Uncovering Tomorrow’s World-Changing Technologies Today

The industry insider’s road map to small- and micro-cap tech stocks on

the verge of breakthrough profits

E X P O N E N T I A L T E C H I N V E S T O R

Over the next 10 years, advances in technology will bring such fundamental changes to our lives, they’ll dwarf all the progress we’ve seen since the great tech revolution that began in the late 1990s.

Everything will change. The ways in which we work, shop, sleep, eat, travel, bank, communicate, entertain ourselves, conduct warfare, manufacture, design, distribute, create, transact, and maintain our own health will all be different.

Although we’ve seen radical changes in technology during the last two decades – streaming video, cellphones, the Internet, miniaturization, etc. – these improvements are only incremental.

In fact, they are just the foundation for technology-based changes that will be exponential.

We’re on the cusp of a new revolution. And those who act now will be the first to realize the extraordinary wealth these changes will bring.

Exponential InnovationThe problem with identifying an

exponential change is that its early stages look the same as an ordinary linear change.

As shown in the graphic in Figure 1, exponential changes grow quite slowly in their early stages. But when they reach a certain tipping point – the sharp “elbow” you see in the graph – they take off like a rocket.

As an investor, you want to be in position just before the elbow.

Think about a company like Apple. It enjoyed explosive growth

– and explosive returns on its share price – during the early years of the computer revolution. After that the

company – and its stock – held steady for quite a while.

But then with the introduction of

Welcome to Exponential Tech Investor

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the iPhone in 2007, Apple’s stock price began its meteoric rise. Take a look at the chart above to see the exponential growth.

Today, I believe we’re entering a new, faster stage of innovation across the tech landscape. Progress is accelerating.

How do I know this?My name is Jeff Brown, and I have

been a high-technology executive for the last 25 years. I’ve built early-stage start-ups. I’ve run organizations generating hundreds of millions of dollars in annual revenues. And I have a wide range of technology industry experience. From semiconductors to mobility, to broadcasting and video technology, to technology infrastructure, to IT networking, to IT security, to automotive and even consumer electronics... I’ve done it all.

While I was born, educated, and started my career in America, I have spent the last two decades living and working in international markets. That gives me a unique global perspective on business and investing and in analysis. And as an active angel investor in early-stage technology companies, I have access to information the public never sees.

Bigger, Faster Returns – and This Is Just the Start

Over the last few decades, it took on average about 20 years for the typical Fortune 500 company to reach a market capitalization of $1 billion.

In 1998, Google was able to reach $1 billion in market cap in only eight years, which was considered fast at the time. By 2004, Facebook had done it in five years. By 2009, Uber had done it in less than three years. In 2012, virtual-reality firm Oculus Rift did it in just over a year. And as recently as 2014, a workplace

productivity company called Slack pulled it off in eight months.

As you can see in the chart above, this trend is speeding up. And investors are reaping the benefits.

Facebook shareholders who bought at the IPO are now enjoying returns of over 400% on their investment. And they’re the laggards. Tesla shareholders who bought at the IPO are up more than 1,300%. Google shareholders who took a position when the company first went public… around 1400%.

My Two Winning Strategies

In business, it is critical to track a well-defined pipeline of potential opportunities. This is essential for resourcing, product development, forecasting, and strategy decisions.

Investing is no different. In order to be prepared for profitable opportunities, it is critical to understand where those sharp “elbows” will be.

This is something I’ve always focused on as an investor – and it’s

given me great success. I break it down into two winning

strategies.

Early Trend SpottingOne of the best ways to be a

successful investor is to identify trends before they become mainstream. This is especially true in the rapidly changing tech sector.

Through regular contact with my peers and associates across the tech landscape, I am able to get firsthand answers to the most important questions…

What kinds of research and development are tech companies spending money on?

What are the current pain points for end customers?

What technologies are gaining momentum?

This helps me target emerging trends before the typical investor does.

The other area that I follow closely is the venture capital (VC) community. This helps me understand what

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sectors of technology are getting support – in the form of VC money – to create the next generation of disruptive technology. In this context, “disruptive” is a good thing. It refers to the type of game-changing innovations that forever alter an industry.

