Daily Commodity Roundup as on Wednesday, August 01, 2018
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1
15.48CRUDE $
68.70
-0.16 -0.09 -2.04
IN
TER
NA
TIO
NA
L M
AR
KET U
PD
ATE GOLD $
1221.76SILVER $
USDJPY111.939
-0.05 -0.07 0.1EURUSD
1.1680GBPUSD
1.3109
LME
NICKEL
14000
-0.79 -1.54 -0.46
LME
COPPER
6272 LME
ZINC
2596
$ INDEX94.62
0.05 -0.69 0.06
LME ALUMINIUM
2079 LME
LEAD
2149
DJIA25307
0.30 0.33 -0.57SENSEX
37607NIFTY
11357
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 2
NIKKEI22684
-0.13 -0.58 0.58USDINR
68.79 S&P
INDEX
2803
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MCX Gold Oct 2018
Gold dropped as a stronger dollar and rising U.S. interest rates continue to weigh, pushing speculators to hold record short or sell positions.
Gold on MCX settled down -0.15% at 29878 as a stronger dollar and
rising U.S. interest rates continue to weigh, pushing speculators to hold
record short or sell positions. The U.S. Federal Reserve set to reaffirm the
outlook for further gradual rate rises at the end of its two-day rate review
through Wednesday. The U.S. central bank has raised benchmark lending
rates twice this year and signalled two more increases by year’s end. U.S.
consumer spending increased solidly in June as households spent more at
restaurants and on accommodation, building a strong base for the
economy heading into the third quarter, while inflation rose moderately.
China will keep its economic growth within a reasonable range and
achieve this year's target despite challenges, the state-run Xinhua news
agency said as a trade war with the United States intensifies. The Bank of
England should raise interest rates this week but also tell the public it will
be ready to make a U-turn if Brexit talks sour or trade tensions with the
United States escalate, the National Institute of Economic and Social
Research said. Hedge funds and money managers net short positions in
COMEX gold stood at 27,156 contracts in the week to July 24, U.S.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday, the
biggest on records dating back to 2006. The U.S. Mint sold 35,000 ounces
of American Eagle gold coins in July, up 42.9 percent from the previous
month, according to the latest data. Technically market is under fresh
selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 27.62% to
settled at 7075, now Gold is getting support at 29747 and below same
could see a test of 29617 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at
29973, a move above could see prices testing 30069.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
29850
SUPPORT 3
30199 30069 29973 29747 29617 29521
29939 29713 29878 -0.15 7075
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 3
Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 29617-30069.
The U.S. Federal Reserve begins its two-day monetary policy meeting; the central bank is largely expected to stand pat on monetary policy.
The U.S. central bank has raised benchmark lending rates twice this year and markets expected two more hikes by the end of 2018.
Hedge funds and money managers increased their net short position in COMEX gold contracts to their highest since 2006, in the week to July 24, CFTC data showed.
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MCX Silver Sep 2018
Silver remained under pressure as stronger dollar and rising interest rates weighed on the metal.
Silver remained under pressure as stronger dollar and rising interest rates
weighed on the metal. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest
rates unchanged on Wednesday, but solid economic growth combined
with rising inflation are likely to keep it on track for another two hikes this
year even as President Donald Trump has ramped up criticism of its push
to raise rates. News of renewed trade talks between the U.S. and China
and strong economic data boosted the greenback. The two largest
economies in the world have remained in a tit-for-tat battle over the past
few months due to trade disagreements. U.S. consumer spending
increased solidly in June as households spent more at restaurants and on
accommodation, building a strong base for the economy heading into the
third quarter, while inflation rose moderately. Prices also continued to rise
steadily last month. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price
index excluding the volatile food and energy components gained 0.1%
from a month ago in June. The Commerce Department said that
consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic
activity in the US, rose 0.4% last month. Eurozone gross domestic
product (GDP) grew by just 0.3% quarter on quarter during the April-June
period, slower than the 0.4% in the January-March period, the European
Union (EU)'s statistical office Eurostat said. On a yearly basis, the growth
rate slipped to 2.1% in the second quarter from 2.5% in the first quarter.
Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in
open interest by 3.04% to settled at 24239 while prices down -21 rupees,
now Silver is getting support at 38069 and below same could see a test of
37816 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38506, a move
above could see prices testing 38690.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
38250 38437
38943 38690 38506 38069 37816 37632
38000 38321 -0.05 24239
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 4
Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 37816-38690.
Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but solid economic growth combined with rising inflation are likely to keep it on track for another hikes.
