Daily Commodity Roundup as onreport.systematixshares.com/Commodity/SYSTEMATIXDAILY... · 2018. 11....

Daily Commodity Roundup as on Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Date : Wednesday, November 28, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1

14.16CRUDE $

51.56

-0.01 0.18 -0.14

IN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

L M

AR

KET U

PD

ATE GOLD $

1214.63SILVER $

USDJPY113.825

-0.02 0.05 0.06EURUSD

1.1292GBPUSD

1.27418

LME

NICKEL

10855

0.45 0.43 1.07

LME

COPPER

6139 LME

ZINC

2434

$ INDEX97.39

0.16 0.76 0.02

LME ALUMINIUM

1928 LME

LEAD

1917

DJIA24640

0.45 0.54 1.46SENSEX

35513NIFTY

10686


NIKKEI22186

-0.07 1.55 1.06USDINR

71.01 S&P

INDEX

2673

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MCX Gold Dec 2018

Gold fell as the dollar rallied after comments from Fed’s Vice Chair Clarida bolstered expectations that the central bank would continue raising interest rates.

Gold on MCX settled down -0.47% at 30402 as the dollar rallied after

comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida bolstered

expectations that the central bank would continue raising interest rates.

The dollar gained after Clarida said the central bank should continue to

gradually raise interest rates, but it was “especially important” to monitor

economic data as monetary policy was getting close to a neutral stance.

In a separate interview, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the

central bank may face a year of difficult decisions, with rates still low by

historic standards but growth ebbing. Meanwhile, investors are also

“jockeying for position” going into the G20 summit, said Michael

Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors. Ahead of a meeting with

Chinese President Xi Jinping at the summit in Argentina this week, U.S.

President Donald Trump said that he was “highly unlikely” to accept

China’s request to hold off from raising tariffs due to take effect on Jan. 1.

The dollar has been the preferred safe haven this year as the U.S.-China

trade war unfolded, thereby denting the appeal of bullion. China’s net

gold imports in October via main conduit Hong Kong more than doubled

from a more than seven-year low touched the previous month as lower

prices revived demand in the world’s top consumer of bullion. Investors

also awaited the minutes from the U.S. Fed’s meeting on Nov. 7-8 for

indications on the future path of rate hikes in 2019, while Fed Chairman

Jerome Powell is due to speak on Wednesday. Technically now Gold is

getting support at 30302 and below same could see a test of 30201 level,

And resistance is now likely to be seen at 30567, a move above could see

prices testing 30731.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

30563

SUPPORT 3

30832 30731 30567 30302 30201 30037

30630 30365 30402 -0.47 6085

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2


Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 30201-30731.

U.S. President Donald Trump seemed to quash hopes of a trade truce with China, dampening risk appetite across the region.

China’s net gold imports in October via main conduit Hong Kong more than doubled from a more than seven-year low touched the previous month.

Both of this week's Fed events are expected to be scrutinized closely by investors for cues on gold market direction.

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MCX Silver Dec 2018

Silver prices dropped as the U.S. dollar firm as a senior Federal Reserve official reaffirmed the need for further rate increases.

Silver prices dropped as the U.S. dollar firm as a senior Federal Reserve

official reaffirmed the need for further rate increases. The Fed should be

even more attentive to new economic data as its gradual interest rate

hikes edge it ever closer to a neutral stance, the U.S. central bank’s

second-in-command said U.S. President Donald Trump kept up his

criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, saying rising interest rates and

other Fed policies were damaging the U.S. economy, the Washington Post

said. U.S. President Donald Trump seemed to quash hopes of a trade

truce with China, dampening risk appetite across the region. Trump said

he expected to move ahead with raising tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese

imports to 25 percent from the current 10 percent and repeated his

threat to slap tariffs on all remaining imports from China. Prime Minister

Theresa May warned that Britain would be thrust into the unknown if

parliament rejects the Brexit deal she has negotiated with the European

Union, as lawmakers from all sides lined up to criticise the agreement.

The Italian government said it was sticking to its main 2019 budget goals

for now, as it awaits a cost analysis of its main spending measures, but

left open the possibility of eventually cutting its deficit target. Hedge

funds and money managers cut their net short positions in Comex gold

and silver contracts in the week to Nov. 20, the U.S. Commodity Futures

Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Monday. Technically now Silver is

getting support at 35599 and below same could see a test of 35427 level,

And resistance is now likely to be seen at 36069, a move above could see



36043 36195

36539 36367 36069 35599 35427 35129

35725 35772 -0.70 17716

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 35427-36367.

