Daily Commodity Roundup as on - Systematix...

Daily Commodity Roundup as on Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Date : Wednesday, September 19, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1

14.18CRUDE $

69.85

0.23 0.43 1.36

IN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

L M

AR

KET U

PD

ATE GOLD $

1201.01SILVER $

USDJPY112.377

0.01 0.00 0.01EURUSD

1.1671GBPUSD

1.31489

LME

NICKEL

12510

0.71 1.35 1.21

LME

COPPER

6134 LME

ZINC

2407

$ INDEX94.60

0.64 0.39 -0.01

LME ALUMINIUM

2042 LME

LEAD

2075

DJIA26062

-0.78 -0.87 -0.35SENSEX

37291NIFTY

11279


NIKKEI23725

0.52 -0.56 1.3USDINR

72.93 S&P

INDEX

2889

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MCX Gold Oct 2018

Gold prices steadied as the dollar eased following news that China would retaliate against a new round of U.S. tariffs on its goods.

Gold prices steadied as the dollar eased following news that China would

retaliate against a new round of U.S. tariffs on its goods. China and the

United States plunged deeper into a trade war after Beijing added $60

billion of U.S. products to its import tariff list in retaliation for President

Donald Trump’s planned levies on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

Investors looked past the latest escalation in the U.S.-China trade

conflict, seen by some market participants as less severe than expected.

Previous developments in the U.S.-China trade conflict had prompted

investors to buy the U.S. dollar in the belief that the United States has

less to lose from the dispute. The U.S. Senate voted overwhelmingly on

Tuesday to pass a mammoth spending package including $675 billion for

the Defense Department and a measure to keep the entire federal

government open until Dec. 7, a step toward avoiding a Sept. 30

shutdown. Traders are increasing bets the Federal Reserve will raise U.S.

short-term interest rates into 2019 as the jobs market tightens and with

inflation seen climbing above its 2 percent goal. The Bank of Japan is

expected to keep monetary policy steady on Wednesday and maintain its

optimistic view on the economy, even as escalating global trade frictions

threaten to chill growth. Prime Minister Theresa May said Britain and the

European Union were nearing a divorce deal but called on the bloc to

show “goodwill and determination” to avoid a disorderly Brexit and secure

a close future partnership. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s

largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.04 percent to 742.23

tonnes on Tuesday. Technically now Gold is getting support at 30648 and

below same could see a test of 30504 level, And resistance is now likely

to be seen at 30932, a move above could see prices testing 31072.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

30707

SUPPORT 3

31216 31072 30932 30648 30504 30364

30928 30644 30793 0.06 7777

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2


Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 30504-31072.

U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 10 percent tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and warned of more tariffs if China retaliated.

Traders are increasing bets the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. short-term interest rates into 2019 as the jobs market tightens.

Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.04 percent to 742.23 tonnes on Tuesday.

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MCX Silver Dec 2018

Silver prices traded in range as the dollar held its ground after the U.S. and China announced their latest round of measures in the escalating trade conflict.

Silver prices traded in range as the dollar held its ground after the U.S.

and China announced their latest round of measures in the escalating

trade conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump said in a statement late

Monday that the U.S. is slapping 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of

Chinese goods and that the tariffs would rise to 25% in January 2019.

China was quick to respond with its own round of tariffs on $60 billion in

American products, which are planned to go into effect simultaneously on

Sept. 24. Trump had previously warned that "if China takes retaliatory

action against our farmers or other industries, we will immediately pursue

phase three, which is tariffs on approximately $267 billion of additional

imports,” suggesting that tensions were on the rise. However, some

commentators suggested that investors had been prepared for the higher

level of 25% that now will be put off until January, providing some

months for officials to advance on negotiations. Furthermore, China’s

tariffs set for implementation next week are also lower than initially

planned, implying that Beijing too will hold off until the U.S. lifts the

levies in January. In a slow week for major U.S. economic data, investors

looked ahead to the next Federal Reserve policy decision to be announced

on Sept. 26. Markets currently expect the Fed to hike rates by a quarter

of a point, while fed fund futures price in an additional increase at the end

of the year at more than an 80% probability. Technically now Silver is

getting support at 37187 and below same could see a test of 36935 level,

And resistance is now likely to be seen at 37675, a move above could see

prices testing 37911.


