Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014 · Montgomery County Quarterly...

Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014

1

The purpose of this report is to keep policy makers apprised of changes in

the national and local economies that

the Montgomery County Department of Finance

believes may impact current and/or future revenues and expenditures.

This report is also available through the Internet

on the Montgomery County Web Page:

http://www.montgomerycountymd.gov

For questions regarding this report, please contact:

David Platt

Chief Economist

Montgomery County Department of Finance

101 Monroe Street, 15th

Floor

Rockville, Maryland 20850

Phone: (240) 777-8866

Email: [email protected]


2

NATIONAL ECONOMY

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce, gross

domestic product (GDP) increased at 3.2 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate during the

fourth quarter of 2013. That increase follows sixteen out of seventeen quarters of growth since

the end of the recession in June 2009. Based on the January Wall Street Journal (WSJ) survey

(January 10 -14), fifty economists surveyed expect economic growth to increase 2.8 percent for

calendar year 2014 and 2.9 percent for calendar year 2015. The survey of economists expects

the jobless rate to be at 6.6 percent by June, 6.3 percent at the end of 2014, and 5.5 at the end of

2016. The result of the survey of economists shows that inflation pressures, as measured by the

consumer price index (CPI), will remain below 2.0 percent throughout 2014, and gradually

increase to 2.3 percent by December 2016.

Subsequent to the January 28-29 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC,

Committee) of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Committee “expects

that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace

and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent

with its dual mandate.”

Both the WSJ January survey of economists and the economic projection by the FOMC in

December suggest that the unemployment will gradually decrease to 5.5 percent by the end of

2016 and inflation, as measured by either the CPI or the PCE indices, will increase slightly to 2.3

percent (CPI) or 2.0 percent (PCE). In either case, inflation will remain subdued over the next

three years while unemployment will decrease.

Data released by BEA for the fourth quarter showed that the increase in real GDP was largely

attributed to an increase in personal consumption expenditures (↑3.3% - up from the 2.0% during

the third quarter of last year), exports (↑11.4% - up from the 3.9% during the third quarter),

nonresidential fixed investment (↑3.8% compared to 4.8% during the third quarter). The

deceleration in the fourth quarter reflected a deceleration in private inventory investment which

added 0.42 percent point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 1.67 percentage

points to the third-quarter change of 4.1 percent.


3

-2.7%

2.0%

-2.0%

-8.3%

-5.4%

-0.4%

1.3%

3.9%

1.6%

3.9%

2.8% 2.8%

-1.3%

3.2%

1.4%

4.9%

3.7%

1.2%

2.8%

0.1%

1.1%

2.5%

4.1%3.2%

2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2008

:I

2008

:II

2008

:III

2008

:IV

2009

:I

2009

:II

2009

:III

2009

:IV

2010

:I

2010

:II

2010

:III

2010

:IV

2011

:I

2011

:II

2011

:III

2011

:IV

2012

:I

2012

:II

2012

:III

2012

:IV

2013

:I

2013

:II

2013

:III

2013

:IV

(adv

.)

2014

:I (e

st.)

2014

:II (

est.)

2014

:III

(est

.)

2014

:IV

(est

.)

Per

cent

Cha

nge

Year:Quarter

Percent Change in Real GDP

SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Hatched bars from Wall Street Journal

survey conducted January 10-14.

NOTE: Percent changes are at annual rates.

Real final sales of domestic product, which measures aggregate demand and is GDP less the

change in real private inventories, increased 2.8 percent during the fourth quarter compared to

2.5 percent during the third quarter. Real final sales are a good measure of future production. If

the growth rate in real final sales exceeds the growth rate for GDP over an extended period of

time, it indicates strong demand and an expansion of the national economy.

Following its meeting on January 28 and 29, the FOMC stated in its press release that “the

Committee continues to see the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions

over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light

of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook

for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the

pace of its asset purchases.” The Committee decided to add $65 billion of asset purchases, down

from the previous $75 billion of asset purchases. The Committee also maintained a target range

for the federal funds rate of 0.00 to 0.25 percent.