US President Trump said he expected to move ahead with raising tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25 percent from the current 10 percent.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak on Wednesday on "The Federal Reserve's Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability" at the New York Economic Club.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise U.S. interest rates for a fourth time this year at its December meeting.

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MCX Crudeoil Dec 2018

Crude oil slipped pulled down by record Saudi Arabian production even as OPEC's top producer pushes for supply cuts ahead of the group's meeting in Austria next week.

Crudeoil on MCX settled down -1.28% at 3631 pulled down by record

Saudi Arabian production even as OPEC's top producer pushes for supply

cuts ahead of the group's meeting in Austria next week. Prices dipped

weighed down by uncertainty over the U.S.-China trade war and signs of

increased global crude production, but losses were limited by

expectations that crude exporters would agree to cut output at an

upcoming OPEC meeting. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting

Countries (OPEC) will meet at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on Dec.

6 to discuss output policy. The OPEC-meeting will follow a gathering by

the Group of 20 (G20) nations, which includes the world's biggest

economies, in Argentina this weekend, at which the Sino-American trade

dispute as well as oil policy are expected to be discussed. Portfolio

managers have slashed their combined net long position in crude futures

by a total of 607 million barrels over the last eight weeks, the largest

reduction over a comparable period since at least 2013, when the current

data series began, exchange data showed. A concern to global markets is

a slowdown in global trade as a result of the Sino-American trade dispute,

swelling debt and a strong dollar that puts pressure on emerging

markets. The World Trade Organization (WTO) said in its latest outlook,

published on Tuesday, that "trade growth is likely to slow further into the

fourth quarter of 2018", with growth likely at its slowest since Oct. 2016.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop

in open interest by -1.36% to settled at 16931, now Crudeoil is getting

support at 3566 and below same could see a test of 3502 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 3710, a move above could see



3668 3726

3854 3790 3710 3566 3502 3422

3582 3631 -1.28 16931

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3502-3790.

Saudi Arabia raised oil production to an all-time high in November, pumping 11.1 million to 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) during the month.

Saudi Arabia has been pushing for an OPEC cut, indicating it may reduce supply by 500,000 bpd.

US oil futures post best one-day performance in eight weeks, up over 2% on speculation that OPEC may agree to cut production early next month

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MCX Copper Nov 2018

Copper dropped following a report that U.S. President Donald Trump expects to move ahead with raising tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports.

Copper on MCX settled down -1.31% at 424.80 eased amid further

uncertainty over the direction of the U.S.-China trade war. U.S. President

Donald Trump is open to reaching a deal on U.S.-China trade irritants

over dinner on Saturday with Chinese leader Xi Jinping but is ready to

hike tariffs on Chinese imports if there is no breakthrough, White House

economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Tuesday. The comments came a

day after Trump, who is due to meet with Xi this week, said he expected

to move ahead with raising tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25

percent from 10 percent currently and would also put tariffs on the rest of

Chinese imports if negotiations are unsuccessful. The greenback rose

after Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida backed further interest

rate hikes, while investors waited on a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome

Powell on Wednesday for clues on how many more times the central bank

is likely to raise interest rates. Last night the US dollar rose to the highest

in two weeks after Federal Reserve vice chairman Richard Clarida said

that the US central bank’s interest-rate policy should be aimed at

sustaining economic expansion and that gradual interest-rate hikes are

the best way forward. Clarida also stressed the importance of monitoring

new economic data as monetary policy is getting close to a neutral

stance. In base metals, expect for SHFE nickel, fell across the board with

LME tin leading the losses and closing 3.06% lower. LME zinc slumped

2.49%, lead lost 2.34%, nickel declined 1.29%, aluminium dropped

1.26%, and copper slid 1%. SHFE tin dipped 1.32%, zinc fell 0.52%,

aluminium, lead, and copper edged down, while nickel went up slightly.

Profits of China’s industrial enterprises above a designated size grew at

an annualised rate of 3.6% in October, down from September’s 4.1%,

according to NBS. Now technically market is getting support at 422.4 and

below same could see a test of 419.9 level, And resistance is now likely to


429.65

SUPPORT 3

435.2 432.7 428.8 422.4 419.9 416.0

430.20 423.80 424.80 -1.31 13706


Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 419.9-432.7.

