Megatrends, software,

organisations and people in 2030

Futurist Marianne Levinsen,

M.Sc. Political Science

Centre for Future Studies

http://uk.fremforsk.dk

Moore than 7 billion

people

The new

middle classes

Africa

US

India

China

EU (former

East europa)

Turkey

Estimated

2,5 billions

Population in

cities or suburban areas in billions

1970 1990 2005 2015 2030

World 1.160 2.280 3.170 3.860 4.990

Asia

China

480

144

1.010

320

1.550

530

1.980

690

2.660

870

US 170 210 270 300 350

Europe 410 520 530 540 550

Post –Apocalypsis

Availability to fresh water

Resources

and demand

A growing population in the world

A growing urbanization

A growing middle class – consuming and using

moore water

A growing industrial and food production

There is enough water in the world

Problem with the allocation of water and

investments in a good infrastructure to secure

clean and enough water when it´s needed.

Climate and economy

Climate changes and natural disasters to much

or to little water supply

Actually in central Europa in Prague the river

water is rising so sharply that authorities are

forced to open Dams in the south

A serious lack of water in other parts of the

world

No water = no production, no

industrial revolution and no growth

http://www.seametrics.co

m/blog/water-poor-rich-

infographic/

In political unstable parts of the world

Security of supply and avoidance of political

dependency plays a major role in the future

History and many present cases dams in Somalia and

Sudan that means that others will not get the water.

Waters origins – the Bangladesh Delta –springs from

the moutains in Nepal and Tibet ( Dams ?)

Goverments use gaz, oil, water and other resources as a

powerful tool in their political conflicts

Securing your own acces to water is very attractive for

The government, companies and people !

Water supply =

security policy

Efficiency and

effectiveness are

keywords We have to be better at everything we do

concerning water world wide

Supply – protection, reuse and recycling of

water

Consumption

Effiency inprovement and a lot to gain

Effectiveness – how do we set up our society when it

come to water

Storing and reuse

Its is expensive – but so are armies as well

Post war in Europe and

US

Churchill's famous dictum:

"Democracy is the worst form of government,

except for all those other forms that have been

tried from time to time."

(from a House of Commons speech on Nov. 11,

1947)

Cold War – 1947 to 1991 – divided into the

Western bloc and Eastern bloc

New World Order

in 2030

The end of the Cold War in 1989/91.

US and Europe felt reassured that their

political and economic systems were superior

to any other systems.

Since then the wars in Irak and Afghanistan

have shown that our ways and political systems

cannot be installed in other countries with a

total different history, conflictlines and cultures.

It’s the economy, Stupid:

Credit Crunch

Growth is taking place in

other parts of the world

A new world balance in

2030

• A new world economic and soon political order

consisting of many up-coming countries,

people, religions, cultures and puchasing-

power in many parts of the world

• A far more complex and unpredictable world

where you need to be an expert in culture,

political and economic structures and

consumers preferences as a company and

business person to succeed.

Danmark i Verden 2020

2030 – new economies

and globalization

India’s high-tech centre

Globalization 2.0

Outsourcing knowledge work and workers

Specialized engineers, researchers, scientists,

mathematicians and financial wiz kids

Creativity

Rambøll 1800 engineers – Cowi lastest

Why? – cheaper and closer to the markets

A new world for many that our job, or part of your

job is in competition in Denmark, Europe or world

wide depending on the kind of job and education

and sector you work in.

Arla – in Poland- Grundfos in Budapest

Globalization, speed and

strategy

A global world – and a mix of cultures, management styles and goals

Faster changes – the only constant is change

Higher amplitude – higher peeks and bottoms

Difficult to make strategic planning Planning in trouble – goals shift faster than projects

A chaotic world – how to thrive with chaos

From planning to muddling through More important to understand strategy and goals of the

company as a manager or project manager

You have to be good at changing directions constantly

Planning - ad hoc

The world is changing faster and faster

Ongoing change in structure and allocations of resources a part of everyday life in modern organizations

Customers change constantly, short-term goals are changed accordantly but purpose often remains blurred and distant

Planning becomes short term planning and ad hoc decisions as nobody knows the long term goals or the overall purpose of the organization

DIGITAL NOW

The digital revolution

version 3.0

• We are in the middle of a real digital revolution

that changes the way we work, produce and

communicate in a new digital society.

