Daily Commodity Roundup as on - Systematix...

Daily Commodity Roundup as on Friday, September 07, 2018

Date : Friday, September 07, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1

14.10CRUDE $

67.77

0.04 -0.21 -1.38

IN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

L M

AR

KET U

PD

ATE GOLD $

1200.34SILVER $

USDJPY110.595

0.01 -0.01 -0.07EURUSD

1.1624GBPUSD

1.29257

LME

NICKEL

12355

-0.92 -0.27 -0.92

LME

COPPER

5854 LME

ZINC

2432

$ INDEX95.01

0.27 0.10 -0.01

LME ALUMINIUM

2052 LME

LEAD

2045

DJIA25975

0.59 0.52 0.09SENSEX

38243NIFTY

11537


NIKKEI22175

0.31 -0.28 -1.39USDINR

72.13 S&P

INDEX

2889

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MCX Gold Oct 2018

Gold prices rose propelled by a weaker dollar, short-covering and physical buying in Asia.

Gold on MCX settled up 0.77% at 30547 as the dollar fell against the yen

on fears that U.S. President Donald Trump would take up trade issues

with Japan as the markets braced for another round of U.S. tarriffs on

China. The dollar extended losses against the yen after reports that U.S.

President Donald Trump told a Wall Street Journal columnist he might

take on trade issues with Japan. Another big worry for investors was the

end of a public consultation period over trade, after which U.S. President

Donald Trump could impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese

goods. China’s commerce ministry warned that the country would

retaliate against any new tariff measures.. Trump had said on Wednesday

that the United States was not yet ready to come to an agreement with

China. Investors also awaited news from U.S.-Canada talks about

revamping the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). A few

stubborn issues stood in the way of a deal, including dairy, protection for

media companies, and how to solve future trade disputes. The ADP

National Employment Report showed private payrolls increased by

163,000 jobs last month. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs)

experienced outflows in North America during August, but recorded

inflows in Europe and Asia as a strong U.S. dollar helped weaken U.S.

gold prices, and investors hedged global trade risks and currency

weakness, the World Gold Council said. Markets will be closely watching a

U.S. employment report due on Friday for clues on the pace of interest

rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Technically now Gold is getting

support at 30398 and below same could see a test of 30249 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 30698, a move above could see

prices testing 30849.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

30400

SUPPORT 3

30998 30849 30698 30398 30249 30098

30700 30400 30547 0.77 8663

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2


Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 30249-30849.

Germany would be ready to accept a less detailed agreement on the UK’s future economic and trade ties with the EU in a bid to get a Brexit deal done.

Physical demand has been a bit higher in India as this is a peak season for buying gold due to weddings and festivals

Markets already expect the Fed to hike interest rates by a quarter point at the next policy meeting on Sept. 25-26.

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MCX Silver Dec 2018

Silver prices rose as the safe-haven metal finally sparked buyer interest amid U.S.-China trade worries.

Silver on MCX settled up 0.31% at 37151 as the safe-haven metal finally

sparked buyer interest amid U.S.-China trade worries, while a weaker-

than-expected reading on job creation also helped reduce worries over a

faster pace of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The softer dollar

helped prices, though markets’ focus remained centered on the U.S. -

China trade dispute amid fears that an escalation could be imminent. U.S.

President Donald Trump could slap tariffs on an additional $200 billion

worth of imports from China when a public consultation period ends later

Thursday. China has warned that it will retaliate if the U.S. imposes fresh

tariffs on its goods. The number of Americans filing for unemployment

benefits fell to near a 49-year low last week, suggesting sustained

strength in the labour market that should continue to underpin economic

growth. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to

a seasonally adjusted 203,000 for the week ended Sep 1, the lowest

since December 1969. The four-week moving average of initial claims,

considered a better measure of the labour market trends as it factors out

week-to-week volatility, fell 2,750 last week to 209,500, also the lowest

since December 1969. Markets already expect the Fed to hike interest

rates by a quarter point at the next policy meeting on Sept. 25-26. Fed

fund futures currently put the probability of an additional increase in

December at just above 70%, according to Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in

open interest by 0.77% to settled at 27721 while prices up 116 rupees,

now Silver is getting support at 37009 and below same could see a test of

36868 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 37368, a move

above could see prices testing 37586.