Copper is down around 15 percent in London so far in 2018 on concerns the U.S.-China trade spat will hurt demand for industrial metals.

China's imports of scrap copper from the United States fell 37 percent from the previous month to just 6,065 tonnes in October

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 137850mt that is up by 750mt.


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MCX Zinc Nov 2018

Zinc dropped as expectations of weaker demand from Chinese steel mills overpowered signs that the market is short of metal.

Zinc on MCX settled down -1.83% at 176.55 as demand worries escalated

on Chinese steel price weakness and mounting U.S.-Sino trade tensions,

while tin prices sank to two-year lows. Concerns seen as U.S. President

Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal he expects to raise tariffs on

$200 billion of Chinese imports to 25 percent from 10 percent. He is due

to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit

in Buenos Aires this week. Zinc’s three-month price continued to slide

over the nearing $2,400 per tonne. Prices are exhibiting a significant

drawdown in LME stock, with zinc’s inventory at 10-year lows. Last night

the US dollar rose to the highest in two weeks after Federal Reserve vice

chairman Richard Clarida said that the US central bank’s interest-rate

policy should be aimed at sustaining economic expansion and that

gradual interest-rate hikes are the best way forward. In base metals,

expect for SHFE nickel, fell across the board with LME tin leading the

losses and closing 3.06% lower. Profits of China’s industrial enterprises

above a designated size grew at an annualised rate of 3.6% in October,

down from September’s 4.1%, according to NBS. The profit growth cooled

for a sixth straight month in October as factory prices and the pace of

sales increases softened amid uncertainties caused by China-US trade

war. The slowdown was largely due to cooling factory-gate inflation and a

high base, NBS official He Ping said in a statement. Now a day ahead the

US will release PCE price index, its GDP for the third quarter, October’s

wholesale Inventories, and weekly crude oil Inventory data from the EIA.

Now technically market is getting support at 175.5 and below same could

see a test of 174.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 177.5,

a move above could see prices testing 178.5.


177.3

SUPPORT 3

179.5 178.5 177.5 175.5 174.5 173.5

177.5 175.6 176.6 -1.83 2361


Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 174.5-178.5.

Zinc prices have fallen 30 percent from a February high as investors anticipated a surge in refined zinc output after a clutch of new mine openings.

The roughly 13.5 million-tonne-a-year zinc market had a 305,000 tonne deficit over January-August, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 121275mt that is down by -325mt.


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MCX Nickel Nov 2018

Nickel dropped amid stronger US dollar on expectations of further interest rate hikes limited the increase ahead of this week's G-20 summit in Argentina.

Nickel on MCX settled down -1.14% at 757.10 as the US dollar gained.

Nickel prices hitting multi-month lows as demand worries escalated on

Chinese steel price weakness and after hopes of a trade truce with China

seemed to have been quashed by United States President Donald Trump.

Steel rebar prices in China, the world’s top metals consumer eased

further after touching their lowest since June earlier this week on faltering

demand and near-record supply. Zinc is used to stimulate carbon steel

while nickel is widely used in stainless steel making. Last night the US

dollar rose to the highest in two weeks after Federal Reserve vice

chairman Richard Clarida said that the US central bank’s interest-rate

policy should be aimed at sustaining economic expansion and that

gradual interest-rate hikes are the best way forward. Clarida also stressed

the importance of monitoring new economic data as monetary policy is

getting close to a neutral stance. Profits of China’s industrial enterprises

above a designated size grew at an annualised rate of 3.6% in October,

down from September’s 4.1%, according to NBS. The profit growth cooled

for a sixth straight month in October as factory prices and the pace of

sales increases softened amid uncertainties caused by China-US trade

war. The slowdown was largely due to cooling factory-gate inflation and a

high base, NBS official He Ping said in a statement. Now a day ahead the

US will release PCE price index, its GDP for the third quarter, October’s

wholesale Inventories, and weekly crude oil Inventory data from the EIA.

Germany will release Gfk's consumer confidence index for December

today. Now technically market is getting support at 753.8 and below

same could see a test of 750.5 level, And resistance is now likely to be

seen at 763, a move above could see prices testing 768.9.


764

SUPPORT 3

772.2 768.9 763.0 753.8 750.5 744.6

765.6 756.4 757.1 -1.14 13461


Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 750.5-768.9.

