Daily Commodity Roundup as on - Systematix...

Daily Commodity Roundup as on Monday, November 19, 2018

Date : Monday, November 19, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1

14.38CRUDE $

56.68

-0.03 -0.06 0.00

IN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

L M

AR

KET U

PD

ATE GOLD $

1220.99SILVER $

USDJPY112.672

-0.1 0.06 -0.12EURUSD

1.1407GBPUSD

1.28357

LME

NICKEL

11240

-0.61 -0.46 -1.36

LME

COPPER

6205 LME

ZINC

2605

$ INDEX96.47

-0.03 -0.35 -0.65

LME ALUMINIUM

1947 LME

LEAD

1988

DJIA25289

0.56 0.62 0.83SENSEX

35457NIFTY

10682


NIKKEI21755

-0.08 1.06 0.35USDINR

71.99 S&P

INDEX

2730

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MCX Gold Dec 2018

Gold rallied as the dollar fell after U.S. Federal Reserve officials made cautions comments on the outlook for interest rate hikes.

Gold on MCX settled up 0.6% at 31007 as the dollar fell after U.S. Federal

Reserve officials made cautions comments on the outlook for interest rate

hikes. Two Fed officials cautioned that global economic growth was

slowing. Federal Reserve policymakers signalled further interest rate

increases ahead, even as they raised relatively muted concerns over a

potential global slowdown that has markets betting heavily that the rate-

hike cycle will soon peter out. U.S. manufacturing output increased for a

fifth straight month in October, shrugging off a sharp decline in motor

vehicle production and suggesting underlying strength in factory activity

despite signs of a slowdown in the sector. The Federal Reserve said

manufacturing production rose 0.3 percent last month. Data for

September was revised up to show output at factories increasing 0.3

percent instead of advancing 0.2 percent as previously reported. Brexit

fears took centre stage after UK Brexit Minister Dominic Raab resigned,

adding to uncertainty over whether Prime Minister Theresa May's

proposed Brexit deal will win parliamentary approval. Gold is trading at

premium in India for the first time in more than two months on robust

demand following a busy festival week, while a dip in global prices helped

bullion's appeal in some Asian hubs. Dealers in India, the world's second

biggest gold consumer after China, were charging a premium – the first

time since early September – of up to $3 an ounce over official domestic

prices in the week. Technically market is under fresh buying as market

has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.04% to settled at 9173 while

prices up 186 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 30829 and below

same could see a test of 30651 level, And resistance is now likely to be

seen at 31166, a move above could see prices testing 31325.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

30845

SUPPORT 3

31503 31325 31166 30829 30651 30492

31147 30810 31007 0.60 9173

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2


Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 30651-31325.

Fed's Clarida says he sees some evidence of global economic slowing that's relevant to US outlook

Brexiters expect no confidence vote threshold in PM May will be reached today with the vote to take place on Tuesday

Gold is trading at premium in India for the first time in more than two months on robust demand following a busy festival week.

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MCX Silver Dec 2018

Silver prices rose as investors moved to risk-averse assets amid Brexit turmoil and trade war concerns.

Silver on MCX settled up 0.82% at 36991 as investors sought safe haven

assets amid fears of a chaotic departure for Britain from the European

Union. Prime Minister Theresa May vowed to fight for her draft divorce

deal with the EU after the resignation of her Brexit secretary and other

ministers put her strategy and her job in peril. A “really strong” U.S.

economy is likely to continue growing, but softness in housing and high

levels of corporate debt have caught the Federal Reserve’s eye, Chairman

Jerome Powell said. U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in October as

purchases of motor vehicles and building materials surged, but data for

the prior two months was revised lower and the underlying trend

suggested that consumer spending was probably slowing down. The U.S.

economy is expanding at a 2.8 percent annualized rate in the fourth

quarter, based on domestic retail sales data in October, the Atlanta Fed’s

GDPNow forecast model showed. China’s written response to U.S.

demands for trade reforms is unlikely to trigger a breakthrough at talks

between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping later this month, a

senior Trump administration official told. Italy’s government is looking to

avoid European sanctions over its 2019 budget, Deputy Prime Minister

Luigi Di Maio said while stressing he did not want Italians to have to foot

the bill. Technically market is under short covering as market has

witnessed drop in open interest by -4.31% to settled at 26059 while

prices up 300 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 36729 and below




36797 37155

37679 37417 37204 36729 36467 36254

36680 36991 0.82 26059

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 36467-37417.

