Daily Commodity Roundup as on - Systematix...

Date : Monday, August 27, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1

Daily Commodity Roundup as on Monday, August 27, 2018


NIKKEI22760

-0.28 -0.17 0.7USDINR

69.94 S&P

INDEX

2857

DJIA25657

-0.22 -0.22 -0.30SENSEX

38252NIFTY

11557

$ INDEX95.07

0.68 0.90 -0.57

LME ALUMINIUM

2084 LME

LEAD

2079

13420

1.74 2.47 1.36

LME

COPPER

6069 LME

ZINC

2526

IN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

L M

AR

KET U

PD

ATE GOLD $

1207.21SILVER $

USDJPY111.075

0.1 0.16 -0.13EURUSD

1.1632GBPUSD

1.28598

LME

NICKEL

14.85CRUDE $

68.60

0.11 0.44 1.14

#

#

#

#

RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2


Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 29416-30210.

Prices remained supported as dollar slipped amid U.S.-China trade talks and as U.S. President Trump criticized the U.S. Fed’s plan to raise interest rates.

Demand for physical gold was modest in India while interest for the metal remained lacklustre elsewhere in Asia as buyers awaited a dip in prices.

A rise in activity in gold options amid geopolitical tensions and a record-long bull market for U.S. equities suggests that investors are betting gold prices have found a floor.

Gold prices rose as the dollar came under pressure from clues about the direction of U.S. monetary policy from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Gold on MCX settled up 1% at 29903 as the dollar came under pressure

from clues about the direction of U.S. monetary policy from Federal

Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which market watchers interpreted as

dovish. Prices also remained supported as the U.S. dollar slipped amid

U.S.-China trade talks and as U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the

U.S. Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates. Trump’s criticism of

the Fed’s intention to raise rates weakened the U.S. currency. Demand

for physical gold was modest in India in the week as the top bullion

consuming state of Kerala coped with floods, while interest for the metal

remained lacklustre elsewhere in Asia as buyers awaited a dip in prices.

Dealers in India were charging a premium of up to $1.25 an ounce over

official domestic prices this week, compared to a premium of $1 the last

week. In top consumer China, premiums rose to $6-$8 an ounce in the

week from last week’s $3 to $5, while premiums in Hong Kong were little

changed at 90 cents-$1.40 versus 90 cents to $1.50 previously. A rise in

activity in gold options amid geopolitical tensions and a record-long bull

market for U.S. equities suggests that investors are betting gold prices

have found a floor. Open interest in Comex gold call options giving the

holder a right to buy the metal at $1,200 per ounce in December 2018,

surged in the week to a record 1,136 contracts, from 79 contracts on July

31, the largest in at least two years. Technically now Gold is getting

support at 29659 and below same could see a test of 29416 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 30056, a move above could see

prices testing 30210.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

29600

SUPPORT 3

30453 30210 30056 29659 29416 29262

29967 29570 29903 1.00 7984

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

MCX Gold Oct 2018

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SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 36293-37485.

The dollar was also knocked by ongoing political uncertainty in Washington as traders assess the impact of President Donald Trump's growing legal concerns.

The plunging dollar helped to overshadow concerns over the U.S.-China trade war after talks in the week led to little progress, though this outcome was widely expected.

Hedge funds and money managers raised their net short position in silver futures and options, U.S. CFTC data showed.

Silver prices gained after a plunge in the dollar supported a broad-based rally in metals following a dovish speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Silver on MCX settled up 1.08% at 37004 after a plunge in the dollar

supported a broad-based rally in metals following a dovish speech from

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell all

but dismissed any notion that the Federal Reserve would step up the pace

of rate hikes, insisting that the current pace of gradual rate hikes were

appropriate as there were no "clear signs" of an elevated risk of the

economy overheating. That prompted a sharp retreat in the dollar as

investors reined in some of their bullish bets on continued upside in the

greenback, sending prices soaring. The Federal Reserve should stop

raising interest rates now because the economy is showing no signs of

inflation surging and is expected to slow next year after the effects of

fiscal stimulus wear off, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said. The

dollar was also knocked by ongoing political uncertainty in Washington as

traders assess the impact of President Donald Trump's growing legal

concerns after his former lawyer Michael Cohen implicated him in crimes.