37120 37445

37727 37586 37368 37009 36868 36650

37086 37151 0.31 27721

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 36868-37586.

A weaker-than-expected reading on job creation also helped reduce worries over a faster pace of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

The softer dollar helped prices, though markets’ focus remained centered on the U.S. - China trade dispute amid fears that an escalation could be imminent.

Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 0.91% i.e. 93.57 tonnes to 10348.67 tonnes from 10255.10 tonnes.

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MCX Crudeoil Sep 2018

Crude oil prices settled lower as a draw in U.S. crude supplies was offset by sharp builds in product inventories.

Crudeoil on MCX settled down -1.01% at 4884 as a draw in U.S. crude

supplies was offset by sharp builds in product inventories. U.S.

commercial crude oil inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels to 401.49

million barrels in the week to Aug. 31, the lowest since February 2015,

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed. Despite that,

analysts said prices were curbed by a rise in refined product stocks and a

relatively weak U.S. peak fuel consumption season this summer. Gasoline

stocks rose by 1.8 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles , which

include diesel and heating oil, climbed by 3.1 million barrels, the EIA data

showed. U.S. crude oil production last week remained at a record 11

million barrels per day (bpd), a level it has largely been at since July. The

build in products emerged as refinery activity rose to 96.6% of their

capacity last week from 96.3% the prior week, with crude inputs

averaging about 17.65 million barrels per day during, up 0.081 million

barrels from the prior week, the EIA said. Oil prices were also pressured

by concerns that U.S.-China trade war could intensify as traders await

confirmation on whether the Trump administration will move ahead with a

25% tariff on $200 billion more of Chinese imported goods. China, the

world's largest oil importer, has seen its economic growth wane in the

wake of a trade dispute with the U.S., and some fear that another round

of tariffs on Beijing could exacerbate the decline, pressuring oil demand

growth. Technically now Crudeoil is getting support at 4818 and below

same could see a test of 4751 level, And resistance is now likely to be

seen at 4962, a move above could see prices testing 5039.


4948 4972

5106 5039 4962 4818 4751 4674

4828 4884 -1.01 14081

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4751-5039.

Inventories of U.S. crude fell by 4.302 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 31, beating expectations for a draw of 1.294 million barrels

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it expected global oil demand to break through 100 million bpd for the first time this year.

Meanwhile, there are concerns that U.S. sanctions against Iran, which will target the OPEC-member's oil industry from November, will tighten global supply.

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MCX Copper Nov 2018

Copper rose as a weaker dollar underpinned prices even as bearish sentiment lingered amid a trade war between the United States and top metals consumer China.

Copper on MCX settled up 1.13% at 424.40 gained in the line of

expectation on short covering tracking firmness from LME Copper prices

which were up by approximately 1% at the close of trading on Thursday

September 6, propped up by a raft of fresh buying and a softer dollar

index, while a downswing in aluminium prices came amid escalating US-

Sino trade tensions. Copper price continues to battle strong

macroeconomic headwinds, namely the persistent trade rift between the

United States and China, which is capping investment and driving prices

lower. However, concerns of China’s tough stance on trade disputes with

the US continue to weigh on investors and the market. With more than

100,000 tonnes booked for removal since August 20, total on-warrant

copper inventory remains at its lowest level since December 2017.

Appreciating by more than 1% over the morning, copper’s three-month

price recovered losses made at Wednesday’s close, climbing back toward

$6,000 per tonne while total on-warrant material remains at its lowest

level since Dec 2017 at 146,600 tonnes. Last night the US dollar index fell

below 95 this followed after St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President

James Bullard said on Wednesday that the US Fed should hold off on

further interest rate hikes because the stance of monetary policy is

already at neutral or possibly restrictive. Concerns about new US trade

tariffs on China also cast a shadow on the market. Base metals saw

mixed trades. LME zinc grew 0.87% and copper increased 0.44%. Other

base metals closed slightly lower. Technically market is getting support at

420 and below same could see a test of 415.7 level, And resistance is

now likely to be seen at 429, a move above could see prices testing

433.7.


420.50

SUPPORT 3

438.0 433.7 429.0 420.0 415.7 411.0

429.40 420.40 424.40 1.13 19242


Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 415.7-433.7.

