Sources - CIRCABC · DG AGRI DASHBOARD: OILSEEDS Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG JRC,...
20
DG AGRI DASHBOARD: OILSEEDS Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG JRC, DG AGRI), MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1342/2003), European Central Bank, IGC, ICE, USDA, CME, MATIF Last update: 05.07.2018 Prices Production & Stocks Trade Crop development stage 594 355 75 50 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 oilseeds soybeans rapeseed sun flower (million tonnes) 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (proj.) 344 247 42 21 0.000 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 oilseeds soybeans rapeseed sun flower (million tonnes) 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (proj.) 203 73 58 30 19 0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 oilseeds palm soybeans rapeseed sun flower (million tonnes) 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (proj.) 60 days futures price - soybeans CME 305 315 325 335 345 355 365 375 385 395 405 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Daily traded volume (1000 contracts 136 t) $/t AUG'18: 310 SEP'18: 312 JUL'19: 314 335 402 379 330 370 410 450 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 $/t Oilseeds export prices - monthly average Soy (US) Rape (EU) Sun (EU) €/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t Argentina - Up River 316 368 -9% -9% -3% 0% Brazil - Paranagua 328 383 -5% -5% -1% 2% US Gulf 286 334 -14% -15% -12% -10% Ukraine 358 418 -2% -3% 16% 19% Australia 364 424 0% -1% -9% -6% Canada 363 423 -4% -5% -2% 1% EU (Rouen) 346 403 -2% -2% -2% 0% Ukraine 351 409 -1% -2% 1% 0% EU (Bordeaux) 326 380 -1% -2% -7% -5% Ukraine 323 376 0% 0% -1% 2% Export prices FOB 03 Jul 2018 m/m variation y/y variation soybeans sunflower rapeseed 60 days futures price - rapeseed MATIF 340 345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385 390 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 €/t Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 t) AUG'18: 360 MAY'19: 370 AUG'19: 358 372 260 207 100 200 300 400 500 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 $/t Meals export prices - monthly average Soy (Arg) Soy (Bz) Soy (US) Rape (EU) Sun (Arg) €/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t soyoil Argentina - Up River 576 672 -1% -2% -13% -11% sunoil Ukraine 635 740 0% 0% -2% 0% canola oil EU (Rotterdam) 744 868 3% 3% -9% -7% palm oil Indonesia 499 582 -5% -5% -15% -12% Export prices FOB 03 Jul 2018 m/m variation y/y variation 585 866 550 650 750 850 950 Jul-17 Oct-17 Ja n-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 $/t Vegetable oils - monthly average Sun (Ukr) Palm (Indonesia) Soy (US) Rape (EU) Oilseeds / Cereals futures price ratio World oilseeds production World oilseeds stocks World vegetable meals production World vegetable oils production 101 87 6 3 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 oilseeds soybeans rapeseed sun flower (million tonnes) 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (proj.) 33 21 2.8 9.7 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 Total Rape So ybean Sun flower (million tonnes) 5 years trimmed average 2017/18(e) 2018/19(f) EU oilseeds production EU vegetable meals production 30 13 12 5 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 Total Rape So ybean Sun flower (million tonnes) 5 years trimmed average 2017/18(e) 2018/19(f) EU vegetable oils production 16 10 2.9 3.6 0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0 20.0 Total Rape So ybean Sun flower (million tonnes) 5 years trimmed average 2017/18(e) 2018/19(f) EU oilseeds stocks 3.0 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Total Rape So ybean Sun flower (million tonnes) 5 years trimmed average 2017/18(e) 2018/19(f) €/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t soymeal Argentina - Up River 317 370 -10% -10% 17% 21% sunmeal Argentina - Up River 177 207 1% 0% 49% 53% rapemeal EU (Hambourg) 224 261 -2% -3% 11% 14% Export prices FOB 03 Jul 2018 m/m variation y/y variation 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 US soybean - maize price ratio (CBOT) 03/07/2018: 2.46 EU rapeseed - wheat price ratio (MATIF) 03/07/2018: 1.97 2016/17 2015/16 soybeans 13 383.1 -5% -7% Brazil 40.4% rapeseed 4 144.9 -13% 21% Australia 43.9% sunflowerseed 532.6 -34% 20% Moldova, Republic of 73.4% soymeal 18 677.7 3% -8% Argentina 44.6% rapemeal 181.7 3% -54% Russian Federation 47.1% sunmeal 3 657.2 1% 13% Ukraine 67.6% soyoil 252.9 -12% -21% Ukraine 30.8% rapeoil 158.5 5% -21% Russian Federation 37.0% sunoil 1 651.4 -1% 19% Ukraine 90.0% palm oil 6 060.0 -1% -9% Indonesia 46.9% Cumulated Imports up to week 53 (1/7/17 - 30/06/18) 2017/18 (thousand tonnes) Difference (%) with Main origin of imports share (%) in total import 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 Weeks 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Soybeans Imports (thousand tonnes) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 Weeks 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Soymeal Imports (thousand tonnes) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 Weeks 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Rapeseed Imports (thousand tonnes) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 Weeks 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Sunflower Imports (thousand tonnes)
Transcript of Sources - CIRCABC · DG AGRI DASHBOARD: OILSEEDS Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG JRC,...
