Commodity Technical Outlook For Gold, Silver, Copper & Crude: 4th Oct

Global Research Limited

04th,October

Report Report COMEX COMEX


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DATE TIME: IST DATA PRV EXP

04.10.13

Global Economic Data

04th October,2013

IMPACT

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks6:45 P.M

Due to deliver introductory remarks at the Workshop on "Fire Sales" as a Driver of Systemic

Risk in Tri-Party Repo and Other Secured Funding Markets, in New York;

Description

Speaker

Usual Effect

FF Notes

Federal Reserve Bank of New York (latest release)

FOMC voting member Jan 2009 - Jan 2020;

Source

Why TradersCare

Acro Expand

Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public

engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley;

More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;

04.10.13 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 7:00 P.M MEDIUM

MEDIUM



04th October,2013

FOMC Member Stein Speaks

Due to deliver a speech titled "The Problem of Fire Sales" at the Workshop on "Fire Sales"

as a Driver of Systemic Risk in Tri-Party Repo and Other Secured Funding Markets, in New York;

Description

Speaker

Usual Effect

FF Notes

Federal Reserve (latest release)

FOMC voting member May 2012 - Jan 2018;

Source

Why TradersCare

Acro Expand

Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public

engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

Federal Reserve Governor Jeremy Stein;

More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;



04th October,2013

Ÿ

ŸGold closed nearly unchanged today at 1317. Key support is at the 1273 low from August 7. Resistance is at the recent high of

1354. While recent price action has not been bullish, we note that a positive reversal formed between August 7 and September

17, which generates a target of 1461. A positive reversal, in the methodology created by technician Constance Brown, is

where the RSI makes a new pivot low while price makes a higher pivot low. We are watching the 1273 support area to

determine if gold is trying to form a base, or if it will make a new leg lower.

Ÿ

Gold eased overnight to open today's session at 1302.50/1303.50. Price dipped slightly to a low of 1301.75/1302.75, before

advancing to peak at 1322.00/1323.00 on higher than expected US continuing claims. Equities declined as the standoff in US

government continued, giving a small boost to precious metals. Gold closed today at 1317.00/1318.00.

Gold gains after softer U.S. services sector data raised expectations that the Federal Reserve would delay any reduction in

economic stimulus.

ŸA partial shutdown of U.S. federal government operations was expected to delay highly-anticipated non-farm payrolls report

for September.

ŸSPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.20 percent, or 1.8 tonnes, to

899.99 tonnes

Ÿ Silver traded mostly flat on the day. The metal opened at 21.46/21.51, touched a low of 21.41/21.46, before moving

to a high of 21.80/21.85 by midday as USD weakened. Price traded around this level for the remainder of the

session, closing at 21.72/21.77.

Ÿ Silver closed slightly lower today at 21.72. Interim support is at the October low of 20.62. There is also a daily uptrend

in place at 20.53. While technicals have certainly not been bullish, it will be constructive if silver can hold this uptrend

line. There is resistance in the low-22 area which has been a congestion area since mid-September, and which was

previously a big support level from April to June.

ŸThe gold-silver ratio is trading higher today at 60.82; however is still vulnerable to further losses. The downside target

is 58.70, the last major low (from September 19). Resistance is at the recent high at 62.37.

ŸSilver got support by a weaker U.S. dollar, as the shutdown continued into a second day with no end in sight.

ŸInvestors continued to weigh the implications of a protracted U.S. government shutdown.

ŸMarkets were also considering how the political deadlock in Washington will impact negotiations to raise the U.S. debt

ceiling.

Gold

Silver


04th October,2013


Ÿ On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery fell 0.15% to USD103.15 per barrel

in Asian trading Friday. The November contract settled lower by 0.76% at USD103.31 per barrel on Thursday.

Ÿ The U.S. government shutdown has carried on for the third day in a row, as House Republicans are still unable to strike

a deal on spending cuts with the Senate Democrats. A shooting near Capitol Hill, which was later on considered an

isolated incident, also kept risk-taking in check.

ŸIn U.S. economic news out Thursday, the ISM non-manfacturing PMI showed a sharper than expected decline from 58.6 to

54.4, lower than the consensus at 57.4.

Ÿ Oil futures traded lower during Friday's Asian session amid a batch of disappointing economic data and an ongoing

government shutdown that threatens to imperil the world's largest economy.

ŸCrude rose after energy company TransCanada said that it would complete work on the southern leg of its Keystone Pipeline

later this month.

ŸCrude inventories in the United States rose sharply last week as refinery utilisation fell, while the drawdown at Cushing slowed.

ŸA tropical storm headed for the U.S. Gulf Coast had forced producers to shut in some oil and gas production.

ŸOn the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.310 a pound

during European morning trade, down 0.15%.

ŸCopper prices traded in a range between USD3.307 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.325 a pound. The December

contract settled 1.3% higher at USD3.316 a pound on Wednesday.

ŸCopper prices were likely to find support at USD3.249 a pound, Wednesday's low and resistance at USD3.339 a pound, the high from

September 30.

ŸCopper futures swung between small gains and losses on Thursday, as investors weighed upbeat data on non-manufacturing activity

in China while continuing to monitor political wrangling in Washington.

ŸCopper dropped as weaker U.S. economic data and the continued government shutdown weighed on the outlook for industrial metal

demand.

Ÿ ISM said its services index fell to 54.4 last month after nearing an eight-year high in August.

ŸFailure to increase the debt limit could push the world's biggest economy into default and shake markets.

Crude

Copper

INDEX ROLLOVER


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Technical levels

SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

GOLD 1306 1296 1324 1340

SILVER 21.53 21.27 21.95 22.11

COPPER 3.2450 3.2215 3.3085 3.3485

CRUDE 102.66 102.01 104.17 105.03

Commodity Technical Outlook For Gold, Silver, Copper & Crude: 4th Oct

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Transcript of Commodity Technical Outlook For Gold, Silver, Copper & Crude: 4th Oct