Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles in 2050

www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu

Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050Catalyzing Action: EU Sustainable Lifestyles Roadmap and Action Plan to 2050. SPREAD 2050 26-27 November 2012

Aleksi NeuvonenDemos [email protected]: @leksis

http://www.demos.fi

http://www.demos.fi

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


http://www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/fileadmin/images/content/D4.1_FourFutureScenarios.pdf






Local Loops is a scenario in which a radical energy crisis forces societies to re-evaluate fundamentally the foundations of their

well-being.


Craftsman attitude

Local turn

Rediscovery of local resources

Peak-oil game-changer


Craftsman attitude

Local turn



I returned my old shoes to the shoe store and got my store credit returned by doing so. I can now get brand new shoes and I know that it’s great for the environment as well!

“For my husband and me, leisure means visiting one the Local Gastronomy Guilds around, who are reinventing new recipes from local seasonal food.”

Open kitchens promotinglocal gastronomy

Food lessons of green cooking


Craftsman attitude

Local turn




Craftsman attitude

Local turn



2023: Oil prices continue to rise beyond belief, pushing great numbers of logistics companies out of the market or forcing them to sell their operations to the few remaining large ones. As a result, a small number of firms dominate transport markets in many countries, which ultimately leads to significant price increases.

!


Craftsman attitude

Local turn




Craftsman attitude

Local turn



I love living in my Danish town. We haven’t had to worry about buying energy in ages. I know lots of other towns that enjoy the same situation.


Craftsman attitude

Local turn




Craftsman attitude

Local turn



Green doorkeepers are a specialized guild that controls, monitors and ensures the energy efficiency of buildings and blocks. They serve as links between the neighbourhoods.


Craftsman attitude

Local turn




Pandemic technology

Meritocracy

Endemic technology

Human-centrism


Why backcasting scenarios?


Mobility (daily and tourism) 11 000 kg

Housing: building

2400 kg

Product consumption 2600 kg

Leisure time 1500 kg

Food 7300 kg

Housing:

electricity

3300 kg

Others

900 kg



Housing: building

2400 kg



Food 7300 kg

Housing:

electricity

3300 kg

Others

900 kg

30 000 kg



Housing: building

2400 kg



Food 7300 kg

Housing:

electricity

3300 kg

Others

900 kg

30 000 kg

Mobility (daily and tourism)

2800 kg

Food 2500 kg

Housing: building 1300 kg

Others

Housing: electricity 300 kg

Product consumption

Leisure time

300 kg

8000 kg



Housing: building

2400 kg



Food 7300 kg

Housing:

electricity

3300 kg

Others

900 kg

20502040203020202012

30 000 kg


2800 kg

Food 2500 kg


Others


Product consumption

Leisure time

300 kg

8000 kg



Housing: building

2400 kg



Food 7300 kg

Housing:

electricity

3300 kg

Others

900 kg

20502040203020202012

30 000 kg


2800 kg

Food 2500 kg


Others


Product consumption

Leisure time

300 kg

8000 kg37 years = one generation



Housing: building

2400 kg



Food 7300 kg

Housing:

electricity

3300 kg

Others

900 kg

20122020203020402050


2800 kg

Food 2500 kg


Others


Product consumption

Leisure time

300 kg



Housing: building

2400 kg



Food 7300 kg

Housing:

electricity

3300 kg

Others

900 kg

20122020203020402050


2800 kg

Food 2500 kg


Others


Product consumption

Leisure time

300 kg

Assumption on sustainable lifestyles as a doable goal



Housing: building

2400 kg



Food 7300 kg

Housing:

electricity

3300 kg

Others

900 kg

20122020203020402050


2800 kg

Food 2500 kg


Others


Product consumption

Leisure time

300 kg


Elements of disruptive change



Housing: building

2400 kg



Food 7300 kg

Housing:

electricity

3300 kg

Others

900 kg

20122020203020402050


2800 kg

Food 2500 kg


Others


Product consumption

Leisure time

300 kg


Elements of disruptive change

From quantitative decline in resource use to qualitative bits of lifestyles


Alternative future for sustainable lifestyles


Alternative futures for sustainable lifestyles


Pandemic technology

Meritocracy Human-centrism

Endemic technology


Pandemic technology

Meritocracy

Endemic technology

Human-centrism

Learning not earning

The upcycling economy

Transparency gets the prices right

The European Green New Deal

“Education is everywhere in daily life. Kids can log in to any object and access the so-called ‘situated education programmes’ and learn flexibly all through the day.”

Diffused learning embedded in everyday

products

School programs integrating in daily activities









I eat only food that’s hyper-efficient in terms of nutrition levels. Cabbages, lentils and berries are key elements in my diet. It just makes sense!





I returned my old shoes to the shoe store and got my store credit returned by doing so. I can now get brand new shoes and I know that it’s great for the environment as well!


In the scenario Singular Super Champions Europe has made the leap to a new type of sustainable, competitive and

equitable economy.


Pandemic technology

Meritocracy

Endemic technology

Human-centrism

Wikidemocracy

Better work creates well-being

Ubitech economy

The 3rd industrial revolution

Wikidemocracy


Ubitech economy


My son never buys anything that is mass-produced. He wants to customise it all by himself. I think all of his clothes are custom made.

Wikidemocracy


Ubitech economy


Wikidemocracy


Ubitech economy


“I often log on to these participative governance programs in order to meet people with whom I share common interests. We regularly propose initiatives that later become the basis of new policies.”

Local citizenship networks Deliberative processes on

local governance

Wikidemocracy


Ubitech economy


Wikidemocracy


Ubitech economy


“Our Active House is constantly optimising the way we live, from suggesting green cooking recipes and automatically preventing food waste to implementing Energy Watcher dieting programs for the family.”

Sensors and feedback systems

Situated advise on energy

consumption

Wikidemocracy


Ubitech economy



Governing the Commons is a scenario mostlyin digital reality that helps people to break free from many cultural

constraints and, eventually, to reach sustainability.

Pandemic technology

Meritocracy

Endemic technology

Human-centrism

Communitisation of urban planning

Public, private and people (PPP) – the new welfare model

The “We can” generation works together

The system breaks down





“I know a lot about easy and cost-efficient energy retrofitting jobs such as insulation. Our co-operative is very good at these quick fixes and we enjoy sharing our knowledge with the community.”

Retrofitted passive housing

Insulation based on DIY solutions

Mix of new active constructions




The system breaks down 2026: In many countries governments resign

and it turns out to be impossible to form new coalitions, which paralyzes national politics and public investments.!





Health is of the highest importance in local administration and in every municipality here in the Netherlands, as it is in all other European countries.





“I love the fact that the old streets are now turned into urban farming plots while still maintaining plenty of space for walking and cycling.”

Minor streets transformed and divided into local neighbourhood gardens

Re-appropriation of public space regenerates local social life

Former sidewalks maintained for local mobility

Provides complementary food resources for houses and apartments nearby


Empathetic Communities is a scenario where Western societies faced a crisis they had long dreaded, and how the change turned

out to be easier and more fruitful than anyonead expected.

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