U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in June, building a strong base for the economy heading into the third quarter, while inflation rose moderately.
The Conference Board consumer confidence index increased marginally to 127.4 in July from 127.1 in June.
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MCX Crudeoil Aug 2018
Crude oil dropped as easing expectations for steep losses of Iranian crude offset data expected to show U.S. oil stockpiles fell for the second-straight week.
Crudeoil on MCX settled down -1.87% at 4734 as concerns surrounding
Iranian oil eased and traders’ attention started to shift to weekly data on
U.S. petroleum inventories. Iranian officials reportedly rejected the
proposal, preferring Trump to first make up for pulling the United States
out from the multilateral nuclear deal. The nuclear trade deal had lifted
sanctions on Iran in exchange for regular inspections of the country's
nuclear facilities. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed
domestic crude inventories rose by 5.6 million barrels last week. Signs
that a supply disruption in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea could
be resolved also weighed on prices. Yemen's Houthi group said it was
ready to unilaterally halt attacks in the Red Sea to support peace efforts.
Saudi Arabia suspended oil shipments through the strait last week after
the Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers. At the same time, the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has boosted output on
higher production by Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and
Nigeria, analysts at Commerzbank noted. OPEC and other major
producers, including Russia, agreed in June to raise output in an effort to
make up for lost barrels from countries like Venezuela and Iran, while
remaining within output curbs they previously agreed to, which have
been credited with helping to work off a global glut of crude oil. OPEC has
pledged to offset the loss of supply from Iran, the group's third-biggest
producer. Looming U.S. sanctions have already started to cut Iranian
exports, with buyers from its biggest customers in Asia cutting imports to
a seven-month low in June. Technically now Crudeoil is getting support at
4685 and below same could see a test of 4636 level, And resistance is
now likely to be seen at 4799, a move above could see prices testing
4864.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
4815 4815
4913 4864 4799 4685 4636 4571
4701 4734 -1.87 10297
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 5
Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4636-4864.
Pressure also seen as oversupply concerns rose after a Reuters survey showed OPEC output rose in July to its highest for 2018.
The survey showed OPEC increased production 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 32.64 million bpd in July, the most this year.
Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed domestic crude inventories rose by 5.6 million barrels last week.
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MCX Copper Aug 2018
Copper prices recovered to settled with gains near 1.12% at 430.15 with talks of a strike at Escondida mine spurring the red metal higher.
Copper on MCX settled up 1.12% at 430.15 on short covering as support
seen after the report that China and the United States were trying to
restart trade talks lifted sentiment, overshadowing an uptick in the dollar.
The U.S. and China are trying to restart talks on trade to avert a full-
blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The report
comes as focus shifted to U.S.-China trade tensions as the next wave
tariffs on imported goods from China is expected to come into effect
Wednesday, with China vowing to retaliate in kind. Yet renewed efforts by
both countries to find common ground on trade issues dominated trading
direction in metals, offsetting a rise in the dollar. The U.S. dollar index
rose by 0.18% to 94.31 as the Fed's two-day meeting got underway.
Meanwhile Workers at Codelco’s Chuquicamata copper mine in Chile, the
state miner’s second largest by output, walked off the job on Monday and
blocked access to the mine, union leaders said, in a move criticised as
“illegal” by Codelco. The union at BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile, is
expected overwhelmingly to reject the final contract offer from the Anglo-
Australian miner, increasing the likelihood of a strike, a union leader told.
Union members have until Wednesday to finish voting on the company’s
proposal, when the union will conduct an official count. After that, either
party can call for government-mediated arbitration that could last up to
10 days. Now technically market is getting support at 424.2 and below
same could see a test of 418.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be
seen at 433.7, a move above could see prices testing 437.1.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
425.90
SUPPORT 3
443.2 437.1 433.7 424.2 418.1 414.7
431.00 421.55 430.15 1.12 24087
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 418.1-437.1.
Workers at Codelco's Chuquicamata copper mine in Chile, walked off the job on Monday morning and blocked access to the mine, union leaders said
The union at BHP's Escondida mine in Chile, is expected to overwhelmingly reject the final contract offer from the Anglo-Australian miner, increasing the likelihood of a strike.
Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 254425mt that is down by -1850mt.
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 6
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MCX Zinc Aug 2018
Zinc gained following reports that the US and China are restarting talks to avoid a trade war.
