SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM...

29
SEGRO INVESTMENT CASE

Transcript of SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM...

Page 1: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

SEGRO INVESTMENT CASE

Page 2: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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SEGRO Investment Case

• Largest listed pan-European warehouse owner and developer

• Prime portfolio of both big box and urban distribution warehouses

• Concentrated in Europe’s major transport hubs and population centres

• Structural growth of online retailing

• Urbanisation drives need for last mile distribution facilities

• Top customers include DHL, Amazon, Fedex, Equinix, Geodis

• High demand driven by structural changes in the nature of retail

• Big box supply constrained, linked directly to demand through pre-let/build to suit development

• Shrinking industrial land supply in urban areas

• 17.5% average annual total accounting return over past 5 years

• Driven by active asset management and profitable, de-risked development programme; land bank provides growth for 5+ years

• Strong balance sheet, conservatively geared

Prime portfolio of urban and big box

warehouses

Powerful structural growth drivers

Supportive supply-demand dynamics

Attractive through-cycle returns

0.0

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Ger Fra

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Majority of logistics development is pre-let or build to suit

Pre-let Speculative

0%

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Tota

l acc

ount

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retu

rn NAV Divi

17.5%pa

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10%15%20%

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2021

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UK FranceGermany Poland

20%12%11%10%

Online purchases as share of total retail sales

Page 3: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

Greater London, £3.5bn

Thames Valley, £1.6bn

Midlands Logistics, £0.9bn

Germany, £1.3bn

France, £1.1bn

Poland, £0.8bn

Italy, £0.5bnOther, £0.6bn

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A leading owner-manager and developer of modern big box and urban warehousing

£10.2 billion of assets under management in the UK and nine Continental Europe countries

A FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)

Introduction to SEGRO

AUM£10.2bn

Data as at 30 June 2018

Page 4: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

Big box warehouses Urban warehouses

Serving national and international logistics supply chains

Most commonly used for urban distribution

Generic warehouse space to cater for multiple uses

41% of portfolio 55% of portfolio

Data as at 30 June 2018. 4% of portfolio in other, higher value uses of industrial land, e.g. self storage, car showrooms, offices

Page 5: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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Disciplined capital allocation central to SEGRO strategy

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4.5

Disposals Asset acquisitions Development capex

£3.6bn

Land(£0.6bn)

Dvptcapex

(£1.4bn)

Disposal and investment activity since 1 January 2012, £bn(to 30 June 2018)

£2.0bn

Key elements of SEGRO strategy

To be the pre-eminent owner-manager and developer of industrial and warehouse properties in Europe

and a leading income-focused REIT

To deliver attractive shareholder returns through progressive dividends and NAV growthOur

Goals

Page 6: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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5.25

5.55

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2018

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pe

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Delivering strong total returns for shareholders

Adjusted earnings per share

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10.8

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2018

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EPRA

NA

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hare

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Dividend per share(Distribution policy of 85-95% of full year adjusted earnings)

EPRA NAV per share

9.7

18.6

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urn,

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Total Property Return vs IPD benchmark1

(%) Portfolio Benchmark

3 year 15.5 13.5

5 year 14.8 13.5

1 SEGRO TPR calculated and benchmarked independently by MSCI-IPD

Page 7: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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Efficient, conservative capital structure

LTV ratio and average cost of debt (incl share of joint ventures), 2012-18

51%

42%

40%

38%

33%

30%

29%

4.6%4.2% 4.2%

3.5% 3.4%

2.1% 2.0%

0.0%

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0%

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40%

60%20

12

2013

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2015

2016

2017

1H18

Average cost of debt

LTV

rat

io

LTV ratio Ave cost of debt

£500m+ estimated development capex (of which £100m is infrastructure and land)

2018 disposals expected to be £300-350m

£1.2bn of cash and available facilities

Average debt duration of 10 years

Page 8: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

Driving performance through asset management

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New rent contracted

Net new rent on existing space

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Strong leasing success in 2018…1 …high levels of occupancy and customer retention…2

… and capturing reversion from renewals and reviews3

1 Net new rent on existing space reflects headline rent agreed on new leases less passing rent lost from space taken back during the year; new rent contracted is total headline rent secured or (in the case of developments) agreed in the year.2 Vacancy rate based on ERV; customer retention rate based on headline rent retained in the same or alternative SEGRO premises.3 Headline rent agreed on lease renewals, reviews and re-gears compared to previous headline rent.

