Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
1
The purpose of this report is to keep policy makers apprised of changes in
the national and local economies that
the Montgomery County Department of Finance
believes may impact current and/or future revenues and expenditures.
This report is also available through the Internet
on the Montgomery County Web Page:
http://www.montgomerycountymd.gov
For questions regarding this report, please contact:
David Platt
Chief Economist
Montgomery County Department of Finance
101 Monroe Street, 15th
Floor
Rockville, Maryland 20850
Phone: (240) 777-8866
Email: [email protected]
Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
2
NATIONAL ECONOMY
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce, gross
domestic product (GDP) increased at 3.2 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate during the
fourth quarter of 2013. That increase follows sixteen out of seventeen quarters of growth since
the end of the recession in June 2009. Based on the January Wall Street Journal (WSJ) survey
(January 10 -14), fifty economists surveyed expect economic growth to increase 2.8 percent for
calendar year 2014 and 2.9 percent for calendar year 2015. The survey of economists expects
the jobless rate to be at 6.6 percent by June, 6.3 percent at the end of 2014, and 5.5 at the end of
2016. The result of the survey of economists shows that inflation pressures, as measured by the
consumer price index (CPI), will remain below 2.0 percent throughout 2014, and gradually
increase to 2.3 percent by December 2016.
Subsequent to the January 28-29 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC,
Committee) of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Committee “expects
that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace
and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent
with its dual mandate.”
Both the WSJ January survey of economists and the economic projection by the FOMC in
December suggest that the unemployment will gradually decrease to 5.5 percent by the end of
2016 and inflation, as measured by either the CPI or the PCE indices, will increase slightly to 2.3
percent (CPI) or 2.0 percent (PCE). In either case, inflation will remain subdued over the next
three years while unemployment will decrease.
Data released by BEA for the fourth quarter showed that the increase in real GDP was largely
attributed to an increase in personal consumption expenditures (↑3.3% - up from the 2.0% during
the third quarter of last year), exports (↑11.4% - up from the 3.9% during the third quarter),
nonresidential fixed investment (↑3.8% compared to 4.8% during the third quarter). The
deceleration in the fourth quarter reflected a deceleration in private inventory investment which
added 0.42 percent point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 1.67 percentage
points to the third-quarter change of 4.1 percent.
Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
3
-2.7%
2.0%
-2.0%
-8.3%
-5.4%
-0.4%
1.3%
3.9%
1.6%
3.9%
2.8% 2.8%
-1.3%
3.2%
1.4%
4.9%
3.7%
1.2%
2.8%
0.1%
1.1%
2.5%
4.1%3.2%
2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2008
:I
2008
:II
2008
:III
2008
:IV
2009
:I
2009
:II
2009
:III
2009
:IV
2010
:I
2010
:II
2010
:III
2010
:IV
2011
:I
2011
:II
2011
:III
2011
:IV
2012
:I
2012
:II
2012
:III
2012
:IV
2013
:I
2013
:II
2013
:III
2013
:IV
(adv
.)
2014
:I (e
st.)
2014
:II (
est.)
2014
:III
(est
.)
2014
:IV
(est
.)
Per
cent
Cha
nge
Year:Quarter
Percent Change in Real GDP
SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Hatched bars from Wall Street Journal
survey conducted January 10-14.
NOTE: Percent changes are at annual rates.
Real final sales of domestic product, which measures aggregate demand and is GDP less the
change in real private inventories, increased 2.8 percent during the fourth quarter compared to
2.5 percent during the third quarter. Real final sales are a good measure of future production. If
the growth rate in real final sales exceeds the growth rate for GDP over an extended period of
time, it indicates strong demand and an expansion of the national economy.
Following its meeting on January 28 and 29, the FOMC stated in its press release that “the
Committee continues to see the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions
over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light
of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook
for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the
pace of its asset purchases.” The Committee decided to add $65 billion of asset purchases, down
from the previous $75 billion of asset purchases. The Committee also maintained a target range
for the federal funds rate of 0.00 to 0.25 percent.
