Daily Commodity Roundup as onreport.systematixshares.com/Commodity/SYSTEMATIXDAILYCOMM… · 1.1680...

Daily Commodity Roundup as on Wednesday, August 01, 2018

Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1

15.48CRUDE $

68.70

-0.16 -0.09 -2.04

IN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

L M

AR

KET U

PD

ATE GOLD $

1221.76SILVER $

USDJPY111.939

-0.05 -0.07 0.1EURUSD

1.1680GBPUSD

1.3109

LME

NICKEL

14000

-0.79 -1.54 -0.46

LME

COPPER

6272 LME

ZINC

2596

$ INDEX94.62

0.05 -0.69 0.06

LME ALUMINIUM

2079 LME

LEAD

2149

DJIA25307

0.30 0.33 -0.57SENSEX

37607NIFTY

11357


NIKKEI22684

-0.13 -0.58 0.58USDINR

68.79 S&P

INDEX

2803

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MCX Gold Oct 2018

Gold dropped as a stronger dollar and rising U.S. interest rates continue to weigh, pushing speculators to hold record short or sell positions.

Gold on MCX settled down -0.15% at 29878 as a stronger dollar and

rising U.S. interest rates continue to weigh, pushing speculators to hold

record short or sell positions. The U.S. Federal Reserve set to reaffirm the

outlook for further gradual rate rises at the end of its two-day rate review

through Wednesday. The U.S. central bank has raised benchmark lending

rates twice this year and signalled two more increases by year’s end. U.S.

consumer spending increased solidly in June as households spent more at

restaurants and on accommodation, building a strong base for the

economy heading into the third quarter, while inflation rose moderately.

China will keep its economic growth within a reasonable range and

achieve this year's target despite challenges, the state-run Xinhua news

agency said as a trade war with the United States intensifies. The Bank of

England should raise interest rates this week but also tell the public it will

be ready to make a U-turn if Brexit talks sour or trade tensions with the

United States escalate, the National Institute of Economic and Social

Research said. Hedge funds and money managers net short positions in

COMEX gold stood at 27,156 contracts in the week to July 24, U.S.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday, the

biggest on records dating back to 2006. The U.S. Mint sold 35,000 ounces

of American Eagle gold coins in July, up 42.9 percent from the previous

month, according to the latest data. Technically market is under fresh

selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 27.62% to

settled at 7075, now Gold is getting support at 29747 and below same

could see a test of 29617 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at

29973, a move above could see prices testing 30069.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

29850

SUPPORT 3

30199 30069 29973 29747 29617 29521

29939 29713 29878 -0.15 7075

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2


Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 29617-30069.

The U.S. Federal Reserve begins its two-day monetary policy meeting; the central bank is largely expected to stand pat on monetary policy.

The U.S. central bank has raised benchmark lending rates twice this year and markets expected two more hikes by the end of 2018.

Hedge funds and money managers increased their net short position in COMEX gold contracts to their highest since 2006, in the week to July 24, CFTC data showed.

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MCX Silver Sep 2018

Silver remained under pressure as stronger dollar and rising interest rates weighed on the metal.

Silver remained under pressure as stronger dollar and rising interest rates

weighed on the metal. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest

rates unchanged on Wednesday, but solid economic growth combined

with rising inflation are likely to keep it on track for another two hikes this

year even as President Donald Trump has ramped up criticism of its push

to raise rates. News of renewed trade talks between the U.S. and China

and strong economic data boosted the greenback. The two largest

economies in the world have remained in a tit-for-tat battle over the past

few months due to trade disagreements. U.S. consumer spending

increased solidly in June as households spent more at restaurants and on

accommodation, building a strong base for the economy heading into the

third quarter, while inflation rose moderately. Prices also continued to rise

steadily last month. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price

index excluding the volatile food and energy components gained 0.1%

from a month ago in June. The Commerce Department said that

consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic

activity in the US, rose 0.4% last month. Eurozone gross domestic

product (GDP) grew by just 0.3% quarter on quarter during the April-June

period, slower than the 0.4% in the January-March period, the European

Union (EU)'s statistical office Eurostat said. On a yearly basis, the growth

rate slipped to 2.1% in the second quarter from 2.5% in the first quarter.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in

open interest by 3.04% to settled at 24239 while prices down -21 rupees,

now Silver is getting support at 38069 and below same could see a test of

37816 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38506, a move

above could see prices testing 38690.