37300 37659

38163 37911 37675 37187 36935 36699

37171 37438 0.01 25222

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 36935-37911.

Prices were under pressure in recent months despite intensifying trade tensions between the U.S. and its trade partners, as investors turned to the dollar for safety.

U.S. President Donald Trump said that U.S. is slapping 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, and that the tariffs would rise to 25% in January 2019.

Investors are eyeing a meeting by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week at which interest rates are widely expected to be raised.

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MCX Crudeoil Sep 2018

Crude oil jumps as Saudi Arabia said to prefer Brent above $80 per barrel

Crude oil gained after Saudi Arabia indicated it was comfortable with a

higher price range ahead of a meeting between major producing countries

in Algeria. Saudi Arabia said it was comfortable with Brent oil above $80 a

barrel. However, the market was tempered by an escalation in the China-

U.S. trade war that has clouded the outlook for crude demand from the

world's top oil consumers. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo

said that OPEC and non-OPEC countries aim to agree a framework for

long-term cooperation by December, when the oil producers plan to meet

in Vienna. "Our determination is to institutionalise this cooperation and to

get the permanent framework hopefully by December," Barkindo told a

news conference in Fujairah, in the UAE. The global oil supply reached a

record 100 million barrels per day, the International Energy Agency said

in its latest forecast. Crude output from the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries and Russia, rose to a nine-month high in August, to

32.63 million bpd, due to a rebound in Libya production and increases

from Iraq, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, the IEA said. Non-OPEC supply was

also up 2.6 million bpd, led by U.S. production. However ongoing Iranian

and Venezuelan falls in production could risk market tightness, Paris-

based agency said. Increased sanctions from the U.S. against Iran, which

is a member of OPEC, has put pressure on the organization and could

lead to market tightness. Technically now Crudeoil is getting support at

4972 and below same could see a test of 4889 level, And resistance is

now likely to be seen at 5128, a move above could see prices testing

5201.


4983 5118

5284 5201 5128 4972 4889 4816

4962 5055 1.20 8699

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4889-5201.

Russian Oil Minister Novak: OPEC+ may discuss increasing oil output by more than 1 million bpd

Crude-oil production from seven major U.S. shale plays is expected to see a monthly climb of 79,000 barrels a day to 7.594 million barrels a day in October.

Russian Energy Minister says Russia is ready to discuss cooperation with US to balance oil market, but is not holding such discussions at present

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MCX Copper Nov 2018

Copper gained as the latest volley of tit-for-tat tariffs announced by U.S. and China were less harsh than many had feared, easing concerns about a downtick in demand.

Copper on MCX settled up 2.85% at 442 gained sharply on fresh buying

tracking Shanghai and LME copper prices which rose hitting a one-month

high as investors shrugged off an escalation of the U.S.-China trade row.

China responded to the latest U.S. tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods

with tariffs on about $60 billion worth of US goods, as previously planned,

but has reduced the levy it will collect on the products. As per state

media the China is not afraid of "extreme measures" the United States is

taking in the trade war and will use it as an opportunity to replace

imports, promote localisation and accelerate the development of high-

tech products. The three-month copper price closed at $6,086 per tonne

on strong volume, with over 26,000 lots traded by the close – the most in

a month. Fundamental indicators have improved since the start of the

quarter. Exchange inventories (LME, SHFE, Comex) are down sharply in

the quarter to date. The Shanghai copper premium is at its highest since

February 2016, reflecting seasonally strong copper demand because of

post-summer restocking. Last night the US dollar index rebounded as it

recovered from earlier weakness that came after China responded with

new tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods. Now today a day ahead

market participants should monitor data including the US current account

for the second quarter and its EIA weekly crude oil inventory. Technically

market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open

interest by 35.57% to settled at 18181 while prices up 12.25 rupees, now

Copper is getting support at 431.7 and below same could see a test of

421.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 448.2, a move

above could see prices testing 454.3.


