Post on 31-Aug-2014
description
Long-term HRM strategy - turning HR into a crucial instrument for the long-term success of your company-
frederic de meyer founder
institute for future insights
frederic@i4fi.com
www.i4fi.com
www.fredericdemeyer.com
@fdemeyer
Catching up
Who are you? How are you doing? How is your company dealing with long-term trends? What do you expect from this session?
About me…
Sept 2011 – now Jan 2001 – Sept 2011 Sept 1999 – Dec 2000 Dec 1998 – Sept 1999 July 1998 – Nov 1998 Sept 1997 – June 1998 Sept 1995 – Aug 1997 <1995
Agenda
Meeting up & expectations
Part 1: zooming in on megatrends
• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;
• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;
• Trends affecting other functions in the organization;
• Specific trends affecting HRM
Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends
• Megatrends exercise step-by-step
• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)
• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)
Some housekeeping rules
• Do not hesitate to interrupt me • What is obvious to me is not necessarily obvious to you… please ask !!! • I’m not almighty …
Agenda
Meeting up & expectations
Part 1: zooming in on megatrends
• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;
• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;
• The future of organizations and its impact on HRM;
• Specific trends affecting HRM
Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends
• Megatrends exercise step-by-step
• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)
• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)
why do I have to bother about
long-term trends?
let’s start with a challenge:
what do these have in common?
here’s a hint…
Ford almost got out of
business in the early
1900’s for sticking to it
standardized products
In 2002 Barbie lost its
market predominance
to a new competitor
who just entered this
market the year
before
Until 2006 Coca Cola
was boycotted
multiple times in India
due to its water
mismanagement
practices
GM’s Hummer saw
sales drop 85% from
2006 to 2009
sometimes long-term shifts do have
short-term consequences!
one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...
an increasing number of hurricanes in the US
is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend
before we start… what are megatrends exactly?
a worldwide increase in number and intensity of
hurricanes would be a megatrend
and the consequences might trigger new
(mega)trends
my ‘rules of thumb’
• long-lasting
• amplifying
• cause disruptive shift
• have a global impact
• ... almost feel inevitable (not prone to change of taste or mood, lobby)
Which role should the megatrend exercise play in your
corporate strategy?
Megatrends
Predictions
Threats -irrelevance;
- new competitors
Opportunities - business Model Innovation;
- gain efficiency, competitiveness
Opportunities -go-to-market innovation; - new products/services
Threats -miss the boat;
- existing competion
Scenario Planning
Corporate Strategy
Trends
Corporate Execution (tactics)
Fashion Tastes
Communities Opinion makers
Mood
Lobby; Mood;
Adoption; Regulation
Black Swans
Environment Demographic shifts
Regulations Macro-economy
Political shifts
Frederic De Meyer
What the megatrend exercise is all about
Threats -irrelevance;
- new competitors
Opportunities - business Model Innovation;
- gain efficiency, competitiveness
Megatrends Corporate strategy
Environment Demographic shifts
Regulations Macro-economy
Political shifts
Companies that grew new opportunities based on
megatrends
• Trend: Rising middle class in Emerging
– Tata Nano Car Benefit from rising middle-class in India who want cheap, no-thrill car to replace motorbikes and obtain ‘car-driver’ status
• Trend: Ageing population, talent scarcety
– Cisco Health Presence Less mobile but growing elderly population will need
remote access to health. Less young people will lead to talent scarcity, remote doctors could be located anywhere in the world.
• Trend: Mass customization, Do it Yourself
– Nike and many many others Offer multiple customization possibilities
Companies that built new business models based on
megatrends...
• Trend: Global Grid, desintermediation, crowdsourcing
– Peer-to-peer lending Companies like Prosper and Zopa organize peer-to-peer lending, making the task of a bank redundant.
– Fan Funding Companies like Sellaband and Sonicangels enables
anounymous funding of musicians for a share of potential revenue, making the intervention of music label companies redundant.
– Crowdsourcing Marketing, advertisement, innovation, problem
solving, consumer-generated design, ... Crowdsourcing moves into all segments
Companies that shaped their organization and vision to
megatrends
• Trend: Sustainability, Ageing Polulation, Urbanization, Rising middle-class, ...