Page 9: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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Development — a major source of growth in recent years

Development completions, million sq m (at 100%)

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Cumulative gross rent from completed developments, £m (SEGRO share)

Page 10: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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Big box warehousesUrban warehouses

Profitable, de-risked development — 280,000 sq m completed in H1 2018

DPD, SEGRO Park Newham SEGRO Park Morfelden

SEGRO Park Rainham

SEGRO Logistics Park Bischofsheim

SEGRO Logistics Park Aulnay Vailog Logistics Park Castel San Giovanni

SEGRO Park Amsterdam Airport

280,000sq m

Completed developments(at 100%)

£19mPotential rent (at share)— 78% secured

8.0%Yield on cost

£108mUplift on development1

Enterprise Quarter, SEGRO Park Rainham

1 Completed developments and buildings under construction

Page 11: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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Creating a sustainable portfolio

Second carbon-neutral development delivered

50% increase in solar energy capacity in 2017

80% construction waste recycled or re-used

Page 12: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

DRIVING FUTURE GROWTH

Page 13: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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Powerful structural drivers of occupational demand

SEGRO Park Le Blanc Mesnil, Paris

Reduced land availability

Intensification of land use

“Green” delivery vehicles

More demand for goods and services

E-commercegrowth

Digital data andthe cloud

Power and data connectivity

Warehouseautomation

Urbanisation Technological revolution

Vailog Logistics Park Milan South

Page 14: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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Favourable market conditions

European warehouse development remains substantially pre-let(Logistics space under construction at 31 March 2018; source: JLL)

Structural tailwinds

Benign economic backdrop

Take-up levels remain strong, new development mostly pre-let

Supply and availability well balanced with demand

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Pre-let Speculative

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3.34.5

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4.3

Low vacancy rates across Europe (5.0% estimated aggregate pan-European vacancy rate; source: JLL)

Big box warehouse vacancy rate, 31 March 20185.0

Page 15: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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Geography or Property Type

Demand conditions

Supply conditions

SEGROERV growth

2017

SEGROERV growth expectations

Greater London STRONG LIMITED 4.6%5%

2%

Slough Trading Estate / Thames Valley STRONG LIMITED 3.5%

Midlands / South East Big Box Warehousing STRONG LIMITED 1.7%

Continental Europe Urban Warehouses STRONG LIMITED 2.1%

3%

1%Continental Europe Big Box Warehousing STRONG MODERATE 0.6%

Positive expectations for rental value growth across our markets

Page 16: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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2008

2009

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1H18

Poland: 6.0%

France: 4.5%

Germany: 4.4%UK: 4.5%

UK 10yr bond: 1.3%

Germany 10yr bond: 0.3%

Source: CBRE, Bloomberg (data correct at 30 June 2018), SEGRO

Investment market indicators

SEGRO developmentpipeline: 7.1%

European industrial investment volumesBy geography, €bn

Source: CBRE

Prime logistics yields, 10 year bonds, SEGRO development yields

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UK Germany France CEE Rest of Europe

Page 17: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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Current development pipeline: £54m rent, 48 projects, 1.1m sq m space

SEGRO Park Sant Esteve

Aulnay-Sous-Bois, Paris

Zalando, Verona

Turin, Italy

SLP East Midlands Gateway construction

Air2, Gennevilliers, Paris

0%

20%

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100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 1H18

Pre-let Speculative Let at 30 June 18

Rapid leasing of speculative space(Letting status of development completions in 2014-18, %)

Page 18: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

346

71

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Annualised gross cash passing rent1, £ million(as at 30 June 2018)

1 Including JVs at share2 Near-term development opportunities include pre-let agreements subject to final conditions such as planning permission, and speculative developments subject to final approval, which are expected to commence within the next 12 months3 Estimated. Excludes rent from development projects identified for sale on completion and from projects identified as “Near-term opportunities”

76

Passing rent at30 June 2018

Rent in rent-free, reversions and vacant space

Current and near-term

development pipeline2

Future pipeline and land held under option

TotalPotential

1453

£147m potential from current activity 638

Significant potential for further income growth

OneExpress, Bologna

Page 19: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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SEGRO Investment Case

SEGRO Park Düsseldorf-Sud

Prime portfolio of urban and big box

warehouses

Powerful structural growth drivers

Supportive supply-demand dynamics

Attractive through-cycle returns

Significant growth potential fromasset management and development

Page 20: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

APPENDIX

Page 21: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

Summary of H1 2018 financial results

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Earnings growth– Development completions– Like-for-like rental growth– Reduced financing costs

+21.3% Adjustedpre-tax profit

+11.3% Adjusted EPS, 10.8p

+2.3% Like-for-like net rental income growth

Strong capital structure– 5.9% portfolio value growth– Net investment of £251 million

+8.5% EPRA NAV per share603p

29% Loan to Value ratio(FY 2017: 30%)

2018 interim dividend increased by 5.7% 5.55pInterim dividend per

share(H1 2017: 5.25p)

Page 22: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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Portfolio by type: UK(valuation, SEGRO share)

Food and general manufacturing

18%

Transport & Logistics 23%

Retail 18%

TMT 8%

Parcel delivery 11%

Wholesale & Retail

Distribution 8%

Services & Utilities7%

Other 7%

Customer sectors (headline rent, SEGRO share)

Portfolio yield profile (yields, %)

4.6 5.0 5.24.8

5.4 5.76.8

5.95.1

3.64.5 4.6

3.95.1

5.76.9

5.8

4.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0Equivalent Yield Topped-up net initial yield

Greater

London

Slough TE

Midlands

Logistics

UK

Germ

any

France

Poland

Cont.