The plunging dollar helped to overshadow concerns over the U.S.-China

trade war after talks in the week led to little progress, though this

outcome was widely expected. Hedge funds and money managers raised

their net short position in silver futures and options, U.S. Commodity

Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. Hedge funds and

money managers raised their net short position in silver by 5,186

contracts to 25,373 contracts, the largest since early April, CFTC data

showed. Technically now Silver is getting support at 36648 and below

same could see a test of 36293 level, And resistance is now likely to be

seen at 37244, a move above could see prices testing 37485.


36598 37130

37840 37485 37244 36648 36293 36052

36534 37004 1.08 20836

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1

MCX Silver Sep 2018

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SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4735-4891.

The supply versus demand outlook for oil markets was relatively tight because of the looming U.S. sanctions against Iran, which will target oil exports from November.

OPEC and other oil exporting producers are expected to agree on a mechanism to monitor their crude production before the end of the year, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Bakhit al-Rashidi said.

OPEC has started to boost supplies following a deal with Russia and other allies in June, although producers have been cautious so far.

Crude oil prices gained on signs that Iran sanctions may limit global supply and that a trade war may not curb China’s appetite for U.S. crude.

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 0.63% at 4804 on signs that Iran sanctions

may limit global supply and that a trade war may not curb China’s

appetite for U.S. crude. Oil prices also drew support from the prospect of

a drop in crude exports from Iran in response to new U.S. sanctions on

the No. 3 producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting

Countries. The supply versus demand outlook for oil markets was

relatively tight because of the looming U.S. sanctions against Iran, which

will target oil exports from November. Iran is the third-biggest producer

within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC),

exporting on average around 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude

and condensate this year, equivalent to around 2.5 percent of global

consumption. OPEC and other oil exporting producers are expected to

agree on a mechanism to monitor their crude production before the end

of the year, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Bakhit al-Rashidi said. A committee set

up by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied

non-OPEC exporters would review their crude output at a meeting in

Algeria next month, he told reporters while touring an electricity station.

OPEC has started to boost supplies following a deal with Russia and other

allies in June, although producers have been cautious so far. Saudi Arabia

told OPEC it cut supply in July, rather than increasing output as expected.

Signs of tighter supply countered concern about slowing oil demand

stemming partly from the trade dispute between the United States and

China, the world's two largest economies. Technically now Crudeoil is

getting support at 4769 and below same could see a test of 4735 level,

And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4847, a move above could see

prices testing 4891.


4790 4857

4925 4891 4847 4769 4735 4691

4779 4804 0.63 11730

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1

MCX Crudeoil Sep 2018

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Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 408.9-422.5.

The global world refined copper market showed a 31,000-tonne deficit in May, compared with a 105,000-tonne deficit in April, ICSG said.

China's copper producers and traders are riding an unexpected surge of business that has pushed physical prices to their highest in nearly two years.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 267075mt that is up by 125mt.


Copper gained on a softer dollar, though worries about Chinese demand capped gains as the country’s trade dispute with the United States drags on.

Copper on MCX settled up 1.34% at 416.25 on a softer dollar, though

worries about Chinese demand capped gains as the country’s trade

dispute with the United States drags on. Prices remained under pressure

this month on concerns the U.S.-China trade row will hurt demand for

industrial metals and is heading for its worst month since August 2016.

Federal Reserve officials discussed raising interest rates soon to counter

excessive economic strength but also examined how global trade disputes

could batter businesses and households, minutes of the U.S. central

bank's last policy meeting showed. The global world refined copper

market showed a 31,000-tonne deficit in May, compared with a 105,000-

tonne deficit in April, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in

its latest monthly bulletin. China's copper producers and traders are

riding an unexpected surge of business that has pushed physical prices to

their highest in nearly two years as fabricators rush to buy refined metal

to avoid import tariffs on scrap that kick in. Cancelled warrants – material

earmarked for delivery – for copper in LME-approved warehouses have

risen above 84,000 tonnes, from around 25,000 tonnes last week. The

latest number is about 31 percent of LME copper stocks. Supplies

continued to grow as more imported copper arrived, and this weighed on

spot premiums. Transactions cooled from August 23 as traders demanded

lower offers and as downstream consumers did not hurry to restock.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop

in open interest by -7.47% to settled at 24642 while prices up 5.5

rupees, now Copper is getting support at 412.6 and below same could see

a test of 408.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 419.4, a

move above could see prices testing 422.5.