Zinc on MCX settled up 2.97% at 181.95 on fresh buying while on LME
zinc prices dropped 0.9 percent to $2,603 a tonne overnight weighed
down by a stronger dollar making metals more expensive for holders of
other currencies, and after growth in China's manufacturing sector cooled
for a second month. Zinc prices are down 11 percent so far in July, which
would mark its steepest monthly drop since September 2011, amid fears
of oversupply and that a Sino-U.S. trade war could hurt demand. Three-
month zinc on the LME fell by 0.7 percent to $2,539 a tonne, while
Shanghai zinc fell by 1.1 percent to 21,055 yuan ($3,091.69) a tonne, on
course for its worst month since December 2016. Traders are watching a
large holding of zinc warrants and cash contracts between 50 and 79
percent, which potentially means nearby tightness on the LME market. It
is one reason why the premium for the cash over the three-month
contract rose above $60 a tonne on Monday, its highest since October last
year. It was last at $50 a tonne. Zinc surged 3.4%, copper and nickel
jumped over 1%, aluminium, tin and lead inched up. While Trade tension,
high temperatures and heavy rainfall in July affected companies. July is
also typically a low season for some sectors, said statistics bureau official
Zhao Qinghe. Now technically market is under fresh buying as market has
witnessed gain in open interest by 30.05% to settled at 4648 while prices
up 5.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 178.8 and below same
could see a test of 175.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at
183.8, a move above could see prices testing 185.5.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
177.9
SUPPORT 3
188.8 185.5 183.8 178.8 175.5 173.8
182.2 177.2 182.0 2.97 4648
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 175.5-185.5.
China's official PMI fell to 51.2 in July, from 51.5 in June, but remained above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction for the 24th straight month.
Social inventories of zinc in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin grew over the weekend as the low season continued to accumulate stocks in Tianjin and Guangdong.
Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 240125mt that is down by -1925mt.
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 7
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MCX Nickel Aug 2018
Nickel gained after fresh production cuts across local steel mills in Changzhou, Jiangsu province will affect daily pig iron output of some 22,800 mt.
Nickel on MCX settled up 1.25% at 964.70 on fresh buying prices moved
higher at the close of trading on Tuesday July 31, supported by easing
trade relations between the United States and China amid broad stock
drawdowns and a seasonal summer slowdown. Nickel prices came under
pressure earlier after data showed growth in China’s manufacturing sector
slowed more than expected in July, as the trade dispute, bad weather and
weaker domestic demand weighed on factory activity. China’s official
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released on Tuesday fell to 51.2 in July
from 51.5 in June and below the 51.3. Last night the US dollar index
inched up 0.17% overnight and stood at 94.5 as investors await the
conclusion of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee
meeting on Wednesday. LME base metals rose across the board on
Tuesday. Zinc surged 3.4%, copper and nickel jumped over 1%,
aluminium, tin and lead inched up. While Trade tension, high
temperatures and heavy rainfall in July affected companies. July is also
typically a low season for some sectors, said statistics bureau official
Zhao Qinghe. Day ahead key factors to watch today will be Caixin’s July
manufacturing PMI for China, Markit’s July manufacturing PMI for the US
and eurozone, ISM manufacturing PMI for the US, US ADP payrolls in July
and the US weekly crude oil inventory data from the Energy Information
Administration (EIA). Technically market is under fresh buying as market
has witnessed gain in open interest by 110.68% to settled at 5956 while
prices up 11.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 953.1 and below
same could see a test of 941.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be
seen at 971.2, a move above could see prices testing 977.6.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
951.9
SUPPORT 3
989.3 977.6 971.2 953.1 941.4 935.0
965.9 947.8 964.7 1.25 5956
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 941.4-977.6.
Medium-grade nickel ore prices are only expected to rebound from late September as supply overhang is to stay for the third quarter.
Buyers were not as keen to stockpile as they were last year as shipments from Indonesia would make up for some loss from the Philippines.
Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 256044mt that is down by -114mt.
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 8
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NCDEX Jeera Sep 2018
Jeera prices dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported by the anticipation of higher exports from China and Bangladesh.
Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 2.35% at 20275 supported by anticipation
of higher exports from China and Bangladesh due to restricted supplies
from Syria. A trade body-The Federation of Indian Spices Stakeholders
(FISS) - projected India's 2017-18 jeera output at 6.92 million bags up
19% on year on the back of higher acreage and favourable weather.