Since the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the futures market for the
30-day federal funds rate remains at or below the 0.25 percent level through May 2015. After
that date, the futures market expects the rate to gradually increase to nearly 0.60 percent by the
end of 2015.
Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
4
0.00%
0.25%
0.50%
0.75%
1.00%
1.25%
1.50%
1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%Ju
l-0
8
Sep
-08
No
v-0
8
Jan-0
9
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
No
v-0
9
Jan-1
0
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan-1
1
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan-1
2
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan-1
3
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Jan-1
4
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Jan-1
5
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-
15
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Fed
Fu
nd
s R
ate
Date
Effective Federal Funds Rate (solid bars) and
Federal Funds Futures (hatched bars)
SOURCES: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (solid bars) and the
Chicago Board of Trade (hatched bars) as of February 4, 2014
Sales of existing homes increased 9.2 percent in 2013 following a 9.4 percent increase in
2012. Over a two-year period, sales of existing homes increased from 4.3 million units in 2011
to nearly 9.1 million units in 2013. Median home prices for existing homes increased 11.5
percent in 2013 compared to a 6.4 percent increase in 2012. The inventory-to-sales ratio for new
homes for sale dropped to a 4.9-month inventory in 2013 from 5.9-month inventory the previous
year. The inventory level in 2013 was the lowest since 2005. The improved strength in
residential prices is attributed to an improvement in the job market, low mortgage rates, and the
decline in foreclosures.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, total nonfarm
employment (payroll employment – seasonally adjusted) increased 113,000 in January – less
than market analysts expected. Total private employment rose by 142,000 in January.
Employment in professional and business services added 36,000 jobs in January and added an
average of 55,000 jobs per month in 2013. Construction added 48,000 jobs that more than offset
the decrease of 22,000 in December. Increases in construction occurred in both residential and
nonresidential structures. Federal government employment lost 12,000 jobs in January with
most of the loss was incurred by the U.S. Postal Service (↓9,000 jobs). Total nonfarm
employment increased by approximately 2.264 million in calendar year 2013 – an increase of 1.7
percent from calendar year 2012. However, payroll employment in 2013 was still 1.568 million
below employment in 2007.
Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
5
U.S. Payroll Nonfarm Employment
131,749
134,005
136,398
137,936137,170
131,233130,275
131,842
134,104
136,368
126,000
128,000
130,000
132,000
134,000
136,000
138,000
140,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (p)
Calendar Year
Non
farm
Em
ploy
men
t
(thou
sand
s)
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Employment, as measured by the survey of households, increased by 638,000 in January to
145.224 million on a seasonally adjusted basis. Employment reached 143.929 million in
calendar year 2013 – an increase of 1.02 percent from calendar year 2012. However,
employment in 2013 was 2.118 million below employment in 2007. The unemployment rate in
January stood at 6.6 percent (seasonally adjusted). After peaking at 9.6 percent in calendar year
2010, the unemployment rate steadily declined to 7.4 percent in 2013.
U.S. Unemployment Rate
5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6%5.8%
9.3% 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.4%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Calendar Year
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
The stock market in calendar year 2013 experienced its strongest performance since 2003.
All four stock market indices – the Dow-Jones Industrial Average (↑26.50%), the Standard &
Poor’s 500 (↑29.60%), the NASDAQ (↑38.32%), and the Russell 2000 (↑37.00%) – experienced
dramatic growth. While the four stock indices increased significantly in 2013, the question is
Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
6
whether that strong performance will continue in calendar 2014. The strength of the stock
market has been attributed in part to the policies of the Federal Reserve and its asset purchasing
program. Since the Federal Reserve began to “taper” its asset purchasing program in December,
the question is how quickly the Federal Reserve will continue to “taper” its purchasing program?
The effect of such tapering on the stock market is difficult to assess. However, as of February 7,
all four indices experienced modest declines year-to-date with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
and the Russell 2000 indices declining by more than 4 percent. The issue is whether the modest
correction is attributed to the “tapering” program or the market was due for a correction after its
strong performance last year.