U.S. President Donald Trump said that the United States was not yet ready to come to an agreement over trade disputes with China but he said talks would continue.

Traders await confirmation on whether Trump will impose levies on $200 billion more of Chinese imports, the wider metals market traded mixed.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 254350mt that is down by -7750mt.


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MCX Zinc Sep 2018

Zinc gains as a subdued greenback aided gains offsetting some concerns over the threat of a ramp up in the U.S. China trade war

Zinc on MCX settled up 1.23% at 176.50 gained on short covering

tracking firmness from LME Zinc whcih led on the upside with a 0.9%

rebound propped up by a raft of fresh buying and a softer dollar index. A

weaker dollar underpinned prices even as bearish sentiment lingered

amid a trade war between the United States and top metals consumer

China. The dollar sagged as the pound led a bounce in European

currencies, making the greenback-priced commodities cheaper for

importers holding other currencies. Sentiment was buoyed by the weaker

U.S. dollar, which has been weighing on investor appetite in recent

trading sessions. However, with the ongoing turmoil in emerging markets,

plus weakness in the Chinese equity markets, the metals sector may

struggle to hold their gains in coming days. U.S. President Donald Trump

said on Wednesday that the United States was not yet ready to come to

an agreement over trade disputes with China but he said talks would

continue. The world’s two largest economies have slapped tariffs on $50

billion of each other’s goods in a tit-for-tat trade war, and Trump is

considering imposing tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese imports.

Base metals saw mixed trades. LME zinc grew 0.87% and copper

increased 0.44%. Other base metals closed slightly lower. While a day

ahead market participants should monitor data including the US nonfarm

payroll employment in August, China’s foreign exchange reserves, and

the eurozone's GDP for the second quarter. Technically market is under

short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.8%

to settled at 3835 while prices up 2.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting

support at 175.2 and below same could see a test of 173.7 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 178.5, a move above could see

prices testing 180.3.


175.5

SUPPORT 3

181.8 180.3 178.5 175.2 173.7 171.9

178.9 175.5 176.5 1.23 3835


Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 173.7-180.3.

Resumption after maintenance raised output of refined zinc across Chinese smelters to 418,700 mt in August, up 2.52% from July, but down 6.11% from a year ago.

Total output in the first eight months of the year gained 0.66% on the year and stood at 3.52 million mt.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 235650mt that is down by -1250mt.


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MCX Nickel Sep 2018

Nickel ended with small gains as longs entered the market cautiously on concerns over potential US tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

Nickel on MCX settled up 0.22% at 896.20 gained on fresh buying while

LME nickel remained under pressure with a 0.5% fall. Nickel prices on

MCX seen bounce as support seen from Rupee weakness where Indian

rupee nose-dived against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, falling below the

72 mark, amid persistent sell-off in emerging markets driven by worries

over global economic growth. The dollar index is consolidating after its

recent rebound and was recently quoted at 95.16. With the dollar paused,

the pressure on other markets has eased. The yuan is treading water

around recent levels and was recently quoted at 6.8369 and most of the

emerging market currencies we follow are consolidating after their recent

significant weakness. Last night the US dollar index fell below 95 this

followed after St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said

on Wednesday that the US Fed should hold off on further interest rate

hikes because the stance of monetary policy is already at neutral or

possibly restrictive. Base metals saw mixed trades. LME zinc grew 0.87%

and copper increased 0.44%. Other base metals closed slightly lower.

While a day ahead market participants should monitor data including the

US nonfarm payroll employment in August, China’s foreign exchange

reserves, and the eurozone's GDP for the second quarter. Technically

market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open

interest by 2.67% to settled at 13594 while prices up 2 rupees, now

Nickel is getting support at 889.8 and below same could see a test of

883.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 903.7, a move

above could see prices testing 911.3.


896

SUPPORT 3

917.6 911.3 903.7 889.8 883.5 875.9

905 891.1 896.2 0.22 13594


Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 883.5-911.3.

The Caixin China services purchasing managers' index (PMI) slipped to 51.5 in August from 52.8 in July.

The US trade deficit rose to a five-month high in July, by 9.5% to $50.1 billion as exports dropped and imports hit a record high.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 236706mt that is down by -324mt.