412.50

SUPPORT 3

426.2 422.5 419.4 412.6 408.9 405.8

418.85 412.05 416.25 1.34 24642

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

MCX Copper Aug 2018

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Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 172.5-181.7.

The global zinc market saw a surplus of 3,000 tonnes in June from a deficit of 26,000 tonnes in May, data from ILZSG showed.

Deliverable zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) fell 29.1 percent from the previous week, according to exchange data.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 247400mt that is down by -1175mt.


MCX Zinc Aug 2018

Zinc prices gained supported by given current 10-year lows of warehouse warrants at SHFE warehouses.

Zinc on MCX settled up 2.12% at 177.95 supported by given current 10-

year lows of warehouse warrants at SHFE warehouses. Deliverable zinc

inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange

(ShFE) fell 29.1 percent from the previous week, according to exchange

data. Decline was the sharpest on record since April 2007. Shanghai zinc

stocks at 34,930 tonnes, the lowest since November 2007, having fallen

by 14,313 tonnes from the previous week. The greenback received a

boost from political uncertainty, a new round of trade tariffs and the

Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting minutes that left little doubt that

the US central bank will further raise interest rates. The signs of strength

in the US labour market have been a key reason behind the Federal

Reserve's ongoing campaign to raise interest rates. Housing market data

has weakened in recent months, with home resales declining in July for a

fourth straight month. The sector has been plagued by rising costs of

building material and shortages of land and labour, which have squeezed

the supply of houses available for sale and kept house prices high. A

significant increase of inventories in east China bolstered social

inventories of zinc across Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong last week.

There was a variety of imported resources in the market in the week as

the import arbitrage window has been open for two consecutive weeks.

The global zinc market saw a surplus of 3,000 tonnes in June from a

deficit of 26,000 tonnes in May, data from the International Lead and Zinc

Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Technically now Zinc is getting support at

175.3 and below same could see a test of 172.5 level, And resistance is

now likely to be seen at 179.9, a move above could see prices testing

181.7.


176.0

SUPPORT 3

184.5 181.7 179.9 175.3 172.5 170.7

178.9 174.3 178.0 2.12 5098

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 920.7-944.5.

U.S. and Chinese officials ended talks with no major breakthrough as their trade war escalated with activation of another round of duelling tariffs on $16 billion.

Nickel stocks in Shanghai bonded warehouses dipped 14% from a week ago to 51,300 mt.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 242604mt that is down by -948mt.


MCX Nickel Aug 2018

Nickel prices gained tracking LME prices gained 1.1 percent to $13,415 after a plunge in the dollar supported.

Nickel on MCX settled up 0.88% at 933.7 tracking LME prices gained 1.1

percent to $13,415 after a plunge in the dollar supported. U.S. and

Chinese officials ended two days of talks with no major breakthrough as

their trade war escalated with activation of another round of duelling

tariffs on $16 billion of each country’s goods. China will keep retaliating

as more U.S. trade tariffs are imposed, but its counter-strikes will remain

as targeted as possible to avoid harming businesses in China, both

Chinese or foreign, Finance Minister Liu Kun told. The plunging dollar

helped to overshadow concerns over the U.S.-China trade war after talks

in the week led to little progress, though this outcome was widely

expected. The dollar was also knocked by ongoing political uncertainty in

Washington as traders assess the impact of President Donald Trump's

growing legal concerns after his former lawyer Michael Cohen implicated

him in crimes. World Bureau of Metal Statistics announced that the Nickel

market was in deficit during January to June 2018 with apparent demand

exceeding production by 22 kt. In the whole of 2017 the calculated deficit

was 76.0 kt. Reported stocks held in the LME at the end of June 2018

were 95 kt lower than at the end of the previous year. Refined production

in January to June 2018 totalled 934.3 kt and demand was 956.1 kt. Mine

production during January to June was 1026.6 kt, 120 kt above the

comparable 2017 total. Technically market is under short covering as

market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.27% to settled at 7609,

now Nickel is getting support at 927.2 and below same could see a test of

920.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 939.1, a move

above could see prices testing 944.5.


