Daily Commodity Roundup as on - Systematix...

Date : Tuesday, August 07, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1

Daily Commodity Roundup as on Tuesday, August 07, 2018


NIKKEI22562

0.27 0.46 0.24USDINR

69.04 S&P

INDEX

2840

DJIA25463

0.36 0.23 0.54SENSEX

37692NIFTY

11387

$ INDEX95.34

-0.46 0.50 -0.04

LME ALUMINIUM

2044 LME

LEAD

2126

13660

0.42 0.31 -0.18

LME

COPPER

6131 LME

ZINC

2573

IN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

L M

AR

KET U

PD

ATE GOLD $

1209.61SILVER $

USDJPY111.33

0.04 -0.01 -0.04EURUSD

1.1556GBPUSD

1.294

LME

NICKEL

15.32CRUDE $

68.87

0.19 0.27 0.55

#

#

#

#

RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2


Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 29558-29732.

Chinese state media criticised U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies in an unusually personal attack, and sought to reassure investors anxious about China’s economy.

Hedge funds added a hefty 13,931 contracts to their net short position, bringing it to 41,087 contracts, the biggest since records became publicly available in 2006.

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), said its holdings fell 0.78 percent to 788.71 tonnes on Monday from 794.90 tonnes on Friday.

Gold fell on firmer dollar and expectations for further interest rate hikes by the U.S. Fed U.S. ‘snapback’ sanctions targeting the purchase of precious metals.

Gold on MCX settled down -0.14% at 29629 on firmer dollar and

expectations for further interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve

offset U.S. ‘snapback’ sanctions targeting the purchase of precious

metals. Chinese state media criticised U.S. President Donald Trump’s

trade policies in an unusually personal attack, and sought to reassure

investors anxious about China’s economy as growth concerns battered its

financial markets. China’s exports are expected to have maintained solid

growth in July despite new tariffs on billions of dollars of shipments to the

United States, though the outlook has darkened as both sides raised the

stakes in a trade conflict that has rattled financial markets. The Trump

administration will aggressively enforce economic sanctions that it is re-

imposing on Iran this week and expects the measures to have a

significant impact on the Iranian economy, senior U.S. administration

officials said. Recent dollar strength has been buoyed by expectations

that the Federal Reserve will push forward with rate hikes, with markets

pricing in moves in both September and December. SPDR Gold Trust

(GLD), the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its

holdings fell 0.78 percent to 788.71 tonnes on Monday from 794.90

tonnes on Friday. Hedge funds and money managers added 13,931

contracts to their net short position in the week to July 31, bringing it to

41,087 contracts, the biggest since records became publicly available in

2006. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has

witnessed drop in open interest by -2.08% to settled at 7522 while prices

down -42 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 29593 and below same

could see a test of 29558 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at

29680, a move above could see prices testing 29732.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

29690

SUPPORT 3

29767 29732 29680 29593 29558 29506

29697 29610 29629 -0.14 7522

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

MCX Gold Oct 2018

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SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 37698-38218.

China proposed retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods, further escalating a bitter trade conflict.

China’s exports are expected to have maintained solid growth in July despite new tariffs on billions of dollars of shipments to the United States.

Investors have largely been buying the dollar as a safe haven asset rather than gold as the U.S.-China trade dispute escalates.

Silver prices dropped amid rising dollar and lingering U.S. trade-war concerns weighed on sentiment.

Silver on MCX settled down -0.46% at 37896 amid rising dollar and

lingering U.S. trade-war concerns weighed on sentiment. The greenback

was boosted by disappointing German industrial orders in June and fears

of a no-deal Brexit. Washington has also reimposed economic sanctions

on Iran. Amid the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China,

investors are showing a preference for the greenback over gold as a safe-

haven asset. Chinese state media on Monday attacked U.S. President

Donald Trump's trade policies, stating that he was starring in his own

"street fighter-style deceitful drama of extortion and

intimidation".Chinese authorities announced last Friday that it would

impose tariffs, ranging from 5% to 35%, on $60 billion in U.S. goods that

include many agriculture-related goods if the U.S. proceeded with placing

more tariffs on Chinese imports.    The warnings came after Trump urged

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to consider raising the

proposed tariffs on Chinese goods to 25% from the initial 10% earlier this

month.   Eurozone confidence among investors improved for the second

straight month in August with the index climbing to 14.7 from 12.1 in

July, signalling relief in EU's trade disputes with the US, survey data

published by Sentix showed. Investors have largely been buying the

dollar as a safe haven asset as the U.S.-China trade dispute escalates.