REGIONAL ECONOMY
According to the employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor, the Washington area economy experienced a different employment pattern compared to
the national trend. Total payroll employment peaked in calendar 2008 but declined for only one
year (2009) before employment began to increase from its 2009 low. By 2013, total payroll
employment reached 3.077 million in the Washington metropolitan area and, unlike the national
trend, surpassed its previous consecutive highs in 2011 and 2012. Since 2009, total payroll
employment increased at an average annual rate of 1.0 percent
Total Nonfarm Employment
(Washington Metropolitan Area)
2,854.9
2,917.4
2,966.92,990.2 3,003.2
2,953.6 2,965.03,007.6
3,039.83,076.5
2,700.0
2,750.0
2,800.0
2,850.0
2,900.0
2,950.0
3,000.0
3,050.0
3,100.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (est.)
Calendar Year
Em
plo
ym
en
t (0
00s)
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Payroll employment for the Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick (BRF) metropolitan division
experienced dramatic growth in calendar year 2013. Total payroll employment stood at
approximately 582,700 − an increase of 14,600 over 2012. The payroll employment in 2013 was
the highest since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began publishing employment data since 1990.
Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
7
Total Nonfarm Employment
(Bethesda-Frederick-Rockville Metro Division)
558.8
569.2
576.2 576.5574.0
560.6 559.5564.1
568.1
582.7
545.0
550.0
555.0
560.0
565.0
570.0
575.0
580.0
585.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (est.)
Calender Year
Em
plo
ym
en
t (0
00s)
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Because payroll employment experienced growth in the past year, the unemployment rate for
the BRF metropolitan division continued to decline from its peak of 6.0 percent in 2010 to 5.2
percent in 2013. The unemployment rate for the division continues to remain one of the lowest
among the 34 national metropolitan divisions.
Unemployment Rate
(Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick Metro Division)
3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.7%3.3%
5.8% 6.0%5.5% 5.3% 5.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
est.
Calendar Year
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
8
The resale housing market across the region experienced a growth in prices, on a year-over-
year basis, between November 2012 and November of last year. Based on the S&P/Case-
Shiller® Home Price Index for the Washington region, prices in November 2013 increased 7.8
percent over the twelve-month period.
Year-over-Year Percent Change in
S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Index
Washington MSA
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Jan-
05
Apr
-05
Jul-
05
Oct
-05
Jan-
06
Apr
-06
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan-
07
Apr
-07
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08
Apr
-08
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan-
09
Apr
-09
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10
Apr
-10
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan-
11
Apr
-11
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan-
12
Apr
-12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr
-13
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Month.Year
Y-o
-Y P
ct. C
hg.
NOTE: S&P/Case-Shiller price index is a registered trademark of Standard and Poor's.
As measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), inflation in the
Washington-Baltimore region increased 1.7 percent on a year-over-year basis in November of
last year, i.e., November 2013 over November 2012. Consumer prices excluding food and
energy purchases were up 2.0 percent in the region (on the same year-over-year basis).
Year-over-Year Percent Change in Consumer Price Index
Washington-Baltimore CMSA
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Jan
-06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-
06
Sep
-06
No
v-0
6Ja
n-0
7M
ar-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
l-0
7S
ep-0
7N
ov
-07
Jan
-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-
08
Sep
-08
No
v-0
8Ja
n-0
9M
ar-0
9M
ay-0
9Ju
l-0
9S
ep-0
9N
ov
-09
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0Ja
n-1
1M
ar-1
1M
ay-1
1Ju
l-1
1S
ep-1
1N
ov
-11
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2Ja
n-1
3M
ar-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
l-1
3S
ep-1
3N
ov
-13
Y-o
-Y P
ct. C
hg
.
All Items "Core"
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department. of Labor
Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
9
According to the Center for Regional Analysis (CRA) at George Mason University, the
monthly coincident economic indicator for the Washington metropolitan region decreased 0.6
percent in November 2013 over October 2013 and 2.2 percent over November of 2012. The
coincident index measures the current performance of the region’s economy. However, since
reaching its lowest point in February 2010, the index increased 13.1 percent through November
of last year.
Washington MSA Monthly Coincident Economic Indicator
and Six-Month Moving Average
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Month-Year
Inde
x
Coincident Six_Month
SOURCE: Center for Regional Analysis(CRA), George Mason University
NOTE: Coincident indicator respresents the current state of the economy and includes total
w age and salary employment, consumer confidence, domestic airport passengers, and
purchases of nondurable goods.
CRA also reports that the leading economic indicator increased 2.4 percent in November
2013 over October 2013 but declined 2.0 percent since November 2012. The leading index
measures the economic performance of the region six months ahead. While the index increased
7.1 percent since its lowest level in March 2009, the decline over the one-year period ending in
November suggests that the region’s economy will not increase or, at most, a very modest rate
over the first half of this year.
Washington MSA Monthly Leading Economic Indicator
and Six-Month Moving Average
95.0
97.0
99.0
101.0
103.0
105.0
107.0
109.0
111.0
113.0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Month-Year
Inde
x
Leading Six_Month
SOURCE: Center for Regional Analysis(CRA), George Mason University
NOTE: Leading indicator is designed to forecast economic performance six to eight months in
advance and includes residential building permits, consumer expectations, help w anted index, initial
claims for unemployment insurance, and purchases of durable goods.
Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
10
MONTGOMERY COUNTY
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Montgomery County’s economic performance improved during calendar year (CY) 2013.
The major reasons for the improvement were, an increase in employment – both resident (labor
force series) and payroll employment (establishment series), an increase in existing home sales,
an increase in the median sales price for existing homes, and strong residential construction
growth. The unemployment rate declined from 5.1 percent in CY2012 to an estimated 5.0
percent in CY2013.
Employment Situation
Based on data from the Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation (DLLR)
and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, average monthly resident
employment (labor force series and not seasonally adjusted) in Montgomery County increased by
an estimated 3,690 (↑0.7%) during 2013. Average monthly resident employment stood at an
estimated 510,400 in 2013 compared to 506,700 during the previous year.
481.2 492.4
503.5 499.5 502.8 493.5 494.9
501.7 506.7 510.4
400.0
420.0
440.0
460.0
480.0
500.0
520.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 est.
Em
plo
ym
en
t (0
00
s)
Calendar Year
Total Resident Employment
(Montgomery County)
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Montgomery County Department of Finance
However, the County’s total payroll employment, as derived by the Department of Finance
incorporating the establishment series from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S.
Department of Labor, for the Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick metropolitan division increased by
approximately 6,130 jobs (↑1.3%) during 2013. Total payroll employment stood at an estimated
monthly average of 481,430 jobs during calendar year 2013 compared to a monthly average of
475,300 in 2012. The modest discrepancy between the series (6,130 versus 3,690) is attributed
to the sources of employment data. The labor force-resident employment is derived from the
survey of households while payroll employment is derived from a survey of establishments.
Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
11
The County’s average monthly unemployment rate declined to an estimated 5.0 percent in
2013 compared to the annual rate of 5.1 percent in 2012. However, throughout the calendar year
2013, the County’s unemployment rate remained one of the lowest in the State and averaged 1.6
percentage points below the State’s average in 2013.
3.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.6%3.2%
5.6% 5.8%5.3% 5.1% 5.0%
4.3% 4.1% 3.8%3.5%
4.3%
7.4%7.8%
7.3%6.8% 6.6%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 est.
Rate
s
Calender Year
Unemployment Rates for Montgomery County and Maryland
Montgomery Maryland
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S.Department of Labor
While the unemployment rate has remained at or above the 5.0 percent level for the past five
calendar years, it has declined steadily since its peak in 2010. The decline has been attributed to
an increase in resident employment and a decline in the number of unemployed during the past
two calendar years. Employment grew by over 8,700 over the two-year period while the number
of unemployed declined by nearly 1,000 over the same period.