And these are the kinds of companies I identify through early trend spotting.

A few years ago, I really started to pay attention to the emergence of what is now called “fintech.” This is short for financial technology, and some of the developments here are truly disruptive.

One area of fintech that I am really excited about is crowd-funding. Perhaps you have heard of Kickstarter. Using Kickstarter and others like it, early-stage companies can now kick-start their business by raising money before ever producing an actual product. In essence, customers prepay for a product, giving the company money to finance bringing the product to market.

Kickstarter began in 2009, and the concept took off. By 2016, the broad-based crowd-funding industry was larger than the traditional venture capital industry.

I have personally invested in several private companies in this space whose valuations have already more than doubled.

As the new fintech ecosystem begins to gain momentum, there will be many other ways to invest in this trend.

Sector Cycle InvestingUnderstanding sector cycles

is another excellent strategy for technology investing. It helps us know when there is a strong, broad trend that is lifting a certain sector. During

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More than 40 years ago, Intel founder Gordon Moore observed that computer processing speeds doubled about every two years. This also held true – give or take – for many other improvements in the tech space (see chart below), so “Moore’s Law” became the standard rate of innovation in the tech space.

As you can see in the next chart, cost improved at an even faster rate. Since 1975, the cost of microprocessors (aka the things that make computers work faster) dropped in half every 1.1 years.

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those times, the best equities will tend to outperform. And by knowing which companies are the strongest in that sector, we can generate outsize returns.

On the other hand, when a certain sector is trending down, we’ll consider shorting the weakest, most overvalued, most heavily indebted, or least competitive companies in that sector.

A simple example is the semiconductor industry. It goes through classic boom-and-bust cycles every few years. Why does this happen?

As economic activity picks up, semiconductor factories across the industry become fully utilized, requiring a lot of investment to build out new capacity. This is a very profitable period as demand exceeds supply, driving up prices and profits. This is a great time to invest in semiconductor companies.

But then once capacity catches up with – and eventually surpasses – demand, factories are no longer fully utilized. Those now-larger fixed costs eat away at profitability, requiring deep spending cuts.

Gradually, the industry scales back until supply once again falls short of demand, and the cycle starts all over again.

How and Where to Invest

In Exponential Tech Investor, we will be investing in the companies that stand to benefit the most from the revolutionary changes ahead…

We’ll be investing before the “elbow” to reap the biggest rewards.

And we’ll be following a clear road map that’ll help us get in – and out – at the right time.

Our road map will be the “Hype Cycle.”

As you can see in the graphic

above, there’s a standard pattern that new technology tends to follow.

The first part – the “innovation trigger” – is when money pours into a company. That influx of money builds the hype and can push the company’s value to the “peak of inflated expectations.”

As the hype reaches its peak, a company might get bought out by a larger firm. The ones that don’t get bought out tend to return to more reasonable valuations through the “trough of disillusionment.”

For companies that are leaders in their sector and still have high growth potential, this is a fantastic time to build our position.

We’ll find some of the very best investment gains along the “slope of enlightenment.” That’s where we’ll see high growth in annual sales, mass-market adoption, and lots of merger and acquisition activity.

This trend continues through the “plateau of productivity” as the market penetration of the technology becomes more widespread.

Since we can’t invest in private

companies, we’ll be targeting companies traded publicly on U.S. exchanges – the Nasdaq and NYSE.

We’ll be focusing primarily on small-cap stocks – those with market capitalizations between $300 million and $2 billion. Occasionally, we’ll even target micro-cap stocks – those with market capitalizations between $50 million and $300 million.

For the most part, we’ll be “going long,” or buying these stocks. But when conditions warrant, we’ll also consider “shorting” stocks that are likely to fall. That’ll allow us to profit regardless of which direction a sector – or even the entire market – is moving in.

To manage our risk exposure, we use trailing stops with all our positions. That means we’ll be setting limits on how much money we can lose on any given investment. And since the stops are “trailing,” that means we’ll also be protecting our gains as our positions increase in value.