38250 38437

38943 38690 38506 38069 37816 37632

38000 38321 -0.05 24239

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 37816-38690.

Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but solid economic growth combined with rising inflation are likely to keep it on track for another hikes.

U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in June, building a strong base for the economy heading into the third quarter, while inflation rose moderately.

The Conference Board consumer confidence index increased marginally to 127.4 in July from 127.1 in June.

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MCX Crudeoil Aug 2018

Crude oil dropped as easing expectations for steep losses of Iranian crude offset data expected to show U.S. oil stockpiles fell for the second-straight week.

Crudeoil on MCX settled down -1.87% at 4734 as concerns surrounding

Iranian oil eased and traders’ attention started to shift to weekly data on

U.S. petroleum inventories. Iranian officials reportedly rejected the

proposal, preferring Trump to first make up for pulling the United States

out from the multilateral nuclear deal. The nuclear trade deal had lifted

sanctions on Iran in exchange for regular inspections of the country's

nuclear facilities. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed

domestic crude inventories rose by 5.6 million barrels last week. Signs

that a supply disruption in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea could

be resolved also weighed on prices. Yemen's Houthi group said it was

ready to unilaterally halt attacks in the Red Sea to support peace efforts.

Saudi Arabia suspended oil shipments through the strait last week after

the Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers. At the same time, the

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has boosted output on

higher production by Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and

Nigeria, analysts at Commerzbank noted. OPEC and other major

producers, including Russia, agreed in June to raise output in an effort to

make up for lost barrels from countries like Venezuela and Iran, while

remaining within output curbs they previously agreed to, which have

been credited with helping to work off a global glut of crude oil. OPEC has

pledged to offset the loss of supply from Iran, the group's third-biggest

producer. Looming U.S. sanctions have already started to cut Iranian

exports, with buyers from its biggest customers in Asia cutting imports to

a seven-month low in June. Technically now Crudeoil is getting support at

4685 and below same could see a test of 4636 level, And resistance is

now likely to be seen at 4799, a move above could see prices testing

4864.


4815 4815

4913 4864 4799 4685 4636 4571

4701 4734 -1.87 10297

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4636-4864.

Pressure also seen as oversupply concerns rose after a Reuters survey showed OPEC output rose in July to its highest for 2018.

The survey showed OPEC increased production 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 32.64 million bpd in July, the most this year.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed domestic crude inventories rose by 5.6 million barrels last week.

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MCX Copper Aug 2018

Copper prices recovered to settled with gains near 1.12% at 430.15 with talks of a strike at Escondida mine spurring the red metal higher.

Copper on MCX settled up 1.12% at 430.15 on short covering as support

seen after the report that China and the United States were trying to

restart trade talks lifted sentiment, overshadowing an uptick in the dollar.

The U.S. and China are trying to restart talks on trade to avert a full-

blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The report

comes as focus shifted to U.S.-China trade tensions as the next wave

tariffs on imported goods from China is expected to come into effect

Wednesday, with China vowing to retaliate in kind. Yet renewed efforts by

both countries to find common ground on trade issues dominated trading

direction in metals, offsetting a rise in the dollar. The U.S. dollar index

rose by 0.18% to 94.31 as the Fed's two-day meeting got underway.

Meanwhile Workers at Codelco’s Chuquicamata copper mine in Chile, the

state miner’s second largest by output, walked off the job on Monday and

blocked access to the mine, union leaders said, in a move criticised as

“illegal” by Codelco. The union at BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile, is

expected overwhelmingly to reject the final contract offer from the Anglo-

Australian miner, increasing the likelihood of a strike, a union leader told.