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NCDEX Jeera Oct 2018

Jeera prices ended with losses on weak demand and prospects of higher sowing.

Jeera prices dropped on weak demand and prospects of higher sowing.

Higher sowing expectations due to good monsoon in the harvesting area

for the year 2018-2019 kept jeera prices under pressure. Fall in demand

from retailers and stockists amid adequate stocks also put pressure on

jeera prices. However, hopes of fresh export demand due to weak rupee

prevented prices to fall further. As per trade information, crop damaged

reported in Syria and Turkey due to heavy rainfall in June support Indian

Jeera in International market. Quality wise (due to heavy rainfall) and

price wise Indian Jeera more affordable than other producing country.

Lower Jeera supply reported in the spot market during the period, as

stockists were holding back their stocks on expectations of higher prices

in coming days. Jeera supply from last year up by 100% due to increased

production current year. Currently, all India stocks reported around 25 –

27 lakh bags. According to export data released by Commerce ministry,

exports in May surged 96% on year to 27,790 tonnes. Moreover, country

exports about 87,115 tonnes of Jeera during Mar-May 2018. Jeera arrivals

during July are pegged at 8,700 tonnes compared to 3,800 tonnes last

year for same period. OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

19650

SUPPORT 3

19900 19785 19610 19320 19205 19030

19670 19380 19430 -0.87 5472


Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6477-6477.

However, hopes of fresh export demand due to weak rupee prevented prices to fall further.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 36 tonnes to 2647 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 19500 rupee per 100 kg.


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NCDEX Turmeric Oct 2018

Turmeric settled down on expectation of higher acreage this year.

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -1.33% at 6664 on expectation of

higher acreage this year. Farmers have planted turmeric on higher area in

all the producing states due to higher prevailing prices. Turmeric area

grew to 16,782 hectare until August 15 from 13,156 hectare a year ago,

data from Tamil Nadu state government showed. In Telangana, turmeric

acreage rose to 47,760 hectare until August 30 from 44,956 hectare a

year ago, data showed. Similarly, in Andhra Pradesh farmers planted

turmeric over an area 16,000 hectares until August 29, up from 14,000

hectares a year ago. Turmeric sowing is up this year in all the producing

centres and crop is in good conditions except in some parts Tamil Nadu.

However, higher yield in other centres will compensate the losses, if any,

in Tamil Nadu. In Telangana, Turmeric sowing reported 45,583 hectares

as compared to 38,254 hectares in the corresponding period last year.

83% sowing completed from season normal. Till now, Nizamabad region

reported 13,993 hectares compared to last year 9,859 hectares and

Warangal (rural) reported 4,453 hectares compared to last year 3,825

hectares. In Andhra Pradesh, Turmeric sowing reported 12,320 hectares

as compared to 7,998 hectares in the corresponding period last year,

68% sowing completed from season normal. The price of the both

varieties of turmeric was decreased again. For want of proper upcountry

demand and also poor quality, the traders quoting decreased price have

purchased for their requirement alone. In Nizamabad, a major spot

market in AP, the price ended at 6961.9 Rupees dropped -23.8

Rupees.Technically now Turmeric is getting support at 6612 and below

same could see a test of 6560 level, And resistance is now likely to be

seen at 6754, a move above could see prices testing 6844.


6778

SUPPORT 3

6896 6844 6754 6612 6560 6470

6792 6650 6664 -1.33 10060


Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 6560-6844.

Farmers have planted turmeric on higher area in all the producing states due to higher prevailing prices.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 50 tonnes to 4567 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6961.9 Rupees dropped -23.8 Rupees.


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MCX Menthaoil Sep 2018

Mentha oil prices ended with gains tracking firmness in spot demand as farmers and stockists have kept their stocks in hopes of an increase in prices.

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 2.71% at 1722.6 tracking firmness in

spot demand as farmers and stockists have kept their stocks in hopes of

an increase in prices. On the other hand, the export demand in the

current time is average, but there is hope for an increase in export

demand due to drop in rupee to lowest level against the dollar. Spot

markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted

supplies. Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and

market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in

Sambhal stood at 400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in

Barabanki supplies rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier.