Since the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the futures market for the

30-day federal funds rate remains at or below the 0.25 percent level through May 2015. After

that date, the futures market expects the rate to gradually increase to nearly 0.60 percent by the

end of 2015.


4

0.00%

0.25%

0.50%

0.75%

1.00%

1.25%

1.50%

1.75%

2.00%

2.25%

2.50%Ju

l-0

8

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8

Jan-0

9

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-

09

Sep

-09

No

v-0

9

Jan-1

0

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-

10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0

Jan-1

1

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-

11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1

Jan-1

2

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2

Jan-1

3

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-

13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3

Jan-1

4

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan-1

5

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Fed

Fu

nd

s R

ate

Date

Effective Federal Funds Rate (solid bars) and

Federal Funds Futures (hatched bars)

SOURCES: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (solid bars) and the

Chicago Board of Trade (hatched bars) as of February 4, 2014

Sales of existing homes increased 9.2 percent in 2013 following a 9.4 percent increase in

2012. Over a two-year period, sales of existing homes increased from 4.3 million units in 2011

to nearly 9.1 million units in 2013. Median home prices for existing homes increased 11.5

percent in 2013 compared to a 6.4 percent increase in 2012. The inventory-to-sales ratio for new

homes for sale dropped to a 4.9-month inventory in 2013 from 5.9-month inventory the previous

year. The inventory level in 2013 was the lowest since 2005. The improved strength in

residential prices is attributed to an improvement in the job market, low mortgage rates, and the

decline in foreclosures.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, total nonfarm

employment (payroll employment – seasonally adjusted) increased 113,000 in January – less

than market analysts expected. Total private employment rose by 142,000 in January.

Employment in professional and business services added 36,000 jobs in January and added an

average of 55,000 jobs per month in 2013. Construction added 48,000 jobs that more than offset

the decrease of 22,000 in December. Increases in construction occurred in both residential and

nonresidential structures. Federal government employment lost 12,000 jobs in January with

most of the loss was incurred by the U.S. Postal Service (↓9,000 jobs). Total nonfarm

employment increased by approximately 2.264 million in calendar year 2013 – an increase of 1.7

percent from calendar year 2012. However, payroll employment in 2013 was still 1.568 million

below employment in 2007.


5

U.S. Payroll Nonfarm Employment

131,749

134,005

136,398

137,936137,170

131,233130,275

131,842

134,104

136,368

126,000

128,000

130,000

132,000

134,000

136,000

138,000

140,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (p)

Calendar Year

Non

farm

Em

ploy

men

t

(thou

sand

s)

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor

Employment, as measured by the survey of households, increased by 638,000 in January to

145.224 million on a seasonally adjusted basis. Employment reached 143.929 million in

calendar year 2013 – an increase of 1.02 percent from calendar year 2012. However,

employment in 2013 was 2.118 million below employment in 2007. The unemployment rate in

January stood at 6.6 percent (seasonally adjusted). After peaking at 9.6 percent in calendar year

2010, the unemployment rate steadily declined to 7.4 percent in 2013.

U.S. Unemployment Rate

5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6%5.8%

9.3% 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.4%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Calendar Year

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate


The stock market in calendar year 2013 experienced its strongest performance since 2003.

All four stock market indices – the Dow-Jones Industrial Average (↑26.50%), the Standard &

Poor’s 500 (↑29.60%), the NASDAQ (↑38.32%), and the Russell 2000 (↑37.00%) – experienced

dramatic growth. While the four stock indices increased significantly in 2013, the question is


6

whether that strong performance will continue in calendar 2014. The strength of the stock

market has been attributed in part to the policies of the Federal Reserve and its asset purchasing

program. Since the Federal Reserve began to “taper” its asset purchasing program in December,

the question is how quickly the Federal Reserve will continue to “taper” its purchasing program?