Union members have until Wednesday to finish voting on the company’s

proposal, when the union will conduct an official count. After that, either

party can call for government-mediated arbitration that could last up to

10 days. Now technically market is getting support at 424.2 and below

same could see a test of 418.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be

seen at 433.7, a move above could see prices testing 437.1.


425.90

SUPPORT 3

443.2 437.1 433.7 424.2 418.1 414.7

431.00 421.55 430.15 1.12 24087


Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 418.1-437.1.

Workers at Codelco's Chuquicamata copper mine in Chile, walked off the job on Monday morning and blocked access to the mine, union leaders said

The union at BHP's Escondida mine in Chile, is expected to overwhelmingly reject the final contract offer from the Anglo-Australian miner, increasing the likelihood of a strike.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 254425mt that is down by -1850mt.


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MCX Zinc Aug 2018

Zinc gained following reports that the US and China are restarting talks to avoid a trade war.

Zinc on MCX settled up 2.97% at 181.95 on fresh buying while on LME

zinc prices dropped 0.9 percent to $2,603 a tonne overnight weighed

down by a stronger dollar making metals more expensive for holders of

other currencies, and after growth in China's manufacturing sector cooled

for a second month. Zinc prices are down 11 percent so far in July, which

would mark its steepest monthly drop since September 2011, amid fears

of oversupply and that a Sino-U.S. trade war could hurt demand. Three-

month zinc on the LME fell by 0.7 percent to $2,539 a tonne, while

Shanghai zinc fell by 1.1 percent to 21,055 yuan ($3,091.69) a tonne, on

course for its worst month since December 2016. Traders are watching a

large holding of zinc warrants and cash contracts between 50 and 79

percent, which potentially means nearby tightness on the LME market. It

is one reason why the premium for the cash over the three-month

contract rose above $60 a tonne on Monday, its highest since October last

year. It was last at $50 a tonne. Zinc surged 3.4%, copper and nickel

jumped over 1%, aluminium, tin and lead inched up. While Trade tension,

high temperatures and heavy rainfall in July affected companies. July is

also typically a low season for some sectors, said statistics bureau official

Zhao Qinghe. Now technically market is under fresh buying as market has

witnessed gain in open interest by 30.05% to settled at 4648 while prices

up 5.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 178.8 and below same

could see a test of 175.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at

183.8, a move above could see prices testing 185.5.


177.9

SUPPORT 3

188.8 185.5 183.8 178.8 175.5 173.8

182.2 177.2 182.0 2.97 4648


Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 175.5-185.5.

China's official PMI fell to 51.2 in July, from 51.5 in June, but remained above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction for the 24th straight month.

Social inventories of zinc in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin grew over the weekend as the low season continued to accumulate stocks in Tianjin and Guangdong.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 240125mt that is down by -1925mt.


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MCX Nickel Aug 2018

Nickel gained after fresh production cuts across local steel mills in Changzhou, Jiangsu province will affect daily pig iron output of some 22,800 mt.

Nickel on MCX settled up 1.25% at 964.70 on fresh buying prices moved

higher at the close of trading on Tuesday July 31, supported by easing

trade relations between the United States and China amid broad stock

drawdowns and a seasonal summer slowdown. Nickel prices came under

pressure earlier after data showed growth in China’s manufacturing sector

slowed more than expected in July, as the trade dispute, bad weather and

weaker domestic demand weighed on factory activity. China’s official

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released on Tuesday fell to 51.2 in July

from 51.5 in June and below the 51.3. Last night the US dollar index

inched up 0.17% overnight and stood at 94.5 as investors await the

conclusion of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee

meeting on Wednesday. LME base metals rose across the board on

Tuesday. Zinc surged 3.4%, copper and nickel jumped over 1%,

aluminium, tin and lead inched up. While Trade tension, high

temperatures and heavy rainfall in July affected companies. July is also

typically a low season for some sectors, said statistics bureau official

Zhao Qinghe. Day ahead key factors to watch today will be Caixin’s July

manufacturing PMI for China, Markit’s July manufacturing PMI for the US

and eurozone, ISM manufacturing PMI for the US, US ADP payrolls in July

and the US weekly crude oil inventory data from the Energy Information

Administration (EIA). Technically market is under fresh buying as market

has witnessed gain in open interest by 110.68% to settled at 5956 while

prices up 11.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 953.1 and below




951.9

SUPPORT 3

989.3 977.6 971.2 953.1 941.4 935.0

965.9 947.8 964.7 1.25 5956


Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 941.4-977.6.