Key things to watch today include eurozone industrial output and trade

balance in June, China’s foreign exchange reserves for July, US job

openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) in June. Technically market

is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by

6.26% to settled at 26686, now Silver is getting support at 37797 and

below same could see a test of 37698 level, And resistance is now likely

to be seen at 38057, a move above could see prices testing 38218.


38099 38119

38317 38218 38057 37797 37698 37537

37859 37896 -0.46 26686

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1

MCX Silver Sep 2018

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SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4665-4863.

Saudi Arabia, produced 200,000 barrels less per day in July – only 10.29 million a day last month, according to reports.

OPEC decided to boost output from July and reported last Wednesday that its output in July rose by 300,000 barrels per day.

Baker Hughes’ weekly data showed that the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. declined by 4 to 1,048.

Crude prices edged up amid reports that Saudi Arabia pumped fewer crude barrels in July, while the U.S. saw a drop in active drilling rigs.

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 1.73% at 4767 amid reports that Saudi Arabia

pumped fewer crude barrels in July, while the U.S. saw a drop in active

drilling rigs. Oil prices made a bright start to the session as bulls cheered

a drop in Saudi output and signs of tightening U.S. output. Oilfield

services firm Baker Hughes reported that the number of U.S. oil drilling

rigs in operation fell by 2 to 861. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, pumped

around 10.29 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in July, Reuters

reported Friday, citing two OPEC sources, down about 200,000 bpd from a

month earlier. The fall is Saudi output arrived despite OPEC and non-

OPEC members agreeing in June to ease oil production limits, which had

been imposed as part of the production-cut agreement struck in

November 2016. Expectations for steep losses of Iranian crude from the

market had waned somewhat in recent weeks after the Trump offered to

meet with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani, while U.S. Treasury

Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the United States would consider waivers

for certain countries importing Iranian crude. The main oil market price

drivers of recent months have been output levels by top producers

Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, renewed Iran sanctions, the

U.S. vs China trade dispute, and unplanned supply disruptions. Much of

the northern hemisphere has been gripped by extreme heat this summer,

pushing up demand for industrial and residential cooling. Technically

market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open

interest by 19.05% to settled at 10197 while prices up 81 rupees, now

Crudeoil is getting support at 4716 and below same could see a test of

4665 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4815, a move

above could see prices testing 4863.


4717 4812

4914 4863 4815 4716 4665 4617

4713 4767 1.73 10197

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1

MCX Crudeoil Aug 2018

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Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 410.4-421.

China’s finance ministry unveiled tariffs on 5,207 goods imported from the United States, with the extra levies ranging from 5 to 25 percent.

China imported 432,944 tonnes of copper concentrate from the United States, its eight-biggest supplier, according to Chinese customs data.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 249900mt that is down by -725mt.


Copper edged lower as the dollar index ticked higher, even as China’s move to place retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods heightened trade tensions.

Copper on MCX settled down -0.85% at 415.50 slid in yesterday’s session

due to worries about the damage to global economic growth from the

trade dispute between the United States and its trading partners and a

stronger dollar. China’s finance ministry on Friday unveiled tariffs on

5,207 goods imported from the United States, with the extra levies

ranging from 5 percent to 25 percent. Items earmarked for the 25

percent tariff include ore and concentrates of copper, zinc and nickel. The

impact on copper would not be material because China’s imports of

copper concentrate from the United States made up only 3 percent of its

total. China in 2017 imported 432,944 tonnes of copper concentrate from

the United States, its eight-biggest supplier, according to Chinese

customs data. Base metals prices look likely to remain vulnerable to the

stronger dollar this week, as expectations for additional U.S. interest rate

hikes this year underpin demand for the greenback. There aren’t many

major events coming up on the economic calendar, but Friday will see an

update on consumer prices for July, which will be the week’s most closely

watched U.S. data release. While today key things to watch today include

eurozone industrial output and trade balance in June, China’s foreign

exchange reserves for July, US job openings and labor turnover survey

(JOLTS) in June and weekly crude oil inventory data from the American

Petroleum Institute (API). Technically market is under fresh selling as

market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.25% to settled at 30272

while prices down -3.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 412.9

and below same could see a test of 410.4 level, And resistance is now

likely to be seen at 418.2, a move above could see prices testing 421.