932.9

SUPPORT 3

951.0 944.5 939.1 927.2 920.7 915.3

938 926.1 933.7 0.88 7609

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 18687-20087.

India's cumin output fell to 489,000 ton from 503,000 ton a year ago and as a result stocks with traders and farmers are stated to lower.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 278 tonnes to 2737 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera edged down by -191.65 rupees to end at 19696 rupee per 100 kg.


NCDEX Jeera Sep 2018

Jeera settled down tracking weakness in spot demand after prices gained in recent sessions on lower rains in northern Gujarat.

Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -3.61% at 19635 tracking weakness in

spot demand after prices gained in recent sessions on lower rains in

northern Gujarat, good exports demands from China and Bangladesh.

India's cumin output fell to 489,000 ton from 503,000 ton a year ago and

as a result stocks with traders and farmers are stated to lower. As per

trade information, crop damaged reported in Syria and Turkey due to

heavy rainfall in June support Indian Jeera in International market.

Quality wise (due to heavy rainfall) and price wise Indian Jeera more

affordable than other producing country. Lower Jeera supply reported in

the spot market during the period, as stockists were holding back their

stocks on expectations of higher prices in coming days. Jeera supply from

last year up by 100% due to increased production current year.

Currently, all India stocks reported around 25 – 27 lakh bags. According

to export data released by Commerce ministry, exports in May surged

96% on year to 27,790 tonnes. Moreover, country exports about 87,115

tonnes of Jeera during Mar-May 2018. Jeera arrivals during July are

pegged at 8,700 tonnes compared to 3,800 tonnes last year for same

period. India is expected to export a record 175,000 tn of jeera in 2018-

19 (Apr-Mar), primarily because supply from its competitors has taken a

hit making it the sole supplier of the largely sought after spice, trade

officials said. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera remains

unchanged at0 Rupees to end at 19887.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically

now Jeera is getting support at 19340 and below same could see a test of

19045 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 20190, a move

above could see prices testing 20745.


19730

SUPPORT 3

20405 20085 19705 19005 18685 18305

19765 19065 19330 -1.55 6822

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 6788-6960.

Turmeric prices were lower on reports of improved sowing from major growing areas of Tamilnadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 49 tonnes to 4875 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7055.95 Rupees dropped -1.55 Rupees.


NCDEX Turmeric Sep 2018

Turmeric prices ended with losses on optimistic outlook on supplies following improved sowing in key growing areas.

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down -0.15% at 6868 on optimistic outlook

on supplies following improved sowing in key growing areas. Turmeric

prices were lower on reports of improved sowing from major growing

areas of Tamilnadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. In Telangana, turmeric

acreage rose to 46,692 hectare from 41,715 hectare a year ago, State

Government data showed. Overall area under turmeric may increase by

10-15% yearly mainly due to rise in acreage in Telangana, a top grower

of turmeric. In Andhra Pradesh, Turmeric sowing reported 12,320

hectares as compared to 7,998 hectares in the corresponding period last

year, 68% sowing completed from season normal. Spot turmeric prices

decreased at the markets in Erode due to the non-receipt of fresh

upcountry demand. Further, the second turmeric sale season will start by

September, so the farmers, expecting good price for their produce, held

back and brought only medium and poor quality turmeric. Around 2,600

bags arrived for sale and 60 per cent were sold. At the Erode Turmeric

Merchants Association, finger turmeric went for Rs. 5,798-8,222 a

quintal; root variety for Rs. 5,488-7,333. Of the 2,461 bags on sale, 908

were traded. Farmers and stockists were holding back their old stocks on

expectation of higher prices in coming days as current year production is

likely to decline due to lower acreage by 40-45% in Tamil Nadu.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop

in open interest by -1.21% to settled at 14310 while prices down -10

rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6828 and below same could

see a test of 6788 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6914,

a move above could see prices testing 6960.