U.S. manufacturing production rises steadily in October

Prime Minister Theresa May vowed to fight for her draft divorce deal with the EU after the resignation of her Brexit secretary.

The U.S. economy is expanding at a 2.8 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, based on domestic retail sales data in October.

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MCX Crudeoil Dec 2018

Crude oil prices remained supported by expected supply cuts from OPEC but held back by record U.S. production.

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 0.12% at 4109 supported by expected supply

cuts from OPEC but held back by record U.S. production. Prices were

mainly supported by expectations the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries (OPEC) would start withholding supply soon, fearing a

renewed rout such as in 2014 when prices crashed under the weight of

oversupply. U.S. crude oil production has hit a fresh record of 11.7 million

barrels per day, that's resulted in swelling commercial crude inventories.

While OPEC considers withholding supply, U.S. crude oil production

reached another record last week, at 11.7 million barrels per day (bpd),

according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. U.S.

output has surged by almost a quarter since the start of the year. The

record output meant U.S. crude oil stocks posted the biggest weekly build

in nearly two years. Crude inventories soared 10.3 million barrels in the

week to Nov. 9 to 442.1 million barrels, the highest level since early

December 2017. This surge contributed to oil prices falling by around a

quarter since early October, taking many by surprise. The Saudis have

the power to rescue this market. They went from announcing a million

barrels in cuts initially to 1.4 million barrels over a matter days. There's

the stirrings of a reaction coming and no one wants to be caught on the

wrong side. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has

witnessed gain in open interest by 94.82% to settled at 13059 while

prices up 5 rupees, now Crudeoil is getting support at 4039 and below




4119 4205

4345 4275 4192 4039 3969 3886

4052 4109 0.12 13059

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3969-4275.

Prices were mainly supported by expectations the OPEC would start withholding supply soon, fearing a renewed rout such as in 2014 when prices crashed.

U.S. crude oil production has hit a fresh record of 11.7 million barrels per day, that's resulted in swelling commercial crude inventories.

Crude inventories soared 10.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 9 to 442.1 million barrels, the highest level since early December 2017.

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MCX Copper Nov 2018

Copper gained after a Trump administration official told the list of items that China said it was not willing to negotiate was unacceptable to the United States.

Copper on MCX settled up 1.43% at 442.9 after a Trump administration

official told the list of items that China said it was not willing to negotiate

was unacceptable to the United States. Prices received a further boost

when the U.S. dollar weakened after Federal Reserve officials appeared to

question the pace of interest rate rises and from strong U.S.

manufacturing data. Headline copper inventories in LME-registered

warehouses fell by 5,425 tonnes to 161,025 tonnes, nearing last month's

10-year low of 136,675 tonnes. Another signal of tight supply is the

premium of cash copper over the three-month contract, which has drifted

from a near four-year high of $47 last month to $18.50 but is still far

above recent norms. Chinese copper smelter Jiangxi Copper and miner

Antofagasta agreed 2019 copper treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs)

at $80.80 a tonne and 8.08 cents a pound in the first big deal for next

year, lower than a 2018 benchmark of $82.25 a tonne and 8.225 cents a

pound. Chile's state copper agency Cochilco lowered its average copper

price prediction for this year by $0.03 to $2.97 per pound in its second

negative projection in six months. Copper inventories in warehouses

monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.3 percent from last

Friday, the exchange said. Chile’s state copper agency Cochilco lowered

its average copper price prediction for this year by $0.03 to $2.97 per

pound on Thursday in its second negative projection in six months.

technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop

in open interest by -3.55% to settled at 11850, now Copper is getting

support at 436.6 and below same could see a test of 430.3 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 446.7, a move above could see

prices testing 450.5.


437.40

SUPPORT 3

456.8 450.5 446.7 436.6 430.3 426.5

444.20 434.15 442.90 1.43 11850


Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 430.3-450.5.

