Post on 21-Apr-2017
MEGATRENDS
By Anders Lindgren
Discover the tidal waves of changeshaping our present and future lives
TOP 8 GLOBAL
The trends that break all other trendsMEGATRENDS are strong global forces affecting everything and all life on our planet. By viewing the world from a distance and over several centuries, there are 3 revolutionary turning points and 8 global forces of change that stand out and break all other trends. By understanding these deep founded grass root trends and the forces that have shaped the society we have today, it is also easier to predict the future. Especially if we understand how the different forces interact. Our population boom, rapid urbanization, consumption patterns, manufacturing methods and technology craze are all inextricably linked. Anders Lindgren, Futurist,
PR-veteran, Digital Pioneer and Services Marketer
In the same manner as ocean waves can amplify one another, the 8 megatrends are gaining in magnitude and influence, as they interact with one another.Together, they are producing the greatest changes the world has ever seen. Opposing forces and counter cyclical trends will surely arise. They tend to balance things out and are as natural as life itself. They too, are easier to spot when we have a good grasp of the waves of change shaping our past, present and future lives.
The world is
COMPLEX
To understand the
CHAOS
Simply observe the
CHANGE
From
AFAR
And over
100 years of ups and downs in the American stock market
Source: Robert Schiller, professor of economics at Yale University
800
1600
400
0
2000
1200
(S&P Index adjusted for inflation)
TIME
You’ll discover the mighty megatrends
HIDDEN behind all the turmoil and change…
The megatrends impact all life and
They are macroeconomic forces,spanning hundreds of years and backed by verifiable data
EVERYONE
They are undeniable in their magnitude
Population boom
Global connectedness
Wealthinequality
Technologyrush
Rapidurbanization
Ferocious consumption
Digitaltransformation
Environmentaldegradation
8 mighty MEGATRENDS stand out
1
2
3
45
6
7
8
1
2
3
Three revolutionary TURNING POINTS
The Agricultural Revolution (16th and 17th Century)
The Industrial Revolution (18th Century)
The Digital Revolution (20th and 21st Century)
stand out
Let’s go way, way BACK IN TIME
Once UPON A TIME...
Life wasSIMPLE...
Humans HUNTED...
GATHEREDfood…
FOUGHT disasters and diseases
12,000 YEARSLife continued like that for
8000 BC
AD 1
6000 BC
4000 BC2000 BC
1700
10 000 BC
1
Then in the 17th centurywe reached a
According to anthropologist it is the most significant change in our way of thinking and living
TURNING POINT
Two behavioral shifts ignitedA MONUMENTAL CHANGE
We understood the vitalimportance of personalHYGIENE
It vastly improved our living conditions
We started farming food crops and animalsfor NUTRITION
Historians call it theDawn of Civilization
The AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION started
Life on EarthEXPLODED!
In both good ways and bad ways
Population boom
Global connectedness
Wealthinequality
Technologyrush
Rapidurbanization
Ferocious consumption
Digitaltransformation
Environmentaldegradation
Let’s look at the 1st MEGATREND
1
2
3
45
6
7
8
POPULATION
1
boom
Key challenge
The boom will be our doom if we don't change our ways, predict experts.
300 millions
We have grown from 1 billion people to
8000 BC
AD 1
6000 BC
4000 BC2000 BC
1700
1800
The Agricultural revolution
1 billion
5 millions
in just 200 years!
2000
7billions
YEAR 2016
9billions
YEAR 20507 BILLION
The strongest growthwill be seen in AFRICA
It’s population will double by 2050
while Europe’s is expected to shrink.