Medium-grade nickel ore prices are only expected to rebound from late September as supply overhang is to stay for the third quarter.

Buyers were not as keen to stockpile as they were last year as shipments from Indonesia would make up for some loss from the Philippines.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 256044mt that is down by -114mt.


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NCDEX Jeera Sep 2018

Jeera prices dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported by the anticipation of higher exports from China and Bangladesh.

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 2.35% at 20275 supported by anticipation

of higher exports from China and Bangladesh due to restricted supplies

from Syria. A trade body-The Federation of Indian Spices Stakeholders

(FISS) - projected India's 2017-18 jeera output at 6.92 million bags up

19% on year on the back of higher acreage and favourable weather.

However, increase in total availability is estimated to be flat due to lower

carry forward stocks. There are reports of good export demand from

Bangladesh and China. Jeera export during this fiscal may touch 175,000

ton level up from 143,670 ton jeera during 2017-18. India exported

143,670 ton jeera during 2017-18 up from 119,000 ton a year ago due to

increased demand from China and Bangladesh. India is expected to

export a record 175,000 tn of jeera in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar), primarily

because supply from its competitors has taken a hit making it the sole

supplier of the largely sought after spice, trade officials said. At Unjha

market in Mehsana , total arrivals are at 15000 bags, higher by 9000

bags as against previous day. At Rajkot market in Rajkot(Guj.),

estimated market supply was at 1200 quintal, up by 1168 quintal as

against previous day. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera

remains unchanged at0 Rupees to end at 19371.45 Rupees per 100

kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed

drop in open interest by -2.53% to settled at 6234 while prices up 465

rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 19730 and below same could see

a test of 19190 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 20645, a

move above could see prices testing 21020.


20660

SUPPORT 3

21165 20975 20680 20195 20005 19710

20785 20300 20390 -0.34 3384


Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6797-6797.

Mandi sources maintained that export enquiries have been good as India is the only jeera supplier to the world market currently.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 12 tonnes to 2280 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 19735 rupee per 100 kg.


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NCDEX Turmeric Sep 2018

Turmeric prices dropped triggered by adequate stocks position on increased arrivals from producing regions in the physical market.

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -1.3% at 7312 triggered by

adequate stocks position on increased arrivals from producing regions in

the physical market. Moreover, report on good progress of sowing in

Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra also dragged the prices further. In

Telangana, Turmeric sowing reported 45,583 hectares as compared to

38,254 hectares in the corresponding period last year. 83% sowing

completed from season normal. Till now, Nizamabad region reported

13,993 hectares compared to last year 9,859 hectares and Warangal

(rural) reported 4,453 hectares compared to last year 3,825 hectares.

Only 1,400 bags of turmeric arrived for sale. The arrival of turmeric for

sale is very low. Of the arrival of 1,400 bags only 55 per cent turmeric

were sold. The arrival and sale was too low at the Regulated Marketing

Committee. 189 bags of turmeric were brought by the farmers, but the

traders have purchased only 25 per cent of the arrived turmeric. Farmers

and stockists were holding back their old stocks on expectation of higher

prices in coming days as current year production is likely to decline due to

lower acreage by 40-45% in Tamil Nadu. As per market sources,

currently Nizamabad turmeric stocks were estimated around 1.20 lakh

bags as compared to around 2.00 lakh bags same time last year. In

Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7420 Rupees

dropped -20 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as

market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.21% to settled at

11925 while prices down -96 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at

7276 and below same could see a test of 7240 level, And resistance is

now likely to be seen at 7372, a move above could see prices testing

7432.


7350

SUPPORT 3

7468 7432 7372 7276 7240 7180

7396 7300 7312 -1.30 11925


Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 7240-7432.