The effect of such tapering on the stock market is difficult to assess. However, as of February 7,

all four indices experienced modest declines year-to-date with the Dow Jones Industrial Average

and the Russell 2000 indices declining by more than 4 percent. The issue is whether the modest

correction is attributed to the “tapering” program or the market was due for a correction after its

strong performance last year.

REGIONAL ECONOMY

According to the employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of

Labor, the Washington area economy experienced a different employment pattern compared to

the national trend. Total payroll employment peaked in calendar 2008 but declined for only one

year (2009) before employment began to increase from its 2009 low. By 2013, total payroll

employment reached 3.077 million in the Washington metropolitan area and, unlike the national

trend, surpassed its previous consecutive highs in 2011 and 2012. Since 2009, total payroll

employment increased at an average annual rate of 1.0 percent

Total Nonfarm Employment

(Washington Metropolitan Area)

2,854.9

2,917.4

2,966.92,990.2 3,003.2

2,953.6 2,965.03,007.6

3,039.83,076.5

2,700.0

2,750.0

2,800.0

2,850.0

2,900.0

2,950.0

3,000.0

3,050.0

3,100.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (est.)

Calendar Year

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00s)


Payroll employment for the Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick (BRF) metropolitan division

experienced dramatic growth in calendar year 2013. Total payroll employment stood at

approximately 582,700 − an increase of 14,600 over 2012. The payroll employment in 2013 was

the highest since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began publishing employment data since 1990.


7

Total Nonfarm Employment

(Bethesda-Frederick-Rockville Metro Division)

558.8

569.2

576.2 576.5574.0

560.6 559.5564.1

568.1

582.7

545.0

550.0

555.0

560.0

565.0

570.0

575.0

580.0

585.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (est.)

Calender Year

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00s)


Because payroll employment experienced growth in the past year, the unemployment rate for

the BRF metropolitan division continued to decline from its peak of 6.0 percent in 2010 to 5.2

percent in 2013. The unemployment rate for the division continues to remain one of the lowest

among the 34 national metropolitan divisions.

Unemployment Rate

(Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick Metro Division)

3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%3.3%

5.8% 6.0%5.5% 5.3% 5.2%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

est.

Calendar Year

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate



8

The resale housing market across the region experienced a growth in prices, on a year-over-

year basis, between November 2012 and November of last year. Based on the S&P/Case-

Shiller® Home Price Index for the Washington region, prices in November 2013 increased 7.8

percent over the twelve-month period.

Year-over-Year Percent Change in

S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Index

Washington MSA

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

Jan-

05

Apr

-05

Jul-

05

Oct

-05

Jan-

06

Apr

-06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan-

07

Apr

-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr

-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr

-12

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr

-13

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Month.Year

Y-o

-Y P

ct. C

hg.

NOTE: S&P/Case-Shiller price index is a registered trademark of Standard and Poor's.

As measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), inflation in the

Washington-Baltimore region increased 1.7 percent on a year-over-year basis in November of

last year, i.e., November 2013 over November 2012. Consumer prices excluding food and

energy purchases were up 2.0 percent in the region (on the same year-over-year basis).

Year-over-Year Percent Change in Consumer Price Index

Washington-Baltimore CMSA

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Jan

-06

Mar

-06

May

-06

Jul-

06

Sep

-06

No

v-0

6Ja

n-0

7M

ar-0

7M

ay-0

7Ju

l-0

7S

ep-0

7N

ov

-07

Jan

-08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-

08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8Ja

n-0

9M

ar-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

l-0

9S

ep-0

9N

ov

-09

Jan

-10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-

10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0Ja

n-1

1M

ar-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

l-1

1S

ep-1

1N

ov

-11

Jan

-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2Ja

n-1

3M

ar-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

l-1

3S

ep-1

3N

ov

-13

Y-o

-Y P

ct. C

hg

.

