2.0 – 5.0 EUR · 44. Segro Business Park Warsaw, Ożarów 45. Segro Logistics Park Warsaw,...

1

R E S E A R C H

1

Real Estatefor a changing

world


world

Data from the first half of 2017 showed that the Industrial & Logistic market is the fastest developing real estate sector in Poland. Development is driven by strong tenant demand for warehouse and logistics space. This is confirmed by the fact that, despite the delivery of a significant volume of space in the first quarter, vacancy rates are still at a low level.

Total stock delivered in H1 2017

Vacancy rate as of Q2 2017 Rent range (m2/month)

Under construction

At a glance Q2 2017

801,200 m2

2.0 – 5.0 EUR

1,252,400 m2

INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND

NEW

5.9%

1IMPRESIVE FIRST HALF OF 2017

Over the first six months of 2017 a record volume of 801,200 sqm was delivered, of which 74% was completed in Q1. This accounts for 60% of new supply in the entire 2016. The largest delivery of new supply was located in the Poznań hub (133,000 sqm), Warsaw II hub (115,700 sqm) and in the Central Poland hub (111,800 sqm). The biggest schemes com-pleted in H1 were another phase of P3 Błonie (47,500 sqm) Pana-ttoni BTS Kaufland (45,650 sqm) and Prologis Park Piotrków II (42,200 sqm).

3VACANCY RATES GOES DOWN

Compared to the situation at the end of Q1 2017, the overall vacancy rate decreased by 0.4 p.p. and currently stands at 5.9%. In the context of a significant growth of new supply, such trend results from strong take-up.

Currently, schemes under construction are on average 80% leased. This means that warehouses are often almost fully let upon completion.

2OVER 1.25M SQM UNDER CONSTUCTION

The impressive numbers of new deliveries did not discourage developers from launching new projects. Currently there are al-most 1,252,400 sqm under construction. The largest schemes in-clude: Panattoni BTS Amazon Szczecin (161,000 sqm) and Good-man BTS Zalando Szczecin (130,000 sqm). The construction of another large-scale BTS project, Panattoni BTS Amazon Sosno- wiec (135,000 sqm), was launched in 2017. As the names indi-cate, e-commerce remains a strong demand driver for the sector.

4RENTS STILL STABLE

The high level of demand, which translates into leasing transactions and schemes under construction, is in equilibrium. Therefore the significant increase of supply does not signifi-cantly affect the level of asking rents. The highest rental costs are for warehouses located within the boundaries of Warsaw. Central Poland records the lowest rates as the market there is dominated by large-scale big box parks and build to suits.

2

AT A GLANCE - INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND - Q2 2017

1.00 EUR 2.00 EUR 3.00 EUR 4.00 EUR 5.00 EUR 6.00 EUR

Toruń/Bydgoszcz

Szczecin

Tricity Region

Cracow Region

Lublin/Rzeszów

Central Poland

Lower Silesia

Poznań Region

Upper Silesia

Warsaw II

Warsaw I

8.7%

6.3%

4.4%

8.8%

7.9%

0.5%

2.7%

8.9%

5.7%

9.1%

7.5%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Toruń/Bydgoszcz

Szczecin

Tri-city Region

Kraków Region

Lublin/Rzeszów

Central Poland

Lower Silesia

Region Poznania

Upper Silesia

Warsaw II

Warsaw I

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

Szczecin

Tri-city Region

Kraków Region

Central Poland

Lower Silesia

Toruń/Bydgoszcz

Poznań Region

Upper Silesia

Warsaw II

Lublin/Rzeszów

Warsaw I

MLP 2.8%CBRE GI 2.4%

Hines 3.2%

GLL 2.1%Hillwood 2.1%

GIC 5.0%

Goodman 7.7%Logicor 7.9%

Panattoni 15.7%

Segro 9.8%

others 21.1% Prologis 20.3%

Warsaw I 5.9%

Warsaw II 21.4%

Upper Silesia 17.6%

Poznań Region 14.7%

Central Poland 13.0%

Lower Silesia 12.8%

Tri-city Region 3.6%Lublin/Rzeszów 2.9%

Kraków Region 2.6%

Szczecin 1.8%Toruń/Bydgoszcz 2.4%

others 0.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H12017

m²

new supply stock vacancy rate

Vacancy rate, modern industrial and logistics stock

Landlord market share, Q2 2017

Market share by hub, Q2 2017

Rental ranges by hub, € per sqm/month, Q2 2017

Under contruction industrial and logistics space, Q2 2017 (sqm) Vacancy rate by hub, Q2 2017

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate

Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate




3

SZCZECIN

BYDGOSZCZ

GORZÓW WLKP.

WROCŁAW

OPOLE

KATOWICE

KIELCE

KRAKÓWRZESZÓW

LUBLIN

ŁÓDŹ

WARSZAWA

BIAŁYSTOK

POZNAŃ

ZIELONAGÓRA

PIOTRKÓW TRYB.

GDAŃSK

OLSZTYN

TORUŃ

4

54

3 2

2

3

5

2

1

1


PRIMARY HUBS:1. Warsaw I & Warsaw II2. Upper Silesia3. Poznań4. Central Poland5. Lower Silesia

SECONDARY HUBS:1. Tri-City1. Lublin / Rzeszów2. Cracow3. Szczecin4. Bydgoszcz / Toruń

BNP Paribas Real Estate has divided the industrial & logistics market into the 5 primary hubs (over 1 million sqm) and 5 secondary markets as marked on the map.