418.50

SUPPORT 3

423.5 421.0 418.2 412.9 410.4 407.6

418.50 413.20 415.50 -0.85 30272

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

MCX Copper Aug 2018

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Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 175.6-181.8.

China’s central bank said it would require banks to keep reserves equivalent to 20 percent of their clients’ foreign exchange forwards positions.

Social inventories of zinc in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin grew 11,600 mt from last Friday to 115,000 mt.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 233525mt that is down by -750mt.


MCX Zinc Aug 2018

Zinc dropped as prices face strong pressure from the US-China trade disputes and a slowdown in Chinese economic growth.

Zinc on MCX settled down -1.13% at 178.60 tracking weakness from LME

zinc which fared worst in the base metals complex, falling 2.2 percent to

$2,570.50 a tonne, while Shanghai lead ended down 1.4 percent as an

escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing raised concerns

over demand in top industrial metals consumer China. On Friday China

unveiled tariffs on 5,207 items imported from the United States, with the

extra levies ranging from 5 percent to 25 percent, which analysts say

could eventually undermine growth. However, even though items

earmarked for the 25 percent tariff include copper ore and concentrates,

the quantities involved are not significant for China. Last night the US

dollar index strengthened further and closed at 95.35 overnight as

investors bet that trade wars and a robust US economy would continue to

drive the currency higher. The greenback was also boosted on Monday by

disappointing German industrial orders in June and fears of a no-deal

Brexit. Washington has also reimposed economic sanctions on Iran. Base

metals closed mixed overnight. Base metals prices look likely to remain

vulnerable to the stronger dollar this week, as expectations for additional

U.S. interest rate hikes this year underpin demand for the greenback.

While today key things to watch today include eurozone industrial output

and trade balance in June, China’s foreign exchange reserves for July, US

job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) in June and weekly crude

oil inventory data from the API. Technically market is under fresh selling

as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.35% to settled at

4604, now Zinc is getting support at 177.2 and below same could see a

test of 175.6 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 180.3, a

move above could see prices testing 181.8.


180.3

SUPPORT 3

183.4 181.8 180.3 177.2 175.6 174.1

180.3 177.1 178.6 -1.13 4604

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 902.8-963.

Nickel ore inventory across Chinese ports increased by 490,000 wmt from a week ago to 10.79 million wmt.

Nickel stocks in Shanghai bonded warehouses grew 6% from a week ago to 61,000 mt.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 251838mt that is down by -1440mt.


MCX Nickel Aug 2018

Nickel gained tracking rise in LME prices as shrinking LME and SHFE inventory gave some support to nickel prices.

Nickel on MCX settled up 1.63% at 941.30 tracking rise in LME prices as

shrinking LME and SHFE inventory gave some support to nickel prices.

Nickel ore inventory across Chinese ports increased by 490,000 wmt from

a week ago to 10.79 million wmt. Nickel stocks in Shanghai bonded

warehouses grew 6% from a week ago to 61,000 mt. China's offshore

yuan rebounded after the country’s central bank on Friday imposed a

reserve requirement of 20% on trading of foreign exchange forward

contracts. Beijing also announced retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of

US goods, and warned of further measures. China’s Caixin services

purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in July fell to the lowest level since

March, at 52.8, from June’s 53.9. This was mainly due to the smallest

growth in new business since December 2015. Eurozone retail sales rose

by 0.3% in June, less than the expected 0.4%, data from the European

statistics office Eurostat showed on Friday. On a yearly basis, retail sales

in the 19 countries sharing the currency increased by 1.2%, below the

expected 1.4%.US trade deficit widened in June amid the country's

ongoing tariff battle with its global trading partners. The total deficit in

goods and services rose to $46.3 billion for the month, from $43.2 billion

in May, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Imports increased by

$1.6 billion, to $260.2 billion, while exports declined by $1.5 billion, to

$213.8 billion. Technically market is under short covering as market has

witnessed drop in open interest by -1.94% to settled at 7877 while prices

up 15.1 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 922 and below same

could see a test of 902.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at

952.1, a move above could see prices testing 963.