Chinese copper smelter Jiangxi Copper and miner Antofagasta agreed 2019 copper TC/RCs at $80.80 a tonne and 8.08 cents a pound.

Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.3 percent from last Friday, the exchange said.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 161025mt that is down by -5425mt.


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MCX Zinc Nov 2018

Zinc gained as LME stockpiles fell to a 10-1/2-year low, with signs that China may be moving to calm its trade dispute with the United States also boosting prices.

Zinc on MCX settled up 2.07% at 192.2 as LME stockpiles fell to a decade-

low, with signs that China may be moving to calm its trade dispute with

the United States also boosting prices. China has delivered a written

response to U.S. demands for wide-ranging trade reforms ahead of

expected talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese

President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Argentina later this month. LME

zinc stocks fell to a decade-low of 125,400 tonnes, data showed, while on-

warrant or available stocks hit their lowest since February. Zinc output in

October from China, the world's top producer of the metal, fell 7.6

percent from a year earlier to 501,000 tonnes, official data showed. The

global zinc market deficit narrowed to 54,700 tonnes in September from a

revised deficit of 81,800 tonnes in August, data from the International

Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. The August data was

revised after it gave an initial estimate for a deficit of 76,200 tonnes. In

the first eight months of the year the zinc market had a 305,000 tonne

deficit, compared with a deficit of 398,000 tonnes in the same period last

year. US retail sales rebounded sharply in October as purchases of motor

vehicles and building materials surged, likely driven by rebuilding efforts

in areas devastated by Hurricane Florence, said the Commerce

Department. October retail sales increased 0.8% from September as

households purchased more electronics and appliances. Technically

market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open

interest by -2.9% to settled at 2915 while prices up 3.9 rupees, now Zinc

is getting support at 188.8 and below same could see a test of 185.2

level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 194.4, a move above

could see prices testing 196.4.


188.9

SUPPORT 3

200.0 196.4 194.4 188.8 185.2 183.2

192.9 187.3 192.2 2.07 2915


Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 185.2-196.4.

LME zinc stocks fell to a decade-low of 125,400 tonnes, data showed, while on-warrant or available stocks hit their lowest since February.

Zinc output in October from China, fell 7.6 percent from a year earlier to 501,000 tonnes, official data showed.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 124450mt that is down by -950mt.


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MCX Nickel Nov 2018

Nickel prices gained on signs of some easing in the trade war between the United States and China.

Nickel on MCX settled up 0.72% at 816.7 on signs of some easing in the

trade war between the United States and China. There are reports that

China submitted a written response to U.S. demands for trade reforms.

However, the gains were muted after a senior U.S. official expressed

concerns about the trade items China was unwilling to negotiation on.

Nickel inventories in the Shanghai bonded areas shrank 1,000 mt, or

3.3% from a week earlier to stand at 29,500 mt as of Friday November

16, data showed. As the import window opened in the second half of the

week, importers moved cargoes from bonded warehouses to the domestic

spot market. Some 600 mt in metal content of high-grade nickel pig iron

(NPI) output will be affected in November as the second round of national

environmental review extended to Shandong province. Affected

production accounted for some 1.7% of domestic high-grade NPI output

in October. From late October, five inspection teams from the central

government started to settle in Shanxi, Liaoning, Jilin, Anhui, Shandong,

Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, Guizhou and Shaanxi provinces to supervise local

environmental conditions and review the implementation of rectification

plans that were made during previous environmental checks. The

eurozone trade surplus dropped sharply to €13.4 billion in September,

down from €16.6 billion in August. The weak reading was a result of a

weakness in exports, which fell 1% in September, on an annualised basis.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in

open interest by 1.44% to settled at 16328 while prices up 5.8 rupees,

now Nickel is getting support at 809.6 and below same could see a test of

802.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 823.4, a move

above could see prices testing 830.2.


811.3

SUPPORT 3

837.2 830.2 823.4 809.6 802.6 795.8

823.2 809.4 816.7 0.72 16328


Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 802.6-830.2.

Nickel inventories in the Shanghai bonded areas shrank 1,000 mt, or 3.3% from a week earlier to stand at 29,500 mt as of Friday November 16, data showed.

Some 600 mt in metal content of high-grade NPI output will be affected in November as the second round of national environmental review extended.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 215442mt that is down by -732mt.