All Items "Core"

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department. of Labor


9

According to the Center for Regional Analysis (CRA) at George Mason University, the

monthly coincident economic indicator for the Washington metropolitan region decreased 0.6

percent in November 2013 over October 2013 and 2.2 percent over November of 2012. The

coincident index measures the current performance of the region’s economy. However, since

reaching its lowest point in February 2010, the index increased 13.1 percent through November

of last year.

Washington MSA Monthly Coincident Economic Indicator

and Six-Month Moving Average

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

130.0

Jan-

01

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Month-Year

Inde

x

Coincident Six_Month

SOURCE: Center for Regional Analysis(CRA), George Mason University

NOTE: Coincident indicator respresents the current state of the economy and includes total

w age and salary employment, consumer confidence, domestic airport passengers, and

purchases of nondurable goods.

CRA also reports that the leading economic indicator increased 2.4 percent in November

2013 over October 2013 but declined 2.0 percent since November 2012. The leading index

measures the economic performance of the region six months ahead. While the index increased

7.1 percent since its lowest level in March 2009, the decline over the one-year period ending in

November suggests that the region’s economy will not increase or, at most, a very modest rate

over the first half of this year.

Washington MSA Monthly Leading Economic Indicator

and Six-Month Moving Average

95.0

97.0

99.0

101.0

103.0

105.0

107.0

109.0

111.0

113.0

Jan-

01

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Month-Year

Inde

x

Leading Six_Month

SOURCE: Center for Regional Analysis(CRA), George Mason University

NOTE: Leading indicator is designed to forecast economic performance six to eight months in

advance and includes residential building permits, consumer expectations, help w anted index, initial

claims for unemployment insurance, and purchases of durable goods.


10

MONTGOMERY COUNTY

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Montgomery County’s economic performance improved during calendar year (CY) 2013.

The major reasons for the improvement were, an increase in employment – both resident (labor

force series) and payroll employment (establishment series), an increase in existing home sales,

an increase in the median sales price for existing homes, and strong residential construction

growth. The unemployment rate declined from 5.1 percent in CY2012 to an estimated 5.0

percent in CY2013.

Employment Situation

Based on data from the Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation (DLLR)

and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, average monthly resident

employment (labor force series and not seasonally adjusted) in Montgomery County increased by

an estimated 3,690 (↑0.7%) during 2013. Average monthly resident employment stood at an

estimated 510,400 in 2013 compared to 506,700 during the previous year.

481.2 492.4

503.5 499.5 502.8 493.5 494.9

501.7 506.7 510.4

400.0

420.0

440.0

460.0

480.0

500.0

520.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 est.

Em

plo

ym

en

t (0

00

s)

Calendar Year

Total Resident Employment

(Montgomery County)

SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor


However, the County’s total payroll employment, as derived by the Department of Finance

incorporating the establishment series from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S.

Department of Labor, for the Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick metropolitan division increased by

approximately 6,130 jobs (↑1.3%) during 2013. Total payroll employment stood at an estimated

monthly average of 481,430 jobs during calendar year 2013 compared to a monthly average of

475,300 in 2012. The modest discrepancy between the series (6,130 versus 3,690) is attributed

to the sources of employment data. The labor force-resident employment is derived from the

survey of households while payroll employment is derived from a survey of establishments.


11

The County’s average monthly unemployment rate declined to an estimated 5.0 percent in

2013 compared to the annual rate of 5.1 percent in 2012. However, throughout the calendar year

2013, the County’s unemployment rate remained one of the lowest in the State and averaged 1.6

percentage points below the State’s average in 2013.

3.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.6%3.2%

5.6% 5.8%5.3% 5.1% 5.0%

4.3% 4.1% 3.8%3.5%

4.3%

7.4%7.8%

7.3%6.8% 6.6%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 est.

Rate

s

Calender Year

Unemployment Rates for Montgomery County and Maryland

Montgomery Maryland

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S.Department of Labor

While the unemployment rate has remained at or above the 5.0 percent level for the past five

calendar years, it has declined steadily since its peak in 2010. The decline has been attributed to

an increase in resident employment and a decline in the number of unemployed during the past

two calendar years. Employment grew by over 8,700 over the two-year period while the number

of unemployed declined by nearly 1,000 over the same period.