• Digital structure and software has become a

basic part of peoples lives and public and

privates companies

• A essentiel infrastructure in our company and

life like water and electricity.

• Your chances of succeeding very much

depends on your digital capacity

Investments in better or new digital

infrastructures and new technologies is a

necessity not an option for both private

companies and public authorities.

Several reasons.

The works and the amount of digital data is growing

rapidly

Moore efficient crossborder software is needed to

obtain better and more secure service in many different

branches

A huge need of exchanging data within a one sector and

betweens different organizations in order to achieve

higher productivity and better effiency in production and

communication ( History)

A neccesary tool in order to evaluate system,, better

standards and higher quality standards in companies.

The future of software

Today – to many software programmes and

digital data and systems that aren´t

integregrated

Informational overload – that blocks in stead of

securing the exact and needed data is available

to relevant persons in specific situations.

The healthcare system in Denmark – estimated

1420 different personal digital systems.

We have a dream of seamless integrated

systems in companies, our home and society.

Served market

Articulated

needs

Present products and

services

Market shares

Udnytte nye muligheder?

- Markedsandele

Un-

articulated

needs

Udnytte nye muligheder?

- Mulighedsandele

Udnytte nye muligheder?

- Mulighedsandele

Unserved market

Unexploited Opportunities

Cell phones, RFID

Unexploited Opportunities

Google, Skype, Facebook

Unexploited Opportunities

iPod/iTunes/iPhone,

Challenges for

Companies

Why innovation Fails?

Trend following, good ideas and mental inventions 3 times as many failures as successes

Need spotting double success to failure

Market research 4 x success to failure

Solution spotting: 7 x success to failure

”Taking advance of random events” 13 x success to failure

Source: Why innovation Fails, Carl Frankling, Spiro Press (2003) (193

product innovations studied)

Corporations are no

longer in control

• Modern companies are facing a two-front war;

• Held hostage by talent and under siege by

consumers world wide.

• Where can I get the highly skilled mancraft at

the best price in the world (the fierce competion

on the global market)

• Recruiting the bests is crucial for succeeding

with new products and processing

• Understand and motivate people

The new phases of Life

Six generations: from digital

immigrants to digital natives

Baby Boomers

The large postwar generation, 68-generation

The pill, television and radio, the phone

Solidarity and collectivenes

Born 1940-54

Generation Jones

A huge generation but invisible generation

The stereo

Old time values but

Career and money

Born 1955-64

Generation X

A small generation after the pill, the first individualists

The VCR

Harmony, society and respect .

Born 1965-77

Generation Y

Small generation(women and the workforce)

The Personal computer and the cell phone

Born 1978-89

Generation Z

Born between the end of the Cold War and 9-11

Digital natives

What´s in it for me?

Born 1990-2001

New Millenium

Post 9 - 11 generationen

global citizens

Wi–Fi (Wireless internet) born 2002

Babyboomers

born 1940-54

The huge post war generation

This generation is much better educated and has much

moore money /wealth than their parents

Digital immigrant – the technologies that they are

familar with is the pill, the television and the telephone

The first generation of grasshoppers - eat all of it, and

leave nothing behind you.

Worklife – They like collective system that ensure that

everybody is treated the same way or better as a senior

In the workplace

Born 1955 - 64

More conscious and cynical consumers and employees

Design, ethics, idea

Anti - divorce, like family values, society is important

Interrail- generation

A new beginning at 40, 50 and 60 – reinventing yourself

Status, position and money

A succesful life is family, career and

leisure – all together – a balanced life

Generations X

born 1965- 1977

The first generation after the pill

The individual way- self-centered generation

Brand enthusiasts

As costumers Generation Jones and generation X

Are cynical and very focused on price and value

Some are real digital shoppers, others still prefer the

fysical shop

Workaholics – personal succes and status

Results and salary

Flexibility

Generation Y ( 1978-89)

and Z (Digital natives)

(1990-2001)

• The first on- line and Google it! ..Information, shopping, chatting,

downloading music - multitasking

• Sharing pictures, informations, products with ís a natural part of their

life.

• Funshoppers and friends, travelling, party and work

• Without the cell-phone ” I feel Naked” or doomed

• Personal recognition for what I say or do, what´s in it for me !

• Social networking is a must in life. www.facebook.com,

www.Twitters.com, www.myspace.com, www.Youtube.com,.