Occasionally, we will initiate a recommendation with a hard stop in order to avoid getting prematurely getting kicked out of a position due

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to unusual market volatility. Then, when the position gains consistently positive momentum, we’ll change that hard stop to a trailing stop (typically around 25%) so that we can protect our profits as the stock moves up in price.

Another way we’ll limit risk is to use position sizing. That means we’ll customize how much we invest in each stock.

I recommend that no more than 5% of your speculative investing money goes into one individual investment. On occasion, depending on the opportunity, I may recommend taking a 10% position. But in general, 5% is a good number. This will limit the impact of any one stock on your overall speculative portfolio.

What to TargetThere’s no shortage of exponential

technologies on the market today. Here are a few examples of ones that are already changing our world.

3-D PrintingAdditive manufacturing is often

referred to as “3-D printing.” Instead of layering ink on paper to make words, 3-D printers create multiple layers of material to make objects.

These printers can vary in size from something that would fit on your desk… to something that is large enough to print a house. (A private company in China recently printed 10 homes in one day at a cost of only $5,000 per home.)

A diverse industry is developing around selling (or licensing) the designs for 3-D printable objects. Amazon recently established its own “3-D Printing Store” to capitalize on the trend.

Think of 3-D printing as the third industrial revolution – after steam

engines and mass production. Oddly enough, this revolution will

reverse many of the changes made in the last two. As steam engines and mass production gave rise to the massive factories that killed cottage industry, this technology will do the opposite.

With the advent of 3-D printing, local manufacturing will return. Individuals will be able to print products and parts in their homes, and small- and medium-size businesses will be able to manufacture products themselves.

That could spark a small-business explosion.

As of 2016, the 3-D printing industry was worth $7 billion. It’s grown at an annual rate of 35.2% for the last five years. And over the next five years, as the cost of printers drops to roughly what a laser printer costs today, it’s expected to grow another 400% to $21 billion.

Right now, we’re tracking about

a dozen companies in this area for Exponential Tech Investor.

The “Sharing” EconomyPerhaps the most well-known and

well-used example of technology in the “sharing” economy is Uber. It was established in 2009 with a $200,000 seed round followed by $1.3 million in 2010.

In August 2016, Uber raised a staggering $1 billion from private investors, which places its total valuation at around $68 billion. That’s more than two times the size of Hertz ($15 billion) and Avis ($16 billion) combined.

Is $68 billion too high? I don’t think so. Just take a look at the following chart to see how much people are spending on Uber rides.

At this pace, $68 billion is not even three times 2016 revenues. This is truly exponential growth.

And Uber isn’t the only one. There’s also…

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Lyft, RelayRides, and Getaround for rides…

Liquid for bikes… Airbnb for rooms... Instamotor for used cars… Rinse for laundry and dry

cleaning… Telemedicine for health care… Lending Club and Prosper for

loans… Fon for Wi-Fi… Poshmark and NeighborGoods

for clothes… TaskRabbit for odd jobs…

We are only at the very beginning of this investable trend. And Exponential Tech Investor will be targeting the best opportunities.

CryptocurrenciesThere is a sea change happening

right now in the world of money. There are more than 1,000

cryptocurrencies available today, but Bitcoin has about half of the market. And it’s growing. Just look at the chart above to get an idea about how much investment in Bitcoin- and blockchain-related technology companies is taking place. The blockchain is the underlying technology that is the foundation of bitcoin. Think of it as a cryptographically secure public ledger used to record transactions. It is on par with the level of investment in early internet technology companies... and we already know the billions of dollars made investing early on those companies. Bitcoin/blockchain investment from 2014-2016 exceeded early internet investment. Famous technology companies like Yahoo! and Amazon were established during that time. Can you imagine the investment opportunity in the next generation of Amazon’s that are being built today?

Those numbers speak to a dramatic difference in the two technologies. That difference is even more noteworthy when you consider that it was significantly harder and more expensive to develop and produce technology during the Internet’s early days.