MAJOR NATIONAL ROADS

HIGHWAYS:EXISTINGUNDER CONSTRUCTION

PLANNED

EXPRESS WAYS:EXISTINGUNDER CONSTRUCTION

PLANNED

MAP OF INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS HUBS & TRANSPORTATION NETWORK


4

Narew

Wisła

Utrata

Jezi

orka

Pomiechówek

Czosnów

Wieliszew

Nieporęt

Jabłonna

Izabelin C

Stare Babice

Opacz

Janki

NadarzynLesznowola

ŁOMIANKI

LEGIONOWO

NOWY DWÓRMAZOWIECKI

OTWOCK

PRUSZKÓW

MARKI

KOBYŁKA

WOŁOMIN

ZIELONKA

ZĄBKI

JÓZEFÓW

KARCZEW

KONSTANCIN--JEZIORNA

PIASECZNO

PIASTÓW

BRWINÓW

PODKOWA LEŚNA

OŻARÓW MAZOWIECKI

WARSZAWA

E77

E77

E30

E30

E67

E67

62

61

79

7

8

2

7

A2

S8

S8

S2

7

19

28

13

4

202

25

23

21

5

2227

1839

1. Airport House2. Bokserska Distribution Center3. City Point4. Diamond Business Park Ursus5. Distribution Park Annopol6. Distribution Park Okęcie7. Distribution Park Żerań8. Gate One9. Hillwood Warsaw I10. Ideal Distribution Centre11. Ideal Idea III12. Ideal Idea IV13. Kolmet14. Krakowska Distribution Center15. Logicor Warszawa 16. Manhattan Business

& Distribution Center17. Modularna Distribution Centre18. Metropol Park Jagiellońska19. Norblin Industrial Park20. Platan Park21. Prologis Park Warsaw II22. Prologis Park Warsaw – Żerań23. Segro Business Park Warsaw,

Żerań24. Space Distribution Center25. Ursus Logistic Center26. Warsaw Distribution Center27. Wenecka28. Żoliborskie Centrum Biurowo-

Magazynowe

LotniskoWarszawa Okęcie

im. Fryderyka Chopina

W-WARAKÓW

AL. K

RAKO

WSK

A

AL. JE

ROZO

LIMSK

IE

Łopuszańska

Kleszczowa

Ryżo

wa

SzyszkowaPOŁUDNIOWA

OBWODNICA WARSZAWY (S2)

Nowolazurowa

15

1711

8

1

614 26

16

10

12 24

0 2 4 6 8 km


• The highest rents for warehouse space in Poland are recorded in Warsaw I cluster.

• Warehouse schemes are smaller than in other clusters. Also, they often offer more office space and form Small Business Units (SBU).

• The vacancy rate remains at 8.7%. It is one of the highest in Poland.

• Limited availability and high land prices significantly reduce cluster development.

PRIMARY HUBS1

WARSAW I

EXISTING & UNDER CONSTRUCTION

1. Supply over 1m sqm.

3.50-5.00 EUR

8.7%Vacancy rate

Under construction

Total existing stock

WARSAW I

691,100 m2

58,200 m2

Rent range (per sqm/mth)

*for the next 6 months

KEY INDICATORS & FUTURE TRENDS* ( )

5

1. Altmaster Wola Mrokowska 2. Altmaster Pęcice 3. Altmaster Piaseczno 4. Błonie Business Park 5. Distribution Park Grodzisk Maz. 6. Good Point Puławska II, IIIa, IIIb7. Goodman Grodzisk Logistics Centre 8. Hillwood Błonie9. Hillwood Błonie II10. Hillwood Klawaria11. Hillwood Marki12. Hillwood Ożarów II13. Hillwood Ożarów Logistic Center14. Hillwood Pruszków15. Lexar Distribution Park16. Logicor Błonie17. Logicor Łazy18. Logicor Piaseczno 19. Logicor Święcice 20. Logicor Teresin 21. MLP Pruszków I22. MLP Pruszków II 23. MLP Teresin 24. P3 Błonie 25. P3 Mszczonów26. Panattoni Park Garwolin27. Panattoni Park Grodzisk I, II, III28. Panattoni Park Janki I, II29. Panattoni Park Konotopa 30. Panattoni Park Pruszków II 31. Piaseczno Business Park 32. Point of View Góra Kalwaria33. Point of View Kawęczyn 34. Point of View Piaseczno 35. Prologis Park Błonie36. Prologis Park Błonie II37. Prologis Park Janki38. Prologis Park Nadarzyn39. Prologis Park Sochaczew 40. Prologis Park Teresin 41. Pruszkowskie Centrum

Dystrybucyjne42. Raszyn Business Park43. Reguły Logistic Park 44. Segro Business Park Warsaw,

Ożarów45. Segro Logistics Park Warsaw,

Nadarzyn 46. Segro Logistics Park Warsaw,

Pruszków 47. Techniczna Industrial Park 48. WAN Pruszków49. West Park Ożarów50. West Park Pruszków

