SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM...
Transcript of SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM...
SEGRO INVESTMENT CASE
2
SEGRO Investment Case
• Largest listed pan-European warehouse owner and developer
• Prime portfolio of both big box and urban distribution warehouses
• Concentrated in Europe’s major transport hubs and population centres
• Structural growth of online retailing
• Urbanisation drives need for last mile distribution facilities
• Top customers include DHL, Amazon, Fedex, Equinix, Geodis
• High demand driven by structural changes in the nature of retail
• Big box supply constrained, linked directly to demand through pre-let/build to suit development
• Shrinking industrial land supply in urban areas
• 17.5% average annual total accounting return over past 5 years
• Driven by active asset management and profitable, de-risked development programme; land bank provides growth for 5+ years
• Strong balance sheet, conservatively geared
Prime portfolio of urban and big box
warehouses
Powerful structural growth drivers
Supportive supply-demand dynamics
Attractive through-cycle returns
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
UK
Ger Fra
Net
h
Pol
Italy
Spai
n
Und
er c
onst
ruct
ion,
m
illio
n sq
m
Majority of logistics development is pre-let or build to suit
Pre-let Speculative
0%
10%
20%
30%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Tota
l acc
ount
ing
retu
rn NAV Divi
17.5%pa
0%5%
10%15%20%
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
F
2021
F
UK FranceGermany Poland
20%12%11%10%
Online purchases as share of total retail sales
Greater London, £3.5bn
Thames Valley, £1.6bn
Midlands Logistics, £0.9bn
Germany, £1.3bn
France, £1.1bn
Poland, £0.8bn
Italy, £0.5bnOther, £0.6bn
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A leading owner-manager and developer of modern big box and urban warehousing
£10.2 billion of assets under management in the UK and nine Continental Europe countries
A FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)
Introduction to SEGRO
AUM£10.2bn
Data as at 30 June 2018
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Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses
Big box warehouses Urban warehouses
Serving national and international logistics supply chains
Most commonly used for urban distribution
Generic warehouse space to cater for multiple uses
41% of portfolio 55% of portfolio
Data as at 30 June 2018. 4% of portfolio in other, higher value uses of industrial land, e.g. self storage, car showrooms, offices
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Disciplined capital allocation central to SEGRO strategy
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1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Disposals Asset acquisitions Development capex
£3.6bn
Land(£0.6bn)
Dvptcapex
(£1.4bn)
Disposal and investment activity since 1 January 2012, £bn(to 30 June 2018)
£2.0bn
Key elements of SEGRO strategy
To be the pre-eminent owner-manager and developer of industrial and warehouse properties in Europe
and a leading income-focused REIT
To deliver attractive shareholder returns through progressive dividends and NAV growthOur
Goals
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5.25
5.55
0
5
10
15
20
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Div
iden
d pe
r sh
are,
pe
nce
Delivering strong total returns for shareholders
Adjusted earnings per share
9.7
10.8
0
5
10
15
20
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Adj
uste
d EP
S, p
ence
0
200
400
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800
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1H18
EPRA
NA
V p
er s
hare
, pe
nce
Dividend per share(Distribution policy of 85-95% of full year adjusted earnings)
EPRA NAV per share
9.7
18.6
17.6
9.9
19.1
9.4
18.4
15.8
8.0
17.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Tota
l pro
perty
ret
urn,
%
Total Property Return vs IPD benchmark1
(%) Portfolio Benchmark
3 year 15.5 13.5
5 year 14.8 13.5
1 SEGRO TPR calculated and benchmarked independently by MSCI-IPD
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Efficient, conservative capital structure
LTV ratio and average cost of debt (incl share of joint ventures), 2012-18
51%
42%
40%
38%
33%
30%
29%
4.6%4.2% 4.2%
3.5% 3.4%
2.1% 2.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
0%
20%
40%
60%20
12
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1H18
Average cost of debt
LTV
rat
io
LTV ratio Ave cost of debt
£500m+ estimated development capex (of which £100m is infrastructure and land)
2018 disposals expected to be £300-350m
£1.2bn of cash and available facilities
Average debt duration of 10 years
Driving performance through asset management
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0
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30
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2014
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1H17
1H18
Ann
ualis
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enta
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ome,
£m
New rent contracted
Net new rent on existing space
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0
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1H18
Custom
er retention rate, %
Vac
ancy
rat
e, %
0
2
4
6
8
10
2014
2015
2016
2017
1H18
Rent
cha
nge
on r
evie
w a
nd r
enew
al, %
Strong leasing success in 2018…1 …high levels of occupancy and customer retention…2
… and capturing reversion from renewals and reviews3
1 Net new rent on existing space reflects headline rent agreed on new leases less passing rent lost from space taken back during the year; new rent contracted is total headline rent secured or (in the case of developments) agreed in the year.2 Vacancy rate based on ERV; customer retention rate based on headline rent retained in the same or alternative SEGRO premises.3 Headline rent agreed on lease renewals, reviews and re-gears compared to previous headline rent.