The cost of starting a company and prototyping, launching, and producing a product has dropped dramatically since the mid-’90s. Today investment dollars are dramatically more productive than they used to be, so we get significantly more leverage from invested dollars than we used to.

This is important because widespread adoption of a new form of currency requires the creation of a worldwide payment system. We’ll need companies that manage, store, and secure Bitcoin wallets; companies that provide payment processing for merchants who accept Bitcoin; companies that mine Bitcoin and keep the network running; Bitcoin-based financial services

companies; Bitcoin exchanges; and other infrastructure companies.

The industry is rapidly building the infrastructure and companies necessary for Bitcoin’s widespread adoption.

Outside the world of currency, there are some very exciting developments on how to leverage Bitcoin’s block chain technology for other purposes. The block chain is simply a public record of all the transactions associated with each individual Bitcoin. But there’s nothing simple about it. Here are a few examples of how block chain technology could be applied elsewhere:

Legal title and ownership – Any kind of legal title could be registered publicly on the block chain. This would dramatically reduce the cost of a wide variety of legal transactions, particularly real estate.

Voting – The block chain could provide a platform for completely anonymous, fraud-proof voting. Results would be publicly available in almost real time. (A typical

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transaction takes six to seven minutes to be confirmed by the network.)

Product life-cycle tracking – Products could be registered in the block chain when they are manufactured and then tracked as they change hands until they are finally destroyed/decommissioned. This could be used for everything from electronics to wine.

Notary service – Two companies (CoinSpark and Proof of Existence) are already working on this.

Constant ConnectivityIt is perhaps no surprise that PC

sales have been dropping since the first iPhone was released in June 2007. 2016 global PC shipments were 260 million units. That’s down more than 100 million units compared to those shipped in 2011 (364 million units).

While the features and functionality of our smartphones and tablets continue to improve, the average person has more mobile or portable connected devices than ever. And now fitness trackers and connected watches are increasing in popularity as well.

This trend toward integrating technology with our bodies will continue to accelerate as these devices incorporate medical sensors for monitoring health conditions. This is one of the emerging trends in the area of connectivity.

A broader trend is what is often referred to as the IOT (“Internet of Things”) or IOE (“Internet of Everything”). Home automation will be a major category. Simple examples include connected thermostats, televisions, alarm systems, door locks, and refrigerators that can be controlled remotely from your

smartphone.Cisco estimates that by 2020, 50

billion devices will be connected to the Internet, up from about 15 billion in 2015. And 83% of those connected devices will be new kinds of sensors, trackers, and monitors. Only 17% will be computers, tablets, and mobile phones.

The benefits of IOT will extend well beyond the home. Other major categories will be in health and wellness for medical monitoring, offices and commercial buildings for energy efficiency, factory production optimization, vehicles for safety and maintenance, cities for traffic control and smart metering, and logistics for real-time tracking and monitoring. And that’s going to mean big business.

The McKinsey Global Institute estimates this market will be worth as much as $11 trillion by 2025. That would make it one of the most defining trends of our time.

For Exponential Tech Investor, our investment focus will be on companies that provide the hardware components and the software to enable the IOT.

Big Data and Data Analytics

As a natural offshoot of having billions of connected devices producing data, the question becomes: How do you manage all that data?

This is where big data and data analytics come in.

Traditionally called data science, this field is nearing the sharp “elbow” of the exponential curve. And that’s why venture capital money has been pouring in.

From the beginning of 2009 through mid-2013, more than $3 billion of investment capital was put into private companies focused on big data and data analytics. That gave

rise to a wide range of new companies in this sector, many of which have already been bought out by larger technology companies and several of which have had successful IPOs.

It also produced dramatic improve-ments in the technology.

Important areas of big data are:

customer analytics in the form of customer segmentation, understanding customer churn, cross-selling and upselling opportunities, and even sentiment analysis

web analytics in the form of customer conversion, tracking, performance, and reporting

social media analysis in the form of monitoring sentiment, brand monitoring, lead generation

pricing and sales analytics to optimize sales revenue and gross margins

supply chain optimization, demand forecasting, and inventory management

The numbers are what’s more impressive, though. The big data market is expected to grow from $1.95 billion in 2013 to approximately $10 billion by 2020. That’s an annual growth rate of 26%.

This will be a very exciting investment sector for the next decade, and we’ll be keeping a close eye on it.

Right now we’ve got more than a dozen big data and data analytics companies on our Exponential Tech Investor radar.

Robotics and Artificial Intelligence

Advanced robots and artificial intelligence (AI) may be controversial, but they are already having tangible effects on society.

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A recent study showed that between 1996 and 2012 approximately 33% of U.S. manufacturing jobs were lost to factory robots. And the trend is accelerating. In 2014, sales of industrial robots topped 225,000 units, a 27% increase over the previous year. And between 2014 and 2017, sales of professional-use robots are estimated at approximately $19 billion.

But robots are making their way into the home, too. One study estimates that 31 million personal-use robots, representing total sales of approximately $11 billion, will be sold between 2014 and 2017. These robots run the gamut from vacuum cleaning, to lawn mowing, to window washing, to toy and hobby, to entertainment and leisure.

The most exciting developments in robotics and artificial intelligence are happening behind the scenes at Google. In December of 2013 and January of 2014, Google bought seven robotics companies and one artificial intelligence company:

Shaft (Japan) – humanoid robotics Industrial Perception (U.S.) –

industrial robots Redwood Robotics (U.S.) – robotic

arms Meka Robotics (U.S.) – hands,

grippers, arms, and manipulators Holomni (U.S.) – robotic wheels Bot and Dolly (U.S.) – robotics for

high-precision movement control and automation

Boston Dynamics (U.S.) – robotics for defense

DeepMind Technologies (U.S.) – deep learning

In March 2016, AI hit a major milestone. Google’s DeepMind

Technologies developed an AI for the game of Go called “AlphaGo.” The AI crushed the world’s best human player in Go, a feat that AI experts did not think would happen for at least another 10 years.

What makes the feat so unique is that there are exponentially more moves compared to chess. There isn’t enough computing power to calculate every possible move in Go. The AI had to excel in pattern recognition in order to beat the world’s best player. It had to “think” with an imperfect data set to win.

2016 was an extraordinary year for AI and machine learning. 2017 is shaping up to be be even better as AI and machine learning permeate so many aspects of our daily lives... digital assistants, home automation, AI customer service representatives, fraud detection, self-driving vehicles, and more.

CybersecurityWhen I think of a market that is

constantly changing, constantly evolving, and constantly under attack, I think about cybersecurity. It is precisely because the problem of cybersecurity is so complex and dynamic without any single solution that many fortunes have been made and will continue to be made in this market.

And that makes it a perfect sector to target for Exponential Tech Investor.

In 2014, there were approximately 42.8 million detected cyberattacks. That’s a 48% increase over 2013. And those are just the known attacks.

With all those attacks, the annual cost of cybercrime in 2014 was estimated at between $375 billion and $575 billion. Total costs of cybercrime is expected to hit $3

trillion by 2020. And that means cybercrime is big business.

But because the industry moves so fast, most large cybersecurity firms struggle to keep up. As a result, the cybersecurity industry is a very healthy industry for small-cap technology companies that can be more nimble. That’s attracting lots of venture capital money.

Since 2012, venture capital groups invested $13.2 billion into cybersecurity start-ups across 1,629 deals. 2015 and 2016 were record years for VC-backed investments into the space at about $4 billion a year. As government and private sector budgets for security technology continue to increase, cybersecurity will be one of the biggest technology trends for the next decade. It is already growing at an extremely fast rate.

In 2015, spending on cyber-security is forecast at $76.9 billion. By 2019, it’s expected to more than double to $155 billion.

That’s a tremendous opportunity for profitable investing, and we’re already tracking the leaders in this space.

Genomics and Bioinformatics (Technology That Improves Diagnostics)

Genomics and bioinformatics are a form of high-tech medical technology. This sector is on the cusp of exponential growth… although it probably doesn’t seem so right now.