1. Diamond Business Park Raszyn 2. DL Invest Słomczyn Grójec

Narew

Bug

Bzura

Wkra

Utrata

Pisia

Raw

ka

Wisła

Utrata

Pilic

a

Jezi

orka

J. Zegrzyńskie

Dzierzążnia

Naruszewo

Joniec

NoweMiasto

Załuski

Pomiechówek

Zakroczym

Leoncin

Czerwińsknad Wisłą

Wyszogród

Brochów

Kampinos

Teresin

Baranów

Jaktorów

Puszcza Mariańska

NowyKawęczyn

Regnów

Cielądz Sadkowice

Błędów

Pniewy

Goszczyn

Mogielnica

BelskDuży

Promna

JasieniecBiałaRawska

Chynów

Prażmów

Tarczyn

ŻabiaWola

Lesznowola

Wiązowna

Sulejówek

Józefów

Karczew

Konstancin--Jeziorna

Góra Kalwaria

Nadarzyn

Sobienie--Jeziory

Grabównad Pilicą

Kowiesy

Radziejowice

Wiskitki

Leszno

Błonie

MilanówekPodkowaLeśna

Brwinów

Pruszków

OżarówMazowiecki

Raszyn

Stare Babice

Izabelin C

Młodzieszyn

Winnica

NasielskPłońsk

PokrzywnicaZatory

Somianka

Dąbrówka

Klembów

Kobyłka

Marki

Nieporęt

Radzymin

ZielonkaZąbki

Serock

Wieliszew

JabłonnaCzosnów

Świercze

WARSZAWASOCHACZEW

ŁOMIANKI

NOWY DWÓRMAZOWIECKI

LEGIONOWO

WOŁOMIN

OTWOCK

Warka

GRÓJEC

PIASECZNO

Rawa Mazowiecka

MSZCZONÓW

ŻYRARDÓW

GRODZISKMAZOWIECKI

E77

E30

E67 E77

E77

E30

50

62

92

79

50

79

50

5070

62

62

61

85

7

2

7

A2

S8

S8

S8

S7

128

29

32

14

16

11

30

23

277

2

1

2

331

33

25

3536

3815

39 40

4142

43

17

45

4

6

92122

138

26

192050

5

10

24

18

441249

34

37

46

47

48

0 5 10 15 20 km


WARSAW II


2.00-3.20 EUR

6.3%2,630,800 m2

272,100 m2

WARSAW II

Vacancy rate

Under construction





PLANNED

• Warsaw II is the largest warehouse market in Poland. It accounts for 22.4% of the country’s total stock.

• In Q2 2017 the total volume of stock under construction was 272,100 sqm, which is the second highest result among all warehouse markets in Poland.

• Supply grew by over 100,000 sqm in Q2. The largest scheme delivered was another phase of P3 Błonie (47,500 sqm).

• The rapid increase of the new supply and the dominance of large-scale projects affects rental rates, which are stable and remain at one of the lowest levels in the country.

• New transport infrastructure in the eastern (S8, A2) and southern (S8, S19) parts of the hub will result in warehouse development in these directions over the following years.

6

1. 7R Gliwice2. 7R Siemianowice Śląskie3. City Flex Business Park Bytom4. City Flex Business Park Gliwice5. City Flex Business Park

Katowice6. DL Invest Park Dąbrowa

Górnicza7. Hillwood Katowice8. MLP Czeladź9. Prologis Park Ruda10. Prologis Park Ujazd

1. 7R Beskid Park2. Alliance Silesia Logistics Center3. Centrum Logistyczne Milowice4. Diamond Business Park Gliwice5. Distribution Park Będzin6. Distribution Park Sosnowiec7. DL Invest Park Psary/Czeladź 8. Goodman Gliwice Logistics

Centre9. Goodman Sosnowiec Logistics

Centre10. Górnośląski Park Przemysłowy11. Hillwood Bielsko-Biała12. Logicor Czeladź13. Logicor Gliwice I14. Logicor Gliwice II15. Logicor Mysłowice16. Logicor Czeladź17. MLP Bieruń18. MLP Gliwice19. MLP Tychy20. Panattoni Park Bielsko-Biała II21. Panattoni Park Czeladź III22. Panattoni Park Gliwice II, III23. Panattoni Park Ruda24. Panattoni Park Sosnowiec I, II, III25. Prologis Park Będzin II26. Prologis Park Chorzów27. Prologis Park Dąbrowa28. Segro Business Park Gliwice29. Segro Industrial Park Tychy30. Segro Industrial Park Tychy II31. Segro Logistics Park Gliwice32. Śląskie Centrum Logistyczne33. Terminal Logistyczny Promont

Tychy

Warta

J. Porajskie

M

ała Panew

Przemsza

Soła

Wisła

Brynica

Cza

rna

Pr

zem

sza

J. Goczałkowickie

Olza

Pszczynka

Ruda

J. Rybnickie

Kłodnica

DobrodzieńCiasna

Pawonków

Zawadzkie

Lubliniec

Kochanowice

Koszęcin

Blachownia

Herby Konopiska

BoronówStarcza

Olsztyn

Podczesna

KamienicaPolska

Poraj

Koziegłowy

Woźniki

Kalety

KrupskiMłyn

Wielowieś

Tworóg

Miasteczko Śl.

SiewierzMierzącice

Poręba

OżarowiceŚwierklaniec

RadzinkówZbrosławicePyskowice

Toszek

Jemielnica

StrzelceOpolskie

Warmątowice

Ujazd

Rudziniec

KuźniaRaciborska

Pilchowice

Sośnicowice

Nędza

Lyski Jejkowice

Gaszowice

RydułtowyPszów

RadlinMarklowice

Gorzyce Mszana

Godów

Zebrzydowice

DębowiecHażlach

SkoczówJaworze

Kozy

Bestwina

Goczałkowice--Zdrój

Miedźna Brzeszcze

BojszowyKobiór

Suszec

Pawłowice

Orzesze

Ormontowice

Gierałtowice

WyryŁaziska G.

Lędziny

Bieruń

Chełm Śl.

Chełmek

Libiąż

Imielin

PsaryBobrowniki

PIEKARY ŚL.

TARNOWSKIEGÓRY

DĄBROWA G.BYTOM

GLIWICE

RYBNIK TYCHY

BIELSKO--BIAŁA

ZABRZERUDA ŚL.