DG AGRI DASHBOARD: OILSEEDS
Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG JRC, DG AGRI), MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1342/2003), European Central Bank, IGC, ICE, USDA, CME, MATIF
Last update: 05.07.2018P
rice
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ion
&
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cks
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e
Cro
p d
eve
lop
me
nt
stag
e
594
355
75 50
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
oilseeds soybeans rapeseed sunflower
(million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (proj.)
344
247
42 21
0.000
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
oilseeds soybeans rapeseed sunflower
(million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (proj.)
203
73 5830 19
0.000
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
oilseeds palm soybeans rapeseed sunflower
(million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (proj.)
60
day
s fu
ture
s p
rice
-so
ybe
ans
CM
E
305
315
325
335
345
355
365
375
385
395
405
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Dai
ly t
rad
ed v
olu
me
(10
00
co
ntr
acts
13
6 t
)
$/tAUG'18: 310
SEP'18: 312
JUL'19: 314
335
402
379
330
370
410
450
Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18
$/t Oilseeds export prices - monthly average
Soy (US) Rape (EU) Sun (EU)
€/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t Argentina - Up River 316 368 -9% -9% -3% 0%
Brazil - Paranagua 328 383 -5% -5% -1% 2%
US Gulf 286 334 -14% -15% -12% -10%
Ukraine 358 418 -2% -3% 16% 19%
Australia 364 424 0% -1% -9% -6%
Canada 363 423 -4% -5% -2% 1%
EU (Rouen) 346 403 -2% -2% -2% 0%
Ukraine 351 409 -1% -2% 1% 0%
EU (Bordeaux) 326 380 -1% -2% -7% -5%
Ukraine 323 376 0% 0% -1% 2%
Export prices FOB03 Jul 2018 m/m variation y/y variation
soybeans
sunflower
rapeseed
60
day
s fu
ture
s p
rice
-ra
pe
see
d M
ATI
F
340
345
350
355
360
365
370
375
380
385
390
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
€/t
Dai
ly t
rad
ed v
olu
me
(10
00
co
ntr
acts
of
50
t)
AUG'18: 360
MAY'19: 370
AUG'19: 358
372
260
207
100
200
300
400
500
Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18
$/t Meals export prices - monthly average
Soy (Arg) Soy (Bz) Soy (US)
Rape (EU) Sun (Arg)
€/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t
soyoil Argentina - Up River 576 672 -1% -2% -13% -11%
sunoil Ukraine 635 740 0% 0% -2% 0%
canola oil EU (Rotterdam) 744 868 3% 3% -9% -7%
palm oil Indonesia 499 582 -5% -5% -15% -12%
Export prices FOB03 Jul 2018 m/m variation y/y variation
585
866
550
650
750
850
950
Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18
$/t Vegetable oils - monthly average
Sun (Ukr) Palm (Indonesia)Soy (US) Rape (EU)
Oilseeds / Cereals futures price ratio
World oilseeds production
World oilseeds stocks
World vegetable meals production
World vegetable oils production
10187
6 3
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
oilseeds soybeans rapeseed sunflower
(million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (proj.)