The boom has TRIGGERED
explosive growth in all areas
SocialTechnical
Creative
2
Shortly after the population boom started in 18th century
A 2nd revolution happened
The steam enginegave it power
The industrial revolution came with full speed
1950 20001850 19001800YEAR
2
It fuelled rapid economic progress
Growth in world Domestic Product
Source: Angus Maddison
30
25
20
15
10
5
TRIL
LIO
N D
OLL
ARS
0
1950 20001850 19001800YEAR
2
became more efficient
MANUFACTURING
FACTORIES shoot up like mushrooms
Masses of WORKERScame searching for jobs
It led to rapid growth of URBAN AREAS
Population boom
Global connectedness
Wealthinequality
Technologyrush
Rapidurbanization
Ferocious consumption
Digitaltransformation
Environmentaldegradation
That brings us to the 2nd MEGATREND
1
2
3
45
6
7
8
URBANIZATIONRapid
2
Key challenge
How will we live: In cities of dreams or urban nightmares?
In 1800, only 3% of the world’s population lived in cities.
Today it’s
By 2030,two-thirds of the world’s population WILL RESIDE IN CITIES
Source: United Nations Population Division
Apparently, we are compelled
to crowd togetherin big cities
Explosive growth of
MEGACITIES
1970 Today 2030
30 today and counting: The number of megacities with > 10 million people is expected to grow to over 40 by 2030.
Every year, 70 million people join the URBAN POPULATION
Through a combination of migration and childbirth
CLIMATE CHANGES and wars also forcepeople to move
Every year millions of refugees migrate to urban areas in search of a better life
SOURCE: Synthesis Report, Climate Change, Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions
No wonder, we seesuch rapid growth of URBAN AREAS
Our cities are more
DENSELY
Inevitably, this is putting cities’ social fabric and infrastructure under pressure
populated than ever
The cities are struggling
TO KEEP UP
With growing need for houses, transport, food, water, sanitation, care and education
1 BILLION
The number is expected to rise, despite great efforts to counteract the problem
people live in urban slums
Source: UN-Habitat
Air pollution is nowthe deadliest form
and the fourth leading risk factor for premature deaths worldwide
SOURCE: The Cost of Air Pollution 2016, the World Bank
OF POLLUTION…
Managing urban areas has become one of the most important development challenges of the 21st century.”
– JOHN WILMOTH, Director of UN DESA’s Population Division
trying to keep our cities livable for everyone
We face TOUGH CHOICES…
Quai Branly Museum. Photo courtesyhttp://www.verticalgardenpatrickblanc.com/
At the same timeopportunities for SMART solutions abound
Obviously, there is stillplenty of space inRURAL AREAS
Only 3% of Earth’s landmass is urbanized
SOURCE: GRUMP
Many urban people long back to the
In everything from interior to personal development and housing we can see groups of people seeking back to their natural heritage and RURAL LIFE
SOURCE: Jean Viardand Bertrand Hervieu
COUNTRYSIDE
SMARTER TRANSPORTand new digital advances
makes rural development more feasible than ever
Population boom
Global connectedness
Wealthinequality
Technologyrush
Rapidurbanization
Ferocious consumption
Digitaltransformation
Environmentaldegradation
Now, let’s look at the 3rd MEGATREND
1
2
3
45
6
7
8
CONSUMPTIONFerocious
3
Key challenge
Our getting and spending culture seems to consumethe time to nourish our bonds with family and nature.
World production of goods and serviceshas grown 240-fold
1500
$ 250BILLIONS* 2016
$ 60,000BILLIONS
* In today’s dollars, World economy (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced. Source: Angus Maddison and the World Bank
For the privilegedindustrialized countries THE WORLD IS AWASH in material goods
…have ABUNDANT
choices… live longer
… travelgreater
distances
… lovetechnology
WE … playmore
… eat more
The median size of today’s supermarket in the USare 46,000 square feet (6 x FOOTBALL FIELDS)
Source: Food Marketing Institute
choice of groceries
ABUNDANT
Average number of items in a US supermarket has grown from 15,000 in 1980 to 50,000 in 2014
Source: Food Marketing Institute
ABUNDANTchoice of groceries
The size of a typical grocery store in the 1920’swas probably around 1,000 square feet
Shopping hasRADICALLYchanged
1908 2016
ABUNDANTchoice of cars
Average number of channels per US home
1960
6
2014
189
ABUNDANTchoice of TV channels
Source: Nielsen
We have become the greatest consumers
in the history of life on earth
IN SHORT:
People in EMERGING
Also want a richer material life and are swiftly adopting the western consumer culture
like Brazil, China and India and Russia…
economies
India and Chinawill be the new
In 2020 the size of the middle class in Asia Pacific is expected to overtake Europe and America combined
Source: World Bank
BIG SPENDERS
There is a
PARADOXthat puzzles experts
The race for richesdoesn’t seem to MAKE US HAPPIER
The overwhelming abundance of
Often causes choice overload
CHOICE
The gettingand spending
Seem to eat away the time to nourish family ties
CULTURE
A good feeling in the body
and peace of mind!