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0
50
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300
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2012
2013
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2015
2016
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2018
Dev
elop
men
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ex, £
m
Development — a major source of growth in recent years
Development completions, million sq m (at 100%)
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, mill
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sq m
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1H18
Rent
from
com
plet
ed d
evel
opm
ents
, £m
Capex on developments, £m (SEGRO share)
Cumulative gross rent from completed developments, £m (SEGRO share)
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Big box warehousesUrban warehouses
Profitable, de-risked development — 280,000 sq m completed in H1 2018
DPD, SEGRO Park Newham SEGRO Park Morfelden
SEGRO Park Rainham
SEGRO Logistics Park Bischofsheim
SEGRO Logistics Park Aulnay Vailog Logistics Park Castel San Giovanni
SEGRO Park Amsterdam Airport
280,000sq m
Completed developments(at 100%)
£19mPotential rent (at share)— 78% secured
8.0%Yield on cost
£108mUplift on development1
Enterprise Quarter, SEGRO Park Rainham
1 Completed developments and buildings under construction
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Creating a sustainable portfolio
Second carbon-neutral development delivered
50% increase in solar energy capacity in 2017
80% construction waste recycled or re-used
DRIVING FUTURE GROWTH
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Powerful structural drivers of occupational demand
SEGRO Park Le Blanc Mesnil, Paris
Reduced land availability
Intensification of land use
“Green” delivery vehicles
More demand for goods and services
E-commercegrowth
Digital data andthe cloud
Power and data connectivity
Warehouseautomation
Urbanisation Technological revolution
Vailog Logistics Park Milan South
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Favourable market conditions
European warehouse development remains substantially pre-let(Logistics space under construction at 31 March 2018; source: JLL)
Structural tailwinds
Benign economic backdrop
Take-up levels remain strong, new development mostly pre-let
Supply and availability well balanced with demand
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UK
Ger
man
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Fran
ce
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ium
Net
h.
