Economic indicators
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1 Economic indicators 2nd part : The labour market v1.0
description
Economic indicators. 2nd part : The labour market v1.0. Labour Force Survey LFS for Canada september 2013 (thousands of persons). 28 762,9. Pop 15 year old and more (potentially economically active). 19 105,7. 9 657,2. Labour force. Inactive Pop. 1325. 17 789,7. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Economic indicators
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Economic indicators
2nd part :
The labour market v1.0
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28 762,9Pop 15 year old and more
(potentially economically active)
19 105,7
Labour force
1325
Unemployed
17 789,7
Employed
9 657,2
Inactive Pop
Labour Force Survey LFS for Canada
september 2013 (thousands of persons)
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29 165,9
Les 15 ans et +
19 227,4
Population active
1 258,8
Chômeurs
17 968,6
Employés ou personnes occupées
9 938,5
Inactifs
L’enquête sur la population active, L’enquête sur la population active, novembre 2014 novembre 2014 (chiffres en milliers) Selon Statistique (chiffres en milliers) Selon Statistique CanadaCanada
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What are the key indicators of the labour market ?
labour force participation ra
#unemployedunemployment rate (jobless rate)= 100
#labour force
#labour forte
Employment rate
ce= 100
#Pop 15 year old+
# workers= 100
#Pop 15 year old+
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The Labour market data in Canada comes from
• The monthly Labour Force Survey LFS
• Sampling 53 000 households
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Unemployed or not?
In the monthly Labour Force Survey LFS, the following questions are asked.
Do you currently hold a job? NoDo you want to work? YesAre you making efforts to find a job? YesIf you answered the above answers, you are
considered unemployed by Statcan.
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What are the types of unemployment?
• Frictional• Structural • Cyclical• Seasonal
Frictionally unemployed person
He has skills that are in demand in the labour market.
He is looking for a job and should find work quickly.
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A structurally unemployed person
His skills are not in demand in the labour market.
It may be a long job search. He may become inactive (discouraged worker)
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Cyclically unemployed person
When someone loses his job because of a recession or of an economic downturn, he becomes cyclically unemployed.
This is the only type of unemployment that can be completely eliminated.
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What are the difficulties in interpreting the unemployment data?
1) Bias in the survey’s answers
example: Someone who just lost his job and did not start looking for
work. Is he going to tell the interviewer?
2) Discouraged job seekers can distort the interpretation of changes in the unemployment rate.In economics, a discouraged worker is a person of legal employment age who is not actively seeking employment or who does not find employment after long-term unemployment. This is usually because an individual has given up looking or has had no success in finding a job, hence the term "discouraged".http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discouraged_worker
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A villageImagine a village where we have: 90 workers 10 unemployed persons 60 inactive persons •What is the unemployment rate?
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#unemployedunemployment rate= 100
#labour force
10100 10%
90 10
6 months later …Now we have: 90 workers 8 unemployed persons 62 inactive persons Two of the 10 unemployed persons lose faith in the job market and become discouraged workers, the unemployment rate decreases ???
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8unemployment rate 100 8.16%
90 8
The unemployment rate has declined, but we don’t observe more jobs than before!
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1 year later …
A new business just sets up in the village, the figures become :100 workers 13 unemployed persons 47 inactive persons
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13unemployment rate 100 11.5%
100 13
Now the unemployment rate increases while more people are working …
The labour force increased (less discouragement, students joining the labour force,...)
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3) Geographically, the statistics are not homogeneous.
Unemployment rates:February 2013 2006
Canada = 7.2% 6,3%Terre-Neuve = 11.7% 14,8%Alberta = 4.5 % 3,4%Québec = 7.4 % 6,3%Ontario = 7.7 % 6,3%
What is full employment?The unemployment rate never reaches 0%, but
we can still achieve full employment
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In monetarist economics, particularly the work of Milton Friedman, NAIRU is an acronym for non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, and refers to a level of unemployment below which inflation rises. It is widely used in mainstream economics. It was first introduced as NIRU (non-inflationary rate of unemployment) as an improvement over the "natural rate" of unemployment concepthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU
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Output gap = Output – Potential output21
For various reason, every day people lose their jobs and even for the most qualified, a job search always requires some time.
Therefore there is always some unemployment.
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The natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate which corresponds to full employment.
It is not defined by a specific rate but rather by a situation.
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Full employment is reached when cyclical unemployment has been completely eliminated.
Then the unemployment rate is at its natural rate.
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Changes in the unemployment rate in Canada
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What are the economic and social costs associated with unemployment periods?
• Production loss (income) - irrecoverable • Health problem • Criminality • Increased public and private spending
A theoretical explanation of unemployment
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Technological progress and unemployment
technology employment
productivity
profits purchasing power of shareholders prices purchasing power of consumers wages purchasing power of workers
purchasing power demand for goods & services
production employementUncertain, but ...
Emploi au Canada
Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l02/cst01/labr66a-fra.htm29
Source: http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/[email protected]?iid=1630
Source: http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/[email protected]?iid=1631
Source: http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/[email protected]?iid=1632
Source: http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/[email protected]?iid=1633
Source: http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/[email protected]?iid=1634
Emploi au Canada
Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l02/cst01/econ10-fra.htm35
Taux de chômage Canada vs Québec
Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l02/cst01/lfss01b-fra.htm
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Taux de chômage Canada vs Québec
Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l02/cst01/lfss01b-fra.htm
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Source: http://www.msss.gouv.qc.ca/statistiques/sante-bien-etre/index.php?Evolution-du-taux-de-chomage-selon-lage-et-selon-le-sexe
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Source: http://www.msss.gouv.qc.ca/statistiques/sante-bien-etre/index.php?Evolution-du-taux-de-chomage-selon-lage-et-selon-le-sexe
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Taux de chômage Canada vs US
• Certaines différences conceptuelles ont pour effet de gonfler le taux de chômage au Canada par rapport à celui des États-Unis. Ainsi, Statistique Canada classe notamment parmi les chômeurs les personnes qui recherchent un emploi de façon passive (p. ex., en lisant les petites annonces) ainsi que celles qui commenceront à travailler prochainement, alors que le Bureau of Labor Statistics des États-Unis exclut ces deux catégories de ses calculs. De plus, la méthode de calcul canadienne inclut les personnes âgées de 15 ans, dont le taux de chômage est supérieur à la moyenne, tandis que la méthode utilisée aux États-Unis n'en tient pas compte.
• Source: http://www.budget.gc.ca/2013/doc/plan/chap2-fra.html#ftn3
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Taux de chômage Canada vs US
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Taux de chômage US
42Source: http://www.macrotrends.net/1377/u6-unemployment-rate
Taux de chômage Canada vs US
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Taux de chômage US
44Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment
Durée du chômage US
45Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment