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NCDEX Jeera Dec 2018

Jeera dropped tracking weakness in spot demand due to higher arrivals in the physical market following ample stock.

Jeera on NCDEX settled down -1.63% at 19645 tracking weakness in spot

demand due to higher arrivals in the physical market following ample

stock. Jeera arrivals in Unjha mandi, Gujarat, were 6,528 bags (20

Kg/bag) compared to 6,410 bags on the previous day. Jeera sowing has

started in Gujarat on a poor note and farmers sown the spice on 1,500

hectares only. Jeera exports dropped by 20.8% to 10,769 tons in August

compared to 13,597 tons in the same period a year ago, according to

Ministry of Commerce data. However, Jeera arrivals in Unjha mandi,

Gujarat, were 6,410 bags compared to 11,870 bags on the previous day.

Jeera sowing has commenced in Gujarat and has been planted on 36,600

hectares, showed Gujarat state agriculture data. However, as per reports

the carry over stock of cumin was lowered to 200,000 - 300,000 bags

from expected stock of 500,000 bags this season. Traders are expecting

higher sowing this year because of prevailing high prices but lack of rains

may impact yield. Moreover, participants are expecting lower jeera

sowing this year as moisture in the soil is not sufficient to grow the

produce because of deficient rainfall in major producing regions.

Meanwhile, carryover stock of jeera was lowered to 200,000-300,000

bags from expected stock of 500,000 bags this season. Sowing was

expected to be higher due to prevailing high prices but lower rains in

producing areas of both the states may impact the yield and overall

output. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed

gain in open interest by 0.06% to settled at 5367, now Jeera is getting

support at 19513 and below same could see a test of 19382 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 19873, a move above could see

prices testing 20102.


19860

SUPPORT 3

20230 20100 19870 19510 19380 19150

19970 19610 19645 -1.63 5367


Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6548-6548.

Jeera arrivals in Unjha mandi, Gujarat, were 6,528 bags compared to 6,410 bags on the previous day.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 275 tonnes to 3071 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 19953 rupee per 100 kg.


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NCDEX Turmeric Dec 2018

Turmeric dropped amid lower than expected exports and higher sowing turmeric areas of Tamilnadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra.

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down -1.3% at 6518 amid lower than

expected exports and higher sowing turmeric areas of Tamilnadu,

Karnataka and Maharashtra. As per reports, standing crop likely to

damage around 10 - 20% currently, if higher temperature will continue

next 15 - 20 days damage percentage may go up to 30-40%. Moreover,

turmeric sowing in all major producing states is higher than last year as

weather remained favourable. According to the Department of

Horticulture and Plantation Crops of Tamil Nadu, acreage of turmeric in

Erode may jump nearly 80% on year to 5,300 hectare in 2018-19 (Jul-

Jun) because of very good rainfall this year and availability of other water

sources. In Telangana, turmeric acreage rose to 47,790 hectare

compared to 44,956 hectare a year ago, state government data showed.

In Andhra Pradesh, farmers planted turmeric over area 18,000 hectares,

up from 14,000 hectares a year ago. The prices of the both varieties of

turmeric were increased. The sale and price has been increased due to

some local demands. The price of the finger turmeric increased by Rs.

450 a quintal at the Regulated Marketing Committee, Rs. 200 a quintal at

the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association Sales yard and Rs. 100 a

quintal at the Erode Cooperative Marketing Society. Technically market is

under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by

0.42% to settled at 13060 while prices down -86 rupees, now Turmeric is

getting support at 6457 and below same could see a test of 6397 level,

And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6621, a move above could see



6620

SUPPORT 3

6784 6724 6620 6456 6396 6292

6664 6500 6518 -1.30 13060


Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 6396-6724.

Turmeric sowing in all major producing states is higher than last year as weather remained favourable.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 10 tonnes to 3462 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7240.9 Rupees gained 5.9 Rupees.


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MCX Menthaoil Nov 2018

Menthaoil settled down as spot markets are witnessing low demand amid adequate supply which weighed on prices.

Menthaoil on MCX settled down -0.46% at 1796.4 as spot markets are

witnessing low demand amid adequate supply which weighed on prices.