Pola
nd Italy
Spai
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Und
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onst
ruct
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m
illio
n sq
m
Pre-let Speculative
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4.0
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3.3
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2.0
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7.5 6.8
3.34.5
3.0
4.3
Low vacancy rates across Europe (5.0% estimated aggregate pan-European vacancy rate; source: JLL)
Big box warehouse vacancy rate, 31 March 20185.0
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Geography or Property Type
Demand conditions
Supply conditions
SEGROERV growth
2017
SEGROERV growth expectations
Greater London STRONG LIMITED 4.6%5%
2%
Slough Trading Estate / Thames Valley STRONG LIMITED 3.5%
Midlands / South East Big Box Warehousing STRONG LIMITED 1.7%
Continental Europe Urban Warehouses STRONG LIMITED 2.1%
3%
1%Continental Europe Big Box Warehousing STRONG MODERATE 0.6%
Positive expectations for rental value growth across our markets
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2007
2008
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2012
2013
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2016
2017
1H18
Poland: 6.0%
France: 4.5%
Germany: 4.4%UK: 4.5%
UK 10yr bond: 1.3%
Germany 10yr bond: 0.3%
Source: CBRE, Bloomberg (data correct at 30 June 2018), SEGRO
Investment market indicators
SEGRO developmentpipeline: 7.1%
European industrial investment volumesBy geography, €bn
Source: CBRE
Prime logistics yields, 10 year bonds, SEGRO development yields
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2006
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1H18
UK Germany France CEE Rest of Europe
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Current development pipeline: £54m rent, 48 projects, 1.1m sq m space
SEGRO Park Sant Esteve
Aulnay-Sous-Bois, Paris
Zalando, Verona
Turin, Italy
SLP East Midlands Gateway construction
Air2, Gennevilliers, Paris
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 1H18
Pre-let Speculative Let at 30 June 18
Rapid leasing of speculative space(Letting status of development completions in 2014-18, %)
346
71
18
Annualised gross cash passing rent1, £ million(as at 30 June 2018)
1 Including JVs at share2 Near-term development opportunities include pre-let agreements subject to final conditions such as planning permission, and speculative developments subject to final approval, which are expected to commence within the next 12 months3 Estimated. Excludes rent from development projects identified for sale on completion and from projects identified as “Near-term opportunities”
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Passing rent at30 June 2018
Rent in rent-free, reversions and vacant space
Current and near-term
development pipeline2
Future pipeline and land held under option
TotalPotential
1453
£147m potential from current activity 638
Significant potential for further income growth
OneExpress, Bologna
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SEGRO Investment Case
SEGRO Park Düsseldorf-Sud
Prime portfolio of urban and big box
warehouses
Powerful structural growth drivers
Supportive supply-demand dynamics
Attractive through-cycle returns
Significant growth potential fromasset management and development
APPENDIX
Summary of H1 2018 financial results
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Earnings growth– Development completions– Like-for-like rental growth– Reduced financing costs
+21.3% Adjustedpre-tax profit
+11.3% Adjusted EPS, 10.8p
+2.3% Like-for-like net rental income growth
Strong capital structure– 5.9% portfolio value growth– Net investment of £251 million
+8.5% EPRA NAV per share603p
29% Loan to Value ratio(FY 2017: 30%)
2018 interim dividend increased by 5.7% 5.55pInterim dividend per
share(H1 2017: 5.25p)
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Portfolio by type: UK(valuation, SEGRO share)
Food and general manufacturing
18%
Transport & Logistics 23%
Retail 18%
TMT 8%
Parcel delivery 11%
Wholesale & Retail
Distribution 8%
Services & Utilities7%
Other 7%
Customer sectors (headline rent, SEGRO share)
Portfolio yield profile (yields, %)
4.6 5.0 5.24.8
5.4 5.76.8
5.95.1
3.64.5 4.6
3.95.1
5.76.9
5.8
4.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0Equivalent Yield Topped-up net initial yield
Greater
London
Slough TE
Midlands
Logistics
UK
Germ
any
France
Poland
Cont.
Europe
Group
SEGRO portfolio at 30 June 2018
Big box warehouses
26%
Urban warehousing68%
Other6%
Big box warehouses
76%
Urban warehousing
23%
Other 1%
Portfolio by type: Cont Europe(valuation, SEGRO share)
6.8%
5.7%
5.7%
5.4%
5.2%
5.0%
4.6%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
Poland
France
Italy
Germany
Midlands Big Box
Slough
London At 30 June 2018
Change since 31Dec 2017
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1 Yield on standing assets at 30 June 2018; ERV growth based on assets held throughout H1 2018.2 Net true equivalent yield
SEGRO portfolio yield and rental profile1
+3.1%
UK: +2.3%
+1.6%
+0.4%
+0.6%
Cont.Eur.