– Siemens Communication on how each of Siemens’ Business Unit is responding to a specific megatrend challenge... Very effective corporate branding.
• Trend: Ageing Polulation
– GlaxoSmithKline Vision statement completely aligned with Ageing
Population trend
‘Do more, feel better, live longer’
in fact, megatrends could potentially transform many
areas of your business…
external
internal
new
competitors
new business
models
new needs of
customers
new customer
segments
new talents and
competencies
new marketing
mix
new
ecosystems
new go-to-
market models
new production
processes
megatrends
Agenda
Meeting up & expectations
Part 1: zooming in on megatrends
• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;
• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;
• Trends affecting other functions in the organization;
• Specific trends affecting HRM
Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends
• Megatrends exercise step-by-step
• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)
• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)
There’s different types of megatrends
DEMOGRAPHIC
• aging population • increasing world population • genY/Milennials • urbanization/geographic mobility • multi-ethnic society • widening gap rich-poor
BUSINESS TRENDS
• shared value (CSR) • social Entrepreneurship • Cause marketing • social Business • open inno/sourcing
trends we can be relatively certain of:
TECHNOLOGY
• ubiquitous computing • disintermediation • crowdsourcing • social Media • SaaS, DIY • cloud Computing
• consumerization (BYOD) • augmented Reality • 3D printing • enhanced humans
• decentralization • gamification • virtualization • new business models
• trade blocs and unions • the Market State
trends that are taking shape but future impact relatively uncertain:
a tiny bit speculative:
SUSTAINABILITY
• global warming • scarcity of resources • energy dependency
• declining biodiversity • green technologies
CONSUMER • mass customization
• radical transparency • social buying • sustainable/ethical buying
SOCIETY • dematerialization (digitization)
• talent shortage • boundary blurring • digital divide
GEOPOLITICS • power shift to East • globalization 3.0 • rising middle class
• trade blocs and unions • the Market State • Virtual currencies
look beyond the obvious… megatrends sometimes do have unsuspected consequences
desintermediation
retail shops did loose some business already
through direct selling/ ecommerce
health care ‘peer-to-peer’ health provision projects
arise in US
IT services ‘do it yourself’ concepts are getting
mainstream
music industry some fan-funding models have gone
broke, others getting successful banking peer-to-peer lending growing from
800m$ to 3b$ this year
Consulting get instant / online / mass-customized
advise?
head hunting recruitment websites and social media
are being used for talent search
impact obvious
impact less obvious
marketing crowdsourcing and open innovation
eating away share
Governments direct redistribution of wealth?
look beyond the obvious… industries can be affected indirectly by trends
transport
Global warming Legislation imposed on transport
Radical transparency/
LCA Adapt to client demand
urbanization More difficult to reach end customer
Rising middle class in
emerging Impact on costs (oil)
GenY Preference for ‘clean’ responsible
businesses
3D printing Less need for transport of goods?
impact obvious
impact less obvious
Shared value Corporate image
Virtualization Less need for transport?
Power shift to
emerging New growth opportunities
Cradle to cradle Adapt processes
Cause marketing New business models
gamification Social
entrepreneurship
Energy dependence Scarcity of resources
Digital divide Talent shortage
enhanced humans Augmented reality
Social media crowdsourcing Power shift to
emerging
look beyond the obvious… try it out for your industry
<your industry>
Global warming Radical transparency/ urbanization Rising middle class in
emerging GenY
impact obvious
impact less obvious Shared value Virtualization 3D printing
Agenda
Meeting up & expectations
Part 1: zooming in on megatrends
• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;
• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;
• Trends affecting other functions of the organization;
• Specific trends affecting HRM
Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends
• Megatrends exercise step-by-step
• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)
• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)
How some corporate functions will evolve
Open Innovation
Open source
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Crowdsourcing Social buying
Affiliate programs
‘Crowd-selling’
R&D
Manufact
uring
Marketing
Sales Admin
Cust.
Service
ICT
Virtual company
The world becomes your R&D center
Open innovation
platforms Open sourcing
User generated
innovation
Most of Fortune 500 use
open innovation now
Open sourcing spreads even
to pharmaceutical market
Fiat Mio made through input
of +10,000 customers
Manufacturing without factories
3D printing impact on manufacturing, spare parts, transport, logistics, …
New opportunities in design and software
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Open Innovation
Open source
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Can marketing tasks be done more efficiently by an
anonymous crowd?
Using the crowds’ creativity
to design logo’s, websites,
new product features, …
Using the crowd for research
and predictions…
Using the crowds’ creativity for
producing things
(advertisements, videos, …)
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Open Innovation
Open source
Open Innovation
Open source
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Can marketing tasks be done more efficiently with
alternative business models?
The world is your sales team
Simple administrative tasks can be done anywhere
Customer service via social media
Companies building peer-to-peer support communities find 95% of customers using it,
with 90% of them finding the solutions helpful
Technology becomes pervasive
Are Cloud computing, consumerization of IT and Do-it-Yourself
Taking away control and responsibility of IT?
The future is never extreme
Open Innovation
Open source
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Crowdsourcing Social buying
Affiliate programs
‘Crowd-selling’
R&D
Manufact
uring
Marketing
Sales Admin
Cust.
Service
ICT
Virtual company
Open Innovation
Open source
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Crowdsourcing Social buying
Affiliate programs
‘Crowd-selling’ Micro-tasking
Cloud, Consumerization,
DIY
Virtual Self help
Social media
Disadvantages: • complexity • loss of control • less loyalty from contributors
Advantages:
• cost-efficiency gains • lean company
• constant innovation • more loyalty from customers
But new competencies will be needed
R&D
Manufac
turing
Market
ing
Sales ICT
Cust.
Service
HRM
Virtual company
Open Innovation
Open source
Outsourcing 3D Printing
Crowdsourcing Social buying
Affiliate programs
‘Crowd-selling’ Micro-tasking
Virtual Social media
Self help
Cloud Consumeri
zation
Conclusions for the future of organizations
• Will open up to the external world
• Will organize around projects (~ movie production)
• Will require new competencies from existing functions
• Will require seamless communication
Agenda
Meeting up & expectations
Part 1: zooming in on megatrends
• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;
• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;
• Trends affecting other functions in the organization;
• Specific trends affecting HRM
Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends
• Megatrends exercise step-by-step
• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)
• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)
What others consider to be long-term HR trends…
1) Businesses seek to regain positive HR image
2) Green initiatives still on hold 3) Digital-age reality sets-in 4) Analysis via HR metrics to address
performance 5) HR technology meets the small
business 6) Increasing efficiency of business
processes 7) HR shared services gains steam
1) It’s the economy 2) Millennials are on the march 3) Employee recruiting and networking online 4) Made to order employment relationships 5) The big blur (work-life) 6) The rise of technology 7) Employee training and development
transformed 8) Tension increases over government
intervention in the employer-employee relationship
9) The rising cost of health-care 10) Globalization, outsourcing and offshoring
1) Rise in health-care costs 2) Focus on domestic safety and security 3) Use of technology to communicate with
employees 4) Growing complexity of legal compliance 5) Use of technology to perform transactional
HR functions 6) Focus on global security 7) Preparing for the next wave of
retirement/labor shortage 8) Use and development of e-learning 9) Exporting of US manufacturing jobs to
developing countries 10) Changing definition of family
1. Technology 2. Ageing society 3. Generation Y
(1) Technological trends affecting HRM function
Impact on HRM: New relationship with technology –
develop project design skills
Intranet Internal
communication
Social Media Recruitment
Corporate image
ERP Resource Mgt
Crowdsourcing HR tasks
Augmented reality
Training & development
BYOD (consumerization)
Tools & benefits
Collaboration tools
Work style
NOW
Enhanced humans & GRIN techs
Recruitment Employee health
Gamification Recruitment
Training & development
Cloud computing
Tools
E-learning Training
(1) Other consequences of technological trends
(discussion)
- are you using gamification, crowdsourcing, AR? - how would this impact HR functions? - what would be the main drivers for adoption? - why would you NOT use these new techs?