People are made happy by one thing and one thing only
SOME CLAIM:
The debategoes on…
One thing is for
SURE:
Consumerism drives business growth
Population boom
Global connectedness
Wealthinequality
Technologyrush
Rapidurbanization
Ferocious consumption
Digitaltransformation
Environmentaldegradation
That leads us to the 4th MEGATREND
1
2
3
45
6
7
8
TECHNOLOGYrush
4
Key challenge
We can do incredible things with technology –does that mean we always should?
Time to reach 150 million users, years
Phone TV Cell phone
iPod Facebook Internet Google Earth
89
38
147 5 4 2
Source: The Magazine Imaging Notes. See also Ray Kurzweil's book The Singularity is Near and The Economist
Adoption of new technologies is
ACCELERATING
Number of patent filings in leading economies
800,000
600,000
400,000
0
200,000
Patents has grown to DIZZYING HEIGHTS
Source: WIPO,
China
USA
Japan
EU
There’s been a rush of new
TECHNOLOGIES
AGRI-technology
ROBOTICS-technology
ENERGY-technology
BIO-technology
NANO-technology
COMMUNICATION-technology
Two innovations has
We invented the TRANSISTOR to help us use and send electronic signals
It vastly improved our communication
We invented WRITING and the PRINTING PRESS
than anything elseMEANT MORE
Writing and printing has allowed us toCONQUER THE WORLD
It's pure magic how we have used the written language to teach each other things, invent things and create great wonders.
Writing is possible the most important single invention of the last few thousand years.”
– JARED M. DIAMOND, professor, University of California, author of the Pulitzer book Guns, Germs, and Steel.
The transistor and INTEGRATED CIRCUIT
The rate of progressdefies the
The first transistor invented in 1947 could be held in your hand
Today the worlds tiniest transistor is the size of a single molecule
IMAGINATION
Something else is
TRANSFORMINGour society…
Our explorationof the DIGITAL UNIVERSE
Population boom
Global connectedness
Wealthinequality
Technologyrush
Rapidurbanization
Ferocious consumption
Digitaltransformation
Environmentaldegradation
That brings us to the 5th MEGATREND
1
2
3
45
6
7
8
DIGITALtransformation
5
Key challenge
Will the digital world make our lives more simple and convenient or more complicated and confusing?
Welcome to the digital INFORMATION AGE
It all started in the 70’s with a revolutionary turning point
THE DIGITAL REVOLUION
All of a sudden, almost every aspect of life around the world is being recorded and stored in some digital information format. That's a real change in our human ecology.”
– PETER LYMAN, (1940 – 2007)professor emeritus at UC Berkeley
Size of circles indicate actual and expected amount of digitally stored information in the world.
DID YOU KNOW?We live in an exploding digital universe. By the start of 2013, there were almost as many bits of data in our digital universe as there are known stars in the physical universe (4.4 zb). By 2020, the amount is expected to be 10x.
Source: The EMC Digital Universe study
2013
2020
0,1 ZB 44 ZB4,4 ZB
2005
By one calculation, we’ve created more information in the last 10 years than in all of human history before that.”
– DANIEL LEVITIN, McGill University psychology professor, author of The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload.
All of this is more information than the brain is configured to handle.”
– DANIEL LEVITIN, McGill University psychology professor, author of The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload.
