Work/Tech 2050 Global Scenarios

Three Work/Technology Global Scenarios for 2050 Jerome C. Glenn, CEO The Millennium Project World Strategy Forum 2016 Seoul, Korea

Transcript of Work/Tech 2050 Global Scenarios

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Three Work/Technology Global Scenarios for 2050

Jerome C. Glenn, CEOThe Millennium Project

World Strategy Forum 2016Seoul, Korea

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When this begins to happen, the speed of increasing AI’s intelligence will be far fasterand produce more change than Moore’s Law

by responding to feedback from sensor networks worldwide,

will accelerate AI’s intelligence worldwide… moment by moment

Artificial General Intelligence and/or Super Intelligence… that can autonomously “write” and improve its code…

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Will our artificial Brains out think us?

Artificial Intelligence1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence2. Artificial General Intelligence3. Artificial Super Intelligence

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Computational ScienceComputational biology

Computational Chemistry

Computational PhysicsAll accelerated with Moore’s Law ANDautonomous AI programing worldwide

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These three together will change…what we think is possible

Artificial Intelligenc


Moore’s Law

Computational Science

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Increasing Intelligence:both Individual and Collective Intelligence

EU, US, China Human Brain Projects; Google & IBM artificial brain projects

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Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1991

By 2030 billions of people could be augmented geniuses, and what could they create?

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Old Way of Seeing Future Technologies

Artificial Intelligence Robotic


Computational Science3-D4-D Priting

Nanotechnology Quantum computing

Synthetic Biology


Artificial General Intelligence

Tele-Everything & Tele-Everybodythe Semantic Web

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Future Way of Seeing Future Technologies - Integration/Synergies

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Future Technology SynergiesRobotic manufacturing


Quantum computing

Robotic manufacturing

3D, 4D Printing

Augmented RealityTele-Presence, Holographics

Nanotechnology Artificial General Intelligence

Tele-EverythingTele-Everybodythe Semantic Web

Increasing individual and collective intelligence

Synthetic Biology


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Future Technology Synergies

Artificial Intelligence

Robotic manufacturing

Quantum computing


Future Technology

Robotic manufacturing

3D, 4D Printing

Augmented Reality,Tele-Presence, Holographics

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Integration of photovoltaics, robotics, satellites, AI, drones, ICT, and generic engineering

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If \ Then


Synthetic Biology

Artificial Intelligence

Robotics 3-D Printing Augmented Reality

Nano-technology xxx        Synthetic Biology xxx        Artificial Intelligence     xxx      Robotics       xxx    3-D Printing         xxx  Augmented Reality           xxx

Emerging Technologies Matrix

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IoT AI Contact Lens – always in Virtual Reality connected to the word

Hands-free, phone free, laptop free, AI-human symbiosis

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Humans becoming cyborgs

Conscious-Technology Age

Built environment becoming intelligent

When the distinction between these two mega trends becomes blurred, we will have reached the

Post-Information Age

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Simplification/Generalization of Historyand an Alternative Future

Age /Element Product Power Wealth Place War Time

Agricultural Extraction

Food/Res Religion Land Earth/Res Location Cyclical

Industrial Machine Nation-State

Capital Factory Resources Linear

Information Info/serv Corporation

Access Office Perception Flexible


Linkage Individual Being Motion Identity Invented

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Technology Changes Consciousness and Consciousness Changes Technology

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Future Mind:Artificial Intelligence

byJerome C. Glenn

Merging the Mystical and the Technological in the 21st Century


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If you can’t beat AI, why not join with it? …and evolve together?

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Inevitability of New Economics

• Concentration of wealth is increasing• Income gaps are widening• Employmentless economic growth seems the new norm• Return on Investment in capital and technology is usually

better than labor• Future technologies can replace much of human labor• Long-term structural unemployment is a “business as

usual” surprise free forecast• What can we do about this?