ŚWIĘTOCHŁOWICE

CHORZÓW

SOSNOWIEC

JAWORZNOMYSŁOWICE

JASTRZĘBIE--ZDRÓJ

Wojkowice

PolankaWielka

Przeciszów

Wilamowice Wieprz

Osiek

Andrychów

Kęty

Jasienica

StrumieńChybie

Bohumín

Petřvald

HAVÍŘOV

KARVINÁ

ORLOVÁ

Jankowice

ŻarkiKolonowskie

MYSZKÓW

KNURÓW

CZERWIONKA--LESZCZYNY

ŻORY

PSZCZYNA

OŚWIĘCIMWODZISŁAWŚLĄSKI

CZECHOWICE--DZIECICE

KATOWICE

CZĘSTOCHOWA

E75

E40

E40

E40E75

E40E75

E462

E462

E462

46

11

9478

78

86

1178

88

94

94

44

86

81

44

152

78

67

81

475

40

40

88

1

46

46

S86

S1

S1

S1

S1

S1

S69

A1

A1

A1

A4

A4

A1

A1

7

181

30

3

6

7

9

10

88

3

2

45

2

31

24

5

16

6251221

102623

17

1322

201929

11

1

14932

33

27

15

428

0 5 10 15 20 km

Vacancy rate

Under construction






UPPER SILESIA


PLANNED

2.00-3.20 EUR

4.4%2,065,700 m2

253,200 m2

• Upper Silesia remains the second largest market in Poland after Warsaw II.

• Warehouse space increased by 23,000 sqm in Q2 2017, follow-ing the delivery of Goodman Gliwice Logistics Centre and Segro Logistics Park Gliwice.

• Despite completion of new supply, vacancy rate decreased by 0.2 p.p. compared to the end of Q1. This demonstrates undimin-ishing tenant interest.

• There are 253,200 sqm under construction, of which more than a half is Panattoni BTS Amazon Sosnowiec.

• The range of rental rates in Upper Silesia is similar as in other major warehouse clusters.

7

1. Centrum Magazynowe Bugaj2. Clip – Centrum Logistyczno

Inwestycyjne Poznań3. Distribution Park Gądki4. Doxler5. Goodman Poznan II Logistics

Centre6. Goodman Poznań III Logistics

Center7. Goodman Poznań Airport

Logistics Centre8. Goodman Poznań Logistics

Centre9. Logicor Poznań I10. Logicor Poznań II11. Logicor Poznań III12. Logit13. Luvena Logistic Park Poznań14. MLP Poznań15. Nickel Technology Park Poznań16. P3 Poznań17. Panattoni Park Poznań III18. Panattoni Park Poznań IV19. Panattoni Park Poznań V20. Panattoni Park Poznań VI21. Panattoni Park Poznań VII22. Panattoni Park Poznań Airport23. Panattoni Park Września24. Prologis Park Poznań I25. Prologis Park Poznań II26. Segro Logistics Park Poznań,

Gądki27. Segro Logistics Park Poznań,

Komorniki

1. MLP Poznań II2. Prologis Park Poznań III3. Segro Logistics Park Poznań,

Gołuski

Warta

Mogilnica

War

ta

Lubasz

Połajewo

Wronki Obrzycko

OstrorógSzmotuły

Oborniki

Rokietnica

Kaźmierz

Duszniki

Buk

Opalenica

Granowo

GrodziskWielkopolski

Kamieniec

Śmigiel

LipnoOsieczna

Krzywiń

DolskJaraczewo

KsiążWielkopolski

Brodnica

Czempiń

Mosina

StęszewPuszczykowo

Kleszczewo

Dominowo

Nekla

Czerniejewo

Pobiedziska

MurowanaGoślina

Łubowo

Kiszkowo

Kłecko

Sroki

Mieścisko

WapnoBudzyń

Rogoźno

Kostrzyn

Czerwonak

SuchyLas

ŚrodaWielkopolska

Miłosław

Zaniemyśl

Kórnik

Komorniki

Krzykosy NoweMiaston. WartąKościan

Dopiewo

TarnowoPodgórne

Ryczywół

POZNAŃ

WĄGROWIEC

SWARZĘDZ

ŚREM

JAROCIN

E30

E30

E261

E261

E261

11

11

92

92

11

12

11

15

15

32 5

5

S5

S11A2

A2

7

2

6

20

18

1

2

311 16

9

24

22

21

26

25

23

19

4

10

8

1314

15

5

27

1217

3

1

.

0 5 10 15 20 km



Vacancy rate

Under construction





POZNAŃ HUB

PLANNED

2.00-3.20 EUR

8.8%1,733,300 m2

115,300 m2

• Poznań hub recorded the highest growth of new space out of all industrial and logistics clusters in H1 2017.

• The largest projects completed in Q2 2017: another build-ing of Panattoni Park Poznań VIII (21,300 sqm) and P3 Poznań (7,300 sqm).

• Because of the delivery of new space, the vacancy rate has slightly increased by 0.4 p.p. to the level of 8.8%.

• Rents are stable, but the relatively high percentage of vacancy and the volume of new schemes, can strengthen further tenant negotiating positions.

• There is an increasing number of warehouses being built in the area between Poznań and the German border, along major transportation corridors.