921.3

SUPPORT 3

982.2 963.0 952.1 922.0 902.8 891.9

943.8 913.7 941.3 1.63 7877

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6715-6715.

Jeera output is expected to be bumper and supplies are likely to increase in the coming days.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 161 tonnes to 2413 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 19735 rupee per 100 kg.


NCDEX Jeera Sep 2018

Jeera prices dropped on profit booking after prices gained supported by improved physical and export demand.

Jeera on NCDEX settled down -0.55% at 20625 tracking good arrivals and

production. However, lower side was capped counting on good physical

and exports demands from China and Bangladesh. At Rajkot market in

Rajkot(Guj.) estimated market supply was at 985 quintal, up by 205

quintal from previous day’s arrivals. At Gondal(Guj.) market in

Rajkot(Guj.), estimated market supply was at 2500 quintals, up by 300

quintals from previous day’s arrivals. At Nagaur(Raj.) market in Nagaur,

sources reported arrivals at 400 quintals, lower by 100 quintals as against

previous day. According to export data released by Commerce ministry,

exports in May surged 96% on year to 27,790 tonnes. Moreover, country

exports about 87,115 tonnes of Jeera during Mar-May 2018. Jeera arrivals

during July are pegged at 8,700 tonnes compared to 3,800 tonnes last

year for same period. India is expected to export a record 175,000 tn of

jeera in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar), primarily because supply from its competitors

has taken a hit making it the sole supplier of the largely sought after

spice, trade officials said. Supply of jeera from Syria and Turkey--India's

main rivals in the global jeera export market--has been hit both in terms

of quantity and quality due to adverse weather, according to exporters.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in

open interest by 3.84% to settled at 5682 while prices down -115 rupees,

now Jeera is getting support at 20490 and below same could see a test of

20355 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 20820, a move

above could see prices testing 21015.


20590

SUPPORT 3

21180 20930 20540 19900 19650 19260

20680 20040 20145 -2.33 6102

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 7132-7372.

However, upside seen limited on expectation reports of improved sowing turmeric growing areas of Tamilnadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 79 tonnes to 5235 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7420 Rupees gained 30 Rupees.


NCDEX Turmeric Sep 2018

Turmeric prices gained on short covering amid increase in physical demand during sowing season.

Turmeric on NCDEX settled up by 0.64% at 7278 on short covering amid

increase in physical demand during sowing season. However, upside seen

limited on expectation reports of improved sowing turmeric growing areas

of Tamilnadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. In Andhra Pradesh, Turmeric

sowing reported 12,320 hectares as compared to 7,998 hectares in the

corresponding period last year, 68% sowing completed from season

normal. In Telangana, Turmeric sowing as on 01 August 2018 reported

46,692 hectares as compared to 41,715 hectares in the corresponding

period last year. 85% sowing completed from season normal. As per

estimates, in normal monsoon condition Turmeric all India area may go

up by 12 - 14% as compared to last year due to higher prices. Arrivals of

turmeric have been lower during first 30 days in July at 18,575 t (Vs

17,116 t) compared last year, as per data. The export of turmeric was

down by 5% at 10,651 tonnes in May 2018 compared to last years’

exports. For the first 5 months, the exports are lower by 13.4%

compared to last year. Spot turmeric prices increased at the markets in

Erode as the farmers brought in quality produce. Arrivals too were up at

3,600 bags and 70 per cent of them were traded. Regarding the price,

finger variety was up Rs. 100 a quintal and root variety gained Rs. 120.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7420

Rupees gained 30 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as

market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.34% to settled at 13610

while prices up 46 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7204 and

below same could see a test of 7132 level, And resistance is now likely to

be seen at 7324, a move above could see prices testing 7372.