+0.6%
+2.1%
+0.3%
+0.2%
Equivalent yield: 5.1%2 ERV growth: 1.7%
By owner ERV
SEGRO +0.9%
SELP +0.4%
London ERV
Heathrow +3.3%
Park Royal +2.4%
N&E London +4.7%
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SEGRO European Logistics Partnership (SELP) headline figures
Assets under management (as at 30 June 2018)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2G
erm
any
Pola
nd/
Cze
ch
Fran
ce
Italy
Belg
ium
/N
eth'
ds
Spai
n
Ass
ets
unde
r m
anag
emen
t, €
bn
AUM at 30 June 2018 AUM at inception€999m
€671m
€895m
€108m€231m€240m
€3.1bn Land and assets
3.0%Capital valuechange
€180mHeadlinerent
98% Occupancyrate
5.8% Equivalentyield
0.4% ERV growth
€179m ERV
32% LTV ratio
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£200m+ rent from development opportunities in SEGRO’s control
1 Future development pipeline in the 2018 Half Year Property Analysis Report.2 Total capex of £587m including capex already incurred.
Dev
elop
men
t pi
pelin
e
Are
a (s
q m
)
Estim
ated
cos
t to
co
mpl
ete
(£m
)
Pote
ntia
l gr
oss
rent
(£m
)
Estim
ated
de
velo
pmen
t yi
eld
Prop
ortio
n
pre-
let
Expe
cted
de
liver
y
Current 1,076,300 4262 54 7.1% 71% 1-12 months
Near-termpre-lets1 236,700 149 17 7% 100% 12-18 months
Future1 2.0m 894 91 7-8% n/a 1-5 years
Optioned land 908,000 n/a 54 7% n/a 1-10 years
UK (36%) Germany (20%)Italy (22%) France(6%)
Poland(7%)
Potential annualised gross rent from current, near-term and future pipeline, by country (£162 million at 30 June 2018)
Other(9%)
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UK Big Box supply-demand dynamics1
(m sq m)
Data correct as at 26 July 20181 Source: JLL (logistics warehouses >100,000 sq ft, Grade A)2 Source: CBRE
Speculative UK Big Box completions1
(m sq m)
Favourable demand-supply conditions
France logistics supply-demand dynamics2
(m sq m)
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2011
2012
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2017
1H18
No. of years’ supply
Take
-up
/ av
aila
bilit
y, m
sq
m
Average availability
Take-up
Available space as multiple of annual take-up
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
1H18
Com
plet
ions
, m s
q m
Construction Non-SEGRO market
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1.0
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5.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1H18
No. of years’ supply
Take
-up
/ av
aila
bilit
y, m
sq
m
Average availabilityTake-upAvailable space as multiple of annual take-up
27
SEGRO Logistics Park East Midlands Gateway
1 Includes costs relating to Shop Direct building which will be sold on completion2 Includes mezzanine floors; 177,000 sq m based on footprint.
Kegworth bypass
Rail Freight Terminal
Container storage
East Midlands Airport
Construction costs1
— £27m spent
M1
£322m
Land and infra costs1
— £139m spent£183m
Total potential space— 250,000 sq m under construction2
550,000sq m
Total potential rent— £11.8m secured— 7% yield on cost
£34m
28
Heathrow Cargo Area
Terminal 5
Central Terminal Area
Terminal 4
Shoreham Road(The Horseshoe)
‘Zulu’Cul-de-sacSandringham Road
29
Forward-looking statements and Disclaimer
This Presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire, SEGRO’s
securities in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this Presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be
relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever.
This Presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to SEGRO’s expectations and plans, strategy, management’s objectives, future
performance, costs, revenues and other trend information. These statements and forecasts involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend upon
circumstances that may occur in the future. There are a number of factors which could cause actual results or developments to differ materially from those expressed or
implied by these forward looking statements and forecasts. The statements have been made with reference to forecast price changes, economic conditions and the
current regulatory environment. Any forward-looking statement is based on information available to SEGRO as at the date of the statement. SEGRO does not undertake
any obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statement to reflect any change in SEGRO’s expectations or events, conditions or circumstances on which any
such statement is based.
Nothing in this Presentation should be construed as a profit forecast. Past share performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
Contact Details
Harry StokesCommercial Finance Director+44 (0) 20 7451 [email protected]
8 August 2018