33
21
2.8
9.7
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Total Rape Soybean Sunflower
(million tonnes)
5 years trimmed average 2017/18(e) 2018/19(f)
EU oilseeds production EU vegetable meals production
30
13 12
5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Total Rape Soybean Sunflower
(million tonnes)
5 years trimmed average 2017/18(e) 2018/19(f)
EU vegetable oils production
16
10
2.9 3.6
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
Total Rape Soybean Sunflower
(million tonnes)
5 years trimmed average 2017/18(e) 2018/19(f)
EU oilseeds stocks
3.0
1.1 1.3
0.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Total Rape Soybean Sunflower
(million tonnes)
5 years trimmed average 2017/18(e) 2018/19(f)
€/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t
soymeal Argentina - Up River 317 370 -10% -10% 17% 21%
sunmeal Argentina - Up River 177 207 1% 0% 49% 53%
rapemeal EU (Hambourg) 224 261 -2% -3% 11% 14%
Export prices FOB03 Jul 2018 m/m variation y/y variation
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4US soybean - maize price ratio (CBOT) 03/07/2018: 2.46
EU rapeseed - wheat price ratio (MATIF) 03/07/2018: 1.97
2016/17 2015/16
soybeans 13 383.1 -5% -7% Brazil 40.4%
rapeseed 4 144.9 -13% 21% Australia 43.9%
sunflowerseed 532.6 -34% 20% Moldova, Republic of 73.4%
soymeal 18 677.7 3% -8% Argentina 44.6%
rapemeal 181.7 3% -54% Russian Federation 47.1%
sunmeal 3 657.2 1% 13% Ukraine 67.6%
soyoil 252.9 -12% -21% Ukraine 30.8%
rapeoil 158.5 5% -21% Russian Federation 37.0%
sunoil 1 651.4 -1% 19% Ukraine 90.0%
palm oil 6 060.0 -1% -9% Indonesia 46.9%
Cumulated Imports up
to week 53 (1/7/17 -
30/06/18)
2017/18
(thousand
tonnes)
Difference (%) withMain origin of imports
share (%) in
total import
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49Weeks
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Soybeans Imports (thousand tonnes)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49
Weeks
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Soymeal Imports (thousand tonnes)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49
Weeks
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Rapeseed Imports (thousand tonnes)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 9 17 25 33 41 49
Weeks
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Sunflower Imports (thousand tonnes)
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Source: IGC
€/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t Argentina - Up River 316 368 -9% -9% -3% 0%
Brazil - Paranagua 328 383 -5% -5% -1% 2%
US Gulf 286 334 -14% -15% -12% -10%
Ukraine 358 418 -2% -3% 16% 19%
Australia 364 424 0% -1% -9% -6%
Canada 363 423 -4% -5% -2% 1%
EU (Rouen) 346 403 -2% -2% -2% 0%
Ukraine 351 409 -1% -2% 1% 0%
EU (Bordeaux) 326 380 -1% -2% -7% -5%
Ukraine 323 376 0% 0% -1% 2%
Export prices FOB03 Jul 2018 m/m variation y/y variation
soybeans
sunflower
rapeseed
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€/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t
soyoil Argentina - Up River 576 672 -1% -2% -13% -11%
sunoil Ukraine 635 740 0% 0% -2% 0%
canola oil EU (Rotterdam) 744 868 3% 3% -9% -7%
palm oil Indonesia 499 582 -5% -5% -15% -12%
Export prices FOB03 Jul 2018 m/m variation y/y variation
€/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t
soymeal Argentina - Up River 317 370 -10% -10% 17% 21%
sunmeal Argentina - Up River 177 207 1% 0% 49% 53%
rapemeal EU (Hambourg) 224 261 -2% -3% 11% 14%
Export prices FOB03 Jul 2018 m/m variation y/y variation
Source: IGC
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335
402
379
330
370
410
450
Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18
$/t Oilseeds export prices - monthly average
Soy (US) Rape (EU) Sun (EU)
Source: IGC
\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64
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Source: IGC
585
866
550
650
750
850
950
Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18
$/t Vegetable oils - monthly average
Sun (Ukr) Palm (Indonesia)Soy (US) Rape (EU)
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Source: IGC
372
260
207
100
200
300
400
500
Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18
$/t Meals export prices - monthly average
Soy (Arg) Soy (Bz) Soy (US)
Rape (EU) Sun (Arg)
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Source: CBOT, MATIF
Oilseeds / Cereals futures price ratio
