Assessment of wheat yield gap in Central Asia

Assessment of wheat yield gap in Central Asia

Case studies from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan

Bogachan Benli, Aziz Nurbekov, Tulkun Yuldashev and Ram SharmaInternational Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas

Cent

ral A

sia

Clim

ate

Smar

t Agr

icul

ture

Wor

ksho

p, 1

2-14

July

201

6, B

ishk

ek, K

yrgy

zsta

n

Global food security

Thomas Robert Malthus Principle of population (1806)

Global food security70% of more food 974 more calories

Wheat agriculture in Central Asia

Source: FAO, 20141992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

0

5

10

15

20

25 KazakhstanKyrgzystanTajikistanTurkmensitanUzbekistan

Mt

Wheat Yields in Central Asia

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000KazakhstanKyrgyzstanTajikistanTurkmenistanUzbekistan

kg/h

a

Source: FAO STATS, 2014

Questions

1. What are the improved soil, crop and water management practices to sustainably meet the increasing demand?

2. What are the yield gaps of wheat crop in Central Asia

Methodology - Agro-climatic zonesA-C-VW Arid, cool winter, very warm summerA-C-W Arid, cool winter, warm summerA-K-C Arid, cold winter, cool summerA-K-M Arid, cold winter, mild summer A-K-VW Arid, cold winter, very warm summer A-K-W Arid, cold winter, warm summerH-K-C Humid, cold winter, cool summerH-K-M Humid, cold winter, mild summer H-K-W Humid, cold winter, warm summer PH-K-K Per-humid, cold winter, cold summerPH-K-M Per-humid, cold winter, mild summerPH-K-W Per-humid, cold winter, warm summerSA-C-W Semi-arid, cool winter, warm summer SA-K-C Semi-arid, cold winter, cool summer SA-K-M Semi-arid, cold winter, mild summerSA-K-W Semi-arid, cold winter, warm summerSH-C-W Sub-humid, cold winter, warm summerSH-K-C Sub-humid, cold winter, cool summerSH-K-M Sub-humid, cold winter, mild summerSH-K-W Sub-humid, cold winter, warm summer

Irrigated-High Salinity

Irrigated -Low salinity

Irrigated-Medium Salinity

Rainfed-Low salinity

Rainfed-Medium Salinity

Rainfed-High Salinity

Methodology - Selected sitesCountry Province SiteKazakhstan Kyzylordinskaya ShieliKazakhstan Kustanayskaya KustanayKazakhstan Sever-Kazakhstanskay AstanaKazakhstan North Kazakhstan PetropavlovskKazakhstan Atyrauskaya MakatKazakhstan Jambylslkaya SarysuKazakhstan Yujno-kazachstanskaya SuzakKazakhstan Vostochno-kazachstanskaya ZaysanKazakhstan Zapadno-kazachstanskaya ZelyenovKazakhstan Severo-kazachstanskaya BulayevKazakhstan Almatinskaya RaimbekKyrgyzstan Chui valley AlamudunTajikistan Bokhtar Khatlon provinveUzbekistan Syrdarya province AkaltynUzbekistan Khorezm province UrgenchUzbekistan Karakalpakstan Chimbay districtUzbekistan Bukhara Peshku districtUzbekistan Bukhara Karakul district

Methodology – Activities

Farmers Yield Survey, National Agricultural Research Centers (1991-2015)

Research Yield Review of Existing Studies

Potential Yield CropSyst (Crop, soil and irrigation management)

Identification of the causes of gaps

Management options to reduce

the gaps

Model Calibration and validation

0 4000 8000 12000 160000

4000

8000

12000

16000AGB

2005/062006/07

0 2000 4000 6000 80000

2000

4000

6000

8000

Yield

0 50 100 150 2000

50

100

150

200

N-uptake

• CropSyst Model• 2005-2008 (3 years data)• Amir Temur Farmer’s

Association (101m asl), Urgench, Uzbekistan

• Effect of water and nitrogen fertilizer use on winter wheat

Irrigated High Salinity – Kyrgyzstan Bishkek - Daniyar

Farmers Yield (Kg/ha)