8

J. Sulejowskie

Wolbórk

a

Pilica

Raw

ka

Skierniew

ka

Rawka

Bzura

Mro

ga

Bzura

Mos

zcze

nic a

Bzura

Ner

Grabia

Widawka

Luciąża

Pilica

Czarna

Parzęczew

Góra św. Małgorzaty

Bielawy

ZdunyChąśno Nowa

Sucha

NieborówBolimów

Godzianów

Słupia

Żelechlinek

Czerniewice

Inowłódz

SławnoMniszków

Będków

RokicinyBrójce

Grabica

DrużbiceZelów

ŁękiSzlacheckie Ręczno

Aleksandrów

Paradyż

Budziszewice

Nowy Kawęczyn

Łyszkowice

MakówDmosin

Ozorków Głowno

ŁOWICZ

SKIERNIEWICE

Łęczyca

ZGIERZ

Piątek

Lutomiersk

Dobroń

Ksawerów

Andrespol

Rogów

LipceReymontowskie

Jeżów

Głuchów

Dłutów

Kluki

Kleszczów

Sulmierzyce

Gorzkowice

Rozprza

WolaKrzysztoporska

Białaczów

Żarnów

Rzeczyca

Lubochnia

UjazdCzarnocin

Moszczenica

Domaniewice

Witonia

Brzeziny

KoluszkiKonstantynówŁódzki

AleksandrówŁódzki

PABIANICE

BEŁCHATÓWPIOTRKÓWTRYBUNALSKI

TOMASZÓWMAZOWIECKI

Stryków

Rzgów

Tuszyn

Kamieńsk

Sulejów

Wolbórz

Opoczno

RAWAMAZOWIECKA

ŁÓDŹ

E75E30

E30

91

14

92

5092

70

70

72

72 72

71

71

71

14

12

91

9174

4412

481

1

8

E75

E75

E67

S8

S14

E67

A1

A1

A1

A2

A2

72

1319

18

4

6

8

21

13

722

12

119

16

15

17

2

10 145

20

2

1

0 5 10 15 20 km

1. Diamond Business Park Stryków 2. Goodman Łódź Logistics Centre3. Hillwood Stryków 4. Logicor Łódź5. Logicor Łódź II6. Logicor Łódź III 7. Logicor Stryków8. Logis 9. Logistic City – Piotrków

Distribution Centre 10. Łódź Business Park 11. P3 Piotrków 12. Panattoni Park Business Center

Łódź 13. Panattoni Park Business Center

Łódź II, III, IV14. Panattoni Park Łódź East 15. Panattoni Park Stryków II16. Prologis Park Piotrków I 17. Prologis Park Piotrków II18. Prologis Park Stryków 19. Prologis Park Rawa 20. Segro Business Park Łódź 21. Segro Logistics Park Łódź22. Segro Logistics Park Stryków

1. Hillwood Łódź2. MLP Łódź

0 5 10 15 20 km



Vacancy rate

Under construction





CENTRAL POLAND

PLANNED

2.00-3.20 EUR

0.5%1,530,000 m2

65,100 m2

• The central location, well developed transport infrastructure and relatively good access to the labour force make the cluster constantly popular among tenants.

• Central Poland is characterised by the lowest vacancy rate in the country. It reached only 0.5% at the end of June. This means a drop of 1.8 p.p. as compared to the end of Q1 2017.

• There was only one warehouse delivered on this market in Q2 2017 - another phase of Prologis Park Stryków (18,100 sqm). The completed scheme was fully leased upon delivery, which is typical for Central Poland Region.

• Currently, the largest buildings under construction are the next stage of the Segro Logistics Park Stryków (30,400 sqm) and Panattoni Park Stryków II complex (18,600 sqm).

9

Oława

Oław

a

Odra

Odra

J. Mietkowskie

Strzegomka

Wąsosz

Jemielno

Wińsko Żmigród

Milicz

Twardogóra

Dobroszyce

ZawoniaTrzebnicaOborniki Śl.

WiszniaMała

Brzeg Dolny

Wołów

Malczyce

Miękinia

Kostomłoty

Mietków

Marcinowice Sobótka

Łagiewniki

Kondratowice

NiemczaPieszyce

StoszowiceNowaRuda

PiławaGórna Ciepłowody

Ziębice

Przeworno

Grodków

Olszanka

Wiązów

Domaniów

Żórawina

Siechnice

Czernica

Długołęka

BIerutów

Jelcz--Laskowice

Lubsza

Kobierzyce

Strzelin

SkarbimierzOsiedle

Ząbkowice Śl.

JordanówŚląski

Borów

Żarów

KątyWrocławskie

ŚrodaŚląska

Krośnice

Prusice

OLEŚNICA

OŁAWA

BRZEGŚWIDNICA

DZIERŻONIÓW

BIELAWA

WROCŁAW

E67

E67

E40

E67

E40

E40

E261

36

94

94

94

35

39

15

5

5

8

8

25

S5

S8S8

S8

A1

A4

A8

A4

13

10

1

2

123

1

2

93

5

4

22

24

6 23

16

17

18 11

21 19

20

14

15

15

8

7

0 5 10 15 20 km

0 5 10 15 20 km

1. Distribution Park Wrocław2. Eurologis3. Gazowa Industrial Park4. Goodman Wrocław IV Logistics

Centre5. Goodman Wrocław East

Logistics Centre6. Goodman Wrocław South

Logistics Centre7. Hillwood Wrocław I8. Hillwood Wrocław II9. Hillwood Wrocław III10. MLP Wrocław11. Panattoni Park Wrocław II12. Panattoni Park Wrocław III13. Panattoni Park Wrocław IV14. Panattoni Park Wrocław V 15. Panattoni Park Wrocław VIII 16. Prologis Park Wrocław I17. Prologis Park Wrocław III18. Prologis Park Wrocław IV19. Prologis Park Wrocław V20. Segro Industrial Park Wrocław21. Tiner Logistic Park22. Wrocław Business Park23. Wrocław Logistic Center24. VATT Invest Wrocław

1. Goodman Wrocław V Logistics Centre

2. MountPark Wrocław3. Wrocław Logitic Centre Bielany



Vacancy rate

Under construction





LOWER SILESIA

PLANNED

2.60-3.60 EUR

7.9%1,503,700 m2

65,500 m2

• Lower Silesia owes its development to good transport infrastructure and proximity to the southern and western borders of the country.

• There was no new warehouse scheme delivered to this hub in Q2 2017.

• The second quarter of the year brought an increase of vacancy rates by 0.6 p.p., which reached 7.9%.

• Rental rates in the Wrocław area belong to one of the highest among the main industrial and logistics hubs (excluding the area within the boundaries of Warsaw).

• At the turn of 2017 and 2018, a part of the S5 expressway to the north of Wroclaw shall be completed. It will improve links between Poznań and the northern part of Poland and will create favourable conditions for the development of the warehouse market to the north of the city.

