Hrm megatrends workshop june 2012

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Slides for the workshop 'Long-term HRM strategy: how to turn your Human Resources management into a crucial input for your company's long-term success'

Transcript of Hrm megatrends workshop june 2012

Long-term HRM strategy - turning HR into a crucial instrument for the long-term success of your company-

frederic de meyer founder

institute for future insights

frederic@i4fi.com

www.i4fi.com

www.fredericdemeyer.com

@fdemeyer

Catching up

Who are you? How are you doing? How is your company dealing with long-term trends? What do you expect from this session?

About me…

Sept 2011 – now Jan 2001 – Sept 2011 Sept 1999 – Dec 2000 Dec 1998 – Sept 1999 July 1998 – Nov 1998 Sept 1997 – June 1998 Sept 1995 – Aug 1997 <1995

Agenda

Meeting up & expectations

Part 1: zooming in on megatrends

• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;

• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;

• Trends affecting other functions in the organization;

• Specific trends affecting HRM

Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends

• Megatrends exercise step-by-step

• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)

• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)

Some housekeeping rules

• Do not hesitate to interrupt me • What is obvious to me is not necessarily obvious to you… please ask !!! • I’m not almighty …

Agenda

Meeting up & expectations

Part 1: zooming in on megatrends

• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;

• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;

• The future of organizations and its impact on HRM;

• Specific trends affecting HRM

Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends

• Megatrends exercise step-by-step

• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)

• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)

why do I have to bother about

long-term trends?

let’s start with a challenge:

what do these have in common?

here’s a hint…

Ford almost got out of

business in the early

1900’s for sticking to it

standardized products

In 2002 Barbie lost its

market predominance

to a new competitor

who just entered this

market the year

before

Until 2006 Coca Cola

was boycotted

multiple times in India

due to its water

mismanagement

practices

GM’s Hummer saw

sales drop 85% from

2006 to 2009

sometimes long-term shifts do have

short-term consequences!

one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...

an increasing number of hurricanes in the US

is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend

before we start… what are megatrends exactly?

a worldwide increase in number and intensity of

hurricanes would be a megatrend

and the consequences might trigger new

(mega)trends

my ‘rules of thumb’

• long-lasting

• amplifying

• cause disruptive shift

• have a global impact

• ... almost feel inevitable (not prone to change of taste or mood, lobby)

Which role should the megatrend exercise play in your

corporate strategy?

Megatrends

Predictions

Threats -irrelevance;

- new competitors

Opportunities - business Model Innovation;

- gain efficiency, competitiveness

Opportunities -go-to-market innovation; - new products/services

Threats -miss the boat;

- existing competion

Scenario Planning

Corporate Strategy

Trends

Corporate Execution (tactics)

Fashion Tastes

Communities Opinion makers

Mood

Lobby; Mood;

Adoption; Regulation

Black Swans

Environment Demographic shifts

Regulations Macro-economy

Political shifts

Frederic De Meyer

What the megatrend exercise is all about

Threats -irrelevance;

- new competitors

Opportunities - business Model Innovation;

- gain efficiency, competitiveness

Megatrends Corporate strategy

Environment Demographic shifts

Regulations Macro-economy

Political shifts

Companies that grew new opportunities based on

megatrends

• Trend: Rising middle class in Emerging

– Tata Nano Car Benefit from rising middle-class in India who want cheap, no-thrill car to replace motorbikes and obtain ‘car-driver’ status

• Trend: Ageing population, talent scarcety

– Cisco Health Presence Less mobile but growing elderly population will need

remote access to health. Less young people will lead to talent scarcity, remote doctors could be located anywhere in the world.

• Trend: Mass customization, Do it Yourself

– Nike and many many others Offer multiple customization possibilities

Companies that built new business models based on

megatrends...

• Trend: Global Grid, desintermediation, crowdsourcing

– Peer-to-peer lending Companies like Prosper and Zopa organize peer-to-peer lending, making the task of a bank redundant.

– Fan Funding Companies like Sellaband and Sonicangels enables

anounymous funding of musicians for a share of potential revenue, making the intervention of music label companies redundant.

– Crowdsourcing Marketing, advertisement, innovation, problem

solving, consumer-generated design, ... Crowdsourcing moves into all segments

Companies that shaped their organization and vision to

megatrends

• Trend: Sustainability, Ageing Polulation, Urbanization, Rising middle-class, ...

– Siemens Communication on how each of Siemens’ Business Unit is responding to a specific megatrend challenge... Very effective corporate branding.

• Trend: Ageing Polulation

– GlaxoSmithKline Vision statement completely aligned with Ageing

Population trend

‘Do more, feel better, live longer’

in fact, megatrends could potentially transform many

areas of your business…

external

internal

new

competitors

new business

models

new needs of

customers

new customer

segments

new talents and

competencies

new marketing

mix

new

ecosystems

new go-to-

market models

new production

processes

megatrends

Agenda

Meeting up & expectations

Part 1: zooming in on megatrends

• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;

• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;

• Trends affecting other functions in the organization;

• Specific trends affecting HRM

Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends

• Megatrends exercise step-by-step

• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)

• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)

There’s different types of megatrends

DEMOGRAPHIC

• aging population • increasing world population • genY/Milennials • urbanization/geographic mobility • multi-ethnic society • widening gap rich-poor

BUSINESS TRENDS

• shared value (CSR) • social Entrepreneurship • Cause marketing • social Business • open inno/sourcing

trends we can be relatively certain of:

TECHNOLOGY

• ubiquitous computing • disintermediation • crowdsourcing • social Media • SaaS, DIY • cloud Computing

• consumerization (BYOD) • augmented Reality • 3D printing • enhanced humans

• decentralization • gamification • virtualization • new business models

• trade blocs and unions • the Market State

trends that are taking shape but future impact relatively uncertain:

a tiny bit speculative:

SUSTAINABILITY

• global warming • scarcity of resources • energy dependency

• declining biodiversity • green technologies

CONSUMER • mass customization

• radical transparency • social buying • sustainable/ethical buying

SOCIETY • dematerialization (digitization)

• talent shortage • boundary blurring • digital divide

GEOPOLITICS • power shift to East • globalization 3.0 • rising middle class

• trade blocs and unions • the Market State • Virtual currencies

look beyond the obvious… megatrends sometimes do have unsuspected consequences

desintermediation

retail shops did loose some business already

through direct selling/ ecommerce

health care ‘peer-to-peer’ health provision projects

arise in US

IT services ‘do it yourself’ concepts are getting

mainstream

music industry some fan-funding models have gone

broke, others getting successful banking peer-to-peer lending growing from

800m$ to 3b$ this year

Consulting get instant / online / mass-customized

advise?

head hunting recruitment websites and social media

are being used for talent search

impact obvious

impact less obvious

marketing crowdsourcing and open innovation

eating away share

Governments direct redistribution of wealth?

look beyond the obvious… industries can be affected indirectly by trends

transport

Global warming Legislation imposed on transport

Radical transparency/

LCA Adapt to client demand

urbanization More difficult to reach end customer

Rising middle class in

emerging Impact on costs (oil)

GenY Preference for ‘clean’ responsible

businesses

3D printing Less need for transport of goods?

impact obvious

impact less obvious

Shared value Corporate image

Virtualization Less need for transport?

Power shift to

emerging New growth opportunities

Cradle to cradle Adapt processes

Cause marketing New business models

gamification Social

entrepreneurship

Energy dependence Scarcity of resources

Digital divide Talent shortage

enhanced humans Augmented reality

Social media crowdsourcing Power shift to

emerging

look beyond the obvious… try it out for your industry

<your industry>

Global warming Radical transparency/ urbanization Rising middle class in

emerging GenY

impact obvious

impact less obvious Shared value Virtualization 3D printing

Agenda

Meeting up & expectations

Part 1: zooming in on megatrends

• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;

• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;

• Trends affecting other functions of the organization;

• Specific trends affecting HRM

Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends

• Megatrends exercise step-by-step

• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)

• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)

How some corporate functions will evolve

Open Innovation

Open source

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Crowdsourcing Social buying

Affiliate programs

‘Crowd-selling’

R&D

Manufact

uring

Marketing

Sales Admin

Cust.

Service

ICT

Virtual company

The world becomes your R&D center

Open innovation

platforms Open sourcing

User generated

innovation

Most of Fortune 500 use

open innovation now

Open sourcing spreads even

to pharmaceutical market

Fiat Mio made through input

of +10,000 customers

Manufacturing without factories

3D printing impact on manufacturing, spare parts, transport, logistics, …

New opportunities in design and software

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Open Innovation

Open source

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Can marketing tasks be done more efficiently by an

anonymous crowd?

Using the crowds’ creativity

to design logo’s, websites,

new product features, …

Using the crowd for research

and predictions…

Using the crowds’ creativity for

producing things

(advertisements, videos, …)

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Open Innovation

Open source

Open Innovation

Open source

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Can marketing tasks be done more efficiently with

alternative business models?

The world is your sales team

Simple administrative tasks can be done anywhere

Customer service via social media

Companies building peer-to-peer support communities find 95% of customers using it,

with 90% of them finding the solutions helpful

Technology becomes pervasive

Are Cloud computing, consumerization of IT and Do-it-Yourself

Taking away control and responsibility of IT?

The future is never extreme

Open Innovation

Open source

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Crowdsourcing Social buying

Affiliate programs

‘Crowd-selling’

R&D

Manufact

uring

Marketing

Sales Admin

Cust.

Service

ICT

Virtual company

Open Innovation

Open source

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Crowdsourcing Social buying

Affiliate programs

‘Crowd-selling’ Micro-tasking

Cloud, Consumerization,

DIY

Virtual Self help

Social media

Disadvantages: • complexity • loss of control • less loyalty from contributors

Advantages:

• cost-efficiency gains • lean company

• constant innovation • more loyalty from customers

But new competencies will be needed

R&D

Manufac

turing

Market

ing

Sales ICT

Cust.

Service

HRM

Virtual company

Open Innovation

Open source

Outsourcing 3D Printing

Crowdsourcing Social buying

Affiliate programs

‘Crowd-selling’ Micro-tasking

Virtual Social media

Self help

Cloud Consumeri

zation

Conclusions for the future of organizations

• Will open up to the external world

• Will organize around projects (~ movie production)

• Will require new competencies from existing functions

• Will require seamless communication

Agenda

Meeting up & expectations

Part 1: zooming in on megatrends

• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;

• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;

• Trends affecting other functions in the organization;

• Specific trends affecting HRM

Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends

• Megatrends exercise step-by-step

• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)

• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)

What others consider to be long-term HR trends…

1) Businesses seek to regain positive HR image

2) Green initiatives still on hold 3) Digital-age reality sets-in 4) Analysis via HR metrics to address

performance 5) HR technology meets the small

business 6) Increasing efficiency of business

processes 7) HR shared services gains steam

1) It’s the economy 2) Millennials are on the march 3) Employee recruiting and networking online 4) Made to order employment relationships 5) The big blur (work-life) 6) The rise of technology 7) Employee training and development

transformed 8) Tension increases over government

intervention in the employer-employee relationship

9) The rising cost of health-care 10) Globalization, outsourcing and offshoring

1) Rise in health-care costs 2) Focus on domestic safety and security 3) Use of technology to communicate with

employees 4) Growing complexity of legal compliance 5) Use of technology to perform transactional

HR functions 6) Focus on global security 7) Preparing for the next wave of

retirement/labor shortage 8) Use and development of e-learning 9) Exporting of US manufacturing jobs to

developing countries 10) Changing definition of family

1. Technology 2. Ageing society 3. Generation Y

(1) Technological trends affecting HRM function

Impact on HRM: New relationship with technology –

develop project design skills

Intranet Internal

communication

Social Media Recruitment

Corporate image

ERP Resource Mgt

Crowdsourcing HR tasks

Augmented reality

Training & development

BYOD (consumerization)

Tools & benefits

Collaboration tools

Work style

NOW

Enhanced humans & GRIN techs

Recruitment Employee health

Gamification Recruitment

Training & development

Cloud computing

Tools

E-learning Training

(1) Other consequences of technological trends

(discussion)

- are you using gamification, crowdsourcing, AR? - how would this impact HR functions? - what would be the main drivers for adoption? - why would you NOT use these new techs?