430.50

SUPPORT 3

464.7 454.3 448.2 431.7 421.3 415.2

443.95 427.40 442.00 2.85 18181


Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 421.3-454.3.

On-warrant stocks of copper in LME-registered warehouses rose 2,875 tonnes to 145,400 tonnes, but are down from more than 234,000 tonnes in mid-August.

Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) warehouses also fell to the lowest since November at 124,566 tonnes.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 214150mt that is down by -7775mt.


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MCX Zinc Sep 2018

Zinc prices gained as investors shrugged off an escalation of the U.S.-China trade row.

Zinc on MCX settled up 2.02% at 171.85 gained on short covering as Zinc

supply crunch hides in shadow of trade war. Also support seen as

investors shrugged off new tit-for-tat tariffs by China and the United

States to send stock markets higher and the dollar lower. Fears that a

U.S.-China trade war would dampen demand for commodities have

pushed industrial metals sharply lower in recent months, with copper

down 17 percent from a June high. Meanwhile LME Zinc prices has so far

been the hardest hit of all the base metals in 2018, with its value down

over 32 percent year-to-date, even as global stockpiles in London fall

towards the 200,000-tonne mark. As of Monday (September 17), zinc

was trading at US$2,285 a tonne — well down from its starting point in

2018 when it sat at the (comparatively) lofty height of US$3,375.

Yesterday LME zinc closed up 1.3 percent at $2,349 a tonne, rebounding

from Monday’s near 2-year low but butting up against its downtrend line

at around $2,380. Support seen as the global zinc market deficit

deepened to 32,500 tonnes in July from 14,200 tonnes in June, data from

the ILZSG showed. Last night the US dollar index rebounded as it

recovered from earlier weakness that came after China responded with

new tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods. Now today a day ahead

market participants should monitor data including the US current account

for the second quarter and its EIA weekly crude oil inventory. Technically

now Zinc is getting support at 169.9 and below same could see a test of

167.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 173.1, a move

above could see prices testing 174.2.


169.0

SUPPORT 3

176.3 174.2 173.1 169.9 167.8 166.7

172.1 168.9 171.9 2.02 6578


Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 167.8-174.2.

The confidence of Americans in the US economy and their well-being rose towards the end of summer and stood near a 14-year high.

China’s total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 9% from a year earlier, beating a forecast of 8.8%, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 215550mt that is down by -425mt.


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MCX Nickel Sep 2018

Nickel prices rose supported by purchasing enthusiasm downstream improved, with smaller domestic and overseas supplies.

Nickel on MCX settled up 1.03% at 898.10 gained on short covering while

the base metals complex shrugged off the escalating US-China trade

dispute. Now investors reduced concerns over the China-US trade war.

Fresh US tariffs imposed on Chinese goods are expected to cause limited

impact on the downstream stainless steel sector as China barely exports

such products to the US. China responded to the latest U.S. tariffs on

$200 billion of Chinese goods with tariffs on about $60 billion worth of US

goods, as previously planned, but has reduced the levy it will collect on

the products. As per state media the China is not afraid of "extreme

measures" the United States is taking in the trade war and will use it as

an opportunity to replace imports, promote localisation and accelerate the

development of high-tech products. The dollar meanwhile hit its weakest

since late July against a basket of major peers, supporting dollar-priced

metals by making them cheaper for buyers with other currencies. China’s

yuan was steady against the greenback. Last night the US dollar index

rebounded as it recovered from earlier weakness that came after China

responded with new tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods. Meanwhile,

US Treasury yields were also on the rise, to their highest since May for

the 10-year bond. Base metals increased for the most part. LME copper

led the gains and surged 2.36%, zinc rose 1.8%, nickel jumped 0.69%,

SHFE copper grew 1.91%, zinc went up 0.44%, and nickel closed 0.16%

higher. The US NAHB homebuilder sentiment indicates signs of stabilizing

in September. Technically market is under short covering and getting

support at 889.9 and below same could see a test of 881.8 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 905.3, a move above could see

prices testing 912.6.


890.9

SUPPORT 3

920.7 912.6 905.3 889.9 881.8 874.5

904.5 889.1 898.1 1.03 11926


Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 881.8-912.6.