Impact on HRM: At same employment rate,
unemployment will be 3% in 2050 This will ineluctably lead to tensions
on the labor market
(2) How will the ageing population impact the HRM
function?
2010 2050
employed/retired 2,24 1,51
employed/(retired +
unemployed) 1,54 1,40
people at empl age 6,9M 6.4M
employment 6,2M ???
(2) Other consequences of ageing population
(discussion)
- how are you preparing for ageing population? - how are you managing the different generations in your company? - what are the specific threats of ageing population for your company?
(3) Generation Y workers will change the workfloor
Changing expectations about work
Generation internet is a fact of life
Traditionalist Middle Age Generation 30+ Generation
Internet
Training the hard way too much and I'll
leave
required to keep
me
continuous and
expected
Learning style classroom facilitated independent collaborative and
networked
Communication style top down guarded hub and spoke collaborative
Problem-solving hierarchical horizontal independent collaborative
Decision-making seeks approval team informed team includes team decides
Leadership style command and
control
get out of the way coach partner
Feedback no news is good
news
once per year weekly/daily on demand
Technology use uncomfortable unsure unable to work
without it
indispensable
Job changing unwise sets me back necessary part of the plan
(source: Lancaster and Sti l lman 'When generations col l ide' 2003)
Impact on HRM: How to manage different
generations in one company?
(3) Generation Y workers will change the workfloor
(discussion)
- New migration pattern - young people move to where ‘action’ is
- 3 generations on workfloor - tailor made HR services/ work environment - tension? New communication / learning
- longer working age - adapt work environment and conditions
- how dependent are you from GenY talent? - do you adapt your working environment to attract GenY employees? - Do you offer ‘tailor made’ solutions to the needs of each generation?
(my wildcard) Young potentials might prefer to become
entrepreneurs
0 5 10 15 20
24-30
30-35
37-41
# Jaren na beëindiging van de studies
Lee
ftijd
werknemer
mix
ondernemer
Frederic De Meyer
Impact on HRM: The importance of attracting and
retaining intrapreneurs !
(wildcard) Ideas to stimulate intrapreneurship (and,
hence, innovation) in your company
• Take ideas seriously (no, not through an ‘idea box’)
• Stimulate autonomous idea development
• Democratize decision-taking (bottom-up)
• Cell-division with same DNA
• Spin-in
• Cherish failure
(wildcard) stimulating intrapreneurship
(discussion)
- New migration pattern - young people move to where ‘action’ is
- 3 generations on workfloor - tailor made HR services/ work environment - tension? New communication / learning
- longer working age - adapt work environment and conditions
- do you have programs to stimulate intrapreneurship? - how do you deal with new ideas? - how do you make sure all corporate functions come up with new ideas?