Low demand outlook in mentha oil in domestic as well as global market

due to expectation of recovery in Indian Rupee against the U.S dollar.

Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is

moving upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal

stood at 400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki

supplies rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to

preliminary estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-

45,000 ton against last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be

chances of crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather

condition. Mandi Department, which assumes Mentha as an agricultural

product and receives the mandatory duty of one and a half percent, the

GST of the same commerce tax department, Mentha crop, is not

considered as agricultural product and 15 percent GST is charged. Due to

this double tax, the price of mentha product increases, whereas synthetic

mentha is much cheaper, so many companies making mentha products

have started using synthetic mentha. Technically market is under fresh

selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.59% to settled

at 1193 while prices down -8.3 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support

at 1787.3 and below same could see a test of 1778.2 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 1806.2, a move above could see



1795.00

SUPPORT 3

1825.1 1816.0 1806.2 1787.3 1778.2 1768.4

1806.90 1788.00 1796.40 -0.46 1193


Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1778.2-1816.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1938.60 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-12.30/-.

According to preliminary estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton against last year's production of 35,000 tons.

However, there could be chances of crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition.


TIME ZONE Forecast

CommodityLME STOCK Stock

COPPER -5425 161025

ALUMINIUM 8225 1066350

NICKEL -732 215442

LEAD -325 110575

ZINC -950 124450

4493 22390 19645 4649 6518 4139 507.2 3389

DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL

COMMODITIESNCDEX CHANA Dec

2018

NCDEX Cotton Nov

2018

NCDEX Jeera Dec

2018

NCDEX Guarseed10

Dec 2018

NCDEX Turmeric

Dec 2018

NCDEX Rmseed Dec

2018MCX CPO Nov 2018

NCDEX Soyabean

Dec 2018

NCDEX

Ref.Soya oil

Dec 2018

732.7CLOSE

P. POINT 4515 22400 19740 4673 6560 4153

4556 22500 19870 4730 6620 4175

RESISTANCE

4659 22720 20230 4868 6784 4234

511.6 3399 734

750

4618 22620 20100 4811 6724 4212 531.3 3456 745

538.9 3479

519.2 3422 739

4535 6396 4094 491.9 3342 723

4453 22280 19510 4592 6456 4116 499.5 3365

717

Cng in OI -1.83 -6.61 0.06 -3.95 0.42 -0.54 -9.03 -0.32 -6.15

SUPPORT

4350 22060 19150 4454 6292 4057 479.8 3308

728

4412 22180 19380

Long Liquidation

LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA

DATA Previous

2:30pm EUR Current Account 24.2B 23.9B

TREND Long Liquidation Long Liquidation Fresh Selling Long Liquidation Fresh Selling Long Liquidation Long Liquidation Long Liquidation

2:30pm EUR ECB Financial Stability Review 0 0

All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings 0 0

4:30pm EUR German Buba Monthly Report 0 0

8:30pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 67 68

9:15pm USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0


-5425

8225

-732-325

-950

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC

LME STOCK

NEWS YOU CAN USE

The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but remained on track to keep gradually tightening borrowing costs, as it pointed to a healthy economy that was

marred only by a dip in the growth of business investment. Business investment can be a key to rising productivity and future growth, and the fact that it had “moderated

from its rapid pace,” as the Fed said, was the only cautionary note in a policy statement that touted strong job gains and household spending, and a “strong rate” of

overall economic activity. “The labour market has continued to strengthen and ... economic activity has been rising at a strong rate,” the U.S. central bank said, leaving

intact its plans to continue raising rates at a gradual pace. The Fed has hiked rates three times this year and is widely expected to do so again in December. The

statement overall reflected little change in the Fed’s outlook for the economy since its last policy meeting in September. Inflation remained near its 2 percent target,

unemployment fell, and risks to the economic outlook were still felt to be “roughly balanced.” Policymakers, however, took particular note of the moderation in business

investment, an important component of GDP that can spin off jobs as companies build new facilities, and raise productivity as they upgrade equipment and processes.

Boosting investment was one of the main objectives behind the Trump administration’s move to reduce the corporate tax rate as part of its restructuring of the tax code

at the end of 2017.