The price spread of high-grade NPI and nickel in the Chinese market turned into discounts as supplies grew significantly in September.

Nickel ore inventories at ports grow to 12.43 million wmt.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 232068mt that is down by -144mt.


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NCDEX Jeera Oct 2018

Jeera prices ended with gains on the back of good domestic and export demand from China and Bangladesh.

Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -1.15% at 19770 on expectations of

higher sowing area under crop in the upcoming sowing season. However,

good export demand after fall in rupee to all time low limited the

downside. India enjoys monopoly over global market in jeera as Syria and

Turkey has lower crop due to bad weather conditions. As per trade

information, crop damaged reported in Syria and Turkey due to heavy

rainfall support Indian Jeera in International market. Quality wise (due to

heavy rainfall) and price wise Indian Jeera more affordable than other

producing country. Lower Jeera supply reported in the spot market during

the period, as stockists were holding back their stocks on expectations of

higher prices in coming days. Jeera supply from last year up by 100%

due to increased production current year. Currently, all India stocks

reported around 25 – 27 lakh bags. According to export data released by

Commerce ministry, exports in June surged 55.7% on year to21,404

tonnes. Moreover, country exports about 75,242 tonnes of Jeera during

Apr-Jun 2018. Jeera arrivals during July are pegged at 8,700 tonnes

compared to 3,800 tonnes last year for same period. India is expected to

export a record 175,000 tn of jeera in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar), primarily

because supply from its competitors has taken a hit making it the sole

supplier of the largely sought after spice. In Unjha, a key spot market in

Gujarat, jeera edged down by -25 Rupees to end at 19675 Rupees per

100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has

witnessed drop in open interest by -0.86% to settled at 7965 while prices

down -230 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 19630 and below same

could see a test of 19490 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at

19940, a move above could see prices testing 20110.


19800

SUPPORT 3

20610 20365 20220 19830 19585 19440

20120 19730 20070 1.52 8151


Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6690-6690.

Rising export demand from China amidst falling arrivals kept supporting the prices.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 30 tonnes to 2927 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 19608 rupee per 100 kg.


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NCDEX Turmeric Oct 2018

Turmeric prices dropped amid anticipation of improvement in production in coming season.

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.12% at 6584 amid anticipation of

improvement in production in coming season. Besides, sluggish demand

from physical domestic and export demands also weighed on the turmeric

prices. As per traders the spot market is likely to get festive demand in

coming weeks which can prompt buying again in turmeric. In Telangana,

Turmeric acreage was reported at 47,114 hectares in the corresponding

period last year. Current sowing stands at 86 percent of normal for the

season. Among major Turmeric growing districts Nizamabad has reported

13,965 hectares in acreage compared to last year’s 12,800 hectares and

Warangal(Rural) has reported 5,521 hectares of average compared to last

year’s 4,250 hectares. As per the Ministry of Agriculture, All India

Turmeric production in 2017-18 estimated as 11.63 lakh tonnes as

against to 61 lakh tonnes estimated in 2016-17. Spot turmeric prices at

the markets in Erode decreased as only medium quality produce arrived.

The poor inflow of the spice did not help in lifting the price. Only 1,100

bags (35 lots) arrived. At the Regulated Marketing Committee, finger

turmeric improved by Rs. 1,000 a quintal when compared to previous sale

price. But at the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association sales yard, finger

turmeric lost Rs. 300. In all the markets, medium quality root variety

fetched higher price. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price

ended at 6927.8 Rupees dropped -17.75 Rupees.Technically market is

under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by

0.17% to settled at 11715 while prices down -8 rupees, now Turmeric is

getting support at 6532 and below same could see a test of 6482 level,

And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6632, a move above could see

prices testing 6682.


6584

SUPPORT 3

6732 6682 6632 6532 6482 6432

6632 6532 6584 -0.12 11715


Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 6482-6682.

In Telangana, Turmeric acreage was reported at 47,114 hectares in the corresponding period last year.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 520 tonnes to 3532 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6927.8 Rupees dropped -17.75 Rupees.


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MCX Menthaoil Sep 2018

Mentha oil prices rallied due to bullish demand outlook from domestic market as well as exporters.