7198

SUPPORT 3

7444 7372 7324 7204 7132 7084

7300 7180 7278 0.64 13610

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

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Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1497.5-1575.3.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1794.60 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-4.70/-.

Further, ample stock positions on higher supplies from the major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too weighed on mentha oil prices.

Anticipation of bumper crop harvest and nearing of harvesting season adding negativity to the market.


MCX Menthaoil Aug 2018

Mentha oil dropped amid subdued demand from consuming industries at the spot market.

Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -1% at 1530.4 amid subdued demand

from consuming industries at the spot market. Further, ample stock

positions on higher supplies from the major producing belts of Chandausi

in Uttar Pradesh too weighed on mentha oil prices. Anticipation of bumper

crop harvest and nearing of harvesting season adding negativity to the

market. As per preliminary estimates, acreage under mentha crop will

rise this year as the farmers are encouraged by higher price in recent

past. As per trade sources, all the major markets are likely to witness

higher inflow of the produce. There could be chances of crop damage to

certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition. Besides, farmers

are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices are not

remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in

production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the

demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around

80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production

stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between

30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in

India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. As per the

data, the global demand of essential oil will increase in the coming years.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1794.60 per 1kg. Spot prices was

down by Rs.-4.70/-.Technically market is under fresh selling as market

has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.85% to settled at 1432 while

prices down -15.5 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1513.9 and

below same could see a test of 1497.5 level, And resistance is now likely

to be seen at 1552.8, a move above could see prices testing 1575.3.


1558.90

SUPPORT 3

1591.7 1575.3 1552.8 1513.9 1497.5 1475.0

1558.90 1520.00 1530.40 -1.00 1432

RESIST 3 RESIST 2

TIME ZONE Forecast

CommodityLME STOCK Stock

COPPER -725 249900

ALUMINIUM -7725 1177550

NICKEL -1440 251838

LEAD 450 125775

ZINC -750 233525

0 0 0 0 0


0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

7:30pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 6.74M 6.64M

Tentative USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 57.2 56.4

11:30am EUR German Trade Balance 21.4B 20.3B

12:15pm EUR French Trade Balance -5.6B -6.0B

Long Liquidation

LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA

DATA Previous

11:30am EUR German Industrial Production m/m -0.005 0.026

TREND Long Liquidation Short Covering Fresh Selling Long Liquidation Fresh Buying Fresh Selling Fresh Buying Long Liquidation

721

Cng in OI -0.65 -3.63 7.39 -5.79 3.34 4.77 0.33 -5.11 -4.76

SUPPORT

3919 23520 19260 4060 7084 4060 584.8 3305

727

4019 23610 19650 4165 7132 4091 586.7 3333 724

4075 23770 19900 4218 7204 4111 589.4 3354

591.3 3382 730

739

4331 24110 20930 4481 7372 4193 595.9 3431 736

598.6 3452

594.0 3403 733

P. POINT 4175 23860 20290 4323 7252 4142

4231 24020 20540 4376 7324 4162

RESISTANCE

4387 24270 21180 4534 7444 4213

4130 23930 20145 4270 7278 4131 592.1 3376

DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL

COMMODITIESNCDEX CHANA Sep

2018

NCDEX Cotton Oct

2018

NCDEX Jeera Oct

2018

NCDEX Guarseed10

Oct 2018

NCDEX Turmeric

Sep 2018

NCDEX Rmseed Sep

2018MCX CPO Aug 2018

NCDEX Soyabean

Oct 2018

NCDEX

Ref.Soya oil

Sep 2018

729.65CLOSE

-725

-7725

-1440

450

-750

-9000

-8000

-7000

-6000

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC

LME STOCK

NEWS YOU CAN USE

Manufacturing activity across Asia slowed in July, deepening concerns about the region’s economic outlook as an intensifying trade conflict between the United States and

China sent shudders through their trading partners. A survey of purchasing managers released on Wednesday showed China’s manufacturing sector grew at its slowest

pace in eight months in July, with new export orders suffering the worst slump since mid-2016. Factory activity in the euro zone, where trade tensions were showing signs

of easing, was expected to keep up the pace. In the United States it was seen cooling slightly, but still strong enough for the Federal Reserve to stay on track for two rate

hikes this year even if it was likely to hold rates steady this week. Last month, China and the United States slapped tit-for-tat tariffs on $34 billion of each other’s goods

and another round of tariffs on $16 billion is expected in August. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, according to a source familiar with its plans, is poised to

propose 25 percent tariffs on a further $200 billion of imports, up from an initial proposal of 10 percent, and a threat of tariffs on the entire $500 billion-or-so goods

imported from China still stands. Beijing has pledged equal retaliation, although it only imports about $130 billion of U.S. goods.