In Telangana, Turmeric sowing reported 45,583 hectares as compared to 38,254 hectares in the corresponding period last year.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 20 tonnes to 5235 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7420 Rupees dropped -20 Rupees.


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MCX Menthaoil Aug 2018

Mentha oil prices rallied due to bullish demand outlook from domestic market as well as exporters.

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 3.09% at 1552.6 due to bullish demand

outlook from domestic market as well as exporters. Spot markets are also

witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. Bumper

crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving

upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal stood at

400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies

rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to preliminary

estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton

against last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be chances of

crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition.

Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices

are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in

production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the

demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around

80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production

stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between

30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in

India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. Mentha oil

spot at Sambhal closed at 1771.70 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by

Rs.53.50/-.Technically market is under short covering as market has

witnessed drop in open interest by -0.76% to settled at 1571 while prices

up 46.6 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1526.2 and below




1515.00

SUPPORT 3

1609.0 1582.7 1567.6 1526.2 1499.9 1484.8

1556.40 1515.00 1552.60 3.09 1571


Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1499.9-1582.7.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1771.70 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.53.50/-.

Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies.

Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users.


TIME ZONE Forecast

CommodityLME STOCK Stock

COPPER -1850 254425

ALUMINIUM -1950 1196300

NICKEL -114 256044

LEAD -200 127125

ZINC -1925 240125

4253 24120 20390 4453 7312 4214 599.7 3392

DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL

COMMODITIESNCDEX CHANA Sep

2018

NCDEX Cotton Oct

2018

NCDEX Jeera Oct

2018

NCDEX Guarseed10

Oct 2018

NCDEX Turmeric

Sep 2018

NCDEX Rmseed Sep

2018MCX CPO Aug 2018

NCDEX Soyabean

Oct 2018

NCDEX

Ref.Soya oil

Sep 2018

742.3CLOSE

P. POINT 4238 24057 20490 4425 7336 4219

4278 24224 20680 4489 7372 4232

RESISTANCE

4343 24494 21165 4590 7468 4262

601.3 3382 742

753

4303 24327 20975 4526 7432 4249 608.8 3442 749

611.7 3477

604.2 3417 746

4324 7240 4189 593.8 3322 735

4213 23954 20195 4388 7276 4202 596.7 3357

732

Cng in OI -2.20 5.50 18.12 -2.36 -0.21 8.65 30.08 -1.91 5.24

SUPPORT

4148 23684 19710 4287 7180 4172 589.2 3297

739

4173 23787 20005

Fresh Buying

LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA

DATA Previous

12:45pm EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 53.1 53.4

TREND Short Covering Fresh Buying Fresh Selling Short Covering Long Liquidation Fresh Selling Fresh Selling Short Covering

1:15pm EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 53.1 53.3

1:20pm EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 53.1 53.1

1:25pm EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 57.3 57.3

1:30pm EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 55.1 55.1

5:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 186K 177K

7:15pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 55.5 55.5

7:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 59.4 60.2

7:30pm USD Construction Spending m/m 0.003 0.004

7:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 75.5 76.8


-1850-1950

-114-200

-1925

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC

LME STOCK

NEWS YOU CAN USE

Growth in China’s factory sector is expected to have slowed for a second month in July amid softer domestic investment and as the worsening trade dispute with the

United States clouds the outlook for external demand. The slowdown in July is expected to be slight, however, as healthy profit margins driven by strong commodities

prices and efforts to limit excess production capacity mean firms are keen to keep their factories humming. However, both of these drivers have slowed this year, as

export growth pulls back and the government reins in credit expansion in a bid to put the economy on a more sustainable growth path. That has raised concerns that the

slowdown in growth could be steeper than expected in the second half of the year, as exports to the United States, China’s largest export market, face higher tariffs.

Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing rapidly deteriorated in July as the world’s two largest economies formally slapped new tariffs on each other’s goods with

threats of more to come. China’s economic growth slowed slightly to 6.7 percent in the second quarter, but this was still above the official 2018 growth target of around

6.5 percent.

