DG AGRI DASHBOARD: CEREALS - CIRCABC - … AGRI DASHBOARD: CEREALS Sources : European Commission (DG...
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DG AGRI DASHBOARD: CEREALS Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG JRC, DG AGRI, DG TAXUD), European Central Bank, IGC, ICE, The Baltic Exchange, CME, MATIF, France Agrimer Last update: 24.05.2018 Prices Production & Stocks Trade Weather & crops conditions EU (milling) & US (SRW) wheat futures - 60 days CME US maize & soybeans futures - 60 days Monthly avg: currency - oil - freight €/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t US Gulf (SRW) 196 230 10% 6% 23% 28% US Gulf (HRW) 217 254 11% 6% 21% 26% EU Rouen (grade 1) 176 206 5% 0% 5% 10% CA St Lawrence (CWAD) n.q. n.q. - - - - EU Port-la-Nouvelle n.q. n.q. - - - - Black sea (feed) 175 205 -2% -6% 22% 28% EU Rouen (feed) 176 206 2% -2% 17% 23% US Gulf (3YC) 165 193 4% 0% 14% 20% EU Bordeaux 173 202 4% 0% 1% 6% soybeans US Gulf (2Y) 346 405 3% -2% 6% 11% maize 23 May 2018 m/m variation y/y variation Export prices FOB durum wheat wheat barley 130 145 160 175 190 205 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 24/03 03/04 13/04 23/04 03/05 13/05 23/05 €/t Euronext milling wheat futures Daily Volume SEP'19: 183 MAR'18: 185 SEP'18: 179 Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tons) 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 0 150 300 450 600 750 900 1050 1200 24/03 03/04 13/04 23/04 03/05 13/05 23/05 $/t CME Maize futures Daily volume JUL'19: 174 DEC'18: 168 JUL'18: 161 Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tons) 191 173 179 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 €/t Wheat - monthly avg. export prices (fob) US Gulf EU Rouen Black Sea 163 171 169 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 €/t Maize - monthly avg. export prices (fob) US Gulf EU Bordeaux Black Sea 2088 1054 739 355 0 1000 2000 3000 cereals maize wheat soybeans World production (million tonnes) 2015/16 2016/17 (est) 2017/18 (f'cast) 2018/19 (proj.) 306 142 64 61 0 100 200 300 400 cereals wheat maize barley EU production (million tonnes) 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (est) 2018/19 (f'cast) 560 262 257 40 0 200 400 600 800 cereals maize wheat soybeans World stocks (million tonnes) 2015/16 2016/17 (est) 2017/18 (f'cast) 2018/19 (proj.) 47 15 21 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 cereals wheat maize barley EU stocks (million tonnes) 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (est) 2018/19 (f'cast) 77 40 50 70 80 May-17 Aug -17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Brent Crude Oil $/barrel 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 24/03 03/04 13/04 23/04 03/05 13/05 23/05 $/t Chicago (CME) SRW futures JUL'18: 195 DEC'18: 209 JUL'19: 220 Daily volume Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tons) 350 360 370 380 390 400 410 420 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 24/03 03/04 13/04 23/04 03/05 13/05 23/05 $/t Chicago soybeans futures Daily volume JUL'18: 382 AUG'18: 383 SEP'18: 384 Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136tons) 1407 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Freight (Baltic dry index) 1.19 1.03 1.07 1.11 1.15 1.19 1.23 1.27 May-17 Aug -17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Exchange rate € vs $ $ Wheat imports Coarse grain imports Wheat exports Coarse grain exports Trade balance 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Million tonnes Marketing Year (July-June) Cereals: 17 marketing years trade evolution (EU28 countries) 2016/17 25.1 0 10 20 30 0 300 600 900 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Total MY - million tonnes Weekly volume - thousand tonnes w eek Common wheat & flour - exports 2017/18 18.7Mt Weekly volume (current MY) 2016/17 8.4 0 4 8 12 0 200 400 600 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Total MY - million tonnes Weekly volume - thousand tonnes w eek Barley, malt included - exports 2017/18 7.5Mt Weekly volume (current MY) 2016/17 13.1 0 4 8 12 16 0 200 400 600 800 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 Total MY - million tonnes Weekly volume - thousand tonnes w eek Maize - imports 2017/18 15.4Mt Weekly volume (current MY)
Transcript of DG AGRI DASHBOARD: CEREALS - CIRCABC - … AGRI DASHBOARD: CEREALS Sources : European Commission (DG...