Receiving medical care today is not much different than it was 20 years ago. Yes, there are a host of new medicines available, but the diagnostic process is essentially the same.

That’s about to change, though.With advances in our ability to

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analyze a person’s DNA through genomics and bioinformatics, the dawn of personalized medicine is just around the corner. In 2016, the cost to sequesnce a full human genome dropped to less than $1,000 for the first time in history. The costs for genomic sequencing have been dropping at a rate five times faster than Moore’s Law. Within the next two years, I believe we will see that cost drop to $100. At these price points, everyone will have their genome sequenced, and I expect that insurance will begin to cover the costs. That will cause a sea change in diagnosis and treatment.

The market for these technologies – currently around $15 billion – is expected to surpass $35 billion by 2020.

Even more exciting is a completely new industry being created around genetic editing. Since 2012, a completely new platform for editing the genomes of plants, animals, and humans was discovered. We are just now in the earliest stages of realizing how powerful this new technology can be. The best way to think of it is as “software for DNA.”

This technology can be used to cure disease, remove genetic mutations that lead to disease, create agriculture that is more resistant to drought and has a longer, natural shelf-life, and so much more.

For Exponential Tech Investor, we’re keeping our eye on nearly 20 companies in this sector.

Augmented RealityThe last area I’d like to discuss

is perhaps going to be the most “visible” to the average consumer day to day.

Augmented reality (AR), which is also at times referred to as mixed

reality (MR), is far less known than its cousin virtual reality.

While virtual reality removes the user from the real world, augmented reality augments the real world. Users of AR are able to see the real world through their AR eyewear, in addition to information or graphics overlaid on the real world in a seamless fashion.

AR will become the next industry the size of smartphones. By 2020 it is expected to be $120 billion a year.

Advancements in tiny, powerful microprocessors, graphics processors, and eyewear lens technologies have led to breakthroughs in this space. Massive companies like Microsoft and Facebook have invested billions in this technology already; but there are even more exciting new companies on the horizon.

AR is truly a mass market product because it achieves one simple thing in life… convenience. AR coupled with AI and linked to your smartphone creates a user interface to simplify so many of your daily tasks.

Think about not having to take your smartphone out of your pocket ever again. All text messages would be displayed in your AR glasses, incoming phone calls, outgoing phone calls, shopping lists could be displayed. Information about your schedule for the day, information about the store you are in or the people you are talking to, flight delays, gate changes, etc.

AR makes life simpler. It will impact all areas of our daily lives with information and tasks that will save us time and provide us with important information that we would otherwise have to physically search for. This technology is advancing so quickly, it will be a disadvantage not to use it.

And over time, AR eyewear will shrink down to AR contact lenses as the technology develops even further. Are you ready for the next billion-unit-a-year industry? I know I am.

The World Is ChangingJust 20 years ago, our world was

a very different place. Laptops and the modern Internet

were both a few years old, but neither had reached mainstream acceptance.

There were no digital cameras… no digital music players… no smartphones… no tablets… We didn’t have Facebook or texting. And if we got lost, there was no OnStar or Siri or Google Maps to save us.

Over the next 10 years, we’ll see plenty more of these types of exponential advances. Barriers will be broken… whole new industries will be created… fortunes will be made.

Computing power will surpass human brain power, and AI (artificial intelligence) will be everywhere.

Millions of autonomous, self-driving vehicles will shuttle passengers back and forth on U.S. highways saving lives, saving gasoline, reducing traffic, reducing car insurance, and freeing up time.

DNA sequencing, which now costs about $1000, will soon cost less than $100, opening the door for new preventative and personalized medicines.

Average human lifespan for anyone born in the last 20 years will exceed 100 years.

Everyone will be “plugged in,” as more than 6 billion people – three-quarters of the earth’s population

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– will have smartphones and access to high-speed wireless networks.

3-D printers will be in every home, enabling to buy and instantly create thousands of products.

Regards,

Jeff Brown, EditorExponential Tech Investor

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That should cover all the basics. We’re happy to have you with us.

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