10

J. Żarno-wieckie

Z a t o k aP u c k a

Z a t o k a

G d a ń s k a

Wisła

Nogat

Martwa

Wisła

Reda

J. Raduńskie Dln.

Radunia

Krokowa

Jastarnia

Władysławowo

Puck

Gniewino

Reda

Luzino

Szemud

Przodkowo

ŻukowoChmielno

KARTUZY

Somonino

Przywidz

Kolbudy

Nowa Karczma

Liniewo

Stara Kiszewa

Kaliska

Zblewo

Pelplin

SulkowyMiłoradz

Lichnowy

PszczółkiTrąbkiWielkie

Skarszewy

Suchy Dąb

CedryWielkie

Ostaszewo

Stegna

Sztutowo

Nowy DwórGdański

Nowy Staw

StaryTarg

Kosakowo

HelWEJHEROWO

PRUSZCZGDAŃSKI

STAROGARDGDAŃSKI

MALBORK

SZTUM

GDYNIA

GDAŃSK

SOPOT

RUMIA

TCZEW

E28

E28

E77

E75

20

55

55

2222

2291

91

20

6

7

7

S6

S7

S6

S6

A1

58

4 1

612

7

1023

13

914 11

1

1. Diamond Business Park Gdańsk

1. 7R Tczew2. Gdański Distribution Centre

Kowale I3. Gdański Distribution Centre

Kowale II4. Gdański Distribution Centre

Kowale III5. Gdański Distribution Centre

Kowale IV6. Centrum Magazynowe Hutnicza7. Goodman Pomeranian Logistics

Centre8. Hillwood 7R Kowale II9. Logistic Center Pruszcz Gdański10. Panattoni Park Gdańsk11. Panattoni Park Gdańsk II12. Port Gdynia Logistic Centre13. Prologis Park Gdańsk14. Segro Logistics Park Gdańsk

0 5 10 15 20 km

1. Supply below 1m sqm.


TRI-CITY HUB

2.50-3.50 EUR

5.7%399,600 m2

48,700 m2

PLANNED

• The Tri-City region is the largest industrial and logistics mar-ket in Northern Poland. The proximity of international seaports, airports and expressways contributes to the development of in-termodal transport.

• Delivery the next phase of Goodman Pomeranian Logistics Cent-er increased the total warehouse supply in Tri-city by 20,900 sqm.

• Despite completion of new supply, vacancy rate decreased by 1.5 p.p. compared to the end of Q1.

• At the end of June, there were two A-class warehouses under construction – another phase of Goodman Pomeranian Logistics Center (36,700 sqm) and Hillwood 7R Gdansk 2 (12,000 sqm).

SECONDARY HUBS1



Vacancy rate

Under construction




11

Wieprz

Chodelka

Bystrzy

ca

Abramów

Kurów

Końskowola Markuszów

GarbówJastków

Nałęczów

Wojciechów

Poniatowa

Bełżyce

Borzechów

Jabłonna

Piaski

MełgiewMilejów

CycówPuchaczów

Łęczna

Ludwin

SpiczynNiemce

Serniki

Lubartów

JakubowiceMurowane

Trawniki

Fajsławice

ŁopiennikGórny

Chodel

Konopnica

NiedrzwicaDuża

Wąwolnica

Kamionka

LUBLIN

ŚWIDNIK

48

19

19

19

74

8217

17

12

12

S19

S17

S17

S19

S17

5

34

12

Przyr w

a

Wisłok a

Łęg

Wisła

Wisła

ZalewPilzno W

isło

k

Wisłoka

Szydłów Staszów Łoniów

Osiek

BaranówSandomierski

PadewNarodowa

TuszówNarodowy

GawłuszowiceBorowaPacanów

Szczucin

WadowiceGórne

RadomyślWielki Przecław

Radgoszcz

Dąbrowa Tarnowska

LisiaGóra

Pustków

Żyraków

Czarna

Pilzno

WielopoleSkrzyńskie

Wiśniowa

Frysztak

Kołaczyce

Wojaszówka

TarnowiecJedlicze

Dębowiec

Chorkówka

Niebylec

Domaradz

JasienicaRozielna

Brzozów

Haczów

Korczyna

Czudec

Iwierzyce

Boguchwała

Tyczyn

Lubenia

ŚwilczaTrzebownisko

GłogówMałopolski

NiwiskaKolbuszowa

Cmolas

Dzikowiec

MajdanKrólewski

Bojanów

Grąbów

NowaDęba

Raniżów

Ostrów SędziszówMłp.

Ropczyce

Skrzyszów

Tuchów

Ryglice

RzepiennikStrzyżewski

Ciężkowice

Moszczenica

Szerzyny

Skołyszyn

Biecz

ŁużnaLipinki

Jodłowa Brzostek

Brzyska

PołaniecŁubnice

Koprzywnica

Rytwiany

Oleśnica

Tuczępy

TARNÓW

RZESZÓWDĘBICA

STRZYŻÓW

JASŁO

GORLICE

KROSNO

MIELEC

TARNOBRZEGSTALOWA

WOLA

79

79

73

73

73

28

9

9

4

9

E371

E40

A4

A4

S19

6 9

8

7

1

10

0 5 10 15 20 km

0 5 10 15 20 km

1. Centrum Logistyczne Mełgiewska

2. Centrum Logistyczne Tokarska3. Goodman Lublin Logistics

Centre4. MLP Lublin 5. Panattoni Park Lublin6. Centrum Logistyczne Rogoźnica7. Panattoni Park Rzeszów8. Skalski Logistic Park Podgrodzie9. Waimea Cargo Terminal

Rzeszów-Jesionka10. Waimea Logistic Park Korczowa

1. Korczowa Logistic Park



Vacancy rate

Under construction





LUBLIN / RZESZÓW

3.20-3.30 EUR

2.7%342,800 m2

16,900 m2

PLANNED

• There was only one scheme delivered to this market in Q2 2017 - Waimea Cargo Terminal Rzeszów-Jasionka (4,900 sqm).