Construction Activity

Residential construction experienced strong performance during calendar year 2013. The

total number of new construction starts (residential units) increased 67.9 percent compared to

calendar year 2012. Strong residential construction starts attributed to multifamily and single-

family units added a total value $823.1 million − an increase of 58.7 percent over 2012.


12

4,686

3,424 3,269

3,933

2,134

966

2,036

2,823 2,608

4,379

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Valu

e (

$th

ou

san

ds)

Un

its

Calendar Year

Number of New Residential Starts (Units) and Value (Montgomery County)

Res_Units Res_Value

SOURCES: McGraw-Hill Construction and Montgomery County Department of Finance

However, the number of non-residential starts (projects) decreased 38.4 percent in 2013, and

the total value decreased from $808.3 million to $772.0 million (↓4.5%). Overall, construction

starts added a total value of $1.595 billion to the property tax base with 51.6 percent attributed to

residential construction.

At the same time that the total number of construction starts increased during 2013,

construction costs were up 5.2 percent. The construction cost index developed by the

Engineering News Record (ENR) for the Baltimore area increased 5.1 percent in 2010, 3.0

percent in 2011, and 3.5 percent in 2012. Therefore, while construction activity increased in

2013, that increase was in part due to inflation in construction costs.

Residential Real Estate

Total construction of new residential units increased 67.9 percent from 2012 to 2013. The

number of new single-family units increased 54.3 percent from 1,002 single-family units in 2012

to 1,546 units in 2013. Construction of single-family units in 2013 was the highest number since

2005 – the peak of the recent housing boom. At the same time that the number of total new

residential construction starts increased during 2013, the number of permitted units decreased

10.9 percent in 2013 compared to 2012 attributed to a decrease in planned multi-family

construction (↓30.6%).

During 2013, home sales increased 13.0 percent following an increase of 6.4 percent in 2012

and a decrease of 8.8 percent in 2011. Median sales prices for existing homes increased nearly

9.0 percent which followed an increase of 4.9 percent in 2012 but no increase in 2011.


13

17,753 16,909

13,494

10,3558,519

10,376 10,401 9,490 10,09411,406

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

No

. o

f S

ale

s

Calendar Year

Total Home Sales

Montgomery County

SOURCES: Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc.


Retail Sales

Using sales tax receipts as a measure of retail sales activity in the County, the growth in sales

of durable and nondurable goods, excluding miscellaneous and assessment collections, decreased

0.1 percent through November 2013 compared to the same eleven-month period in 2012.

Purchases of nondurable goods, which include food and beverage, apparel, general merchandise,

and utilities and transportation, decreased 0.7 percent during this period while sales of durable

goods were up 1.6 percent. The decreased in nondurable good purchases was solely attributed to

the decline in general merchandise (↓6.6%). The increase in purchases of durable goods was

attributed to growth in sales of hardware, machinery, and equipment (↑3.0%) and building and

industrial supplies (↑7.5%).

CONCLUSION

The major economic indicators confirm that the County’s economy improved during

calendar year 2013. The average monthly unemployment rate declined to 5.0 percent from the

peak of 5.8 percent in 2010. Employment measured either by the survey of establishments or

households increased in 2013 causing a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.0 percent.

Residential construction improved with the construction of single-family homes up 54.9 percent

and multi-family units up 79.8 percent. Sales of existing homes increased and median sales

prices also improved during the calendar year. The overall inflation rate in the region remained

subdued and retail sales, particularly for purchases of durable goods, were up.


14

SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS Reporting Current Prior Year's Year To-Date Annual

Period Period Period 2013 2012 2012

Leading Indicators

National Dec. '13 0.1% 2.6% n.m.

Washington MSA Nov. '13 2.4% -0.6% 2.1% 1.9%

Coincident Indicators

National Dec. '13 0.2% 2.1% n.m.

Washington MSA Nov. '13 -0.6% 1.9% 2.9% 3.1%

Consumer Confidence Index

National Jan. '14 4.1% 9.3% 15.3% 15.3%

South Atlantic Region Jan. '14 19.7% 7.5% 14.0% 14.0%

Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan) Jan. '14 -1.6% 3.5% 13.6% 13.6%

Consumer Price Index

All Items (nsa)

National Dec. '13 1.5% 1.5% 2.1% 2.1%

Washington - Baltimore CMSA Nov. '13 1.7% 1.5% 2.2% 2.2%

Core CPI (nsa)

National Dec. '13 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1%

Washington - Baltimore CMSA Nov. '13 2.0% 1.8% 2.5% 2.4%

Retail Trade

National (sales - nsa) Dec. '13 4.3% 3.4% 5.1%

Maryland (sales tax)(1) Nov. '13 -8.8% 0.5% 2.8%

Montgomery County (sales tax)(1) Nov. '13 -6.1% -0.6% 1.2%

Employment

Maryland (labor force data - nsa) Dec. '13 2,915,715 2,921,910 2,916,589 2,909,571 2,909,571

- Percent Change -0.2% 0.2% 1.4%

Bethesda-Federick-Gaithersburg (labor force data) Dec. '13 630,304 629,365 632,437 628,245 628,245

- Percent Change 0.1% 0.7% 1.0%

Montgomery County (labor force data) Dec. '13 508,391 507,633 510,400 506,730 506,730


Montgomery County (QCEW) June '13 458,065 455,754 450,725 447,998 450,880


Unemployment

Maryland (nsa) Dec. '13 5.7% 6.6% 6.6% 6.8% 6.8%

Bethesda-Federick-Gaithersburg (nsa) Dec. '13 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 5.3%

Montgomery County (nsa) Dec. '13 4.1% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1%

Construction

Construction Starts - Montgomery County

Total ($ thousands) Dec. '13 $78,274 $121,482 $1,595,054 $1,326,854 $1,326,854

- Percent Change -35.6% 20.2% -5.6%

Residential ($ thousands) Dec. '13 $66,744 $60,527 $823,039 $518,508 $518,508

- Percent Change 10.3% 58.7% 5.2%

Non-Residential ($ thousands) Dec. '13 $11,530 $60,955 $772,015 $808,346 $808,346

- Percent Change -81.1% -4.5% -11.4%

Building Permits (Residential)

Maryland Dec. '13 1,173 1,391 18,138 14,646 14,646

- Percent Change -15.7% 23.8% 20.1%

Montgomery County (units) Dec. '13 254 473 3,514 3,946 3,946

- Percent Change -46.3% -10.9% 55.9%

Building Permits (Non-Residential)

Montgomery County Dec. '13 157 118 2,060 2,198 2,198

- Percent Change 33.1% -6.3% 13.5%

Construction Cost Index Feb. '14 6,929.69 6,943.18 6,935.72 6,616.13 6,616.13

Baltimore -0.2% 4.8% 3.5%

Real Estate

Case-Shiller Home Price Index® Nov. '13 203.71 188.93 197.88 184.47 185.62

7.8% 7.3% 2.1%

Maryland

Sales Dec. '13 4,854 4,398 61,073 54,068 54,068

- Percent Change 10.4% 13.0% 4.7%

Median Price Dec. '13 $255,183 $243,741 $257,546 $243,863 $243,863


Montgomery County

Sales Jan. '14 578 521 11,406 10,094 10,094

- Percent Change 10.9% 13.0% 6.4%

Average Price Jan. '14 $474,158 $451,677 $500,316 $465,597 $465,597


Median Price Jan. '14 $375,000 $365,500 $400,000 $367,125 $367,125


Average Days on the Market Jan. '14 57 69 46 67 67

NOTES:

(nsa): not seasonally adjusted

(QCEW): Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

(saar): seasonally adjusted at annual rate

(1): Data include miscellaneous and assessment collections.

(n.m.): not meaningful

Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014 · Montgomery County Quarterly...

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