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 0.79% at 1691.7 due to bullish demand

outlook from domestic market as well as exporters. Spot markets are also

witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. Bumper

crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving

upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal stood at

400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies

rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to preliminary

estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton

against last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be chances of

crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition.

Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices

are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in

production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the

demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around

80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production

stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between

30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in

India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. Mentha oil

spot at Sambhal closed at 1833.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by

Rs.1.20/-.Technically market is under short covering as market has

witnessed drop in open interest by -8.91% to settled at 1145 while prices

up 13.3 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1652.3 and below

same could see a test of 1613 level, And resistance is now likely to be

seen at 1714.2, a move above could see prices testing 1736.8.


1691.70

SUPPORT 3

1776.1 1736.8 1714.2 1652.3 1613.0 1590.4

1697.50 1635.60 1691.70 0.79 1145


Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1613-1736.8.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1833.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.1.20/-.

Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies.

Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users.


TIME ZONE Forecast

CommodityLME STOCK Stock

COPPER -7775 214150

ALUMINIUM -5750 1035275

NICKEL -144 232068

LEAD 118075

ZINC -425 215550

3973 22440 20070 4346 6584 4227 594.9 3292

DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL

COMMODITIESNCDEX CHANA Oct

2018

NCDEX Cotton Oct

2018

NCDEX Jeera Oct

2018

NCDEX Guarseed10

Oct 2018

NCDEX Turmeric

Oct 2018

NCDEX Rmseed Oct

2018MCX CPO Sep 2018

NCDEX Soyabean

Oct 2018

NCDEX

Ref.Soya oil

Oct 2018

734.15CLOSE

P. POINT 3954 22480 19975 4288 6582 4215

4008 22540 20220 4403 6632 4257

RESISTANCE

4096 22700 20610 4575 6732 4328

595.1 3270 734

745

4042 22640 20365 4460 6682 4286 600.1 3352 741

602.5 3404

597.5 3322 738

4116 6482 4144 590.1 3188 727

3920 22380 19830 4231 6532 4186 592.5 3240

724

Cng in OI -2.95 -2.68 2.34 -6.14 0.17 6.31 -2.41 -12.57 3.78

SUPPORT

3832 22220 19440 4059 6432 4115 587.5 3158

731

3866 22320 19585

Fresh Buying

LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA

DATA Previous

1:30am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 65.1B -36.5B

TREND Short Covering Long Liquidation Fresh Buying Short Covering Fresh Selling Fresh Buying Long Liquidation Short Covering

11:30am EUR German PPI m/m 0 0

1:30pm EUR Current Account 22.4B 23.5B

Tentative EUR German 10-y Bond Auction 0 0.33|1.2

6:00pm USD Building Permits 1.31M 1.31M

6:00pm USD Housing Starts 1.24M 1.17M

6:00pm USD Current Account -103B -124B

6:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks 0 0

8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.7M -5.3M

0 0 0 0 0


-7775

-5750

-144

0

-425

-9000

-8000

-7000

-6000

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC

LME STOCK

NEWS YOU CAN USE

China said it has no choice but to retaliate against new U.S. trade tariffs, risking even stronger action from President Donald Trump in an escalation of the trade war

between the world's largest economies. Beijing's statement came hours after Trump imposed 10 percent tariffs on about $200 billion worth of imports from China, and

threatened duties on about $267 billion more if China hit back on the latest U.S. action. "To protect its legitimate rights and interests and order in international free trade,

China is left with no choice but to retaliate simultaneously," the commerce ministry said in a brief statement, without specifying what action it would take. "The United

States insists on increasing tariffs, bringing new uncertainties to bilateral trade negotiations. China hopes the United States would recognise the negative consequences of

its actions, and take convincing steps to correct its behaviour in a timely manner." Trump had warned in a statement on Monday that if China takes retaliatory action

against U.S. farmers or industries, "we will immediately pursue phase three, which is tariffs on approximately $267 billion of additional imports." The latest U.S. duties

spared smart watches from Apple and Fitbit and other consumer products such as baby car seats. But if the administration enacts the additional tariffs it would engulf all

remaining U.S. imports from China and Apple products like the iPhone and its competitors would not likely be spared.