Europe

Group

SEGRO portfolio at 30 June 2018

Big box warehouses

26%

Urban warehousing68%

Other6%

Big box warehouses

76%

Urban warehousing

23%

Other 1%

Portfolio by type: Cont Europe(valuation, SEGRO share)

Page 23: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

6.8%

5.7%

5.7%

5.4%

5.2%

5.0%

4.6%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%

Poland

France

Italy

Germany

Midlands Big Box

Slough

London At 30 June 2018

Change since 31Dec 2017

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1 Yield on standing assets at 30 June 2018; ERV growth based on assets held throughout H1 2018.2 Net true equivalent yield

SEGRO portfolio yield and rental profile1

+3.1%

UK: +2.3%

+1.6%

+0.4%

+0.6%

Cont.Eur.

+0.6%

+2.1%

+0.3%

+0.2%

Equivalent yield: 5.1%2 ERV growth: 1.7%

By owner ERV

SEGRO +0.9%

SELP +0.4%

London ERV

Heathrow +3.3%

Park Royal +2.4%

N&E London +4.7%

Page 24: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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SEGRO European Logistics Partnership (SELP) headline figures

Assets under management (as at 30 June 2018)

0.0

0.2

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1.2G

erm

any

Pola

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/N

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unde

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anag

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bn

AUM at 30 June 2018 AUM at inception€999m

€671m

€895m

€108m€231m€240m

€3.1bn Land and assets

3.0%Capital valuechange

€180mHeadlinerent

98% Occupancyrate

5.8% Equivalentyield

0.4% ERV growth

€179m ERV

32% LTV ratio

Page 25: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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£200m+ rent from development opportunities in SEGRO’s control

1 Future development pipeline in the 2018 Half Year Property Analysis Report.2 Total capex of £587m including capex already incurred.

Dev

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pelin

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Are

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q m

)

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cos

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oss

rent

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)

Estim

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Prop

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pre-

let

Expe

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de

liver

y

Current 1,076,300 4262 54 7.1% 71% 1-12 months

Near-termpre-lets1 236,700 149 17 7% 100% 12-18 months

Future1 2.0m 894 91 7-8% n/a 1-5 years

Optioned land 908,000 n/a 54 7% n/a 1-10 years

UK (36%) Germany (20%)Italy (22%) France(6%)

Poland(7%)

Potential annualised gross rent from current, near-term and future pipeline, by country (£162 million at 30 June 2018)

Other(9%)

Page 26: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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UK Big Box supply-demand dynamics1

(m sq m)

Data correct as at 26 July 20181 Source: JLL (logistics warehouses >100,000 sq ft, Grade A)2 Source: CBRE

Speculative UK Big Box completions1

(m sq m)

Favourable demand-supply conditions

France logistics supply-demand dynamics2

(m sq m)

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No. of years’ supply

Take

-up

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Average availability

Take-up

Available space as multiple of annual take-up

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

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Com

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Construction Non-SEGRO market

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Average availabilityTake-upAvailable space as multiple of annual take-up

Page 27: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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SEGRO Logistics Park East Midlands Gateway

1 Includes costs relating to Shop Direct building which will be sold on completion2 Includes mezzanine floors; 177,000 sq m based on footprint.

Kegworth bypass

Rail Freight Terminal

Container storage

East Midlands Airport

Construction costs1

— £27m spent

M1

£322m

Land and infra costs1

— £139m spent£183m

Total potential space— 250,000 sq m under construction2

550,000sq m

Total potential rent— £11.8m secured— 7% yield on cost

£34m

Page 28: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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Heathrow Cargo Area

Terminal 5

Central Terminal Area

Terminal 4

Shoreham Road(The Horseshoe)

‘Zulu’Cul-de-sacSandringham Road

Page 29: SEGRO INVESTMENT CASEA FTSE 100 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Introduction to SEGRO AUM £10.2bn Data as at 30 June 2018 4 Investment focused on modern urban and big box warehouses

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Forward-looking statements and Disclaimer

This Presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire, SEGRO’s

securities in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this Presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be

relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever.

This Presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to SEGRO’s expectations and plans, strategy, management’s objectives, future

performance, costs, revenues and other trend information. These statements and forecasts involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend upon

circumstances that may occur in the future. There are a number of factors which could cause actual results or developments to differ materially from those expressed or

implied by these forward looking statements and forecasts. The statements have been made with reference to forecast price changes, economic conditions and the

current regulatory environment. Any forward-looking statement is based on information available to SEGRO as at the date of the statement. SEGRO does not undertake

any obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statement to reflect any change in SEGRO’s expectations or events, conditions or circumstances on which any

such statement is based.

Nothing in this Presentation should be construed as a profit forecast. Past share performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.

Contact Details

Harry StokesCommercial Finance Director+44 (0) 20 7451 [email protected]

8 August 2018