Eric WILLEMS Deputy Head of Unit

DG AGRI C 5

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Overview

•  Cereal 2012/13 – Market situation •  EU durum trade •  2013/14 Production forecast

•  IGC world forecasts •  EU: Impact of the weather conditions on crop

development •  EU-28 Area forecasts •  EU-28 Production forecast

•  CAP reform •  Other issues

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Euro – Dollar exchange rate

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Crude oil price ($/barrel)

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Baltic Dry Index

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World cereal prices ($/t)

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US vs. EU wheat export prices

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World durum wheat prices since 01/2008

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EU Commitments 2012/2013 (48 weeks)

  Imports: 15.7 mio t (12.5 mio t in 2011/12; 11.6 mio t 2 years ago)   3.5 mio t soft wheat   1.3 mio t durum wheat   10.0 mio t maize   40 000 t barley

  Exports: 26.2 mio t (20.2 mio t last year; 26.2 mio t 2 years ago)   17.8 mio t soft wheat   4.5 mio t barley   1.1 mio t durum wheat   1.4 mio t maize

  So far, the EU is a net cereal exporter of 10.5 mio t, against 7.7 mio t last year and 14.6 mio t two years ago.

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EU MS exporting durum wheat

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EU durum wheat export destinations

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EU durum wheat exporting MS and destinations

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EU MS importing durum wheat

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EU durum wheat import origins

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EU durum wheat importing MS and origins

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World Total Cereal

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World durum wheat

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EU Area forecasts

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EU Production forecasts

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CAP REFORM

•  Spring 2013: TRILOGUES are taking place

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Making the new CAP a reality…

With the aim of an

AGREEMENT BY JUNE 2013 The whole CAP to enter into force in 2014

except for the instruments of the new Direct Payments (for 2015)

Commission

Council European Parliament

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Cereals sector •  Very limited changes for the cereals sector •  Public intervention remains a safety net

•  soft wheat, maize and barley remain eligible •  sorghum and durum wheat removed as eligible products

•  Open from 1 November until 31 May •  Buying price for soft wheat:

•  Automatic and at fixed price :101,31 €/t up to 3 millions tonnes •  Over 3 millions tonnes : tendering procedure sets the price, which cannot be more than

101,31 €/t.

•  For barley and maize: •  Quantitative limit set at "0" •  If needed : activation of the safety net through tendering procedure, with the consultation

of the Single CMO Management Committee.

•  Exceptional measures updated and modernised •  loss of consumer confidence provision expanded to all sectors in the existing sCMO •  a general market disturbance provision for all sectors in the existing sCMO •  possibility to act under urgency procedures

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Other issues

•  Volatility high on the international agenda => G20 commitment to improve the regulation, functioning and transparency of financial and commodity markets •  Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) put in place as of September 2011:

publication of monthly market data for 4 crops (wheat, maize, rice, soybeans)

•  Revision of the European Union's Regulatory Framework for •  Commodity Derivatives Markets

•  EMIR: New Regulation on OTC derivatives, •  MiFID II: Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and Regulation, •  MAD II : Market Abuse Directive and Regulation. •  New AGRI expert group on future & spot markets (2012)

•  EU initiatives to tackle market transparency •  Publication of COP short term forecast on EUROPA website •  Monthly publication (update) of the cereals, oilseeds, rice balance sheet for the

current & next marketing year (data aggregated at EU27/28 level).

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AMIS participants/commodities

•  G20: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabaia, South Africa, S. Korea, Turkey, UK, US, EU (+Spain)

•  Non G20: Egypt, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Philippines, Thailand, Ukraine & Vietnam

•  Commodities: wheat, maize, rice & soybeans

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AMIS secretariat

•  INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS & ENTITIES

•  FAO, OECD, World Bank, IFAD, IFPRI, WFP, WTO, UN High Level Task Force (UN-HLTF) and UNCTAD + IGC (from Oct 2012 onwards)

•  From October 2012 onwards, AMIS monthly publication http://www.amis-outlook.org/

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DG AGRI & AMIS

•  From October 2011: EU monthly updates presented in Management Committee

•  Day after: sent to AMIS & put on EUROPA

•  Larger commodity coverage: all cereals, all oilseeds & rice

•  No data per MS transmitted, only aggregated EU-27(28) figures

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balance-sheets/index_en.htm

Thank you for your attention!

Balance sheet updates : http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balance-sheets/index_en.htm