• The total warehouse space under construction is equal to 16,900 sqm, with the largest scheme being MLP Lublin (12,100 sqm).

• A lack of significant inflow of new supply allow to reduce the vacancy rate. It dropped by 3.9 p.p. in Q2 and at the end of June amounted to 2.7%.

• The planned completion of the S19 expressway between War-saw and Lublin in 2019 will significantly improve communica-tion with the capital and should increase the potential for the development of the industrial and logistics sector in this area.

• Route S19 between Lublin and Rzeszow, which is a part of the route Via Carpatia, is currently in the process of a public tender.

12

ŚwinnaPoręba (bud.)

J. Dobczyckie

Raba

Raba

Skawa

S kawa

Wisła

Ogrodzieniec

Żarnowiec

Sędziszów

Kozłów

Charsznica

Miechów

KsiążWielki

Michałów

Słaboszów

Działoszyce

CzarnocinRacławice

PałecznicaRadziemice

Koniusza

Luborzyca

Michałowice

IwanowiceWłościańskie

Skała

WielkaWieś

Zielonki

TrzyciążGołcza

Sułoszowa

Klucze

Bolesław

Bukowno

Trzebinia

Krzeszowice

Zabierzów

Alwernia

Spytkowice

Brzeźnica

Tomice

Wadowice

KalwariaZebrzydowska

StryszówLanckorona

Mucharz

Zembrzyce

Stryszawa

Tokarnia

BystraJordanów

RabaWyżna

Rabka--Zdrój

MszanaDolna

Lubień

Pcim

Wiśniowa

Jodłownik

Dobra Tymbark

Laskowa

ŻegocinaTrzciana

Łapanów

NowyWiśnicz

Raciechowice

Dobczyce

Myślenice

SieprawMogilany

Skawina

Wieliczka

ŚwiątnikiGórne

Sułkowice

Gdów

Tomaszkowice

Niepołomice

Kłaj Rzezawa

LipnicaMurowana

Limanowa

Łukowica

Słopnica

Niedźwiedź

Zawoja

SuchaBeskidzka

MakówPodhalański

Budzów

Liszki

Czernichów

Babice

JerzmanowiceProszowice

NoweBrzesko

DrwinaWawrzeńczyce

SłomnikiKazimierzaWielka

Skalbmierz

Pińczów

Wodzisław

Wolbrom

Pilica

OLKUSZ

CHRZANÓW

BOCHNIA

KRAKÓW

ZAWIERCIE

E40

E40

E77

E462

E77

94

79

44

52

28

28

28

28

75

47

7

7

7975

7

S7

S7

S7A4

A41

1

4

8

26

5

9

103

7

1. Centrum Logistyczne Kraków III

1. Centrum Logistyczne Kraków Kokotów

2. Centrum Logistyczne Kraków I3. Centrum Logistyczne Kraków II4. Goodman Kraków Airport

Logistics Centre5. Logicor Kraków6. MARR Business Park7. MG Logistic8. Panattoni Park Kraków II, III, IV9. RB Logistic Olkusz10. Witek Airport Logistic Centre

0 5 10 15 20 km



Vacancy rate

Under construction





CRACOW HUB

PLANNED

2.70-3.60 EUR

307,600 m2

17,600 m2

8.9%

• There was no new delivery in Cracow region in Q2 2017.• Vacancy rate in the hub fell by 3 p.p. and stood at 8.9%, which

still is one of the highest results out of the analysed clusters.• The high vacancy rate resulted in a meager volume of space

under construction (17,600 sqm).• Issues connected with attracting occupiers to Cracow Hub have

put pressure on the rental ranges, which reduced prime head-line rates. Still, Cracow remains the second most expensive warehouse market after Warsaw.

13

Ina

Randow

Randow

Odra

Zac

h.

Odra

Płonia

Ina

Gowienica

RoztokaOdrzańska

Z a l e w S z c z e c i ń s k i J. Nowowar-

pieńskie

Małe Dąbie

J. Dąbie

J. Miedwie

Odra

Wsc

h.

Brüssow

Gartz

Penkun

Osina

Stara Dąbrowa

StareCzarnowo

Kołbaskowo Kobylanka

Dobra

Stepnica

Maszewo

Gryfino

Nowogard

GoleniówPOLICE

STARGARDSZCZECIŃSKI

SZCZECIN

E65

E65

E65

E28

E28

104

E28

E28

10

10

20

10

1331

2

2

A6

S3

S3

S6

S10

12

2

1

31. North-West Logistic Park2. Panattoni Park Szczecin I3. Prologis Park Szczecin

1. Waimea Logistic Park Port Morski Szczecin

2. Waimea Logistic Park Statgard

0 5 10 15 20 km

Brda

Kanał

Noteć

Notecki

Wisła

Wisła

Drwęca

Sicienko

Osielsko

PruszczStolno

Lisewo

Chełmża

Łysomice

LubiczDolny

Obrowo

CiechocinekAleksandrówKujawski

MałaNieszawka

Rojewo

ZłotnikiKujawskie

Nowa WieśWielka

BiałeBłota

SolecKujawski

ZławieśWielka

Łabiszyn

Barcin

WielkaNieszawka

Gniewkowo

KowalewoPomorskie

PłużnicaKijewoKrólewskie

DąbrowaChełmińska

Unisław

Łubianka

PapowoBiskupie

Dobrcz

BYDGOSZCZ

TORUŃ

E75

E261

E261

25

25

15

15

5591

10

10

80

80

5

5

A1

S5

S5

S5S10

S10

5

4

13

2

1

1. Logistic and Business Park Bydgoszcz

2. Goodman Toruń Logistics Centre

3. Panattoni Park Bydgoszcz4. Panattoni Park Toruń5. Waimea Logistic Park Bydgoszcz

1. Diamond Business Park Toruń

0 5 10 15 20 km


SZCZECIN HUB


PLANNED

• The only finished schems in H1 were two schemes were deliv-ered in Q1 on the Szczecin warehouse market: Panattoni Park Szczecin I (12,800 sqm) and Prologis Park Szczecin I (9,300 sqm).

