Daily Commodity Roundup as on -...

Date : Wednesday, March 14, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1

Daily Commodity Roundup as on Wednesday, March 14, 2018


NIKKEI21794

-0.27 -0.13 -0.79USDINR

64.99 S&P INDEX

2783

DJIA25179

-0.18 0.05 -0.62SENSEX

33857NIFTY

10427

$ INDEX89.61

0.12 0.23 -0.08LME

ALUMINIUM

2106 LME LEAD

2405

13900

0.32 -0.09 0.11LME

COPPER6975 LME

ZINC3293

INTE

RN

ATI

ON

AL

MA

RK

ET U

PD

ATE GOLD $

1327.80SILVER $

USDJPY106.421

0.1 0.11 -0.04EURUSD

1.2404GBPUSD

1.39816

LME NICKEL

16.62CRUDE $

60.55

0.12 0.34 -1.32

####

RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2


Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 30169-30513.U.S. consumer prices cooled in February, the latest indication that an anticipated pickup in inflation probably will be only gradual.Markets are looking to the next Fed meeting for direction on the pace of U.S. interest rate hikes this year. Investors have moved to pricing in a March 2019 rate rise by ECB, whose dovish, go-slow message has persuaded markets to wipe out bets on an earlier move.

Gold prices turned positive as the U.S. dollar lost ground after news that U.S. President Donald Trump replaced Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

Gold on MCX settled up 0.15% at 30377 as prices saw some safe-havendemand due to increasing concerns about turmoil in the Trumpadministration. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was fired byPresident Trump prompted some fresh safe-haven in gold and silvermarkets. The firing of a Trump cabinet official comes on the heels ofTrump’s chief economic advisor quitting last week. Other lower-levelTrump administration officials have also hit the exit doors recently. Nowmore than ever there is the perception that the Trump presidency is inchaos. U.S. consumer prices cooled in February amid a decline in gasolineprices and a moderation in the cost of rental accommodation, the latestindication that an anticipated pickup in inflation probably will be onlygradual. Trump is seeking to impose tariffs on up to $60 billion of Chineseimports and will target the technology and telecommunications sectors,two people who had discussed the issue with the Trump administrationsaid. Investors have moved to pricing in a March 2019 rate rise by theEuropean Central Bank, whose dovish, go-slow message has persuadedmarkets to wipe out bets on an earlier move. Gold was sold at a discountin India as demand remained subdued for a fourth straight week whilebuying in the rest of Asia picked up as prices fell for a third consecutiveweek. India's gold imports in February dropped a quarter from a year agoto 63 tonnes as higher prices curtailed demand in the world's second-biggest consumer of bullion. Technically now Gold is getting support at30273 and below same could see a test of 30169 level, And resistance isnow likely to be seen at 30445, a move above could see prices testing30513.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

30322

SUPPORT 3

30617 30513 30445 30273 30169 30101

30409 30237 30377 0.15 5907

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

MCX Gold Apr 2018

####

SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 38470-39120.Also adding to positive sentiment on prices was an inflation report that while in-line with forecasts did little.President Donald Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, after a falling out on how best to tackle the Iran nuclear deal.U.S. inflation expectations edged higher last month, with one measure hitting its highest level in a year.

Silver prices rose amid an uptick in safe-haven demand on concerns about turmoil in the Trump administration after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was f

