directly emitted by fossil fuel based vehicles inside EU-27 and SSS by year

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1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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BASELINE Decoupled mobility Reduced mobility Induced mobilityConstrained mobility 50% CO2 reduction 2005 10% CO2 reduction 2005

Example of 2050 Baseline: TV+ (Transvisions, DGMOVE, 2008)

BaselineBusiness as UsualScenario

Extreme Scenarios (3)

Extreme Scenarios (3)

SPSP / Infographic Group United Kingdom view by Alessandro Augiri ex. Flows?

According to Project Specifications:

This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments are mainly stimulated to take place within maincorridors. Europe of the Flows is characterised by strong connections between cities and transport nodes that structure the European territory. Political focus lies on issues such as enhancing connections and long distance networks and global integration

SPSP / Infographic Group Netherlands // Paul van Hemert ex. Cities?

According to Project Specifications:

This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments are mainly stimulated to take place within existing cities; cities that have a role as driving forces in the global, national and/or regional level. Europe of the Cities is characterised by economically strong and compact cities that structure the European territory. Political focus lies on issues such as intensified use of urban space, strong preservation of open space, reduction of long-distance traffic

ex. Regions?

According to Project Specifications:

This scenario provides an image of the European territory in which economic and population growth as well as public investments mainly take place on the basis of specific regional identities and strengths. Europe of the Regions is characterised by strong urban and rural territories that form a mosaic of different regions and types of territories with strong identities. Political focus lies on issues such as regional self-reliance, small-scale development and landscape protection.

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Consistent Likely Desirable

CITIES FLOWS REGIONS

Initial Assessment: Opinions of the ET2050 experts

A scenario describes what will possibly happen under certain preconditions. ET2050.The prospective scenarios should define a realistic playing-field for the Territorial VISION.

And the VISION must help to define policy-relevant scenarios.

European Territorial VISION 2050 (4)

VISION Scenarios

Scientifically-driven

Politically-driven

The building process of the scenarios and the Territorial VISION should be cyclical and dynamic (no linear neither sequential) allowing the ESPON Monitoring Committee to take active part in the development and testing of the VISION and scenarios

European Territorial VISION 2050 (4)

The European Territorial VISION 2050 and the scenarios

From the Project Specifications:

The VISION should provide a coherent framework to formulate territorial policy actions at different policymaking levels and to assess and support policy initiatives from other sectors, all with a European perspective.

The VISION is expected to have a strategic character that allows giving direction to the policy debate on territorial development. This project aims at supporting policymakers in formulating this long-term integrated and coherent vision on the development of the European territory

A VISION is a dream of a future “ideal Europe”

The VISION for 2050

The European Territorial VISION could include three components:

1. A set of commonly agreed general territorial objectives and principles, with quantified goals.

2. A series of (non‐binding) policy and governance recommendations likely to make the realisation of the VISION possible

3. A series of schematic maps of the European territory displaying strategic, structuring elements

The VISION for 2050

Example of strategic maps: Keeble Economic Potential & Blue Bannane (1980s)

Example of strategic maps: Europe 2000 + (late 1980s, DGXVI, EC)

Example of strategic maps: Europe 2000 + (late 1980s, DGXVI, EC)

Example of strategic maps: ESPON3.2 (mid 2000s, ESPON)

Mid targets and Pathways (6)

Sensible midterm targets (2030) that need to be met in order to guarantee that the European territory sufficiently develops into the direction of the Territorial VISION. Targets will be realistic but ambitious, address different levels of geographical scale, and types of territories and regions.

“Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit

-and this is what I call adventure”

Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”