Japanese manufacturing activity slowed less than initially reported in July, a revised survey showed, but there are lingering concerns about the economy due to the

reduced pace at which new orders increased. The final Markit/Nikkei survey for Japan showed the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was a seasonally

adjusted 52.3. That was an upward revision from the flash reading of 51.6, which was the lowest in more than one and a half years. In June, the index was 53.0. The

index remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction for the 23rd consecutive month. The final index for new orders was 50.9, the lowest

since October 2016. The July flash reading was 50.1 and the final one for June was 52.7. The index for new export orders was 50.0, compared with the preliminary 49.7

and above a final 48.9 in June. Washington is engaged in a heated dispute with China over Beijing’s trade surplus with the United States, and there are worries President

Donald Trump’s administration could ask Japan to take concrete steps to lower its trade surplus as well. Japan’s economy is expected to rebound in the second quarter

from a contraction in the first quarter that ended the longest growth streak since the 1980s bubble economy.

Malaysian palm oil prices are set to average 2,410 ringgit ($591) a tonne in 2018, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) forecast on Monday, down about 14 percent

from last year's average prices. The MPOC also forecast palm oil output in Malaysia, the world's second largest producer, at 20.3 million tonnes in 2018, above last year's

19.92 million tonnes due to better yields. "For the second half of 2018, palm oil production is expected to be higher, contributed by the peak months in October and

November," the MPOC said in a presentation at an online conference. Exports this year were forecast to reach 17.65 million tonnes, up from 16.56 million tonnes in 2017,

leading to year-end stocks 2.8 million tonnes, the highest December levels since at least 2000. Its production forecast is above that of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, an

industry regulator and research body, which expects a slight 20,000 tonne decline to 19.9 million tonnes, due to lower fresh fruit bunch yield brought about by less

rainfall. The MPOB said in its presentation that it expects 2018 exports to increase to 17.4 million tonnes, up from 16.56 million tonnes last year, supported by lower

prices in the second half of the year.



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made as to its accuracy completeness or correctness.

This document is for information purposes only. This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and one should exercise due caution while acting on it. Descriptions of any commodities mentioned herein are not

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a link, is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. The information contained in the Report is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient to any third party.

SCSPL generally prohibits its analyst(s), persons reporting to analyst(s), and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the commodities or commodity derivatives that the analyst(s) cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may

provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations

expressed herein. The views expressed in this research report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in

this report. The compensation of the analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by SCSPL however, compensation may relate to the revenues of the Systematix Group as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading are a part. Research analyst(s) and

sales persons of SCSPL may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies).

Foreign currency denominated commodities, wherever mentioned are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively

assume currency risk.

SCSPL, its directors, analyst(s) or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report including but not restricted to changes in the currency rates, reduction in

the income, etc.

SCSPL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities/commodities derivatives thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such

commodities/commodity derivatives and earn brokerage or other compensation (financial interest) or act as a market maker in the financial instruments discussed herein or have other potential material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and

opinions. The views expressed are those of the analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to the views expressed therein.

SCSPL, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without

limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SCSPL, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties. The

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SCSPL shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any technical glitch to present the data. In no event shall the SCSPL be liable for any damages, including without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or

consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by SCSPL through this presentation.

Neither SCSPL, nor any of its other group companies or associates, shall be responsible for any decisions taken on the basis of this report. Investors are advised to consult their Investment and Tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report.

Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited.:

Registered and Corporate address: The Capital, A-wing, No. 603 – 606, 6th Floor, Plot No. C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051

CIN - U01119MH1994PTC266348 | MCX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 | NCDEX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 Member Code: MCX: 29790 | NCDEX: 534

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