Agenda
Meeting up & expectations
Part 1: zooming in on megatrends
• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;
• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;
• The future of organizations and its impact on HRM;
• Specific trends affecting HRM
Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends
• Megatrends exercise step-by-step
• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)
• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)
here’s a simple process to assess the impact of
megatrends on your company:
#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3 draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally
#1 identify
Megatrends to discuss
Mega trends
but the devil is in the detail…
here’s a simple process to assess the impact of
megatrends on your company:
#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3 draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally
#1 identify
Megatrends to discuss
Mega trends
Identification of Megatrends
• Invite employees to submit
• Internal survey
• Brainstorming
• External consultants
• External individuals
– Linked in
– Crowdsourcing
• Research
Research option: Researching External experts’ assessment of megatrends
Ernst & Young NL
megatrends
CSIRO Compenhagen Institute
for Future Studies
Geert Noels -author of
'Econoshocks'
IBM McKinsey Richard Watson LinkedIn
Cultural / multiethnic
society will lead to
conflict
More from less
(resources)
Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing
(power shift)
Ageing Population technology
Ageing population Personalisation of
product and services
Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity
imperative
Powershift East sustainability
Scarcety of natural
resources
Divergent demographics
between rich and poor +
impact on health
Technological
development
New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid
(connectedness)
Global Connectiviy (>
fear)
consumer power
Individualization More people on the
move (mobility - job &
geographical)
Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more
informed and
empowered)
Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East
Climate iWorld (digital & natural
convergence)
Individualization New capitalism corporate social
responsibility
The Market State (govts
vs globalization)
Environment demography
Islam grows, Christianity
fades
Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaning
More wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resources
Technology impacts more
parts of daily life
Acceleration increasing complexity
Global transport will ever
increase
Network organizing
(network-centricity)
Urbanization
Analyzing 338 responses to a LinkedIn question about Megatrends
26.8% technology (collaboration, increased efficiency, cloud/virtualization, brainstorming (social media), smart
cities3D, nanotechs, mobile, augmented reality, new user interfaces, do it yourself, SaaS
13.7% sustainability, corporate responsibility, green tech
12.5% consumer power (24/7, consumerism, meaning, less is more, buy local, customization, online retail, transparancy
10.1% shift to East (innovation outside of US, decline of West, rising middle class, decline of Dollar
9.5% demography
4.8% meaning (return of ideology, increasing empathy
4.8% scarcity of resources (water
4.8% increasing complexity
3.0% online learning, for-profit universities
1.8% cost cutting
1.8% risk aversion
1.8% simplicity
1.8% Innovation, entrepreneurship
1.2% gov 2.0
0.6% insourcing
0.6% simplexity
0.6% Wealth/poverty
(Question asked by Andreas von der Heydt, director at L’Oréal)
External experts’ assessment of megatrends – group in themes
Ernst & Young NL
megatrends
CSIRO Compenhagen Institute
for Future Studies
Geert Noels -author of
'Econoshocks'
IBM McKinsey Richard Watson - author
of 'Future Files'
Cultural / multiethnic
society will lead to
conflict
More from less
(resources)
Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing
(power shift)
Ageing Population technology
Ageing population Personalisation of
product and services
Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity
imperative
Powershift East sustainability
Scarcety of natural
resources
Divergent demographics
between rich and poor +
impact on health
Technological
development
New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid
(connectedness)
Global Connectiviy (>
fear)
consumer power
Individualization More people on the
move (mobility - job &
geographical)
Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more
informed and
empowered)
Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East
Climate iWorld (digital & natural
convergence)
Individualization New capitalism corporate social
responsibility
The Market State (govts
vs globalization)
Environment demography
Islam grows, Christianity
fades
Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaning
More wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resources
Technology impacts more
parts of daily life
Acceleration increasing complexity
Global transport will ever
increase
Network organizing
(network-centricity)
Urbanization
External experts’ assessment of megatrends - cleaned up major trends
TIP: These are not the only Megatrends... Keep an eye on megatrends constantly !
Demographics: - Ageing Population - Global mobility - Generation Y - Urbanization - Gap rich-poor
Geopolitics: - Globalization 3.0 - Global Grid - Rising power of Emerging - Rising middle class - The Market State
Environment: - Global warming - Scarcety of resources - Energy dependency - Green technologies - Radical Transparency
Technology: -Pervasive Technology (IoT) - Augmented reality - Social Networks - GRIN Technologies - Tech customization
Consumer trends: -Responsible buying - Mass customization
…or select from the 46 used by i4fi…
DEMOGRAPHIC
• aging population • increasing world population • genY/Milennials • urbanization/geographic mobility • multi-ethnic society • widening gap rich-poor
BUSINESS TRENDS
• shared value (CSR) • social Entrepreneurship • Cause marketing • social Business • open inno/sourcing
trends we can be relatively certain of:
TECHNOLOGY
• ubiquitous computing • disintermediation • crowdsourcing • social Media • SaaS, DIY • cloud Computing
• social Media • augmented Reality • 3D • enhanced humans
• decentralization • gamification • virtualization • new business models
• trade blocs and unions • the Market State
trends that are taking shape but future impact relatively uncertain:
a tiny bit speculative:
SUSTAINABILITY
• global warming • scarcity of resources • energy dependency
• declining biodiversity • green technologies
CONSUMER • mass customization
• radical transparency • social buying • sustainable/ethical buying
SOCIETY • dematerialization (digitization)
• talent shortage • boundary blurring • digital divide
GEOPOLITICS • power shift to East • globalization 3.0 • rising middle class
• trade blocs and unions • the Market State • Virtual currencies
Make a selection, for instance with an internal survey
Topic Trend Q1: Is this a NEW
trend ?