Construction Activity
Residential construction experienced strong performance during calendar year 2013. The
total number of new construction starts (residential units) increased 67.9 percent compared to
calendar year 2012. Strong residential construction starts attributed to multifamily and single-
family units added a total value $823.1 million − an increase of 58.7 percent over 2012.
Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
12
4,686
3,424 3,269
3,933
2,134
966
2,036
2,823 2,608
4,379
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Valu
e (
$th
ou
san
ds)
Un
its
Calendar Year
Number of New Residential Starts (Units) and Value (Montgomery County)
Res_Units Res_Value
SOURCES: McGraw-Hill Construction and Montgomery County Department of Finance
However, the number of non-residential starts (projects) decreased 38.4 percent in 2013, and
the total value decreased from $808.3 million to $772.0 million (↓4.5%). Overall, construction
starts added a total value of $1.595 billion to the property tax base with 51.6 percent attributed to
residential construction.
At the same time that the total number of construction starts increased during 2013,
construction costs were up 5.2 percent. The construction cost index developed by the
Engineering News Record (ENR) for the Baltimore area increased 5.1 percent in 2010, 3.0
percent in 2011, and 3.5 percent in 2012. Therefore, while construction activity increased in
2013, that increase was in part due to inflation in construction costs.
Residential Real Estate
Total construction of new residential units increased 67.9 percent from 2012 to 2013. The
number of new single-family units increased 54.3 percent from 1,002 single-family units in 2012
to 1,546 units in 2013. Construction of single-family units in 2013 was the highest number since
2005 – the peak of the recent housing boom. At the same time that the number of total new
residential construction starts increased during 2013, the number of permitted units decreased
10.9 percent in 2013 compared to 2012 attributed to a decrease in planned multi-family
construction (↓30.6%).
During 2013, home sales increased 13.0 percent following an increase of 6.4 percent in 2012
and a decrease of 8.8 percent in 2011. Median sales prices for existing homes increased nearly
9.0 percent which followed an increase of 4.9 percent in 2012 but no increase in 2011.
Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
13
17,753 16,909
13,494
10,3558,519
10,376 10,401 9,490 10,09411,406
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
No
. o
f S
ale
s
Calendar Year
Total Home Sales
Montgomery County
SOURCES: Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc.
Montgomery County Department of Finance
Retail Sales
Using sales tax receipts as a measure of retail sales activity in the County, the growth in sales
of durable and nondurable goods, excluding miscellaneous and assessment collections, decreased
0.1 percent through November 2013 compared to the same eleven-month period in 2012.
Purchases of nondurable goods, which include food and beverage, apparel, general merchandise,
and utilities and transportation, decreased 0.7 percent during this period while sales of durable
goods were up 1.6 percent. The decreased in nondurable good purchases was solely attributed to
the decline in general merchandise (↓6.6%). The increase in purchases of durable goods was
attributed to growth in sales of hardware, machinery, and equipment (↑3.0%) and building and
industrial supplies (↑7.5%).
CONCLUSION
The major economic indicators confirm that the County’s economy improved during
calendar year 2013. The average monthly unemployment rate declined to 5.0 percent from the
peak of 5.8 percent in 2010. Employment measured either by the survey of establishments or
households increased in 2013 causing a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.0 percent.
Residential construction improved with the construction of single-family homes up 54.9 percent
and multi-family units up 79.8 percent. Sales of existing homes increased and median sales
prices also improved during the calendar year. The overall inflation rate in the region remained
subdued and retail sales, particularly for purchases of durable goods, were up.
Montgomery County Quarterly Economic Indicators February 2014
14
SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS Reporting Current Prior Year's Year To-Date Annual
Period Period Period 2013 2012 2012
Leading Indicators
National Dec. '13 0.1% 2.6% n.m.
Washington MSA Nov. '13 2.4% -0.6% 2.1% 1.9%
Coincident Indicators
National Dec. '13 0.2% 2.1% n.m.