DG AGRI DASHBOARD: CEREALS
Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG JRC, DG AGRI, DG TAXUD), European Central Bank, IGC, ICE, The Baltic Exchange, CME, MATIF, France Agrimer
Last update: 24.05.2018P
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EU (milling) & US (SRW) wheat futures - 60 days CME US maize & soybeans futures - 60 days Monthly avg: currency - oil - freight
€/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t
US Gulf (SRW) 196 230 10% 6% 23% 28%
US Gulf (HRW) 217 254 11% 6% 21% 26%
EU Rouen (grade 1) 176 206 5% 0% 5% 10%
CA St Lawrence (CWAD) n.q. n.q. - - - -
EU Port-la-Nouvelle n.q. n.q. - - - -
Black sea (feed) 175 205 -2% -6% 22% 28%
EU Rouen (feed) 176 206 2% -2% 17% 23%
US Gulf (3YC) 165 193 4% 0% 14% 20%
EU Bordeaux 173 202 4% 0% 1% 6%
soybeans US Gulf (2Y) 346 405 3% -2% 6% 11%
maize
23 May 2018 m/m variation y/y variationExport prices FOB
durum
wheat
wheat
barley
130
145
160
175
190
205
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
24/03 03/04 13/04 23/04 03/05 13/05 23/05
€/t
Euronext milling wheat futures
Daily Volume
SEP'19: 183
MAR'18: 185
SEP'18: 179
Dai
ly t
rad
ed v
olu
me
(10
00
co
ntr
acts
of
50
to
ns)
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1200
24/03 03/04 13/04 23/04 03/05 13/05 23/05
$/t
CME Maize futures
Daily volume
JUL'19: 174
DEC'18: 168
JUL'18: 161
Dai
ly t
rad
ed v
olu
me
(10
00
co
ntr
acts
of
12
7 t
on
s)
191
173
179
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18
€/t Wheat - monthly avg. export prices (fob)
US Gulf EU Rouen Black Sea
163
171
169
125
135
145
155
165
175
185
May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18
€/t Maize - monthly avg. export prices (fob)
US Gulf EU Bordeaux Black Sea
2088
1054739
355
0
1000
2000
3000
cereals maize wheat soybeans
World production (million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 (est) 2017/18 (f'cast) 2018/19 (proj.)
306
142
64 61
0
100
200
300
400
cereals wheat maize barley
EU production (million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (est) 2018/19 (f'cast)
560
262257
40
0
200
400
600
800
cereals maize wheat soybeans
World stocks (million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 (est) 2017/18 (f'cast) 2018/19 (proj.)
47
15 21
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
cereals wheat maize barley
EU stocks (million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (est) 2018/19 (f'cast)
77
40
50
60
70
80
May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18
Brent Crude Oil $/barrel
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
24/03 03/04 13/04 23/04 03/05 13/05 23/05
$/t
Chicago (CME) SRW futures
JUL'18: 195
DEC'18: 209
JUL'19: 220
Daily volume
Dai
ly t
rad
ed v
olu
me
(10
00
co
ntr
acts
of
13
6 t
on
s)
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
24/03 03/04 13/04 23/04 03/05 13/05 23/05
$/t
Chicago soybeans futures
Daily volume
JUL'18: 382
AUG'18: 383
SEP'18: 384
Dai
ly t
rad
ed v
olu
me
(10
00
co
ntr
acts
of
13
6to
ns)
1407
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18
Freight (Baltic dry index)
1.19
1.03
1.07
1.11
1.15
1.19
1.23
1.27
May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18
Exchange rate € vs $ $
Wheat imports
Coarse grain imports
Wheat exports
Coarse grain exports
Trade balance
30
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mil
lio
n to
nn
es
Marketing Year (July-June)
Cereals: 17 marketing years trade evolution (EU28 countries)
2016/17 25.1
0
10
20
30
0
300
600
900
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
To
tal
MY
-m
illi
on
to
nn
es
Week
ly v
olu
me -
tho
usan
d to
nn
es
w eek
Common wheat & flour - exports
2017/18 18.7Mt
Weeklyvolume
(current MY)
2016/17
8.4
0
4
8
12
0
200
400
600
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
To
tal
MY -
mil
lio
n to
nn
es
We
ek
ly v
olu
me
-th
ou
san
d to
nn
es
w eek
Barley, malt included - exports
2017/18 7.5Mt
Weeklyvolume
(current MY)
2016/17
13.1
0
4
8
12
16
0
200
400
600
800
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
To
tal
MY -
mil
lio
n to
nn
es
Week
ly v
olu
me -
tho
usan
d t
on
nes
w eek
Maize - imports
2017/18 15.4Mt
Weeklyvolume
(current MY)
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€/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t
US Gulf (SRW) 196 230 10% 6% 23% 28%
US Gulf (HRW) 217 254 11% 6% 21% 26%
EU Rouen (grade 1) 176 206 5% 0% 5% 10%
CA St Lawrence (CWAD) n.q. n.q. - - - -
EU Port-la-Nouvelle n.q. n.q. - - - -
Black sea (feed) 175 205 -2% -6% 22% 28%
EU Rouen (feed) 176 206 2% -2% 17% 23%
US Gulf (3YC) 165 193 4% 0% 14% 20%
EU Bordeaux 173 202 4% 0% 1% 6%
soybeans US Gulf (2Y) 346 405 3% -2% 6% 11%
maize
23 May 2018 m/m variation y/y variationExport prices FOB
durum
wheat
wheat
barley
Sources: International Grains Council, France Agrimer
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191
173
179
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18