Q2: Is this trend
disruptive?
Q3: Is this a +3
year trend?
Q4: Is this trend
important for our
company?
Rate from 1-5
1 Demography Ageing population
2 Demography Growing mobility
3 Demography New migration
4 Demography Generation Y
guidelines for selecting trends to assess in your company
Mega trends
• don’t select (solely) trends with an obvious
impact on your industry or company… the
most successful ideas for innovation will
come from elsewhere;
• get your ideas and selection from a
combination of internal (survey) and external
(consultants) input;
• generate 50 ideas for megatrends, select 20
to discuss.
here’s a simple process to assess the impact of
megatrends on your company:
#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3 draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally
#1 identify
Megatrends to discuss
Discuss the impact of megatrends in small groups
Think Tank discussions
22 megatrends, 5 themes
Demographics: - Ageing Population - Global mobility - Generation Y - Urbanization - Gap rich-poor
Geopolitics: - Globalization 3.0 - Global Grid - Rising power of Emerging - Rising middle class - The Market State
Environment: - Global warming - Scarcety of resources - Energy dependency - Green technologies - Radical Transparency
Technology: -Pervasive Technology (IoT) - Augmented reality - Social Networks - GRIN Technologies - Tech customization
Consumer trends:
-Responsible buying - Mass customization
Discussed in 5 Think Tanks
(+/- 25 participants)
Discussion points:
Subtrends
Consequences
Drivers
Inhibitors
Antitrends?
Likeliness
Timeline
Impact on
company
Impact on
ecosystem
Tip 1: send previous briefing ‘fact sheets’ with thought-provoking questions...
Tip 2: also discuss potential anti-trends, they might constitute specific opportunities
CSIRO - MEGATRENDS Bridge8 - ANTITRENDS
More from less Less from less
Limited resources and increasing
population will drive need for more
efficiency in resource management
People adapt their needs to diminshing
resources
A personal touch Reducing choice
Drive for ever increasing personalisation
of services and goods
People look for ways to simplify decision
taking
Divergent demographics Growing global health
OECD countries ageing and unhealthy,
developing nations boom
Global health improvement due to science
breakthrough, improved fertility rate
More people on the move Fullfillment
Geographic and functional mobility,
urbanization
Young people will build diverse
experience leading to single goal,
technology will make location obsolete
iWorld Opting out
Digital and natural world get mixed.
Internet of things
More people will chose to deconnect
Tip 3: use brainstorming techniques to open up the minds at the start of each megatrend discussion
Tip 3-1: use business model canvas to open up the minds at the start of each megatrend discussion
You can download the canvas for free on www.businessmodelgeneration.com/canvas
HR Partners
Tip 3-2: use your own canvas to open up the minds at the start of each megatrend discussion
Connect with corporate strategy
Recruitment Training & Development
Payroll/ Benefits Admin
Employee Retention
Employee Loyalty & satisfaction
Employee Performance
guidelines for discussing trends in your company
• Invite people with different background,
functions and seniority
• follow a discussion template (though don’t
stick to it);
• take notes during the discussion;
• 5-6 persons per theme, 30-60 min. per trend;
• also look at anti-trends;
• keep it fun !
here’s a simple process to assess the impact of
megatrends on your company:
#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3 draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally
#1 identify
Megatrends to discuss
Trends segmentation according to timeline, to know which ones to act on...