According to preliminary estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19

would be 40,000-45,000 ton against last year's production of 35,000

tons. There could be chances of crop damage to certain extend due to

unfavourable weather condition. Besides, farmers are likely to hold back

the stocks as the present prices are not remunerative for them. However,

in recent years, the growth in production and consumption of synthetic

mentha has influenced the demand for natural mentha. As per sources,

India contributes around 80% to the total global mentha oil production.

Total global production stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India

produces between 30,000-40,000 tonnes. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal

closed at 1883.40 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.40.80/-.Technically

market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open

interest by -6.89% to settled at 1447 while prices up 45.5 rupees, now

Menthaoil is getting support at 1694 and below same could see a test of

1665.3 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1739.4, a move

above could see prices testing 1756.1.


1683.20

SUPPORT 3

1784.8 1756.1 1739.4 1694.0 1665.3 1648.6

1727.40 1682.00 1722.60 2.71 1447


Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1665.3-1756.1.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1883.40 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.40.80/-.

On the other hand, the export demand in the current time is average, but there is hope for an increase in export demand due to drop in rupee to lowest level against the dollar.

Arrivals in Sambhal stood at 400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier.


TIME ZONE Forecast

CommodityLME STOCK Stock

COPPER -7750 254350

ALUMINIUM -1750 1062700

NICKEL -324 236706

LEAD 125 121625

ZINC -1250 235650

3991 22790 19430 4380 6664 4103 606.5 3254

DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL

COMMODITIESNCDEX CHANA Oct

2018

NCDEX Cotton Oct

2018

NCDEX Jeera Oct

2018

NCDEX Guarseed10

Oct 2018

NCDEX Turmeric

Oct 2018

NCDEX Rmseed Oct

2018MCX CPO Sep 2018

NCDEX Soyabean

Oct 2018

NCDEX

Ref.Soya oil

Oct 2018

749.3CLOSE

P. POINT 4011 22823 19495 4396 6702 4095

4060 22876 19610 4430 6754 4115

RESISTANCE

4178 23016 19900 4512 6896 4146

605.5 3246 749

759

4129 22963 19785 4478 6844 4126 611.4 3282 755

614.9 3304

609.0 3268 753

4314 6560 4064 599.6 3210 743

3942 22736 19320 4348 6612 4084 603.1 3232

741

Cng in OI 6.42 -0.18 5.74 1.89 26.14 3.65 -5.76 2.87 3.84

SUPPORT

3824 22596 19030 4266 6470 4053 597.2 3196

747

3893 22683 19205

Fresh Buying

LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA

DATA Previous

11:30am EUR German Industrial Production m/m 0.002 -0.009

TREND Fresh Selling Long Liquidation Fresh Selling Fresh Buying Fresh Selling Fresh Buying Short Covering Fresh Buying

11:30am EUR German Trade Balance 19.1B 19.3B

12:15pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance -58.8B -58.9B

12:15pm EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.002 0.006

12:15pm EUR French Trade Balance -5.7B -6.2B

1:30pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m 0.002 -0.002

2:30pm EUR Revised GDP q/q 0.004 0.004

All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings 0 0

6:00pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.003 0.003

6:00pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 191K 157K


-7750

-1750

-324

125

-1250

-9000

-8000

-7000

-6000

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC

LME STOCK

NEWS YOU CAN USE

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vowed to proceed with next year’s scheduled sales tax hike “by all means” and take steps to ease an expected hit to consumption

from the higher levy. Abe said his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won last year’s lower house election with a pledge to use proceeds from the sales tax increase to

make Japan’s social welfare system more sustainable. “We must accomplish this by all means,” Abe said in an interview with the economic daily, referring to his plan to

raise the tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in October next year. Abe twice postponed the tax hike after an increase to 8 percent from 5 percent in 2014 tipped Japan into

recession. Abe said the impact of the tax hike to 10 percent will be smaller than that of the increase to 8 percent. He also said the government will take measures to

moderate an expected downturn in consumption after the hike. Commenting on whether the government could declare an end to deflation even before inflation hits the

Bank of Japan’s 2 percent target, Abe said the key to the decision would be job growth. Japan’s economy is on track to mark its longest postwar expansionary period

thanks to robust exports and capital expenditure. The jobless rate has also slid to record-low levels that analysts say are near full employment. But inflation remains

distant from the BOJ’s price target as companies remain wary of raising prices for fear of scaring away cost-sensitive consumers.