• I like to have my personal style and projects at work

• In Europe Generation Jobless ……….

Digital Natives

Future job and future

employers!

• What can this job offer me?

• Near future possibilities to meet different

people, leaders, jobfunctions and workplaces

on a regular basis?

• Comprehension and willingness to understand

the things I care for ! Children, cats, music

festivals, yoga

• Leaders that can motivate me – be my star and

Forgive me

If you want loyalty - go

buy a dog (A student , London College of Fashion)

Sustainable Human

Ressource at the

workplace • Different nationalities and generations and

thereby labour market values.

• Different values and religions, protestants,

atheists, catholics, muslisms, hindues

• Different social conditions and family relations

• The primary focus should be on every single

individual with its personal, cultural and

professional qualities

• That´s creates a good place to work.

Globalization and the

workforce

• A global labour market, transnational competi-

tion and possibilities!! Complexity/control

• Companies outsourcing of both unskilled,

skilled and presently highly skilled jobs and

functions to European countries, China, India

and Vietnam.

• Digital means of communication and

problemsolving – the world is my backyard

• A growing need for transnational regulation of

minimum wage, conditions of work.

The networked person

A fast growing number of people

• Observed in airport lounges, on fast inner-city

trains and motorway service stations - always

on the run from one place to another

• Decisionmaking and problemsolving on laptop

computer, I-phone, a cell phone and a Black

Berry for e-mails

• Transnational in their ways of thinking, working

and expecting the world to be the same.

• Corporations and nations cannot control them

any longer

2020 -Globalization,

speed and strategy

• A global world with many different cultures to understand and adjust to

• The global labour market

• Digital devices help us to work, make decisions, communicate and solve problems regardless of whether we live and work in Denmark or India.

• The only constant is a change in corporate goals, visions, ways of working and new digital communication ways, processing and production.

The future employee at

DHI

• Highly specialized and skilled in specific jobs

(logistical, sales, innovation, organizational

etc.)

• Being able to explain your skills

• Improving digital skills every day of the year

• Understand and respect different cultures and

values – if you don’t you are not fit for the

global world (openness and curiosity)

• Improve your english, dear!

Continued…

• Information overload – what´s trustworthy ?

• The ability to work under changing conditions

every day( people, places and demands)

• A member of the future workforce has to be well

educated and specialized. But education is not

enough.

• You also have to be very selfconfident and

capable of understanding, working,

communicating, decisionmaking in a runaway

world.

Kultur- og

fritidskonference 10. Maj

2011.

Fremtidens aftensskole anno 2020

DOF Region Sydjylland

Fremtidsforsker Marianne Levinsen

Fremforsk, Center for Fremtidsforskning,

www.fremforsk.dk

People are still people!

• Evidens is avaible but the human being is in the

way.( routine, power or best practice)

• Experience is not necessarily a good thing, it

can 1 years of experience mutiplied with 20

years.

• Power - Why some people have it- and others

dont! Jeffrey Pfeffer 2010,

• Professor i Organizational Behavoir, Stanford

Organizations in the

future

Taylor still remains the theoretical

basic for temporary organizational

design of plant and production facilities

Max Webers ideal model of bureaucracy still leads the structuring of modern companies

Why has nothing changes during the last 100 years in a global runaway world? Power in organizations

Building the new organizations requires new building materials!

Organizations in the

future

W.L. Gore Follow your own ideas

All work project work

Self management

Very clear goals to be met by surviving project and ideas

Google 10% own time – find something you want to pursue

Many innovational pipelines at the same time

Big rewards to finders of new, sustainable ideas

Whole Food Teams and track records in teams

Decentralized purchase of inventory and special offers

Management via peers

How do we create an

organization for the future?

Set your employees free and downgrade hierarchies – creates raising productivity

Make innovation a natural part of daily routines (Google: 10% is your own time)

New models of management – measuring productivity and performance instead of personality and likings (W.L. Gore )

Flat, fast and flexible organizations

Be ready to grasp new opportunities – sleep with your boots on

Who eats who?

Darwin: Survival of the fittest

Size is not important and it is not always good to be fast

People plays a vital role in keeping the company fit

Marianne Levinsen

Fremforsk

- Centre for future studies

Kannikegade 18

8000 Århus C

E:mlev@fremforsk.dk

T 86 11 47 44

M 20 67 45 01

uk.fremforsk.dk