However, increase in total availability is estimated to be flat due to lower
carry forward stocks. There are reports of good export demand from
Bangladesh and China. Jeera export during this fiscal may touch 175,000
ton level up from 143,670 ton jeera during 2017-18. India exported
143,670 ton jeera during 2017-18 up from 119,000 ton a year ago due to
increased demand from China and Bangladesh. India is expected to
export a record 175,000 tn of jeera in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar), primarily
because supply from its competitors has taken a hit making it the sole
supplier of the largely sought after spice, trade officials said. At Unjha
market in Mehsana , total arrivals are at 15000 bags, higher by 9000
bags as against previous day. At Rajkot market in Rajkot(Guj.),
estimated market supply was at 1200 quintal, up by 1168 quintal as
against previous day. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera
remains unchanged at0 Rupees to end at 19371.45 Rupees per 100
kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed
drop in open interest by -2.53% to settled at 6234 while prices up 465
rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 19730 and below same could see
a test of 19190 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 20645, a
move above could see prices testing 21020.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
20660
SUPPORT 3
21165 20975 20680 20195 20005 19710
20785 20300 20390 -0.34 3384
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6797-6797.
Mandi sources maintained that export enquiries have been good as India is the only jeera supplier to the world market currently.
NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 12 tonnes to 2280 tonnes.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 19735 rupee per 100 kg.
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 9
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NCDEX Turmeric Sep 2018
Turmeric prices dropped triggered by adequate stocks position on increased arrivals from producing regions in the physical market.
Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -1.3% at 7312 triggered by
adequate stocks position on increased arrivals from producing regions in
the physical market. Moreover, report on good progress of sowing in
Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra also dragged the prices further. In
Telangana, Turmeric sowing reported 45,583 hectares as compared to
38,254 hectares in the corresponding period last year. 83% sowing
completed from season normal. Till now, Nizamabad region reported
13,993 hectares compared to last year 9,859 hectares and Warangal
(rural) reported 4,453 hectares compared to last year 3,825 hectares.
Only 1,400 bags of turmeric arrived for sale. The arrival of turmeric for
sale is very low. Of the arrival of 1,400 bags only 55 per cent turmeric
were sold. The arrival and sale was too low at the Regulated Marketing
Committee. 189 bags of turmeric were brought by the farmers, but the
traders have purchased only 25 per cent of the arrived turmeric. Farmers
and stockists were holding back their old stocks on expectation of higher
prices in coming days as current year production is likely to decline due to
lower acreage by 40-45% in Tamil Nadu. As per market sources,
currently Nizamabad turmeric stocks were estimated around 1.20 lakh
bags as compared to around 2.00 lakh bags same time last year. In
Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7420 Rupees
dropped -20 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as
market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.21% to settled at
11925 while prices down -96 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at
7276 and below same could see a test of 7240 level, And resistance is
now likely to be seen at 7372, a move above could see prices testing
7432.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
7350
SUPPORT 3
7468 7432 7372 7276 7240 7180
7396 7300 7312 -1.30 11925
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 7240-7432.
In Telangana, Turmeric sowing reported 45,583 hectares as compared to 38,254 hectares in the corresponding period last year.
NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 20 tonnes to 5235 tonnes.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7420 Rupees dropped -20 Rupees.
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 10
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MCX Menthaoil Aug 2018
Mentha oil prices rallied due to bullish demand outlook from domestic market as well as exporters.
Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 3.09% at 1552.6 due to bullish demand
outlook from domestic market as well as exporters. Spot markets are also
witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. Bumper
crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving
upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal stood at
400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies
rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to preliminary
estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton
against last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be chances of
crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition.
Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices
are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in
production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the
demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around
80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production
stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between
30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in
India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. Mentha oil
spot at Sambhal closed at 1771.70 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by
Rs.53.50/-.Technically market is under short covering as market has
witnessed drop in open interest by -0.76% to settled at 1571 while prices
up 46.6 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1526.2 and below
same could see a test of 1499.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be
seen at 1567.6, a move above could see prices testing 1582.7.
OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST
1515.00
SUPPORT 3
1609.0 1582.7 1567.6 1526.2 1499.9 1484.8
1556.40 1515.00 1552.60 3.09 1571
RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2
Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1499.9-1582.7.
Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1771.70 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.53.50/-.
Spot markets are also witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies.
Bumper crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving upwards on rising demand from end users.