6906

SUPPORT 3

7000 6960 6914 6828 6788 6742

6920 6834 6868 -0.15 14310

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1703.9-1733.9.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1937.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.8.30/-.

Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies.

Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users.


MCX Menthaoil Sep 2018

Mentha oil prices rallied due to bullish demand outlook from domestic market as well as exporters.

Menthaoil on MCX settled up 0.74% at 1721.7 due to bullish demand

outlook from domestic market as well as exporters. Spot markets are also

witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. Bumper

crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving

upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal stood at

400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies

rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to preliminary

estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton

against last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be chances of

crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition.

Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices

are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in

production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the

demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around

80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production

stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between

30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in

India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. Technically

market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open

interest by 22.02% to settled at 1280 while prices up 12.6 rupees, now

Menthaoil is getting support at 1712.8 and below same could see a test of

1703.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1727.8, a move

above could see prices testing 1733.9.


1710.60

SUPPORT 3

1742.8 1733.9 1727.8 1712.8 1703.9 1697.8

1725.00 1710.00 1721.70 0.74 1280

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

TIME ZONE Forecast

CommodityLME STOCK Stock

COPPER 125 267075

ALUMINIUM -4850 1095125

NICKEL -948 242604

LEAD 175 126725

ZINC -1175 247400

0 0 0 0 0


0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0:00 0 0 0 0

0:00 0 0 0 0

0:00 0 0 0 0

Long Liquidation

LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA

DATA Previous

1:30pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate 101.9 101.7

TREND Long Liquidation Fresh Buying Long Liquidation Long Liquidation Long Liquidation Fresh Selling Short Covering Fresh Selling

727

Cng in OI -4.90 4.21 -0.35 -2.57 -1.21 0.73 -6.12 1.10 -3.17

SUPPORT

3930 23030 18305 4183 6742 4009 591.0 3176

731

4007 23110 18685 4234 6788 4041 592.4 3206 729

4054 23190 19005 4272 6828 4060 593.9 3227

595.3 3257 733

739

4255 23430 20085 4412 6960 4143 598.2 3308 737

599.7 3329

596.8 3278 735

P. POINT 4131 23270 19385 4323 6874 4092

4178 23350 19705 4361 6914 4111

RESISTANCE

4302 23510 20405 4450 7000 4162

4101 23270 19330 4310 6868 4078 595.5 3249

DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL

COMMODITIESNCDEX CHANA Sep

2018

NCDEX Cotton Oct

2018

NCDEX Jeera Oct

2018

NCDEX Guarseed10

Oct 2018

NCDEX Turmeric

Sep 2018

NCDEX Rmseed Sep

2018MCX CPO Aug 2018

NCDEX Soyabean

Oct 2018

NCDEX

Ref.Soya oil

Sep 2018

733.6CLOSE

125

-4850

-948

175

-1175

-6000

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC

LME STOCK

NEWS YOU CAN USE

Germany’s Jens Weidmann is seeing his prospects of becoming European Central Bank president fade, amid signs that trade issues handled in Brussels are eclipsing

Berlin’s concerns about securing its man to steer monetary policy. German business daily Handelsblatt reported on Wednesday that Chancellor Angela Merkel is focusing

on winning the European Commission presidency for a German rather than backing Bundesbank chief Weidmann to succeed Mario Draghi. Asked by Reuters about the

report, Merkel told journalists on Thursday she had taken no decision yet on who she wanted to be the next ECB president. “Discussions about the personal decisions to

be made in conjunction with elections to the European Parliament are now slowly starting to take place,” she told a news conference during a visit to Georgia. “That

means no decisions at all have been taken and the post of European Central Bank chief is to be filled much later, so I can’t confirm any wishes I have. Rather, we will wait

for the developments and then see how the German positions develop.” She might have her work cut out to secure either the ECB or the Commission job for a German

candidate. Both jobs come up next year. Weidmann has a strong central banking profile but has antagonised much of southern Europe. Securing the Commission post

would also not be easy, with many EU states wary of a German taking charge in Brussels. The Bundesbank and a German government spokesman declined to comment on

the Handelsblatt report, and sources close to Merkel have told Reuters it was too soon to determine Germany’s priorities for the European posts.