Eurozone economic growth is expected to moderate in the near-term, according to survey of professional forecasters, published by the European Central Bank. Real gross

domestic product is forecast to grow 2.2 percent this year instead of 2.4 percent estimated a quarter ago. Likewise, the outlook for 2019 was revised down to 1.9 percent

from 2 percent. The growth estimate for 2020 was retained at 1.6 percent. Average longer-term expectations for real GDP growth remained unchanged at 1.6 percent.

Inflation is expected to average 1.7 percent each in 2018, 2019 and 2020. This represented upward revisions from 1.5 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent for 2019, but no

change to the expectation for 2020. According to SPF, unemployment rate expectations were little changed, at 8.3 percent, 7.9 percent and 7.6 percent for 2018, 2019

and 2020, respectively.

India’s sugar output is expected to reach a record 35-35.5 million tonnes during the upcoming season beginning October, around 10 per cent more than this year.

According to preliminary estimates by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), sugar production in 2018-19 could touch a new record if monsoon remained normal. A

second consecutive year of bumper harvest could again pull down sugar prices in retail markets, which had shown some signs of revival following a series of steps taken

by the government, leading to cane arrears. Earlier, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF), too, expressed apprehension over another bumper

harvest in 2018-19 after the record production of 2017-18. Meanwhile, ISMA said sugar output in Uttar Pradesh, the country's leading producer, is estimated to increase

to 13-13.5 million tonnes in 2018-19 from 12.05 million tonnes 2017-18. The production in Maharashtra, the country's second-largest sugar producer, is pegged higher at

11-11.5 million tonnes against 10.71 million tonnes, while in Karnataka, it is expected to rise to 4.48 million tonnes from 3.65 million tonnes. According to ISMA, sugar

output could go up because of higher availability of sugarcane due to an increase in acreage and yields from cane variety Co0238. The industry body said it would come

out with its first production estimate in September after taking into account rains during the July–September period, water level in reservoirs and the second set of

satellite images from across the country. According to the satellite images procured in the latter part of June, sugarcane acreage is estimated to be higher by 8 per cent

at around 5.43 million hectares in 2018-19 against 5.04 million hectares in 2017-18.



The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is

made as to its accuracy completeness or correctness.

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country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S.Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or

Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. Any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure of this report including, but not limited to, redistribution by electronic mail, posting of the report on a website or page, and/or providing to a third party

a link, is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. The information contained in the Report is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient to any third party.

SCSPL generally prohibits its analyst(s), persons reporting to analyst(s), and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the commodities or commodity derivatives that the analyst(s) cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may

provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations

expressed herein. The views expressed in this research report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in

this report. The compensation of the analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by SCSPL however, compensation may relate to the revenues of the Systematix Group as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading are a part. Research analyst(s) and

sales persons of SCSPL may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies).

Foreign currency denominated commodities, wherever mentioned are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively

assume currency risk.

SCSPL, its directors, analyst(s) or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report including but not restricted to changes in the currency rates, reduction in

the income, etc.

SCSPL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities/commodities derivatives thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such

commodities/commodity derivatives and earn brokerage or other compensation (financial interest) or act as a market maker in the financial instruments discussed herein or have other potential material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and

opinions. The views expressed are those of the analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to the views expressed therein.

SCSPL, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without

limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SCSPL, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties. The

Report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the Report refers to website material of the Company, the Company has not reviewed the linked site. Accessing such website or following such link through the report or the website of

the Company shall be at your own risk and the Company shall have no liability arising out of, or in connection with, any such referenced website

SCSPL shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any technical glitch to present the data. In no event shall the SCSPL be liable for any damages, including without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or

consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by SCSPL through this presentation.

Neither SCSPL, nor any of its other group companies or associates, shall be responsible for any decisions taken on the basis of this report. Investors are advised to consult their Investment and Tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report.

Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited.:

Registered and Corporate address: The Capital, A-wing, No. 603 – 606, 6th Floor, Plot No. C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051

CIN - U01119MH1994PTC266348 | MCX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 | NCDEX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 Member Code: MCX: 29790 | NCDEX: 534

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