Washington MSA Nov. '13 -0.6% 1.9% 2.9% 3.1%
Consumer Confidence Index
National Jan. '14 4.1% 9.3% 15.3% 15.3%
South Atlantic Region Jan. '14 19.7% 7.5% 14.0% 14.0%
Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan) Jan. '14 -1.6% 3.5% 13.6% 13.6%
Consumer Price Index
All Items (nsa)
National Dec. '13 1.5% 1.5% 2.1% 2.1%
Washington - Baltimore CMSA Nov. '13 1.7% 1.5% 2.2% 2.2%
Core CPI (nsa)
National Dec. '13 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1%
Washington - Baltimore CMSA Nov. '13 2.0% 1.8% 2.5% 2.4%
Retail Trade
National (sales - nsa) Dec. '13 4.3% 3.4% 5.1%
Maryland (sales tax)(1) Nov. '13 -8.8% 0.5% 2.8%
Montgomery County (sales tax)(1) Nov. '13 -6.1% -0.6% 1.2%
Employment
Maryland (labor force data - nsa) Dec. '13 2,915,715 2,921,910 2,916,589 2,909,571 2,909,571
- Percent Change -0.2% 0.2% 1.4%
Bethesda-Federick-Gaithersburg (labor force data) Dec. '13 630,304 629,365 632,437 628,245 628,245
- Percent Change 0.1% 0.7% 1.0%
Montgomery County (labor force data) Dec. '13 508,391 507,633 510,400 506,730 506,730
- Percent Change 0.1% 0.7% 1.0%
Montgomery County (QCEW) June '13 458,065 455,754 450,725 447,998 450,880
- Percent Change 0.5% 0.6% 0.7%
Unemployment
Maryland (nsa) Dec. '13 5.7% 6.6% 6.6% 6.8% 6.8%
Bethesda-Federick-Gaithersburg (nsa) Dec. '13 4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 5.3%
Montgomery County (nsa) Dec. '13 4.1% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1%
Construction
Construction Starts - Montgomery County
Total ($ thousands) Dec. '13 $78,274 $121,482 $1,595,054 $1,326,854 $1,326,854
- Percent Change -35.6% 20.2% -5.6%
Residential ($ thousands) Dec. '13 $66,744 $60,527 $823,039 $518,508 $518,508
- Percent Change 10.3% 58.7% 5.2%
Non-Residential ($ thousands) Dec. '13 $11,530 $60,955 $772,015 $808,346 $808,346
- Percent Change -81.1% -4.5% -11.4%
Building Permits (Residential)
Maryland Dec. '13 1,173 1,391 18,138 14,646 14,646
- Percent Change -15.7% 23.8% 20.1%
Montgomery County (units) Dec. '13 254 473 3,514 3,946 3,946
- Percent Change -46.3% -10.9% 55.9%
Building Permits (Non-Residential)
Montgomery County Dec. '13 157 118 2,060 2,198 2,198
- Percent Change 33.1% -6.3% 13.5%
Construction Cost Index Feb. '14 6,929.69 6,943.18 6,935.72 6,616.13 6,616.13
Baltimore -0.2% 4.8% 3.5%
Real Estate
Case-Shiller Home Price Index® Nov. '13 203.71 188.93 197.88 184.47 185.62
7.8% 7.3% 2.1%
Maryland
Sales Dec. '13 4,854 4,398 61,073 54,068 54,068
- Percent Change 10.4% 13.0% 4.7%
Median Price Dec. '13 $255,183 $243,741 $257,546 $243,863 $243,863
- Percent Change 4.7% 5.6% 7.1%
Montgomery County
Sales Jan. '14 578 521 11,406 10,094 10,094
- Percent Change 10.9% 13.0% 6.4%
Average Price Jan. '14 $474,158 $451,677 $500,316 $465,597 $465,597
- Percent Change 5.0% 7.5% 3.1%
Median Price Jan. '14 $375,000 $365,500 $400,000 $367,125 $367,125
- Percent Change 2.6% 9.0% 4.9%
Average Days on the Market Jan. '14 57 69 46 67 67
NOTES:
(nsa): not seasonally adjusted
(QCEW): Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
(saar): seasonally adjusted at annual rate
(1): Data include miscellaneous and assessment collections.
(n.m.): not meaningful
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