The global oil supply reached a record 100 million barrels per day, the International Energy Agency said in its latest forecast. Crude output from the Organization of the

Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia, rose to a nine-month high in August, to 32.63 million bpd, due to a rebound in Libya production and increases from Iraq,

Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, the IEA said. Non-OPEC supply was also up 2.6 million bpd, led by U.S. production. However ongoing Iranian and Venezuelan falls in production

could risk market tightness, Paris-based agency said. Increased sanctions from the U.S. against Iran, which is a member of OPEC, has put pressure on the organization

and could lead to market tightness. The financial sanctions against Iran will target the petroleum sector in November, when a global drop of crude supply is expected.

OPEC agreed in June to raise output at a nominal increase of 1 million barrels a day (bpd) amid pressure from the U.S. to decrease prices. Oil demand estimates were

little changed, with the IEA predicting non-OPEC oil output growing by 2 million bpd in 2018 and 1.8 million bpd in 2019 amid "relentless growth led by record output from

the U.S." Global oil demand is expected to be 100.29 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 99.27 million bpd in the first quarter of 2019.

The US Department of Agriculture has scaled up its estimate for wheat output in India in 2018-19 to a record 99.7 mln tn from its forecast of 97.0 mln tn in AugustThe

new estimate is in line with the government's projection. The agriculture ministry has pegged the country's wheat output for the 2018-19 marketing year (Apr-Mar) at

99.7 mln tn, higher than 98.5 mln tn produced the previous year. The US agency has lowered its forecast for India's wheat imports in 2018-19 to 0.2 mln tn from its

previous estimate of 0.5 mln tn. The previous year, the country imported 1.17 mln tn of wheat, according to the report. The year-on-year decline in wheat imports can be

attributed to an increase in India's import duty to 30% from 20%, as well as estimates of higher output. The department has increased its estimate for global wheat

output in 2018-19 to 733.0 mln tn from 729.6 mln tn estimated in August. The increase in the forecast can be primarily attributed to higher production in India, Russia,

Kazakhstan and countries that were earlier part of the Soviet Union. The agency, however, lowered the estimates for production in Australia and Canada due to dry

weather conditions. The department has raised its estimate for wheat production in Russia in 2018-19 to 71.0 mln tn from the forecast of 68.0 mln tn in August, owing to

favourable weather conditions, the report said. Wheat output in Kazakhstan has been projected higher at 15.0 mln tn, against 14.5 mln tn earlier.



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made as to its accuracy completeness or correctness.

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a link, is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. The information contained in the Report is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient to any third party.

SCSPL generally prohibits its analyst(s), persons reporting to analyst(s), and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the commodities or commodity derivatives that the analyst(s) cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may

provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations

expressed herein. The views expressed in this research report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in

this report. The compensation of the analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by SCSPL however, compensation may relate to the revenues of the Systematix Group as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading are a part. Research analyst(s) and

sales persons of SCSPL may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies).

Foreign currency denominated commodities, wherever mentioned are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively

assume currency risk.

SCSPL, its directors, analyst(s) or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report including but not restricted to changes in the currency rates, reduction in

the income, etc.

SCSPL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities/commodities derivatives thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such

commodities/commodity derivatives and earn brokerage or other compensation (financial interest) or act as a market maker in the financial instruments discussed herein or have other potential material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and

opinions. The views expressed are those of the analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to the views expressed therein.

SCSPL, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without

limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SCSPL, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties. The

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SCSPL shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any technical glitch to present the data. In no event shall the SCSPL be liable for any damages, including without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or

consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by SCSPL through this presentation.

Neither SCSPL, nor any of its other group companies or associates, shall be responsible for any decisions taken on the basis of this report. Investors are advised to consult their Investment and Tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report.

Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited.:

Registered and Corporate address: The Capital, A-wing, No. 603 – 606, 6th Floor, Plot No. C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051

CIN - U01119MH1994PTC266348 | MCX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 | NCDEX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 Member Code: MCX: 29790 | NCDEX: 534

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