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 11
TIME ZONE Forecast
CommodityLME STOCK Stock
COPPER -1850 254425
ALUMINIUM -1950 1196300
NICKEL -114 256044
LEAD -200 127125
ZINC -1925 240125
4253 24120 20390 4453 7312 4214 599.7 3392
DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL
COMMODITIESNCDEX CHANA Sep
2018
NCDEX Cotton Oct
2018
NCDEX Jeera Oct
2018
NCDEX Guarseed10
Oct 2018
NCDEX Turmeric
Sep 2018
NCDEX Rmseed Sep
2018MCX CPO Aug 2018
NCDEX Soyabean
Oct 2018
NCDEX
Ref.Soya oil
Sep 2018
742.3CLOSE
P. POINT 4238 24057 20490 4425 7336 4219
4278 24224 20680 4489 7372 4232
RESISTANCE
4343 24494 21165 4590 7468 4262
601.3 3382 742
753
4303 24327 20975 4526 7432 4249 608.8 3442 749
611.7 3477
604.2 3417 746
4324 7240 4189 593.8 3322 735
4213 23954 20195 4388 7276 4202 596.7 3357
732
Cng in OI -2.20 5.50 18.12 -2.36 -0.21 8.65 30.08 -1.91 5.24
SUPPORT
4148 23684 19710 4287 7180 4172 589.2 3297
739
4173 23787 20005
Fresh Buying
LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA
DATA Previous
12:45pm EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 53.1 53.4
TREND Short Covering Fresh Buying Fresh Selling Short Covering Long Liquidation Fresh Selling Fresh Selling Short Covering
1:15pm EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 53.1 53.3
1:20pm EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 53.1 53.1
1:25pm EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 57.3 57.3
1:30pm EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 55.1 55.1
5:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 186K 177K
7:15pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 55.5 55.5
7:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 59.4 60.2
7:30pm USD Construction Spending m/m 0.003 0.004
7:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 75.5 76.8
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 12
-1850-1950
-114-200
-1925
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC
LME STOCK
NEWS YOU CAN USE
Growth in China’s factory sector is expected to have slowed for a second month in July amid softer domestic investment and as the worsening trade dispute with the
United States clouds the outlook for external demand. The slowdown in July is expected to be slight, however, as healthy profit margins driven by strong commodities
prices and efforts to limit excess production capacity mean firms are keen to keep their factories humming. However, both of these drivers have slowed this year, as
export growth pulls back and the government reins in credit expansion in a bid to put the economy on a more sustainable growth path. That has raised concerns that the
slowdown in growth could be steeper than expected in the second half of the year, as exports to the United States, China’s largest export market, face higher tariffs.
Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing rapidly deteriorated in July as the world’s two largest economies formally slapped new tariffs on each other’s goods with
threats of more to come. China’s economic growth slowed slightly to 6.7 percent in the second quarter, but this was still above the official 2018 growth target of around
6.5 percent.
Eurozone economic growth is expected to moderate in the near-term, according to survey of professional forecasters, published by the European Central Bank. Real gross
domestic product is forecast to grow 2.2 percent this year instead of 2.4 percent estimated a quarter ago. Likewise, the outlook for 2019 was revised down to 1.9 percent
from 2 percent. The growth estimate for 2020 was retained at 1.6 percent. Average longer-term expectations for real GDP growth remained unchanged at 1.6 percent.
Inflation is expected to average 1.7 percent each in 2018, 2019 and 2020. This represented upward revisions from 1.5 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent for 2019, but no
change to the expectation for 2020. According to SPF, unemployment rate expectations were little changed, at 8.3 percent, 7.9 percent and 7.6 percent for 2018, 2019
and 2020, respectively.
India’s sugar output is expected to reach a record 35-35.5 million tonnes during the upcoming season beginning October, around 10 per cent more than this year.
According to preliminary estimates by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), sugar production in 2018-19 could touch a new record if monsoon remained normal. A
second consecutive year of bumper harvest could again pull down sugar prices in retail markets, which had shown some signs of revival following a series of steps taken
by the government, leading to cane arrears. Earlier, the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF), too, expressed apprehension over another bumper
harvest in 2018-19 after the record production of 2017-18. Meanwhile, ISMA said sugar output in Uttar Pradesh, the country's leading producer, is estimated to increase
to 13-13.5 million tonnes in 2018-19 from 12.05 million tonnes 2017-18. The production in Maharashtra, the country's second-largest sugar producer, is pegged higher at
11-11.5 million tonnes against 10.71 million tonnes, while in Karnataka, it is expected to rise to 4.48 million tonnes from 3.65 million tonnes. According to ISMA, sugar
output could go up because of higher availability of sugarcane due to an increase in acreage and yields from cane variety Co0238. The industry body said it would come
out with its first production estimate in September after taking into account rains during the July–September period, water level in reservoirs and the second set of
satellite images from across the country. According to the satellite images procured in the latter part of June, sugarcane acreage is estimated to be higher by 8 per cent
at around 5.43 million hectares in 2018-19 against 5.04 million hectares in 2017-18.
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 13
Date : Wednesday, August 01, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 14
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