€/t Wheat - monthly avg. export prices (fob)
US Gulf EU Rouen Black Sea
Source: International Grains Council
\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64
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163
171
169
125
135
145
155
165
175
185
May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18
€/t Maize - monthly avg. export prices (fob)
US Gulf EU Bordeaux Black Sea
Sources: International Grains Council, France Agrimer
\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64
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2088
1054739
355
0
1000
2000
3000
cereals maize wheat soybeans
World production (million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 (est) 2017/18 (f'cast) 2018/19 (proj.)Source: International Grains Council
\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64
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306
142
64 61
0
100
200
300
400
cereals wheat maize barley
EU production (million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (est) 2018/19 (f'cast)Source: European Commission – DG AGRI
\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64
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560
262257
40
0
200
400
600
800
cereals maize wheat soybeans
World stocks (million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 (est) 2017/18 (f'cast) 2018/19 (proj.)Source: International Grains Council
\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64
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47
15 21
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
cereals wheat maize barley
EU stocks (million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (est) 2018/19 (f'cast)Source: European Commission – DG AGRI
\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64
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130
145
160
175
190
205
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
24/03 03/04 13/04 23/04 03/05 13/05 23/05
€/t
Euronext milling wheat futures
Daily Volume
SEP'19: 183
MAR'18: 185
SEP'18: 179
Dai
ly t
rad
ed v
olu
me
(10
00
co
ntr
acts
of
50
to
ns)
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
24/03 03/04 13/04 23/04 03/05 13/05 23/05
$/t
Chicago (CME) SRW futures
JUL'18: 195
DEC'18: 209
JUL'19: 220
Daily volume
Dai
ly t
rad
ed v
olu
me
(10
00
co
ntr
acts
of
13
6 t
on
s)
EU (milling) & US (SRW) wheat futures - 60 days
Source: MATIF Source: CME
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140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1200
24/03 03/04 13/04 23/04 03/05 13/05 23/05
$/t
CME Maize futures
Daily volume
JUL'19: 174
DEC'18: 168
JUL'18: 161
Dai
ly t
rad
ed v
olu
me
(10
00
co
ntr
acts
of
12
7 t
on
s)
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
24/03 03/04 13/04 23/04 03/05 13/05 23/05
$/t
Chicago soybeans futures
Daily volume
JUL'18: 382
AUG'18: 383
SEP'18: 384
Dai
ly t
rad
ed v
olu
me
(10
00
co
ntr
acts
of
13
6to
ns)
CME US maize & soybeans futures - 60 days
Source: CME Source: CME
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77
40
50
60
70
80
May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18
Brent Crude Oil $/barrel
1407
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18
Freight (Baltic dry index)
Monthly avg: currency - oil - freight
Source: Intercontinental Exchange
Source: European Central Bank Source: The Baltic Exchange
1.19
1.03
1.07
1.11
1.15
1.19
1.23
1.27
May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18
Exchange rate € vs $ $
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Source: European Commission – DG JRC
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Source: European Commission – DG TAXUD
2016/17 25.1
0
10
20
30
0
300
600
900
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
To
tal
MY
-m
illi
on
to
nn
es
We
ek
ly v
olu
me
-th
ou
sa
nd
to
nn
es
w eek
Common wheat & flour - exports
2017/18 18.7Mt
Weeklyvolume
(current MY)
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Source: European Commission – DG TAXUD
2016/17
8.4
0
4
8
12
0
200
400
600
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
To
tal
MY -
mil
lio
n to
nn
es
We
ek
ly v
olu
me
-th
ou
san
d to
nn
es
w eek
Barley, malt included - exports
2017/18 7.5Mt
Weeklyvolume
(current MY)
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Source: European Commission – DG TAXUD
2016/17
13.1
0
4
8
12
16
0
200
400
600
800
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
To
tal
MY -
mil
lio
n to
nn
es
Week
ly v
olu
me -
tho
usan
d t
on
nes
w eek
Maize - imports
2017/18 15.4Mt
Weeklyvolume
(current MY)
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Source: Eurostat
Wheat imports
Coarse grain imports
Wheat exports
Coarse grain exports
Trade balance
30
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mil
lio
n to
nn
es
Marketing Year (July-June)
Cereals: 17 marketing years trade evolution (EU28 countries)