China’s manufacturing activity grew at the slowest pace in more than a year in August, with export orders shrinking for a fifth month and employers cutting more staff, a

private survey showed. The gloomy findings reinforce views that China’s economy will cool further in coming months, even as the United States ramps up tariffs on

Chinese goods. That is likely to prompt more spending and other growth boosting steps from Beijing. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

fell to 50.6 in August from July’s 50.8, matching forecasts. Though the index remained above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction for the 15th

consecutive month, it was the weakest since June 2017. While output improved modestly, most of the other readings were lackluster. The economy was already showing

signs of stress before the U.S. trade row flared. A regulatory crackdown on financial risks and debt was pushing up borrowing costs and making it tougher for firms to get

funding, sparking a growing number of defaults. But the steady reports of weaker export orders suggest the deepening trade dispute is now adding to that pressure, with

the impact starting to ripple through to China’s factory floors. New export orders - an indicator of future activity — have contracted for the longest stretch since the first

half of 2016, the Caixin PMI showed.

India is likely to export 7 million bales of cotton in 2018/19, down 30 percent from an earlier estimate, as scanty rainfall and an attack of pink bollworms are likely to

squeeze crop yields, the head of a leading trade body told. Lower shipments from the world’s biggest producer of the fibre amid rising demand from top consumer China

could support global prices, which on Monday were trading near their lowest level in over four months. A drop in planting area and the pest attack will limit overseas sales

to 7 million bales in the marketing year starting on Oct. 1, down from 7.2 million bales in the current crop year, said Atul Ganatra, president of the Cotton Association of

India. “In Gujarat and Maharashtra, rainfall was lower than normal. In some pockets, pink bollworm attacks have also been reported,” said Ganatra, who had forecast

exports of 10 million bales in June. Gujarat and Maharashtra account for more than half of the country’s total cotton production. Some regions of these two states

received as much as 22 percent less rainfall than normal, according to data compiled by India Meteorological Department. Export demand for shipments in 2018/19 is

robust but we could not sign deals due to uncertainty over crop size, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.



The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is

made as to its accuracy completeness or correctness.

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All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as on the date of the report and these, plus any other information contained in the report, are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without

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or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject to Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited (SCSPL) or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such

country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S.Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or

Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. Any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure of this report including, but not limited to, redistribution by electronic mail, posting of the report on a website or page, and/or providing to a third party

a link, is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. The information contained in the Report is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient to any third party.

SCSPL generally prohibits its analyst(s), persons reporting to analyst(s), and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the commodities or commodity derivatives that the analyst(s) cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may

provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations

expressed herein. The views expressed in this research report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in

this report. The compensation of the analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by SCSPL however, compensation may relate to the revenues of the Systematix Group as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading are a part. Research analyst(s) and

sales persons of SCSPL may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies).

Foreign currency denominated commodities, wherever mentioned are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively

assume currency risk.

SCSPL, its directors, analyst(s) or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report including but not restricted to changes in the currency rates, reduction in

the income, etc.

SCSPL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities/commodities derivatives thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such

commodities/commodity derivatives and earn brokerage or other compensation (financial interest) or act as a market maker in the financial instruments discussed herein or have other potential material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and

opinions. The views expressed are those of the analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to the views expressed therein.

SCSPL, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without

limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SCSPL, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties. The

Report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the Report refers to website material of the Company, the Company has not reviewed the linked site. Accessing such website or following such link through the report or the website of

the Company shall be at your own risk and the Company shall have no liability arising out of, or in connection with, any such referenced website

SCSPL shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any technical glitch to present the data. In no event shall the SCSPL be liable for any damages, including without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or

consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by SCSPL through this presentation.

Neither SCSPL, nor any of its other group companies or associates, shall be responsible for any decisions taken on the basis of this report. Investors are advised to consult their Investment and Tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report.

Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited.:

Registered and Corporate address: The Capital, A-wing, No. 603 – 606, 6th Floor, Plot No. C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051

CIN - U01119MH1994PTC266348 | MCX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 | NCDEX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 Member Code: MCX: 29790 | NCDEX: 534

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