Global Megatrends
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Global Megatrends A Snapshot 10% 12% 13% 3% 3% 3% 5% 5% 5% SAARC 6% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% JAPAN USA EU5 CHINA BRAZIL INDONESIA INDIA LAMPEDUSA, AN ITALIAN ISLAND OF 5,500 SEES 6,000 REFUGEES A MONTH LAND FROM NORTH AFRICA IN SEARCH OF SHELTER AND EMPLOYMENT GERMANY HAS AMONG THE LOWEST BIRTH RATES IN THE WORLD AT 8.2 BIRTHS PER 1,000, A LEVEL NOT SEEN SINCE 1946 LINKED IN. 75% OF US HOUSEHOLDS USE SOCIAL NETWORKING DHARAVI IN MUMBAI IS ONE OF THE WORLD’S LARGEST SLUMS WITH NEARLY 1 MILLION PEOPLE CRAMMED INTO AN AREA HALF OF THAT OF NEW YORK CITY’S CENTRAL PARK 350,000. THE NUMBER OF ENGINEERING GRADUATES THAT INDIAN UNIVERSITIES PRODUCE EACH YEAR TWO. THE NUMBER OF COAL POWER STATIONS THAT CHINA COMMISSIONS EVERY WEEK ACCESS + CONNECTIVITY INNOVATION ALMOST-ENTERPRISE APPS SOCIAL NETWORKING MOBILITY COLLABORATIVE COMPUTING WAN ACCELERATION PROCESS AUTOMATION NEW BUSINESS MODELS AUGMENTED REALITY CLOUD COMPUTING NEW BEHAVIOURS MOBILE APPS RECENT TRENDS IN TECHNOLOGY 2002 DATA ANALYTICS SOFTWARE 2001 E.G. WIKIPEDIA E.G. FRIENDSTER 2007 2010 THE WORLD IS CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY as demonstrated through proximate factors of resource scarcity, diffusion of information and technology as well as shifts in economic and political power. This comes at a cost to environmental natural capital and exposes countries to the risk of climate change. Underlining much of these megatrends is the ultimate factor of population growth and changes in demography; more babies are being born in some countries than in others, fewer people have access to education in some countries than in others and cities continue to offer the best opportunities for employment. These disparities force situations and create opportunities for inter-connected megatrends to develop. The rate of technological improvement has increased in a number of disciplines, across industry and management. Whilst technology is increasingly being delinked from its initial purpose and becoming an industry in its own right and creating new opportunities and business models, there are increased pressures for security and transparency. Of the Top 10 Fastest Growing Stock Exchanges in 2009-10, only 3 were in OECD countries $430bn $380bn $370bn $300bn $290bn The operating revenue of many companies are now larger than the GDP of several large, regional powers Countries will increasingly focus on education as a means of ensuring long-term sustainability of their economies PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE LEAVING SECONDARY SCHOOL ARGENTINIANS ON AVERAGE CONSUME 65 KG OF BEEF PER YEAR, COMPARED TO 4 KG FOR CHINESE AND 1.5 KG FOR INDIANS POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE + RISE OF NEW ECONOMIC POWERS + DIFFUSION OF INFORMATION AND TECHNOLOGY RESOURCE SCARCITY + CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS 1 1.75 2 3 4.4 6.5 8.6 9.8 Global water requirements (‘000 km 3 /yr) for food production 1960-2050 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 2030 2050 AUSTRALIA’S TOP TRADING PARTNERS, % SHARE REGIONAL TRADE BLOCS METROPOLITAN AREAS > 10 MILLION POP. (2030) COUNTRIES AT ‘EXTREME’ RISK OF CLIMATE VULNERABILITY COUNTRIES AT ‘HIGH’ RISK OF CLIMATE VULNERABILITY TIA MARIA. A PROPOSED $1 BILLION COPPER MINE IN PERU WAS CANCELLED DUE TO WIDESPREAD LOCAL PROTESTS AGAINST ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE, WHICH SAW 3 PEOPLE DIE 13 MILLION MOZAMBICANS LIVE CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE, WHICH IS AT RISK OF EROSION FROM A RISE IN FREQUENCY OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS LAND USE CHANGE IN NIGERIA WILL SEE A 42%, 35% AND 30% DECREASE IN WOODLAND, FORESTED AREAS AND GRASSLAND BY 2020, IN FAVOUR OF AGRICULTURAL LAND AND SPACE FOR SETTLEMENT RISE OF NEW ECONOMIC POWERS POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE 39% 44% 49% 53% 53% 63% 68% 70% 78% 133% LIMA SE COLOMBIA SE SANTIAGO SE SHENZHEN SE ISTANBUL SE THAILAND SE INDONESIA SE PHILIPPINE SE OSAKA SE SRI LANKA SE 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% CHINA MEX. US CAN. UK JAPAN OECD GER. FRANCE ITALY SPAIN BRAZIL LUX. GREECE PUBLIC PENSION EXPENDITURE AS % OF GDP (OECD) 2010 2050 With improvements in medicine and wider access, people can look forward to longer lives but states will increasingly struggle to support the welfare of its citizens in their later years. RESOURCE SCARCITY DIFFUSION OF INFORMATION AND TECHNOLOGY