Nickel inventories in the Shanghai bonded areas barely changed from a week earlier at 29,500 mt as of now, data showed.

US President Trump, who is due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping said that if negotiations were unsuccessful, he would also impose tariffs on the rest of Chinese imports.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 213774mt that is down by -210mt.


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NCDEX Jeera Dec 2018

Jeera settled down due to abundant supply while the export demand is seen lower.

Jeera on NCDEX settled down by -0.13% at 19380 on expectation of

improving acreage on reports of assured irrigation by govt of Gujarat.

Jeera sowing in Gujarat fell to 44,200 hectares from 130,100 hectares a

year ago due to lack of water, state government data showed. Sowing is

likely to pickup in the coming weeks. However, there are doubts of any

increase in acreage due to dry weather. Moreover, concern that standing

cumin crops might get affected amid scanty rainfalls also supported

upward trend in prices. Deficient rainfall in key producing region of

Gujarat like Saurashtra and Kutch may lower the acreage. According to

the initial trade estimate, there may not be any increase in the sowing

area of jeera because of dry weather. However, if the producing states

receive good irrigation facilities through dams then the sowing area could

see an increase. According to the market estimates, India has already

exported around 1.25 lakh tonnes of jeera so far this year and there is a

possibility of it touching a record 1.75 lakh tonnes by the end of this fiscal

year. As per Gujarat state govt. data, Jeera progressive area of Rabi 2018-

19, 18,400 hectares as compared to previous Rabi season 59,400

hectares, 6% completed from normal area 318,900 hectares. Current

year sowing reported slow due to lower rainfall. As per current situation,

farmers are likely to prefer Jeera over Coriander due to higher prices. In

Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -44.75 Rupees

to end at 19833.35 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting

support at 19250 and below same could see a test of 19125 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 19490, a move above could see



19290

SUPPORT 3

19840 19625 19500 19160 18945 18820

19410 19070 19375 -0.03 3903


Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6458-6458.

Meanwhile, jeera arrivals in Unjha mandi, Gujarat were 4,061 bags, compared to 3,102 bags.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 24 tonnes to 2194 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 19608 rupee per 100 kg.


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NCDEX Turmeric Dec 2018

Turmeric prices gained on short covering after prices dropped on higher supply amid weak demand in the physical market.

Turmeric on NCDEX settled up by 0.09% at 6412 on short covering after

prices dropped on higher supply amid weak demand in the physical

market. This year turmeric output is expected to rise following higher

acreage which is also weighing on prices. According to the Department of

Horticulture and Plantation Crops of Tamil Nadu, acreage of turmeric in

Erode may jump nearly 80% on year to 5,300 hectares in 2018-19 (Jul-

Jun) because of very good rainfall this year and availability of other water

sources. In Telangana, turmeric acreage rose to 47,790 hectare

compared to 44,956 hectares a year ago, state government data showed.

In Andhra Pradesh, farmers planted turmeric over area 18,000 hectares,

up from 14,000 hectares a year ago. Turmeric exports in 2018-19 (Apr-

Sep) is up by 10.6% at 65,547 ton compared to 59,285-ton last year for

the same time. As per reports, standing crop likely to damage around 10 -

20% currently, if higher temperature will continue next 15 - 20 day’s

damage percentage may go up to 30-40%. Moreover, turmeric sowing in

all major producing states is higher than last year as weather remained

favourable. During the October, arrivals of turmeric have been higher at

12,478 t (Vs 10,978 t) compared last year, as per data. In Nizamabad, a

major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7064.3 Rupees dropped -

35.7 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has

witnessed drop in open interest by -2.93% to settled at 10285 while

prices up 6 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6362 and below

same could see a test of 6310 level, And resistance is now likely to be

seen at 6464, a move above could see prices testing 6514.


6362

SUPPORT 3

6566 6514 6464 6362 6310 6260

6462 6360 6412 0.09 10285


Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 6310-6514.

This year turmeric output is expected to rise following higher acreage which is also weighing on prices.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks dropped by 95 tonnes to 3329 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7064.3 Rupees dropped -35.7 Rupees.


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MCX Menthaoil Dec 2018

Mentha oil prices ended with losses due to surge in arrivals and tepid demand from domestic market weighed on prices.

Mentha oil on MCX settled up by 0.54% at 1698.2 due to bullish demand

outlook from domestic market as well as exporters. Spot markets are also

witnessing strong consumption demand amid restricted supplies. Bumper

crop harvest has been discounted in the market and market is moving

upwards on rising demand from end users. Arrivals in Sambhal stood at

400 drums compared to 350 drum a day ago while in Barabanki supplies

rose to 500 drums from 450 drums a day earlier. According to preliminary

estimates, mentha oil production in 2018-19 would be 40,000-45,000 ton

against last year's production of 35,000 tons. There could be chances of

crop damage to certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition.

Besides, farmers are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices

are not remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in

production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the

demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around

80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production

stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between

30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in

India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. Mentha oil

spot at Sambhal closed at 1853.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by

Rs.14.30/-.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has

witnessed gain in open interest by 9.05% to settled at 1012 while prices

up 9.1 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at 1679.5 and below

same could see a test of 1660.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be

seen at 1709.2, a move above could see prices testing 1720.3.


1692.00

SUPPORT 3

1738.9 1720.3 1709.2 1679.5 1660.9 1649.8

1701.70 1672.00 1698.20 0.54 1012


Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1660.9-1720.3.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1853.50 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.14.30/-.

Arrivals of mentha oil in Sambhal market doubled to 100 drums (1 drum = 180 kg).

The supply of mentha oil in Chandausi, Uttar Pradesh's major producing area of mentha oil, has increased.


TIME ZONE Forecast

CommodityLME STOCK Stock

COPPER 750 137850

ALUMINIUM -3275 1061700

NICKEL -210 213774

LEAD -1250 106425

ZINC -325 121275

4696 21530 19375 4312 6412 4063 500.2 3366

DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL

COMMODITIESNCDEX CHANA Dec

2018

NCDEX Cotton Nov

2018

NCDEX Jeera Dec

2018

NCDEX Guarseed10

Dec 2018

NCDEX Turmeric

Dec 2018

NCDEX Rmseed Dec

2018MCX CPO Nov 2018

NCDEX Soyabean

Dec 2018

NCDEX

Ref.Soya oil

Dec 2018

721.4CLOSE

P. POINT 4677 21570 19285 4302 6412 4056

4729 21680 19500 4349 6464 4087

RESISTANCE

4814 21940 19840 4432 6566 4142

498.9 3360 719

732

4762 21830 19625 4385 6514 4111 506.4 3390 727

510.8 3408

503.3 3378 724

4219 6310 4001 491.4 3330 711

4644 21420 19160 4266 6362 4032 495.8 3348

708

Cng in OI -6.17 -60.29 -7.20 -8.30 -2.93 -6.49 -24.04 -2.81 -5.80

SUPPORT

4559 21160 18820 4183 6260 3977 488.3 3318

716

4592 21310 18945

Short Covering

LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA

DATA Previous

2:30pm EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 0.035 0.035

TREND Short Covering Long Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Covering Short Covering Short Covering Short Covering Short Covering

2:30pm EUR Private Loans y/y 0.032 0.031

5:30pm EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 10.5 10.6

7:00pm USD Prelim GDP q/q 0.036 0.035

7:00pm USD Goods Trade Balance -76.7B -76.0B

7:00pm USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 0.017 0.017

7:00pm USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.005 0.004

8:30pm USD New Home Sales 583K 553K

8:30pm USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 16 15

9:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.6M 4.9M


750

-3275

-210

-1250

-325

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC

LME STOCK

NEWS YOU CAN USE

The European Union’s executive approved Greece’s first post-bailout budget, but said the country had to speed up reforms if it hoped to qualify for any future

disbursements under debt relief measures. The European Commission said it had adopted its first report for Greece under an enhanced surveillance framework put in

place after the concusion of its bailout programme in August. But it said activation of some debt relief measures, agreed by euro zone finance ministers in June, would

depend on how well Greece performed in the future when it was re-assessed. Reuters quoted sources on Tuesday as saying the country might miss a tranche of profit

returns on Greek bond holdings due to delays in the pace of privatisations. However a Greek government official suggested that was premature, stating an overall

assessment would be made by Dec. 31. About 4.8 billion euros ($5.48 billion) of profits from Greek bonds held by the European Central Bank and other eurozone central

banks are supposed to be channelled back to Athens by June, 2022, in semi-annual tranches, as agreed with lenders under its post-bailout agreement.

Britain ran up a much larger budget deficit than expected in October, leaving finance minister Philip Hammond at risk of missing a borrowing target announced last month

when he promised voters an easing of austerity. The deficit in October rose to 8.820 billion pounds ($11.3 billion) from 7.235 billion pounds a year earlier, official data

showed, marking the biggest October shortfall for three years. While tax receipts continued to grow, government spending increased compared with a year ago, the Office

for National Statistics said, citing notable growth in expenditure on goods and services, as well as social benefits. “This increase in the deficit eats into the projected room

that (Hammond) saved in case of a damaging Brexit outcome.” Prime Minister Theresa May last week agreed a draft withdrawal deal with Brussels. But it faces stiff

resistance in her Conservative Party, meaning it could fail in parliament. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said leaving the European Union with no transition could

be akin to the 1970s oil shock for Britain’s economy. The ONS said borrowing for the first seven months of the 2018/19 financial year now stands at 26.7 billion pounds.

The International Sugar Organization has significantly scaled down its estimate for global surplus during 2018-19 (Oct-Sep) to 2.17 mln tn from 6.75 pegged in August.

The global body has also lowered its estimate for last year’s surplus to 7.280 mln tn from 8.597 projected earlier. Further, the global sugar market may return to a deficit

during 2019-20, the organisation said in its quarterly outlook released Thursday. “…a modest deficit of about 2 mln tn looms on the horizon, heralding the end of the

surplus phase in the world sugar cycle.” “The projected global surplus (for 2018-19) is not that high and a combination of unforeseen production decreases in several

pivotal players would likely lead to an earlier arrival of a deficit phase,” it said. The outlook for international prices of the sweetener, as a result, seems “less pessimistic”

now than in August, the organisation said. “An argument could be made that most of the bearish news are now priced in and prices have hit bottom.” The International

Sugar Organization has forecast global production for 2018-19 at 180.488 mln tn, lower than 182.703 mln tn a year ago. In August, however, the body had projected

world sugar production to rise to 185.215 mln tn. The downward revision in the output comes on the back of a downgrade in projections of production in Brazil, India,

European Union and Pakistan, the organisation said. The global body has lowered its forecast for sugar production in Brazil during 2018-19 by 2.200 mln tn to 31.800 mln

tn.



The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is

made as to its accuracy completeness or correctness.

This document is for information purposes only. This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and one should exercise due caution while acting on it. Descriptions of any commodities mentioned herein are not

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notice.

This report is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability

or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject to Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited (SCSPL) or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such

country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S.Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or

Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. Any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure of this report including, but not limited to, redistribution by electronic mail, posting of the report on a website or page, and/or providing to a third party

a link, is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. The information contained in the Report is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient to any third party.

SCSPL generally prohibits its analyst(s), persons reporting to analyst(s), and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the commodities or commodity derivatives that the analyst(s) cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may

provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations

expressed herein. The views expressed in this research report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in

this report. The compensation of the analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by SCSPL however, compensation may relate to the revenues of the Systematix Group as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading are a part. Research analyst(s) and

sales persons of SCSPL may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies).

Foreign currency denominated commodities, wherever mentioned are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively

assume currency risk.

SCSPL, its directors, analyst(s) or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report including but not restricted to changes in the currency rates, reduction in

the income, etc.

SCSPL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities/commodities derivatives thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such

commodities/commodity derivatives and earn brokerage or other compensation (financial interest) or act as a market maker in the financial instruments discussed herein or have other potential material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and

opinions. The views expressed are those of the analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to the views expressed therein.

SCSPL, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without

limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SCSPL, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties. The

Report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the Report refers to website material of the Company, the Company has not reviewed the linked site. Accessing such website or following such link through the report or the website of

the Company shall be at your own risk and the Company shall have no liability arising out of, or in connection with, any such referenced website

SCSPL shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any technical glitch to present the data. In no event shall the SCSPL be liable for any damages, including without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or

consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by SCSPL through this presentation.

Neither SCSPL, nor any of its other group companies or associates, shall be responsible for any decisions taken on the basis of this report. Investors are advised to consult their Investment and Tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report.

Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited.:

Registered and Corporate address: The Capital, A-wing, No. 603 – 606, 6th Floor, Plot No. C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051

CIN - U01119MH1994PTC266348 | MCX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 | NCDEX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 Member Code: MCX: 29790 | NCDEX: 534

Daily Commodity Roundup as onreport.systematixshares.com/Commodity/SYSTEMATIXDAILY... · 2018. 11....

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