Impact on HRM: At same employment rate,

unemployment will be 3% in 2050 This will ineluctably lead to tensions

on the labor market

(2) How will the ageing population impact the HRM

function?

2010 2050

employed/retired 2,24 1,51

employed/(retired +

unemployed) 1,54 1,40

people at empl age 6,9M 6.4M

employment 6,2M ???

(2) Other consequences of ageing population

(discussion)

- how are you preparing for ageing population? - how are you managing the different generations in your company? - what are the specific threats of ageing population for your company?

(3) Generation Y workers will change the workfloor

Changing expectations about work

Generation internet is a fact of life

Traditionalist Middle Age Generation 30+ Generation

Internet

Training the hard way too much and I'll

leave

required to keep

me

continuous and

expected

Learning style classroom facilitated independent collaborative and

networked

Communication style top down guarded hub and spoke collaborative

Problem-solving hierarchical horizontal independent collaborative

Decision-making seeks approval team informed team includes team decides

Leadership style command and

control

get out of the way coach partner

Feedback no news is good

news

once per year weekly/daily on demand

Technology use uncomfortable unsure unable to work

without it

indispensable

Job changing unwise sets me back necessary part of the plan

(source: Lancaster and Sti l lman 'When generations col l ide' 2003)

Impact on HRM: How to manage different

generations in one company?

(3) Generation Y workers will change the workfloor

(discussion)

- New migration pattern - young people move to where ‘action’ is

- 3 generations on workfloor - tailor made HR services/ work environment - tension? New communication / learning

- longer working age - adapt work environment and conditions

- how dependent are you from GenY talent? - do you adapt your working environment to attract GenY employees? - Do you offer ‘tailor made’ solutions to the needs of each generation?

(my wildcard) Young potentials might prefer to become

entrepreneurs

0 5 10 15 20

24-30

30-35

37-41

# Jaren na beëindiging van de studies

Lee

ftijd

werknemer

mix

ondernemer

Frederic De Meyer

Impact on HRM: The importance of attracting and

retaining intrapreneurs !

(wildcard) Ideas to stimulate intrapreneurship (and,

hence, innovation) in your company

• Take ideas seriously (no, not through an ‘idea box’)

• Stimulate autonomous idea development

• Democratize decision-taking (bottom-up)

• Cell-division with same DNA

• Spin-in

• Cherish failure

(wildcard) stimulating intrapreneurship

(discussion)

- New migration pattern - young people move to where ‘action’ is

- 3 generations on workfloor - tailor made HR services/ work environment - tension? New communication / learning

- longer working age - adapt work environment and conditions

- do you have programs to stimulate intrapreneurship? - how do you deal with new ideas? - how do you make sure all corporate functions come up with new ideas?

Agenda

Meeting up & expectations

Part 1: zooming in on megatrends

• Introduction to megatrends and their importance in corporate strategy;

• Overview of megatrends and their impact on companies and industries;

• The future of organizations and its impact on HRM;

• Specific trends affecting HRM

Part 2: refine your strategy with megatrends

• Megatrends exercise step-by-step

• (Ideas for brainstorming sessions)

• (Ways to draw conclusions for corporate strategy)

here’s a simple process to assess the impact of

megatrends on your company:

#2 discuss Megatrends

internally

#3 draw conclusions

and recommendations

#4 Communicate results

internally and externally

#1 identify

Megatrends to discuss

Mega trends

but the devil is in the detail…

here’s a simple process to assess the impact of

megatrends on your company:

#2 discuss Megatrends

internally

#3 draw conclusions

and recommendations

#4 Communicate results

internally and externally

#1 identify

Megatrends to discuss

Mega trends

Identification of Megatrends

• Invite employees to submit

• Internal survey

• Brainstorming

• External consultants

• External individuals

– Linked in

– Crowdsourcing

• Research

Research option: Researching External experts’ assessment of megatrends

Ernst & Young NL

megatrends

CSIRO Compenhagen Institute

for Future Studies

Geert Noels -author of

'Econoshocks'

IBM McKinsey Richard Watson LinkedIn

Cultural / multiethnic

society will lead to

conflict

More from less

(resources)

Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing

(power shift)

Ageing Population technology

Ageing population Personalisation of

product and services

Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity

imperative

Powershift East sustainability

Scarcety of natural

resources

Divergent demographics

between rich and poor +

impact on health

Technological

development

New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid

(connectedness)

Global Connectiviy (>

fear)

consumer power

Individualization More people on the

move (mobility - job &

geographical)

Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more

informed and

empowered)

Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East

Climate iWorld (digital & natural

convergence)

Individualization New capitalism corporate social

responsibility

The Market State (govts

vs globalization)

Environment demography

Islam grows, Christianity

fades

Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaning

More wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resources

Technology impacts more

parts of daily life

Acceleration increasing complexity

Global transport will ever

increase

Network organizing

(network-centricity)

Urbanization

Analyzing 338 responses to a LinkedIn question about Megatrends

26.8% technology (collaboration, increased efficiency, cloud/virtualization, brainstorming (social media), smart

cities3D, nanotechs, mobile, augmented reality, new user interfaces, do it yourself, SaaS

13.7% sustainability, corporate responsibility, green tech

12.5% consumer power (24/7, consumerism, meaning, less is more, buy local, customization, online retail, transparancy

10.1% shift to East (innovation outside of US, decline of West, rising middle class, decline of Dollar

9.5% demography

4.8% meaning (return of ideology, increasing empathy

4.8% scarcity of resources (water

4.8% increasing complexity

3.0% online learning, for-profit universities

1.8% cost cutting

1.8% risk aversion

1.8% simplicity

1.8% Innovation, entrepreneurship

1.2% gov 2.0

0.6% insourcing

0.6% simplexity

0.6% Wealth/poverty

(Question asked by Andreas von der Heydt, director at L’Oréal)

External experts’ assessment of megatrends – group in themes

Ernst & Young NL

megatrends

CSIRO Compenhagen Institute

for Future Studies

Geert Noels -author of

'Econoshocks'

IBM McKinsey Richard Watson - author

of 'Future Files'

LinkedIn

Cultural / multiethnic

society will lead to

conflict

More from less

(resources)

Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing

(power shift)

Ageing Population technology

Ageing population Personalisation of

product and services

Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity

imperative

Powershift East sustainability

Scarcety of natural

resources

Divergent demographics

between rich and poor +

impact on health

Technological

development

New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid

(connectedness)

Global Connectiviy (>

fear)

consumer power

Individualization More people on the

move (mobility - job &

geographical)

Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more

informed and

empowered)

Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East

Climate iWorld (digital & natural

convergence)

Individualization New capitalism corporate social

responsibility

The Market State (govts

vs globalization)

Environment demography

Islam grows, Christianity

fades

Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaning

More wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resources

Technology impacts more

parts of daily life

Acceleration increasing complexity

Global transport will ever

increase

Network organizing

(network-centricity)

Urbanization

External experts’ assessment of megatrends - cleaned up major trends

TIP: These are not the only Megatrends... Keep an eye on megatrends constantly !

Demographics: - Ageing Population - Global mobility - Generation Y - Urbanization - Gap rich-poor

Geopolitics: - Globalization 3.0 - Global Grid - Rising power of Emerging - Rising middle class - The Market State

Environment: - Global warming - Scarcety of resources - Energy dependency - Green technologies - Radical Transparency

Technology: -Pervasive Technology (IoT) - Augmented reality - Social Networks - GRIN Technologies - Tech customization

Consumer trends: -Responsible buying - Mass customization

…or select from the 46 used by i4fi…

DEMOGRAPHIC

• aging population • increasing world population • genY/Milennials • urbanization/geographic mobility • multi-ethnic society • widening gap rich-poor

BUSINESS TRENDS

• shared value (CSR) • social Entrepreneurship • Cause marketing • social Business • open inno/sourcing

trends we can be relatively certain of:

TECHNOLOGY

• ubiquitous computing • disintermediation • crowdsourcing • social Media • SaaS, DIY • cloud Computing

• social Media • augmented Reality • 3D • enhanced humans

• decentralization • gamification • virtualization • new business models

• trade blocs and unions • the Market State

trends that are taking shape but future impact relatively uncertain:

a tiny bit speculative:

SUSTAINABILITY

• global warming • scarcity of resources • energy dependency

• declining biodiversity • green technologies

CONSUMER • mass customization

• radical transparency • social buying • sustainable/ethical buying

SOCIETY • dematerialization (digitization)

• talent shortage • boundary blurring • digital divide

GEOPOLITICS • power shift to East • globalization 3.0 • rising middle class

• trade blocs and unions • the Market State • Virtual currencies

Make a selection, for instance with an internal survey

Topic Trend Q1: Is this a NEW

trend ?