Japanese manufacturing activity grew at a slightly faster pace in August as domestic demand jumped, a preliminary survey showed, but export orders contracted, adding

to worries about rising trade protectionism. The flash Markit/Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 52.5 in August on a seasonally adjusted

basis from a final 52.3 in July. The index remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction for the 24th consecutive month. However, the flash

index for new export orders fell to 49.3 from a final 50.0 in July to show the first contraction in two months. Japan's economy grew more than expected in the second

quarter, helped by strong household and business spending in a sign that domestic demand is gathering strength. Real wages rose in June at the fastest pace in more

than 21 years, which has also added to hopes that consumer spending will continue to rise.

India's palm oil imports are likely to fall 15 percent in 2017/18 from the year before to their lowest in six years, hit by a hike in import taxes, a weaker rupee and tighter

credit for would-be buyers, a senior industry official told. India in March raised its import tax on refined palm oil to 54 percent to support local farmers. That made palm

cargoes less appealing than shipments of alternative edible oils such as soyoil, sunflower oil and canola oil – at least until import duties on those commodities were raised

to 45 percent in June. In the first nine months of the 2017/18 marketing year that started on Nov. 1, India's palm oil imports fell 9.5 percent to 6.1 million tonnes,

according to data compiled by SEA. In the last three months of the year, imports could be around 1.8 million tonnes, with an average of 600,000 tonnes per month. Last

year, India imported 2.55 million tonnes in the August to October period. That would bring total 2017/18 palm imports to 7.9 million tonnes, down 15 percent on the year.

India now typically relies on imports for around 70 percent of its edible oil consumption, up from 44 percent in 2001/02. Palm oil accounted for as much as 86 percent of

India's total edible oil imports a decade ago, but its share last year dropped to 62 percent and could fall to a record-low of 56 percent this year, according to SEA data.



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a link, is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. The information contained in the Report is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient to any third party.

SCSPL generally prohibits its analyst(s), persons reporting to analyst(s), and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the commodities or commodity derivatives that the analyst(s) cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may

provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations

expressed herein. The views expressed in this research report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in

this report. The compensation of the analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by SCSPL however, compensation may relate to the revenues of the Systematix Group as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading are a part. Research analyst(s) and

sales persons of SCSPL may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies).

Foreign currency denominated commodities, wherever mentioned are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively

assume currency risk.

SCSPL, its directors, analyst(s) or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report including but not restricted to changes in the currency rates, reduction in

the income, etc.

SCSPL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities/commodities derivatives thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such

commodities/commodity derivatives and earn brokerage or other compensation (financial interest) or act as a market maker in the financial instruments discussed herein or have other potential material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and

opinions. The views expressed are those of the analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to the views expressed therein.

SCSPL, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without

limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SCSPL, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties. The

Report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the Report refers to website material of the Company, the Company has not reviewed the linked site. Accessing such website or following such link through the report or the website of

the Company shall be at your own risk and the Company shall have no liability arising out of, or in connection with, any such referenced website

SCSPL shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any technical glitch to present the data. In no event shall the SCSPL be liable for any damages, including without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or

consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by SCSPL through this presentation.

Neither SCSPL, nor any of its other group companies or associates, shall be responsible for any decisions taken on the basis of this report. Investors are advised to consult their Investment and Tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report.

Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited.:

Registered and Corporate address: The Capital, A-wing, No. 603 – 606, 6th Floor, Plot No. C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051

CIN - U01119MH1994PTC266348 | MCX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 | NCDEX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 Member Code: MCX: 29790 | NCDEX: 534

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