Research Results (Kg/ha)

Potential Yield (Kg/ha)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000 2007-08 2008-09

Farmers yield

Research results – 47%

Potential yield – 181%

Yield Gap

Farmers Practices• Planting date: Sep -Dec; Mainly Cotton & Wheat Rotation • Salinity problems• Inefficiency with Irrigation, Fertilizer, Herbicide Rate

Research Results (Sommer et al, 2013)- 115 mm of IRR and N90&P60

Optimum IRR (180 – 270 mm) and N90 application

Irrigated Medium Salinity – Uzbekistan Khorezm

Farmers Yield (Kg/ha) Research Results (Kg/ha) Potential Yield (Kg/ha) -

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2005-06 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

Farmers yield



Yield Gap

Farmers Practices• Planting date: Sep -Dec; Mainly Cotton & Wheat Rotation • No Land levelling• Hydro Module Zone Approach in Irrigation

Research Results (Ibrohimov et al, 2009)- 600 mm of IRR and N240

Optimum IRR (250 – 275 mm. And 240kg N application)

Irrigated Low Salinity – Uzbekistan Bukhara Peshku


1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Farmers yield


Yield Gap

Farmers yield



Farmers Practices• Planting date: Sep -Dec; Mainly Cotton & Wheat Rotation • No Land levelling• Hydro Module Zone Approach in Irrigation

Research Results (Anvar, 2010)- 300 mm of IRR and N300

Optimum IRR (200-340 mm) and N333 application

Rainfed High Salinity – Tajikistan Bokhtar Khatlon


1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2007-08 2008-09

Yield GapFarmers yield



Farmers Practices• Drought and salt tolerant varieties are missing• Low efficiency in fertilizer application• Salinity problems

Research Results (Sommer et al, 2013)- 80 mm IRR at sowing (November)

Early sowing (October) + 50 mm IRR & 50 mm at flower

Rainfed Medium Salinity – Kazakhstan Atyrauskaya MakatFarmers Practices• Wheat – Fallow rotation• Planting date is ranging one month (May-June)• Low fertilizer and herbicide applications• Drought tolerant varieties are missing• Low efficiency in tillage operations

Research Results (Aybatsha and Tsigankov V.I. 2009)-(Planting in May + P150)

Early sowing + 50 mm IRR + Optimum N30 applicationBusy Fallow &Water Harvesting & No till & Crop Residues

Farmers Yield (Kg/ha) Research Results (Kg/ha) Potential Yield (Kg/ha)0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1999 2000 2001

Farmers yield



Yield Gap

Rainfed Low Salinity – Kazakhstan Vostochno Zaysan


500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003

Farmers yield



Farmers Practices• Wheat – Fallow rotation• Drought tolerant varieties are missing• Low efficiency in tillage operations

Research Results (Iorganskiy A.I., 2008)-(Planting in May + Tillage)

Early sowing + 50 mm IRR + N30 applicationBusy Fallow &Water Harvesting & No till & Crop Residues

Farmers yield



Yield Gap

Conclusion

Irrigated Sites1.5 times yield increase Optimum irrigation and

Nitrogen applicationIn salinized areas GW

intrusion is causing the secondary salinization

problem

• Residue retention or mulching • Crop rotation with alfalfa,

second harvest mungbean • Optimum leaching rates• Improved varieties would

increase yields more

Rainfed Sites1.6 times yield increase

Early sowing, supplementary irrigation at sowing (50mm)

and/or flowering & busy fallow & crop residue & water

harvesting. Optimum Nitrogen application

• Improved varieties• Crop rotation• Optimum sowing date• Nitrogen application right after

rainfall

Assessment of wheat yield gap in Central Asia

Education

Transcript of Assessment of wheat yield gap in Central Asia