Q2: Is this trend

disruptive?

Q3: Is this a +3

year trend?

Q4: Is this trend

important for our

company?

Rate from 1-5

1 Demography Ageing population

2 Demography Growing mobility

3 Demography New migration

4 Demography Generation Y

guidelines for selecting trends to assess in your company

Mega trends

• don’t select (solely) trends with an obvious

impact on your industry or company… the

most successful ideas for innovation will

come from elsewhere;

• get your ideas and selection from a

combination of internal (survey) and external

(consultants) input;

• generate 50 ideas for megatrends, select 20

to discuss.

here’s a simple process to assess the impact of

megatrends on your company:

#2 discuss Megatrends

internally

#3 draw conclusions

and recommendations

#4 Communicate results

internally and externally

#1 identify

Megatrends to discuss

Discuss the impact of megatrends in small groups

Think Tank discussions

22 megatrends, 5 themes

Demographics: - Ageing Population - Global mobility - Generation Y - Urbanization - Gap rich-poor

Geopolitics: - Globalization 3.0 - Global Grid - Rising power of Emerging - Rising middle class - The Market State

Environment: - Global warming - Scarcety of resources - Energy dependency - Green technologies - Radical Transparency

Technology: -Pervasive Technology (IoT) - Augmented reality - Social Networks - GRIN Technologies - Tech customization

Consumer trends:

-Responsible buying - Mass customization

Discussed in 5 Think Tanks

(+/- 25 participants)

Discussion points:

Subtrends

Consequences

Drivers

Inhibitors

Antitrends?

Likeliness

Timeline

Impact on

company

Impact on

ecosystem

Tip 1: send previous briefing ‘fact sheets’ with thought-provoking questions...

Tip 2: also discuss potential anti-trends, they might constitute specific opportunities

CSIRO - MEGATRENDS Bridge8 - ANTITRENDS

More from less Less from less

Limited resources and increasing

population will drive need for more

efficiency in resource management

People adapt their needs to diminshing

resources

A personal touch Reducing choice

Drive for ever increasing personalisation

of services and goods

People look for ways to simplify decision

taking

Divergent demographics Growing global health

OECD countries ageing and unhealthy,

developing nations boom

Global health improvement due to science

breakthrough, improved fertility rate

More people on the move Fullfillment

Geographic and functional mobility,

urbanization

Young people will build diverse

experience leading to single goal,

technology will make location obsolete

iWorld Opting out

Digital and natural world get mixed.

Internet of things

More people will chose to deconnect

Tip 3: use brainstorming techniques to open up the minds at the start of each megatrend discussion

Tip 3-1: use business model canvas to open up the minds at the start of each megatrend discussion

You can download the canvas for free on www.businessmodelgeneration.com/canvas

HR Partners

Tip 3-2: use your own canvas to open up the minds at the start of each megatrend discussion

Connect with corporate strategy

Recruitment Training & Development

Payroll/ Benefits Admin

Employee Retention

Employee Loyalty & satisfaction

Employee Performance

guidelines for discussing trends in your company

• Invite people with different background,

functions and seniority

• follow a discussion template (though don’t

stick to it);

• take notes during the discussion;

• 5-6 persons per theme, 30-60 min. per trend;

• also look at anti-trends;

• keep it fun !

here’s a simple process to assess the impact of

megatrends on your company:

#2 discuss Megatrends

internally

#3 draw conclusions

and recommendations

#4 Communicate results

internally and externally

#1 identify

Megatrends to discuss

Trends segmentation according to timeline, to know which ones to act on...