High
Low
Already happening Recent/nacent Future
Impact on c
om
pany
timeline Frederic De Meyer
1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9
10 11 12
13
14 16 15
17 18
19 20
21 22 23
24
Trends segmentation based on which action to take m
anag
eb
le
de
term
ine
d
context core
Influence
Aware Monitor
Action
Frederic De Meyer
1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9
10 11 12
13
14 16 15
17 18
19 20
21 22
24
1. Aware These are the trends that your company has no influence over and that won’t impact on your core activities. In essence, these are quite harmless, although it is a good idea to keep an eye on them since they might influence the environment of your customers, channels or partners. However, they do not require any immediate action. 2. Monitor The trends in this quadrant are potentially dangerous. They have an impact on your core activities but you have no influence over them. The best you can do is follow them very closely, monitor their breadth and impact in order to detect early warning signals and have an action plan ready for the event if these trends cross a certain threshold. 3. Influence These are trends that you can influence but that only have an indirect impact on your business, through clients, employees or channels, for instance. They often constitute a good opportunity for your company to increase its relevancy over these stakeholders, increase loyalty, gain new customers or develop new services. 4. Action For the trends that impact your activities directly and over which you have a certain level of influence, they require immediate action. They will very often create new competitors if you don’t react (think of peer-to-peer lending in the financial sector) or create new business models and innovative products and services. You need to assess these trends urgently and develop a way to respond to them quickly.
‘Heat maps’ very effective way to visualize threats for customers
Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3 Trend 4 Trend [...]Weight
(%
T urno ver)
Customer segment 1 -10 -6 -5 0 -3 60%
Customer segment 2 2 8 0 2 0 20%
Customer segment 3 8 -2 3 -8 -3 10%
Customer segment 4 -7 0 0 0 2 5%
Customer segment [...] 7 6 2 1 10 5%
F rederic D e M eyer
Heat maps can help you to: • uncover which customer segments, business lines, partners, etc are under threat (or opportunity) from specific trends • if you add their relative weight (in %) it can quickly show you how threatened your business is by the situation at your customers • lead to more meaningful (and purposeful) conversations with customers •Refine your strategy based on impact analysis of megatrends…
guidelines for drawing conclusions from the trends
discussions
• segment the trends so as to show which ones
need action or a close monitoring
• map the way megatrends impact your
customer segments and stakeholders
• This is not rocket science… you can do this
based on (internal) survey
here’s a simple process to assess the impact of
megatrends on your company:
#2 discuss Megatrends
internally
#3 draw conclusions
and recommendations
#4 Communicate results
internally and externally
#1 identify
Megatrends to discuss
Available to: Contains: Aim: Format:
Megatrends document: every employee 'Fact sheets' prepared for discussions,
with some high level outcome of
discussions
Alignment of vision, buy-in for
decisions
Doc + discuss
Executive Briefing: top management Short document with key
opportunities and threats (not in other
docs)
Influence decisions, ideas for business
model innovation
Doc + discuss
Partner document: partners and channels Fact sheets of those trends that are
impacting channels
Partner loyalty, joint business planning Doc + discuss
Packs per customer segment: vertical sales teams Fact sheets of those trends that are
impacting specific customers
Customer intimacy, marketing & sales
arguments
Doc + discuss
Packs per product segment: productmanagers,
business units, R&D
Fact sheets of those trends that are
impacting specific product or services
Better market positioning, marketing,
sales messages
Doc + discuss
High level summary: External world Your company's vision on Megatrends Feedback from people outside of
industry, new ideas and insights
Presentations
Maximizing impact of the Megatrend exercise
Assessing the impact of Megatrends onyour company
frederic de meyer
guidelines for communicating the conclusions of the
megatrends exercise
• Maximize the value of the insights for different
audiences;
• Select only the material and trends relevant to
the specific audiences (don’t communicate
everything to everyone);
• Use these documents to explain specific
strategic decisions
long-term shifts do have a short
term effect… prepare your
business now!
Useful documents and templates
CD-ROM contains: Full presentation deck in PPT; 40 megatrends fact sheets; Brainstorming cue-cards; Megatrend selection survey template; Megatrend discussion template; +20 reports on specific megatrends (publicly available)
www.i4fi.com www.fredericdemeyer.com
additional questions: frederic@i4fi.com
The future cannot be predicted …but it can be made !
(ancient African saying)