Silver on MCX settled up 0.17% at 38821 amid an uptick in safe-havendemand on concerns about turmoil in the Trump administration afterSecretary of State Rex Tillerson was fired. President Donald Trump firedSecretary of State Rex Tillerson, after a falling out on how best to tacklethe Iran nuclear deal. Trump hired Central Intelligence Agency DirectorMike Pompeo as Tillerson’s replacement. Also adding to positivesentiment on prices was an inflation report that while in-line withforecasts did little to lift the prospect of a fourth rate hike being added tothe Federal Reserve's rate-hike projections or so-called dot plot. US datashowed consumer prices slowed down to 0.2% as expected from 0.5% inJanuary, while core prices slowed down as well to 0.2% from 0.3% inJanuary. On a yearly basis, consumer prices accelerated to 2.2% asexpected from 2.1% in January, while core prices steadied at 1.8% in linewith expectations. New Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in hisCongress testimony that hiking interest rates four times this year wouldbe considered a "gradual pace", bolstering expectations of a March ratehike. The economy created 313 thousand new jobs last month, whilewages slowed down, confirming Powell's expectations that labor wouldstrengthen further before improvements in wages. The Federal OpenMarket Committee will meet on March 20-21 under Powell for the firsttime, with policymakers expected to release three-year forecasts forinflation, growth, unemployment, and interest rates. Technically marketis under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.48% to settled at 19415 while prices up 66 rupees, now Silver isgetting support at 38645 and below same could see a test of 38470 level,And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38970, a move above could seeprices testing 39120.


38718 38945

39295 39120 38970 38645 38470 38320

38620 38821 0.17 19415

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1

MCX Silver May 2018

####

SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3838-4054.U.S. crude production, pushed up largely by shale oil drilling, is expected to rise above 11 million bpd by late 2018, taking the top spot from Russia.U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels in the week to March 9, to 428 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute said.U.S. crude inventories are not rising as much as expected during the spring season that is starting, implying healthy demand.

Crude oil prices settled lower as investors feared a ramp up in U.S. shale output would undermine OPEC’s efforts to cut global supplies.

Crudeoil on MCX settled down -1.46% at 3919 pressured by expectationsfor further gains in U.S. crude supply and production, with the EIA set toprovide updated figures on Wednesday. Prices had gained earlier in thesession as President Donald Trump's ouster of Secretary of State RexTillerson was seen as a move that would jeopardize the Iran nuclearagreement. Also sentiments turned bearish after the news that the U.S.government expects major shale regions to boost output by 131,000barrels a day in April, spurring fears that surging supplies will undermineOPEC’s efforts to clear a glut. Sentiment is being soured further by aforecast increase in U.S. inventories, a third consecutive weekly gain.“The EIA report yesterday about the expected increase in shale outputnext month certainly weighed on things,” John Kilduff, founding partnerat Again Capital, said in a phone interview.“And apparent discourseamong OPEC producers, specifically the Iranians, is showing that thepatience is running out with the accord, partly because of what the shaleplayers are doing in terms of grabbing more market share.” Crude oil hasstruggled to recover losses from last month’s broader market slump aftertopping $66 a barrel in January. While a brighter economic outlook hasunderpinned demand expectations, expanding American productionremains a challenge to the OPEC and its allies, which are trying to propup prices via output curbs. In the week ahead, market participants willeye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refinedproducts on Wednesday to gauge the strength of demand in the world’slargest oil consumer and how fast output levels will continue to rise.Technically market is getting support at 3878 and below same could see atest of 3838 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3986, amove above could see prices testing 4054.


3979 4014

4094 4054 3986 3878 3838 3770

3906 3919 -1.46 11661

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1

MCX Crudeoil Mar 2018

####


Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 445.9-454.3.China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in February stood at 352,000 mt, down 20% month on month while up 3.5% year on year.Copper speculators cut their net long position by 12,627 contracts to 28,776 contracts, according to the CFTC data.Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 321475mt that is up by 350mt.


Copper prices gained tracking firmness in LME prices finished 0.5 percent higher at $6,945 amid weakness in dollar.