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Future of Work/Technology 2050 Study

1. Literature and Related Research Review2. Real-Time Delphi3. Road Maps and Scenario Drafts4. RTDelphi Feedback on the Scenarios5. Final Scenarios, Policy Implications, and produce initial report6. Initial Report as input to the National Planning Workshops7. Collect results of the national planning workshops, analyze &

synthesize results8. Final report for public discussion

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Global Work/Technology Scenarios 2050

1. It’s Complicated - A Mixed Bag

2. Political/Economic Turmoil – Future Despair

3. If Humans Were Free – The Self-Actualizing Economy

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Global Employment Scenario Assumptions

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Employed 2 Billion 1 Billion 1 Billion

Self-Employed 2 Billion 1 Billion 3 Billion

Unemployed or in transition 1 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion

Informal Economy 1 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion

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Will STEM Education (S&T, Engineering, Mathematics) Make a Difference?

After 2030 as AI learns how to learn in general, simultaneously and world/wide?

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Examples of Issues for Korea’s Long-Rang Strategy?

1. Education: How should education, training, and learning systems change? And what strategies will make that happen?

2. Government: Will a guaranteed income program become necessary? What kind? When? Cash flow projections to show what is possible?

3. S&T (AI/Robotics/synthetic biology/nanotech) changes affecting work by 2025, 2035, 2050?

4. Culture: What changes in culture will be needed? culture that says jobs/employment is the source of self-respect?

5. Business: What should be the roles of private business in a national long-range strategy? Reducing income gaps and concentration of wealth.

These issues become the Workshops Groups

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Some Considerations for Korea’s Strategy

Education/Learning:• Make increasing intelligence an objective of education • In parallel to STEM, create self-paced inquiry-based learning for self-actualization• Begin shift from mastering a profession to mastering combinations of skills• Increased focus on developing creativity, critical thinking, human relations, philosophy,

entrepreneurship, self-employment, ethics, and values.

Government:• Produce alternative cash flow projections for universal basic income (consider: License and

tax AI/robots and their creations, reduction of tax havens, value added tax, and taxes on carbon, massive wealth growth from new technologies, minimum corporate tax, etc.).

• Work with other countries to establish the International S&T Organization (ISTO)• Create and implement a global counter organized crime strategy• Add TransInstitutional law in addition to for-profit and non-profit law

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Some Considerations for Korea’s Strategy

Science & Technology• Augment Movement – Tech to augment humans; not replace them• What are the likely impacts of AI and AGI? When?• Could synthetic biology create more jobs than AI replaces?• Create ISTO (International S&T Organization as an online collective intelligence system

not as a mew bureaucracy)

Culture: • Arts, media, entertainment, computer games to explore cultural transition to

self-actualization economy• Media/Arts Alliance to create the “One Species” movement• Invest into what replaces you.

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Some Considerations for Korea’s Strategy

Business: Invest in and promote Kickstarter-like crowd sourcing platforms to expand business

startups and share the wealth of success Create personal AI/Avatars to support self-employment Individual augment genius apps International collaboration to create ISTO Synergetic intelligence, synergetic advantage and strategy as well as competitive

intelligence, completive advantage and strategy Qualitivity as well as productivity Memes in advertisements to help create the cultural transition World Billionaires Club on Global Strategic Philanthropy World Cyber Game to explore self-employment New roles for labor unions – Augment Movement; NT Data base

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Strategic Questions:

• Will synthetic biology create microbes to clean the plaque in the brain making the elderly more productive?

• Will AI re-write its own code and set its own goals?• Will the job culture change to accept self-employment for

self-actualizaton?• Will next technologies create more jobs that they replace?• Can universal basic income be financially sustainable?

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Future Work/Tech Strategic Planning Workshop Process

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For further informationJerome C. Glenn

+1-202-686-5179 phone/[email protected]

Global Futures Intelligence System:

2015-16 State of the Future:

Futures Research Methodology 3.0: