2017 update: Top 8 global megatrends

MEGATRENDS

By Anders Lindgren

Discover the tidal waves of changeshaping our present and future lives

TOP 8 GLOBAL

The trends that break all other trendsMEGATRENDS are strong global forces affecting everything and all life on our planet. By viewing the world from a distance and over several centuries, there are 3 revolutionary turning points and 8 global forces of change that stand out and break all other trends. By understanding these deep founded grass root trends and the forces that have shaped the society we have today, it is also easier to predict the future. Especially if we understand how the different forces interact. Our population boom, rapid urbanization, consumption patterns, manufacturing methods and technology craze are all inextricably linked. Anders Lindgren, Futurist,

PR-veteran, Digital Pioneer and Services Marketer

In the same manner as ocean waves can amplify one another, the 8 megatrends are gaining in magnitude and influence, as they interact with one another.Together, they are producing the greatest changes the world has ever seen. Opposing forces and counter cyclical trends will surely arise. They tend to balance things out and are as natural as life itself. They too, are easier to spot when we have a good grasp of the waves of change shaping our past, present and future lives.

The world is

COMPLEX

To understand the

CHAOS

Simply observe the

CHANGE

From

AFAR

And over

100 years of ups and downs in the American stock market

Source: Robert Schiller, professor of economics at Yale University

800

1600

400

0

2000

1200

(S&P Index adjusted for inflation)

TIME

You’ll discover the mighty megatrends

HIDDEN behind all the turmoil and change…

The megatrends impact all life and

They are macroeconomic forces,spanning hundreds of years and backed by verifiable data

EVERYONE

They are undeniable in their magnitude

Population boom

Global connectedness

Wealthinequality

Technologyrush

Rapidurbanization

Ferocious consumption

Digitaltransformation

Environmentaldegradation

8 mighty MEGATRENDS stand out

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

1

2

3

Three revolutionary TURNING POINTS

The Agricultural Revolution (16th and 17th Century)

The Industrial Revolution (18th Century)

The Digital Revolution (20th and 21st Century)

stand out

Let’s go way, way BACK IN TIME

Once UPON A TIME...

Life wasSIMPLE...

Humans HUNTED...

GATHEREDfood…

FOUGHT disasters and diseases

12,000 YEARSLife continued like that for

8000 BC

AD 1

6000 BC

4000 BC2000 BC

1700

10 000 BC

1

Then in the 17th centurywe reached a

According to anthropologist it is the most significant change in our way of thinking and living

TURNING POINT

Two behavioral shifts ignitedA MONUMENTAL CHANGE

We understood the vitalimportance of personalHYGIENE

It vastly improved our living conditions

We started farming food crops and animalsfor NUTRITION

Historians call it theDawn of Civilization

The AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION started

Life on EarthEXPLODED!

In both good ways and bad ways

Population boom


Wealthinequality

Technologyrush

Rapidurbanization




Let’s look at the 1st MEGATREND

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

POPULATION

1

boom

Key challenge

The boom will be our doom if we don't change our ways, predict experts.

300 millions

We have grown from 1 billion people to

8000 BC

AD 1

6000 BC

4000 BC2000 BC

1700

1800

The Agricultural revolution

1 billion

5 millions

in just 200 years!

2000

7billions

YEAR 2016

9billions

YEAR 20507 BILLION

The strongest growthwill be seen in AFRICA

It’s population will double by 2050

while Europe’s is expected to shrink.

The boom has TRIGGERED

explosive growth in all areas

SocialTechnical

Creative

2

Shortly after the population boom started in 18th century

A 2nd revolution happened

The steam enginegave it power

The industrial revolution came with full speed

1950 20001850 19001800YEAR

2

It fuelled rapid economic progress

Growth in world Domestic Product

Source: Angus Maddison

30

25

20

15

10

5

TRIL

LIO

N D

OLL

ARS

0

1950 20001850 19001800YEAR

2

became more efficient

MANUFACTURING

FACTORIES shoot up like mushrooms

Masses of WORKERScame searching for jobs

It led to rapid growth of URBAN AREAS

Population boom


Wealthinequality

Technologyrush

Rapidurbanization




That brings us to the 2nd MEGATREND

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

URBANIZATIONRapid

2

Key challenge

How will we live: In cities of dreams or urban nightmares?

In 1800, only 3% of the world’s population lived in cities.

Today it’s

By 2030,two-thirds of the world’s population WILL RESIDE IN CITIES

Source: United Nations Population Division

Apparently, we are compelled

to crowd togetherin big cities

Explosive growth of

MEGACITIES

1970 Today 2030

30 today and counting: The number of megacities with > 10 million people is expected to grow to over 40 by 2030.

Every year, 70 million people join the URBAN POPULATION

Through a combination of migration and childbirth

CLIMATE CHANGES and wars also forcepeople to move

Every year millions of refugees migrate to urban areas in search of a better life

SOURCE: Synthesis Report, Climate Change, Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

No wonder, we seesuch rapid growth of URBAN AREAS

Our cities are more

DENSELY

Inevitably, this is putting cities’ social fabric and infrastructure under pressure

populated than ever

The cities are struggling

TO KEEP UP

With growing need for houses, transport, food, water, sanitation, care and education

1 BILLION

The number is expected to rise, despite great efforts to counteract the problem

people live in urban slums

Source: UN-Habitat

Air pollution is nowthe deadliest form

and the fourth leading risk factor for premature deaths worldwide

SOURCE: The Cost of Air Pollution 2016, the World Bank

OF POLLUTION…

Managing urban areas has become one of the most important development challenges of the 21st century.”

– JOHN WILMOTH, Director of UN DESA’s Population Division

trying to keep our cities livable for everyone

We face TOUGH CHOICES…

Quai Branly Museum. Photo courtesyhttp://www.verticalgardenpatrickblanc.com/

At the same timeopportunities for SMART solutions abound

Obviously, there is stillplenty of space inRURAL AREAS

Only 3% of Earth’s landmass is urbanized

SOURCE: GRUMP

Many urban people long back to the

In everything from interior to personal development and housing we can see groups of people seeking back to their natural heritage and RURAL LIFE

SOURCE: Jean Viardand Bertrand Hervieu

COUNTRYSIDE

SMARTER TRANSPORTand new digital advances

makes rural development more feasible than ever

Population boom


Wealthinequality

Technologyrush

Rapidurbanization




Now, let’s look at the 3rd MEGATREND

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

CONSUMPTIONFerocious

3

Key challenge

Our getting and spending culture seems to consumethe time to nourish our bonds with family and nature.

World production of goods and serviceshas grown 240-fold

1500

$ 250BILLIONS* 2016

$ 60,000BILLIONS

* In today’s dollars, World economy (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced. Source: Angus Maddison and the World Bank

For the privilegedindustrialized countries THE WORLD IS AWASH in material goods

…have ABUNDANT

choices… live longer

… travelgreater

distances

… lovetechnology

WE … playmore

… eat more

The median size of today’s supermarket in the USare 46,000 square feet (6 x FOOTBALL FIELDS)

Source: Food Marketing Institute

choice of groceries

ABUNDANT

Average number of items in a US supermarket has grown from 15,000 in 1980 to 50,000 in 2014

Source: Food Marketing Institute

ABUNDANTchoice of groceries

The size of a typical grocery store in the 1920’swas probably around 1,000 square feet

Shopping hasRADICALLYchanged

1908 2016

ABUNDANTchoice of cars

Average number of channels per US home

1960

6

2014

189

ABUNDANTchoice of TV channels

Source: Nielsen

We have become the greatest consumers

in the history of life on earth

IN SHORT:

People in EMERGING

Also want a richer material life and are swiftly adopting the western consumer culture

like Brazil, China and India and Russia…

economies

India and Chinawill be the new

In 2020 the size of the middle class in Asia Pacific is expected to overtake Europe and America combined

Source: World Bank

BIG SPENDERS

There is a

PARADOXthat puzzles experts

The race for richesdoesn’t seem to MAKE US HAPPIER

The overwhelming abundance of

Often causes choice overload

CHOICE

The gettingand spending

Seem to eat away the time to nourish family ties

CULTURE

A good feeling in the body

and peace of mind!

People are made happy by one thing and one thing only

SOME CLAIM:

The debategoes on…

One thing is for

SURE:

Consumerism drives business growth

Population boom


Wealthinequality

Technologyrush

Rapidurbanization




That leads us to the 4th MEGATREND

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

TECHNOLOGYrush

4

Key challenge

We can do incredible things with technology –does that mean we always should?