Copper on MCX settled up 0.16% at 450.95 recovered from the day's lowas support seen after the update that reliable supply of copper from theworld’s largest producer, Chile, is under threat as unions face broad wagerenegotiations across top global miners. Three-month copper on the LMErose 1.9% as workers in the largest union at Antofagasta Plc’s LosPelambres copper mine rejected an offer for a new labour contract,paving the way for striking action. Workers and the company would stillhave to go through a meditation process with the government to reach asecond deal. Strong demand from the growing electric economy could beundermined by supply disruptions if wage contracts can’t be negotiatedacross the major producer. Also China’s lower copper imports in Februaryweakened the sentiment on copper. Yesterday US data showed consumerprices slowed down to 0.2% as expected from 0.5% in January, whilecore prices slowed down as well to 0.2% from 0.3% in January. On ayearly basis, consumer prices accelerated to 2.2% as expected from2.1% in January, while core prices steadied at 1.8% in line withexpectations. While New Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in hisCongress testimony that hiking interest rates four times this year wouldbe considered a "gradual pace", bolstering expectations of a March ratehike. While traders are eyeing on the Federal Open Market Committee willmeet on March 20-21 under Powell for the first time, with policymakersexpected to release three-year forecasts for inflation, growth,unemployment, and interest rates. Technically now Copper is gettingsupport at 448.4 and below same could see a test of 445.9 level, Andresistance is now likely to be seen at 452.6, a move above could seeprices testing 454.3.


449.85

SUPPORT 3

456.8 454.3 452.6 448.4 445.9 444.2

451.80 447.65 450.95 0.16 9754

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

MCX Copper Apr 2018

####


Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 210.6-215.8.Brazilian miner Nexa Resources SA said that it has reached a deal to end a workers' strike at its Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru. The spread of cash zinc to the three-month contract moved to a $3.50 discount for cash from a premium of nearly $50 in late FebruaryWarehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 197500mt that is down by -2500mt.


MCX Zinc Apr 2018Zinc prices gained after LME zinc rose 1.4 percent to $3,286 due to low level buying amid firmness in other base metals counters.

Zinc on MCX settled up 1.47% at 213.85 gained on fresh buying trackingfirmness from LME Zinc which was the only metal to witness any gainsdespite with negative sentiment stemming from a weaker downstreamstainless steel market weighing on prices. Meanwhile in China, stainlesssteel prices have struggled – some market participants have loweredtheir prices further to draw down their inventories. Weak demand andsoft prices may weigh on if Chinese apparent demand continues to softenin the months ahead. Over the last two weeks, some 300 series-producing stainless steel mills have claimed that they will cut productionin March. While Chinese zinc smelters are increasingly turning towardsNorth Korea as a source of concentrates supply rather than traditionaloverseas partners while treatment charges (TCs) in the internationalmarket remain soft, market observers claimed. While Chinese imports ofzinc ores and concentrates have fallen 32 percent in January-July fromlast year, according to official statistics, North Korean imports havejumped 184 percent, making it China’s third-largest supplier – it hasleapfrogged Mongolia, Morocco and Bolivia. North Korea’s emergence as apartner for Chinese zinc smelters and strong growth in Chinese minedproduction this year could negate mine output cuts from Glencore,Nyrstar and MMG, which have been the main drivers of zinc’s 45-percentprice gain this year. Now technically market is getting support at 212.3and below same could see a test of 210.6 level, And resistance is nowlikely to be seen at 214.9, a move above could see prices testing 215.8.


211.8

SUPPORT 3

217.5 215.8 214.9 212.3 210.6 209.7

214.1 211.5 213.9 1.47 1767

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

####


Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 876.2-910.4.Nickel ore export from the Philippines is expected to drop to 550,000 wmt in February, due to adverse weather conditions.China’s nickel concentrate supplies to grow as new mines in Qinghai province and Russia are set to open in 2020.Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 326364mt that is down by -426mt.


MCX Nickel Mar 2018Nickel prices gained supported by lower inventories of nickel and China's top steelmaking city deepens output curbs to extend war on smog.

Naturalgas on MCX settled down -0.33% at 180.80 while prices wereholding 180 level as colder than normal weather is forecast to cover mostof the United States over the next 8-14 days according to the NationalOceanic Atmospheric Administration. Inventories of natural gas remainbelow the 5-year average but above the 5-year average range. Colderthan normal weather will increase heating demand, which should capnatural gas inventories. A strong weather system and cold blast will track up the Mid-Atlantic Coast and into the Northeast the next few days withheavy rain, snow, and wind. This will result in stronger than normaldemand as highs reach the 30s and 40s. A break will follow Sundaythrough Tuesday as highs warm back into the 40s to 60s. The West willsee a barrage of weather systems that bring heavy rain and snow, alongwith colder than normal temperatures. The southern US will be mostlymild to warm with highs of upper 50s to 70s. Overall, demand will beHIGH. Meanwhile, market participants looked ahead to this week'sstorage data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a draw in arange between 92 and 104bcf in the week ended March 9. That compareswith a decline of 57 bcf in the preceding week, a fall of 53 bcf a yearearlier and a five-year average drop of 97 bcf. Total natural gas instorage currently stands at 1.625tcf, according to the U.S. EnergyInformation Administration. Now technically market is getting support at179.6 and below same could see a test of 178.4 level, And resistance isnow likely to be seen at 182.5, a move above could see prices testing184.2.


887

SUPPORT 3

921.3 910.4 904.2 887.1 876.2 870.0

899.5 882.4 898.1 1.27 12410

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

####


Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 4915-4915.However upside seen limited on expectations of higher supplies of new crop amid increased production outlook.NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 89 tonnes to 8504 tonnes.In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 16312 rupee per 100 kg.


NCDEX Jeera Apr 2018Jeera ended with gains on expectations of strong demand for new crop.

Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -2.1% at 14680 tracking higher arrivalsfrom growing regions at physical market amid ample stocks. Moreover,sluggish demand of cumin and reduced exports have dragged down therates further. Arrivals of jeera in Gujarat was 15,091 tonnes during 1-10Mar compared to 18,638 tonnes last year for the same period. Market isexpecting of higher production this season on reports of higher acreage ofcumin in Gujarat but arrivals are down because of subdued prices. InGujarat, Jeera acreage is up by 37.3% to 3.83 lakh hectares as on 12-Feb-18. Last year, it was 2.88 lakh ha at that same time. As pergovernment data, Jeera exports during first 9 month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Dec) is 107,177 tonnes, up 13.2% compared to last year exports volumefor the same period. India's jeera exports in December were down by 4%on year to 8,497 tn. As per sowing report, current year Jeera sowing areareported increased in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to higher pricesthroughout the year. Expected sowing area to go up by 15-25% inRajasthan and Gujarat, in the current year. As per production estimateJeera production for 2018-19 is estimated at 379,500 MT compared toprevious year’s 314,050 MT. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat,jeera edged down by -416.65 Rupees to end at 16405.55 Rupees per 100kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gainin open interest by 8.14% to settled at 8613 while prices down -315rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14480 and below same could seea test of 14285 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 14905, amove above could see prices testing 15135.


14700

SUPPORT 3

15100 14950 14850 14600 14450 14350

14800 14550 14745 0.44 8808

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

####


Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 6586-6922.Moreover, the report that supplies from the new season turmeric have been lower during first 10 days March at 22,360 tonnes.NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 99 tonnes to 407 tonnes.In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6800 Rupees gained 23.1 Rupees.


NCDEX Turmeric Apr 2018Turmeric prices gained due to increase in demand from spot domestic and overseas market.

Turmeric on NCDEX settled up by 0.65% at 6764 due to increase indemand from spot domestic and overseas market. Moreover, the reportthat supplies from the new season turmeric have been lower during first10 days March at 22,360 tonnes compared to 31,536 tonnes last year,also supported the upward trend in turmeric prices. As per marketsources, Nizamabad turmeric stocks as on now were estimated around1.25 lakh bags as compared to around 2.00 lakh bags same time lastyear. Farmers in Tamil Nadu currently have around 5 lakh bags (1 bag =75kgs) turmeric stocks as compared to last year’s 9 lakh bags. New cropsupply (both early sown/ short duration crop and regular crop) is comingto the market. Sources expects lower Turmeric production current yearamid lower stocks available in the spot market. The price of turmeric wasincreased. All the arrived 800 bags of hybrid turmeric were sold forincreased price. 4,500 bags arrived for sale on Monday including 3,200bags of new turmeric. The buyers have purchased 80 per cent of the newand hybrid turmeric. The arrival of turmeric in the Regulated MarketingCommittee was low with 302 bags and only 35 per cent was sold due toquality. Regarding the price of turmeric it was increased by Rs. 200 aquintal of finger turmeric and Rs. 100 a quintal of root variety in all themarkets. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at6800 Rupees gained 23.1 Rupees.Technically market is under shortcovering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.69% tosettled at 9360 while prices up 44 rupees, now Turmeric is gettingsupport at 6674 and below same could see a test of 6586 level, Andresistance is now likely to be seen at 6842, a move above could seeprices testing 6922.


6666

SUPPORT 3

7010 6922 6842 6674 6586 6506

6834 6666 6764 0.65 9360

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

####


Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1143.5-1254.7.Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1386.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-32.20/-.Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too weighed on mentha oil prices.Also the farmers are bringing their produce in moderate amount to the market which is limiting the upside movement of prices.


MCX Menthaoil Mar 2018Mentha oil prices dropped driven by sluggish industrial demand at the spot market.

Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -3.71% at 1182.9 driven by sluggishindustrial demand at the spot market. Further, ample stocks position onhigher supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too weighed on menthaoil prices. As per traders, the demand for mentha from both the domesticconsuming industries as well as from the export front has not shown anygrowth or positive result. Also the farmers are bringing their produce inmoderate amount to the market which is limiting the upside movement ofprices. The presence and growth of usage of synthetic mentha is alsohampering the demand and ultimately the price movement of mentha.Stock positions of mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around2644 drums which is same in comparison to previous day. According tothe information received from traders, there is currently not muchdemand for mentha from the domestic consuming industries as well asstockists. From export front, there is expectation of not any positivedevelopment in the recent times. Due to the increased production andusage of synthetic mentha in the recent years, demand for naturalmentha has decreased. The presence and growth of usage of syntheticmentha is also hampering the demand and ultimately the pricemovement of mentha. Also as winter season is about to end soon, theseasonal demand for mentha will also decline. Mentha oil spot atSambhal closed at 1386.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-32.20/-.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain inopen interest by 6.74% to settled at 1109 while prices down -45.6rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1163.2 and below same couldsee a test of 1143.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at1218.8, a move above could see prices testing 1254.7.


1225.00

SUPPORT 3

1274.4 1254.7 1218.8 1163.2 1143.5 1107.6

1235.00 1179.40 1182.90 -3.71 1109

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

TIME ZONE Forecast

CommodiME STOCK StockCOPPER 350 321475

ALUMINIU -4700 1301700

NICKEL -426 326364

LEAD -100 131300

ZINC -2500 197500

7:30pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.006 0.004


6:00pm USD Retail Sales m/m 0.003 -0.003

6:00pm USD Core PPI m/m 0.002 0.004

6:00pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.003 0

6:00pm USD PPI m/m 0.001 0.004

3:30pm EUR Employment Change q/q 0.003 0.004

3:30pm EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.004 0.004

1:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks 0 0

2:30pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.001 -0.003

Fresh Buying

LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATADATA Previous

12:30pm EUR German Final CPI m/m 0.005 0.005

TREND Fresh Buying Fresh Buying Fresh Buying Fresh Buying Short Covering Short Covering Short Covering Short Covering

766Cng in OI 3.16 0.92 2.26 0.61 -0.69 -1.81 -5.08 -1.17 13.51

SUPPORT3555 20320 14350 4169 6506 4057 619.0 3655

7813579 20420 14450 4200 6586 4080 623.5 3685 7723621 20540 14600 4255 6674 4120 631.4 3738