• The vacancy rate did not fluctuate over Q2. Currently 9,1% of existing stock remains available.

• The total space under construction amounted to 293,500 sqm, which is split between the two large BTS schemes designed for e-commerce giants – Amazon and Zalando.

• Thanks to the proximity of the German border, relatively high labour availability and the development of transport infrastruc-ture the Szczecin market is very popular among the e-commerce companies.

BYDGOSZCZ / TORUŃ • Only in the H1 2017, the industrial and logistics market in the

Bydgoszcz / Toruń Hub increased by 74%. It was caused by deliv-ery of the three large-scale warehouse schemes in Q1, the larg-est of which was Panattoni BTS Kaufland (45 650 sqm).

• Currently, there is only one scheme under construction – Wai-mea Logistic Park Bydgoszcz (16,200 sqm) consisting of two buildings.

• Delivery of new supply and expiry of significant lease agree-ments resulted in an increase in vacancy rate by 6.4 p.p. in com-parison to the end of 2016. Currently the share of space avail-able accounts for 7.5%.


2.40-3.10 EUR

7.5%278,600 m2

16,200 m2

Vacancy rate

Under construction





PLANNED

2.50-3.60 EUR

9.1%209,000 m2

293,500 m2

Vacancy rate

Under construction





14


Selected lease transactions, H1 2017

Selected schemes under construction, H1 2017

Selected schemes delivered, H1 2017

Tenant Scheme Hub Area leased (sqm) Type of lease

Amazon Panattoni BTS Amazon Sosnowiec Upper Silesia 135,000 BTS

Castorama BTS Castorama Central Poland 101,700 BTS

BSH Panattoni Łódź BSH BTS Central Poland 79,000 new

KN P3 Piotrków Warsaw II 55,800 new

OBI BTS OBI Łódź Central Poland 50,700 BTS

confidential Hillwood Stryków I Central Poland 46,700 renewal + expansion

BMW BTS Goodman Świecko other 32,000 BTS

Arvato Segro Logistics Park Stryków Central Poland 30,300 new

Scheme Hub Developer Area (sqm)

P3 Błonie Warsaw II P3 47,500

Panattoni BTS Kaufland Bydgoszcz/Toruń Panattoni 45,650

Prologis Park Piotrków II Central Poland Prologis 42,200

Panattoni BTS Carrefour Bydgoszcz/Toruń Panattoni 38,000

Clip Poznań Poznań CLIP 37,800

Centrum Logistyczne Tokarska Lublin/Rzeszów CLM 35,000

Panattoni BTS IFA Rotorion Upper Silesia Panattoni 34,000

Panattoni Park Poznań V Poznań Panattoni 32,300

Panattoni BTS Decathlon Central Poland Panattoni 32,000Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate



Scheme Hub Developer Area (sqm)

Panattoni BTS Amazon Szczecin Szczecin Panattoni 161,000

Panattoni BTS Amazon Sosnowiec Upper Silesia Panattoni 135,000

Goodman BTS Zalando Szczecin Goodman 130,000

Panattoni Park Grodzisk III Warsaw II Panattoni 66,100

P3 Poznań Poznań P3 57,100

Panattoni Park Grodzisk II Warsaw II Panattoni 42,700

Panattoni Park Pruszków II Warsaw II Panattoni 38,600

Hillwood Marki 1 Warsaw I Hillwood 38,500

DEFINITIONSIndustrial and logistics stock (sqm) – a term covering the following sub-types of existing space: Light Manufacturing and Warehousing (including Logistics), delivered to the market by professional developers.

Take-up (sqm) – transactions regarding industrial and logistics space including: pre-lets, built-to-suit, new transactons, renegotiations and sub-lease.

Vacancy rate (%) – ratio representing the percentage of physically va-cant space in existing properties.

Rent range (in Euro per sqm) – Rental rates for a 2,000 sqm unit rang-ing from the top to average modern industrial and logistic schemes in a given hub.

15

BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland Sp. z o.o. al. Jana Pawła II 25, 00-854 WarsawTel. +48 22 653 44 00www.realestate.bnpparibas.pl


Sour

ce: L

ibra

ry B

NP

Parib

as R

eal E

stat

e

AUTHORSzymon Dołęga Junior Consultant, Research & Consultancy Department, Central & Eastern Europe, [email protected]

CONTACTSAnna Staniszewska Head of Research & Consultancy, Central & Eastern Europe, [email protected] Pyś-Fabiańczyk Head of Industrial & Logistics Department, Central & Eastern Europe, [email protected] Żuchniewicz Associate Director, Industrial & Logistics Department, [email protected] Kajka Consultant, Industrial & Logistics Department, [email protected] Gnich Junior Consultant, Industrial & Logistics Department, [email protected] Drukker Managing Director, Agency & Valuation, Central & Eastern Europe, [email protected] Baran MIRCS acting Director, Head of Valuation, Central & Eastern Europe, [email protected] Palmer FRICS SIOR Director, Industrial Investments & Valuations, Central & Eastern Europe, [email protected]

All rights reserved. At a Glance is protected in its entirety by copyright. No part of this publication may be reproduced, translated, transmitted, or stored in a retrieval system in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of BNP Paribas Real Estate.

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2.0 – 5.0 EUR · 44. Segro Business Park Warsaw, Ożarów 45. Segro Logistics Park Warsaw,...

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