Transcript of Global Megatrends
Global Megatrends A Snapshot
10%
12%
13%3%
3%3%
5%
5%
5%
SAARC
6%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
JAPANUSAEU5CHINABRAZILINDONESIAINDIA
LAMPEDUSA, AN ITALIAN ISLAND OF 5,500 SEES 6,000 REFUGEES A MONTH LAND FROM NORTH AFRICA IN SEARCH OF SHELTER AND EMPLOYMENT
GERMANY HAS AMONG THE LOWEST BIRTH RATES IN THE WORLD AT 8.2 BIRTHS PER 1,000, A LEVEL NOT SEEN SINCE 1946
LINKED IN. 75% OF US HOUSEHOLDS USE SOCIAL NETWORKING
DHARAVI IN MUMBAI IS ONE OF THE WORLD’S LARGEST SLUMS WITH NEARLY 1 MILLION PEOPLE CRAMMED INTO AN AREA HALF OF THAT OF NEW YORK CITY’S CENTRAL PARK
350,000. THE NUMBER OF ENGINEERING GRADUATES THAT INDIAN UNIVERSITIES PRODUCE EACH YEAR
TWO. THE NUMBER OF COAL POWER STATIONS THAT CHINA COMMISSIONS EVERY WEEK
ACCESS + CONNECTIVITY
INNOVATION
ALMOST-ENTERPRISE APPS
SOCIAL NETWORKING
MOBILITYCOLLABORATIVE COMPUTING WAN ACCELERATION
PROCESS AUTOMATION
NEW BUSINESS MODELS
AUGMENTED REALITY
CLOUD COMPUTING
NEW BEHAVIOURS
MOBILE APPS
RECENT TRENDS IN TECHNOLOGY
2002
DATA ANALYTICS
SOFTWARE
2001
E.G. WIKIPEDIA E.G. FRIENDSTER
2007 2010
THE WORLD IS CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY as demonstrated through proximate factors of resource scarcity, diffusion of information and technology as well as shifts in economic and political power. This comes at a cost to environmental natural capital and exposes countries to the risk of climate change.
Underlining much of these megatrends is the ultimate factor of population growth and changes in demography; more babies are being born in some countries than in others, fewer people have access to education in some countries than in others and cities continue to offer the best opportunities for employment. These disparities force situations and create opportunities for inter-connected megatrends to develop.
The rate of technological improvement has increased in a number of disciplines, across industry and management. Whilst technology is increasingly being delinked from its initial purpose and becoming an industry in its own right and creating new opportunities and business models, there are increased pressures for security and transparency.
Of the Top 10 Fastest Growing Stock Exchanges in 2009-10, only 3 were in OECD countries
$430bn
$380bn
$370bn
$300bn
$290bn
The operating revenue of many companies are now larger than the GDP of several large, regional powers
Countries will increasingly focus on education as a means of ensuring long-term sustainability of their economies
PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE LEAVING SECONDARY SCHOOL
ARGENTINIANS ON AVERAGE CONSUME 65 KG OF BEEF PER YEAR, COMPARED TO 4 KG FOR CHINESE AND 1.5 KG FOR INDIANS
POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE + RISE OF NEW ECONOMIC POWERS + DIFFUSION OF INFORMATION AND TECHNOLOGY RESOURCE SCARCITY + CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
1 1.75 2 3 4.4 6.5 8.6 9.8
Global water requirements (‘000 km3/yr) for food production 1960-2050
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2015 2030 2050
AUSTRALIA’S TOP TRADING PARTNERS, % SHARE
REGIONAL TRADE BLOCS
METROPOLITAN AREAS > 10 MILLION POP. (2030)
COUNTRIES AT ‘EXTREME’ RISK OF CLIMATE VULNERABILITY
COUNTRIES AT ‘HIGH’ RISK OF CLIMATE VULNERABILITY
TIA MARIA. A PROPOSED $1 BILLION COPPER MINE IN PERU WAS CANCELLED DUE TO WIDESPREAD LOCAL PROTESTS AGAINST ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE, WHICH SAW 3 PEOPLE DIE
13 MILLION MOZAMBICANS LIVE CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE, WHICH IS AT RISK OF EROSION FROM A RISE IN FREQUENCY OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
LAND USE CHANGE IN NIGERIA WILL SEE A 42%, 35% AND 30% DECREASE IN WOODLAND, FORESTED AREAS AND GRASSLAND BY 2020, IN FAVOUR OF AGRICULTURAL LAND AND SPACE FOR SETTLEMENT
RISE OF NEW ECONOMIC POWERS
POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
39%
44%
49%
53%
53%
63%
68%
70%
78%
133%
LIMA SE
COLOMBIA SE
SANTIAGO SE
SHENZHEN SE
ISTANBUL SE
THAILAND SE
INDONESIA SE
PHILIPPINE SE
OSAKA SE
SRI LANKA SE
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
CHIN
A
MEX
.
US
CAN
.
UK
JAPA
N
OEC
D
GER
.
FRAN
CE
ITAL
Y
SPAI
N
BRAZ
IL
LUX.
GRE
ECE
PUBLIC PENSION EXPENDITURE AS % OF GDP (OECD) 2010 2050
With improvements in medicine and wider access, people can look forward to longer lives but states will increasingly struggle to support the welfare of its citizens in their later years.
RESOURCE SCARCITY
DIFFUSION OF INFORMATION AND TECHNOLOGY