High

Low

Already happening Recent/nacent Future

Impact on c

om

pany

timeline Frederic De Meyer

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9

10 11 12

13

14 16 15

17 18

19 20

21 22 23

24

Trends segmentation based on which action to take m

anag

eb

le

de

term

ine

d

context core

Influence

Aware Monitor

Action

Frederic De Meyer

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9

10 11 12

13

14 16 15

17 18

19 20

21 22

24

1. Aware These are the trends that your company has no influence over and that won’t impact on your core activities. In essence, these are quite harmless, although it is a good idea to keep an eye on them since they might influence the environment of your customers, channels or partners. However, they do not require any immediate action. 2. Monitor The trends in this quadrant are potentially dangerous. They have an impact on your core activities but you have no influence over them. The best you can do is follow them very closely, monitor their breadth and impact in order to detect early warning signals and have an action plan ready for the event if these trends cross a certain threshold. 3. Influence These are trends that you can influence but that only have an indirect impact on your business, through clients, employees or channels, for instance. They often constitute a good opportunity for your company to increase its relevancy over these stakeholders, increase loyalty, gain new customers or develop new services. 4. Action For the trends that impact your activities directly and over which you have a certain level of influence, they require immediate action. They will very often create new competitors if you don’t react (think of peer-to-peer lending in the financial sector) or create new business models and innovative products and services. You need to assess these trends urgently and develop a way to respond to them quickly.

‘Heat maps’ very effective way to visualize threats for customers

Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3 Trend 4 Trend [...]Weight

(%

T urno ver)

Customer segment 1 -10 -6 -5 0 -3 60%

Customer segment 2 2 8 0 2 0 20%

Customer segment 3 8 -2 3 -8 -3 10%

Customer segment 4 -7 0 0 0 2 5%

Customer segment [...] 7 6 2 1 10 5%

F rederic D e M eyer

Heat maps can help you to: • uncover which customer segments, business lines, partners, etc are under threat (or opportunity) from specific trends • if you add their relative weight (in %) it can quickly show you how threatened your business is by the situation at your customers • lead to more meaningful (and purposeful) conversations with customers •Refine your strategy based on impact analysis of megatrends…

guidelines for drawing conclusions from the trends

discussions

• segment the trends so as to show which ones

need action or a close monitoring

• map the way megatrends impact your

customer segments and stakeholders

• This is not rocket science… you can do this

based on (internal) survey

here’s a simple process to assess the impact of

megatrends on your company:

#2 discuss Megatrends

internally

#3 draw conclusions

and recommendations

#4 Communicate results

internally and externally

#1 identify

Megatrends to discuss

Available to: Contains: Aim: Format:

Megatrends document: every employee 'Fact sheets' prepared for discussions,

with some high level outcome of

discussions

Alignment of vision, buy-in for

decisions

Doc + discuss

Executive Briefing: top management Short document with key

opportunities and threats (not in other

docs)

Influence decisions, ideas for business

model innovation

Doc + discuss

Partner document: partners and channels Fact sheets of those trends that are

impacting channels

Partner loyalty, joint business planning Doc + discuss

Packs per customer segment: vertical sales teams Fact sheets of those trends that are

impacting specific customers

Customer intimacy, marketing & sales

arguments

Doc + discuss

Packs per product segment: productmanagers,

business units, R&D

Fact sheets of those trends that are

impacting specific product or services

Better market positioning, marketing,

sales messages

Doc + discuss

High level summary: External world Your company's vision on Megatrends Feedback from people outside of

industry, new ideas and insights

Presentations

Maximizing impact of the Megatrend exercise

Assessing the impact of Megatrends onyour company

frederic de meyer

guidelines for communicating the conclusions of the

megatrends exercise

• Maximize the value of the insights for different

audiences;

• Select only the material and trends relevant to

the specific audiences (don’t communicate

everything to everyone);

• Use these documents to explain specific

strategic decisions

long-term shifts do have a short

term effect… prepare your

business now!

Useful documents and templates

CD-ROM contains: Full presentation deck in PPT; 40 megatrends fact sheets; Brainstorming cue-cards; Megatrend selection survey template; Megatrend discussion template; +20 reports on specific megatrends (publicly available)

www.i4fi.com www.fredericdemeyer.com

additional questions: frederic@i4fi.com

The future cannot be predicted …but it can be made !

(ancient African saying)