Economic growth in the euro area is set to ease gradually towards potential as the region does not display real signs of overheating that could put an untimely end to

growth, the European Commission said in its Autumn forecast, published. In the near term, economic growth is expected to continue at about the same pace as in the

first half of the year, resulting in euro area growth of 2.1 percent in 2018, which was unchanged from the previous projection. Eurozone growth hit a decade-high of 2.4

percent in 2017. Real GDP was forecast to grow 1.9 percent in 2019, which was slower than the 2 percent projected earlier. Growth was seen at 1.7 percent in 2020. "The

European economy is holding up well, with growth easing gradually," EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said. "We project this pattern will continue over

the next two years, as unemployment continues to fall to levels not seen since before the crisis." According to the EU, trade tensions in emerging markets are

materializing. In Europe, uncertainty about the outlook for public finances in Italy has led to higher interest spreads, and the interaction of sovereign debt with the

banking sector is still of concern.

Deficient rains in cotton growing regions will hamper the yield for the kharif 2018-19 season, resulting in lower overall output of fibre crop. Farmers, therefore, have

pinned their hopes on increased cotton prices to make most from this kharif season. Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka, which produce about half of the country's

cotton, faced water shortage due to erratic monsoon during the sowing period. The Bt seeds, used in most of the cotton fields, require adequate water. A deficient rainfall

has adversely affected the yield of Bt cotton. Farmers in Gujarat - the largest grower of the fibre crop - fear picking cycles to come down from normal 4-5 to merely one

or two this year. But they seem to be planning to make most fromthese one or two picking cycles by selling their crop when it is at its peak. The Centre, in its first

advance estimate in September 2018, projected lower cotton crop at 325 lakh bales (each of 170 kg), about sevenper cent lesser than 349 lakh bales estimated in fourth

advance estimate for 2017-18. Also, the carried over stock from the 2017-18 season was estimated to be one of the lowest in at least five years, which is further fuelling

prices. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has projected total cotton supply for 2018-19 upto September 30, 2019 at 390.25 lakh bales, including opening stock of 23

lakh bales and imports of 24 lakh bales, higher by nine lakh bales compared 15 lakh bales estimated for 2017-18. The trade, however, believes that the crop will be lower

than last year at major growing states (West and South), but will get compensated by a possible growth in the Northern region.



The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is

made as to its accuracy completeness or correctness.

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All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as on the date of the report and these, plus any other information contained in the report, are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without

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a link, is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. The information contained in the Report is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient to any third party.

SCSPL generally prohibits its analyst(s), persons reporting to analyst(s), and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the commodities or commodity derivatives that the analyst(s) cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may

provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations

expressed herein. The views expressed in this research report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in

this report. The compensation of the analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by SCSPL however, compensation may relate to the revenues of the Systematix Group as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading are a part. Research analyst(s) and

sales persons of SCSPL may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies).

Foreign currency denominated commodities, wherever mentioned are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively

assume currency risk.

SCSPL, its directors, analyst(s) or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report including but not restricted to changes in the currency rates, reduction in

the income, etc.

SCSPL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities/commodities derivatives thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such

commodities/commodity derivatives and earn brokerage or other compensation (financial interest) or act as a market maker in the financial instruments discussed herein or have other potential material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and

opinions. The views expressed are those of the analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to the views expressed therein.

SCSPL, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without

limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SCSPL, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties. The

Report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the Report refers to website material of the Company, the Company has not reviewed the linked site. Accessing such website or following such link through the report or the website of

the Company shall be at your own risk and the Company shall have no liability arising out of, or in connection with, any such referenced website

SCSPL shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any technical glitch to present the data. In no event shall the SCSPL be liable for any damages, including without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or

consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by SCSPL through this presentation.

Neither SCSPL, nor any of its other group companies or associates, shall be responsible for any decisions taken on the basis of this report. Investors are advised to consult their Investment and Tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report.

Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited.:

Registered and Corporate address: The Capital, A-wing, No. 603 – 606, 6th Floor, Plot No. C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051

CIN - U01119MH1994PTC266348 | MCX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 | NCDEX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 Member Code: MCX: 29790 | NCDEX: 534

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