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4US soybean - maize price ratio (CBOT) 03/07/2018: 2.46
EU rapeseed - wheat price ratio (MATIF) 03/07/2018: 1.97
\\net1.cec.eu.int\AGRI\C\4\C5 DATA\5. CEREALES\DASHBOARD\Dashboard_Cereals_Blue.xlsx - 'Dashboard (2)'!W64
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Source: CME, MATIF
60 days futures price - soybeans CME
305
315
325
335
345
355
365
375
385
395
405
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Dai
ly t
rad
ed v
olu
me
(10
00
co
ntr
acts
13
6 t
)
$/tAUG'18: 310
SEP'18: 312
JUL'19: 314
340
345
350
355
360
365
370
375
380
385
390
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
€/t
Dai
ly t
rad
ed v
olu
me
(10
00
co
ntr
acts
of
50
t)
AUG'18: 360
MAY'19: 370
AUG'19: 358
60 days futures price - rapeseed MATIF
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Source: USDA
World oilseeds production
594
355
75 50
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
oilseeds soybeans rapeseed sunflower
(million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (proj.)
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Source: USDA
World oilseeds stocks
10187
6 3
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
oilseeds soybeans rapeseed sunflower
(million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (proj.)
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Source: USDA
World vegetable meals production
344
247
42 21
0.000
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
oilseeds soybeans rapeseed sunflower
(million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (proj.)
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Source: USDA
World vegetable oils production
203
73 5830 19
0.000
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
oilseeds palm soybeans rapeseed sunflower
(million tonnes)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (proj.)
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Source: European Commission
EU oilseeds production
33
21
2.8
9.7
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Total Rape Soybean Sunflower
(million tonnes)
5 years trimmed average 2017/18(e) 2018/19(f)
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Source: European Commission
EU oilseeds stocks
3.0
1.1 1.3
0.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Total Rape Soybean Sunflower
(million tonnes)
5 years trimmed average 2017/18(e) 2018/19(f)
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Source: European Commission
EU vegetable meals production
30
13 12
5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Total Rape Soybean Sunflower
(million tonnes)
5 years trimmed average 2017/18(e) 2018/19(f)
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Source: European Commission
EU vegetable oils production
16
10
2.9 3.6
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
Total Rape Soybean Sunflower
(million tonnes)
5 years trimmed average 2017/18(e) 2018/19(f)
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Source: European Commission
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Source: European Commission
2016/17 2015/16
soybeans 13 383.1 -5% -7% Brazil 40.4%
rapeseed 4 144.9 -13% 21% Australia 43.9%
sunflowerseed 532.6 -34% 20% Moldova, Republic of 73.4%
soymeal 18 677.7 3% -8% Argentina 44.6%
rapemeal 181.7 3% -54% Russian Federation 47.1%
sunmeal 3 657.2 1% 13% Ukraine 67.6%
soyoil 252.9 -12% -21% Ukraine 30.8%
rapeoil 158.5 5% -21% Russian Federation 37.0%
sunoil 1 651.4 -1% 19% Ukraine 90.0%
palm oil 6 060.0 -1% -9% Indonesia 46.9%
Cumulated Imports up
to week 53 (1/7/17 -
30/06/18)
2017/18
(thousand
tonnes)
Difference (%) withMain origin of imports
share (%) in
total import
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Source: European Commission
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49Weeks
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Soybeans Imports (thousand tonnes)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49
Weeks
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Soymeal Imports (thousand tonnes)
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Source: European Commission
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 9 17 25 33 41 49
Weeks
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Rapeseed Imports (thousand tonnes)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 9 17 25 33 41 49
Weeks
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Sunflower Imports (thousand tonnes)