Time to reach 150 million users, years

Phone TV Cell phone

iPod Facebook Internet Google Earth

89

38

147 5 4 2

Source: The Magazine Imaging Notes. See also Ray Kurzweil's book The Singularity is Near and The Economist

Adoption of new technologies is

ACCELERATING

Number of patent filings in leading economies

800,000

600,000

400,000

0

200,000

Patents has grown to DIZZYING HEIGHTS

Source: WIPO,

China

USA

Japan

EU

There’s been a rush of new

TECHNOLOGIES

AGRI-technology

ROBOTICS-technology

ENERGY-technology

BIO-technology

NANO-technology

COMMUNICATION-technology

Two innovations has

We invented the TRANSISTOR to help us use and send electronic signals

It vastly improved our communication

We invented WRITING and the PRINTING PRESS

than anything elseMEANT MORE

Writing and printing has allowed us toCONQUER THE WORLD

It's pure magic how we have used the written language to teach each other things, invent things and create great wonders.

Writing is possible the most important single invention of the last few thousand years.”

– JARED M. DIAMOND, professor, University of California, author of the Pulitzer book Guns, Germs, and Steel.

The transistor and INTEGRATED CIRCUIT

The rate of progressdefies the

The first transistor invented in 1947 could be held in your hand

Today the worlds tiniest transistor is the size of a single molecule

IMAGINATION

Something else is

TRANSFORMINGour society…

Our explorationof the DIGITAL UNIVERSE

Population boom


Wealthinequality

Technologyrush

Rapidurbanization




That brings us to the 5th MEGATREND

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

DIGITALtransformation

5

Key challenge

Will the digital world make our lives more simple and convenient or more complicated and confusing?

Welcome to the digital INFORMATION AGE

It all started in the 70’s with a revolutionary turning point

THE DIGITAL REVOLUION

All of a sudden, almost every aspect of life around the world is being recorded and stored in some digital information format. That's a real change in our human ecology.”

– PETER LYMAN, (1940 – 2007)professor emeritus at UC Berkeley

Size of circles indicate actual and expected amount of digitally stored information in the world.

DID YOU KNOW?We live in an exploding digital universe. By the start of 2013, there were almost as many bits of data in our digital universe as there are known stars in the physical universe (4.4 zb). By 2020, the amount is expected to be 10x.

Source: The EMC Digital Universe study

2013

2020

0,1 ZB 44 ZB4,4 ZB

2005

By one calculation, we’ve created more information in the last 10 years than in all of human history before that.”

– DANIEL LEVITIN, McGill University psychology professor, author of The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload.

All of this is more information than the brain is configured to handle.”

– DANIEL LEVITIN, McGill University psychology professor, author of The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload.

Never have people had so much INFORMATION & CONTENT

to choose from

It has radically changed how buyers READ, SHOP and PROCESS

information

in 7ways

People are ADAPTINGtheir lives

1. We have become digital animals2. We try to avoid content overload3. We want things to be easy4. Everything should happen quickly5. We seek help and guidance6. We want to be seen and heard7. We trust word of mouth

There are only

They read, buy and shop differently -so learn about theirdifferences.

4 types of peoplesay experts

A stimulus sparks an interest that

meets a need.

People ask aroundand go online to find out more.

People reevaluatethe purchase and share their experiences.

People decide to buy, join, sign up etc.

People try demos and seek proof points to compare solutions.

People use the product or

service.

Do what you can to understandevery step of theCUSTOMERJOURNEY

The better you do it, the easier it will be to do and say the right things in your communicationcustomer handling

This human qualitywill be a key to

empathynoun | em·pa·thy | \ˈem-pə-thē\

The ability to identify with the situation and emotions of other people. The capacity to understand what other beings are experiencing as ifwe were feeling it ourselves.

SUCCESS

The advances in digital communications

ONLINE USAGE HAS SOAREDis directly linked to the fact that

LOG OFF

It’s about turning off, shutting down and logging out from the digital world

mini-boom

Be alert to the IT’S CALLED DIGITAL DETOX! On the new digital free resorts, people are forced to ditch their smart devices as they check in

Businesses have greatOPPORTUNITIES

To streamline their business and delivery model

The smart ones utilizedigital technologies

To create a seamless buying process fit for our digital age

DON’T BE FOOLED!

There are many dangers lurking in the shadows of the digital jungle

Today’s world is more interconnected than ever before. Yet, for all its advantages, increased connectivity brings increased risk of theft, fraud, and abuse. As people become more reliant on modern technology, we also become more vulnerable to cyberattacks.”

– U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY

Population boom


Wealthinequality

Technologyrush

Rapidurbanization




That leads us to the 6th MEGATREND

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

GLOBALconnectedness

6

Key challenge

Human survival have always depended on our ability to work together as a team.Now, we are being forced to manage it on a global scale.

Global trade hasEXPLODED

Source: Manfred Steger, Globalization: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford 2013

2010

$ 15,000BILLIONS

1947

$ 57BILLIONS*

There’s been a surge in internationalCAPITAL FLOWS

Nothing flowsmore freely thanINFORMATION

we can connect like never before

With theWORLD WIDE WEBas platform…

Map reveals every connected device

in the worldSource: John Matherly

Through internetwe have instantworld wide reach

In just 4 years time, between 20 and 30 billion things will be connected to the internet. In 1992 it was 1 million

Source: Gartner, McKinsey

of the world’s population is connected to internet today. In 1995 it was 1%.

Source: Internet Live Stats

40%

25 billion

ENGLISH has becomea truly global language

Source: Neil Reynolds, Spread the word

2016

2000MILLIONS

Growth in English speakers and learners globally

1582

4MILLIONS

When trade and information flows..

CULTURE FLOWS

Labor also findmore ways to crossBORDERS

It means that things

SPREADfaster than ever

The good

STUFF

Democratization (voting right is key)

The good

STUFF

Rise of democratizationNumber of nations scoring 8 or more on Polity IV scale, a measure of democracy

Source: The Polity IV project

20

100

80

60

40

But also the really

BAD STUFF

The market is more

VOLATILE

The ups and downs in American stock market

Source: Robert Schller, professor of economics at Yale University

800

1600

400

0

2000

1200

(S&P Index adjusted for inflation)

People are more

VULNERABLE

The networked world isn't just a little bigger, a little faster, and a little more complex. It is qualitatively different.”

– JAMES CLEICK, author, reporter, and essayist

Everyone & everything is inextricably

LINKED

We are especiallylinked to thisBLUE BALL

Population boom


Wealthinequality

Technologyrush

Rapidurbanization




That brings us to the 7th megatrend

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

ENVIRONMENTALdegradation

7

Key challenge

Did you know? We are eating away our own natural life support systems.

As a species,we have much to bePROUD OF

… builtwonders

of the world

… landedon the moon

We have

… almost put a stop

to wars

… close toeliminated

child mortality

… tamedwild beasts

Climbing and clawing our way to be the top rung of the food chain

We have wonthe evolutionaryARMS RACE

In fact, we have

OVERRUNWe have cut down forest,drained swamps, dammed rivers, flooded plains, laid railroads and built skyscrapingmegacities

the planet

Our colonization of the planet has been a disaster for plants and wildlife

The bad news is that weDESTROY NATUREin the process

Historical records makes Homo sapiens look like an ecological serial killer.”

– YUVAL NOAH HARARI,professor of history, Hebrew University of Jerusalem and author of the international bestseller Sapiens, A Brief History of Humankind.

All the expertsgive us the sameMESSAGE

United Nations (IPCC), World Resources Institute,NASA, IUCN and WWF

The scale of damageto the natural ecosystemsthat are vital to our livesIS ALARMING

Up to 25% of the world’s food production may become lost due to environmental breakdown by 2050 unless action is taken.”

– UNEP, (United Nations Environment Programme)

More than 80% of the natural forests that once covered the Earth, have been destroyed.”

– World Resource Institute,Global Forests Resources Assessment 2015

Over the past few hundred years, humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history.”

– World Resource Institute,Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Population sizes of vertebrate species -mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish - have declined by 52 % the last 40 years.”

– World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Living Planet Report 2014

Our planet has lost more than half of its creatures since 1970

IN SHORT:

and the terror ofthe ecosystem

THE MASTER OF THE PLANET

We have become

It’s time to remember a factthat’s so obvious IT’S EASY TO FORGET

THE FOODyou eat

THE WATERyou drink

THE AIRyou breathe

THE FUELyou use

THE TIMBERin your house

THE FIBERSin your clothes

Are all products of this living

ECOSYSTEM

So, let’s stopdestroyingNATURE

Earth’s natural resources are the very foundation of our lives

Population boom


Wealthinequality

Technologyrush

Rapidurbanization




That brings us to the 8th megatrend

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

inequality

8

Key challenge

Do we really want a society where a few have a lot and many have little?

The good news:Total global wealth just

US and Europa are the main drivers, but also emerging markets like Asia Pacific and China

HIT A NEW RECORD

New York City is ranked as the second richest city in the world after Tokyo

In China and India, millions have risen out of poverty to join the working MIDDLE CLASS

The bad news:The rich and poor gap

is not only chronic,IT KEEPS WIDENING

The top 1% wealthiest people now own 50% of all household wealth in the world

THE RICHEST of the rich are

getting richer

SOURCE: Credit Suisse and Oxfam

2 billion people live on less than $3 a day

SOURCE: World Bank

TOO LITTLE

Still, far too manyare living with far

71% of the world’spopulation remain

Living on $10 or less per day

SOURCE: Pew Research Centre

LOW INCOME OR POOR

The problemwith these kind of

They are just numbers and hardly touch us

STATISTICS1%

Hopefullythis touchesYOUR HEART

And motives you to care and act

Extreme unequalsocieties break with theDEMOCRATIC IDEAL

They are neither stable nor sustainable in the long run

Abraham Lincoln’s legendary definition of democracy: “Democracy is the government of the people, by the people, for the people.”

The world’s leading economists ties it alltogether for us

Growing income inequality is the biggest risk the world may face within the next 10 years. It has already squeezed the middle class in both developed and emerging economies.”

– World Economic Forum,The Global Risks Report 2014

The top 1 per cent have the best houses,the best educations, the best doctors, andthe best lifestyles, but there is one thing that money doesn't seem to have bought: and understanding that their fate is bound up with how the other 99 per cent live. Throughout history, this is something that the top 1 per cent eventually do learn. Too late.”

– Joseph E. Stiglitz,winner of the nobel price in economics

How can we make it bright for all?THE FUTURE?What about

The transformation starts in our mindTo transform our future, we must understand and learn from the past. Looking back on the 12,000 year history of humankind, there has really been minor changes in our way of thinking that has ignited monumental changes.We understood the importance of having a language, cultivating food crops, keeping clean, utilizing technology and working together.These five small changes in our mindset started the greatest revolutions the world has ever seen. Perhaps another small change in our way of thinking will be enough to make life on earth better for everyone including animals and plants.It might be, that the discoveries made by modern physicists hold the key to the greatest transformation of all time.

“The universe, including us, is made up of energy, not matter, and we are all connected”, the scientist say. What if they are right? Perhaps we only need to change our worldview, to discover that the essential character of life, is so much more than our physical bodies and the material world we see around us?Maybe we simply need to open our hearts and minds, to tune into the invisible and universal energy that connects us all?It could be, that when we start to get a sense of this underlying energy, we will naturally begin to honor ourselves and all other humans and life forms with the dignity they deserve. All the best wishes for a bright future.Regards,

Recommended books

About the authorHey, my name is Anders Lindgren. People who know me well, will label me as a content marketing specialist, digital pioneer, PR-veteran and futurist.I have two decades of experience as a marketing and communication director for some of the most renowned brands in the world, primarily PwC, AT&T and SopraSteria. Today, I work as partner for PLOT, a market strategy consulting firm, based in Oslo, Norway.Throughout my career I have been passionate about understanding the world around us, sharing insights and helping people and brands communicate in a way that makes them shine.

© 2016 Anders Lindgren.

The information in this guide is copyrighted. Sharing and copying is permitted only if the information remains unchanged and licensee "Anders Lindgren" is referred to as the source.

The information can not be published in print in any media without the prior consent of the copyright holder.

Text , design and illustrations : Anders Lindgren

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2017 update: Top 8 global megatrends

Environment

Transcript of 2017 update: Top 8 global megatrends