635.9 3768 787

8113711 20860 14950 4372 6922 4206 648.3 3851 802

656.2 3904

643.8 3821 796P. POINT 3645 20640 14700 4286 6754 4143

3687 20760 14850 4341 6842 4183RESISTANCE

3753 20980 15100 4427 7010 42463662 20660 14745 4311 6764 4159 639.2 3791

DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL

COMMODITIES NCDEX CHANA Apr 2018

NCDEX Pepper Apr 2018

NCDEX Jeera Apr 2018

NCDEX Guarseed10 Apr 2018

NCDEX Turmeric Apr 2018

NCDEX Rmseed Apr 2018 MCX CPO Mar 2018 NCDEX Soyabean

Apr 2018

NCDEX Ref.Soya oil

Apr 2018790.05CLOSE

350

‐4700

‐426‐100

‐2500

‐5000

‐4000

‐3000

‐2000

‐1000

0

1000

COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC

LME STOCK

NEWS YOU CAN USE

The European Central Bank dropped a long-standing pledge to increase its bond buying if needed, taking another small step in weaning the euro zone economy offprotracted stimulus. Keeping its broader policy unchanged, the ECB said it could still extend its 2.55 trillion euro ($3.16 trillion) bond purchase scheme beyondSeptember if needed. But it omitted a reference to bigger purchases, a signal that it remains on track to end a three-year-old stimulus scheme before the end of 2018.Having revived euro zone growth with lavish stimulus, the ECB has been dialing back support in tiny increments, fearing any big change could unravel its work andforce an embarrassing and economically damaging policy reversal. “The net asset purchases, at the current monthly pace of 30 billion euros, are intended to run untilthe end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with itsinflation aim,” the ECB said in a statement after its regular policy meeting. Euro zone inflation remains stubbornly low. “Our mandate is in terms of price stability.Victory cannot be declared yet,” ECB President Mario Draghi told a news conference. Dropping the ECB’s so-called easing bias is largely symbolic as few if any expectedbigger bond buying. But the move was still seen as a precursor to a broader revision of the bank’s policy guidance, a move flagged in earlier meetings.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that she feared a “tit-for-tat” escalation of trade retaliation over U.S. President Donald Trump’ssteel and aluminum tariffs that would sap business confidence and investment. Lagarde, speaking at a Washington Post forum on women’s issues, said it was not thedirect economic impact from the tariffs that concerned her most, but its role as a “trigger” for retaliatory responses from trading partners worldwide. “It is thatescalation that is in and of itself dangerous for the impact that it has on all those economies, and furthermore for the impact that it has on confidence,” Lagarde said,noting that trade has been an engine of growth that has fueled a stronger global recovery in recent months. “And confidence is a super-precious good that builds overtime and can be destroyed very quickly,” Lagarde said. “If the perception of investors around the world is that this is uncertain, and you never know where the tariffsare going to go, how high, how low, against whom ... then you step back and you don’t invest, you wait and that confidence impact could be significant.” Hercomments followed Trump’s announcement of 25 percent U.S. import tariffs on steel and 10 percent on aluminum. The tariffs are due to start in 15 days and initiallyexempt Canada and Mexico.

Lowering the crop projection, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has reduced the output to 362 lakh bales for the crop year October 2017-September 2018, down 5lakh bales from the February estimate of 367 lakh bales. “The CAI has lowered its cotton crop estimate mainly due to the crop damage on account of severe pinkbollworm infestation in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka and water scarcity in some States,” said Atul Ganatra, president, CAI, in a statement. “This lower productionestimate of 5 lakh bales consists of 2 lakh bales each in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, while production in ‘other States’ is estimated to be down by 1 lakh bales,”Ganatra stated. The projected balance sheet drawn by the CAI estimates the total cotton supply for the season at 412 lakh bales, which includes the opening stock of30 lakh bales and the imports, which the CAI has retained at 20 lakh bales as in the previous month. The domestic consumption is estimated at 330 lakh bales —higher by 10 lakh bales than estimated in February. The CAI has also estimated an increase in exports for the season from 55 lakh bales to 60 lakh bales because of asurge in demand for Indian cotton and increase in ICE futures prices. New York ICE Futures quoted at 84.19 cents for July 2018 contract. The carry-over stock at theend of this season on September 30, 2018, is estimated to be 22 lakh bales which is lower by 20 lakh bales over the previous closing stock of 42 lakh bales.


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