Never have people had so much INFORMATION & CONTENT
to choose from
It has radically changed how buyers READ, SHOP and PROCESS
information
in 7ways
People are ADAPTINGtheir lives
1. We have become digital animals2. We try to avoid content overload3. We want things to be easy4. Everything should happen quickly5. We seek help and guidance6. We want to be seen and heard7. We trust word of mouth
There are only
They read, buy and shop differently -so learn about theirdifferences.
4 types of peoplesay experts
A stimulus sparks an interest that
meets a need.
People ask aroundand go online to find out more.
People reevaluatethe purchase and share their experiences.
People decide to buy, join, sign up etc.
People try demos and seek proof points to compare solutions.
People use the product or
service.
Do what you can to understandevery step of theCUSTOMERJOURNEY
The better you do it, the easier it will be to do and say the right things in your communicationcustomer handling
This human qualitywill be a key to
empathynoun | em·pa·thy | \ˈem-pə-thē\
The ability to identify with the situation and emotions of other people. The capacity to understand what other beings are experiencing as ifwe were feeling it ourselves.
SUCCESS
The advances in digital communications
ONLINE USAGE HAS SOAREDis directly linked to the fact that
LOG OFF
It’s about turning off, shutting down and logging out from the digital world
mini-boom
Be alert to the IT’S CALLED DIGITAL DETOX! On the new digital free resorts, people are forced to ditch their smart devices as they check in
Businesses have greatOPPORTUNITIES
To streamline their business and delivery model
The smart ones utilizedigital technologies
To create a seamless buying process fit for our digital age
DON’T BE FOOLED!
There are many dangers lurking in the shadows of the digital jungle
Today’s world is more interconnected than ever before. Yet, for all its advantages, increased connectivity brings increased risk of theft, fraud, and abuse. As people become more reliant on modern technology, we also become more vulnerable to cyberattacks.”
– U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
Population boom
Global connectedness
Wealthinequality
Technologyrush
Rapidurbanization
Ferocious consumption
Digitaltransformation
Environmentaldegradation
That leads us to the 6th MEGATREND
1
2
3
45
6
7
8
GLOBALconnectedness
6
Key challenge
Human survival have always depended on our ability to work together as a team.Now, we are being forced to manage it on a global scale.
Global trade hasEXPLODED
Source: Manfred Steger, Globalization: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford 2013
2010
$ 15,000BILLIONS
1947
$ 57BILLIONS*
There’s been a surge in internationalCAPITAL FLOWS
Nothing flowsmore freely thanINFORMATION
we can connect like never before
With theWORLD WIDE WEBas platform…
Map reveals every connected device
in the worldSource: John Matherly
Through internetwe have instantworld wide reach
In just 4 years time, between 20 and 30 billion things will be connected to the internet. In 1992 it was 1 million
Source: Gartner, McKinsey
of the world’s population is connected to internet today. In 1995 it was 1%.
Source: Internet Live Stats
40%
25 billion
ENGLISH has becomea truly global language
Source: Neil Reynolds, Spread the word
2016
2000MILLIONS
Growth in English speakers and learners globally
1582
4MILLIONS
When trade and information flows..
CULTURE FLOWS
Labor also findmore ways to crossBORDERS
It means that things
SPREADfaster than ever
The good
STUFF
Democratization (voting right is key)
The good
STUFF
Rise of democratizationNumber of nations scoring 8 or more on Polity IV scale, a measure of democracy
Source: The Polity IV project
20
100
80
60
40
But also the really
BAD STUFF
The market is more
VOLATILE
The ups and downs in American stock market
Source: Robert Schller, professor of economics at Yale University
800
1600
400
0
2000
1200
(S&P Index adjusted for inflation)
People are more
VULNERABLE
The networked world isn't just a little bigger, a little faster, and a little more complex. It is qualitatively different.”
– JAMES CLEICK, author, reporter, and essayist
Everyone & everything is inextricably
LINKED
We are especiallylinked to thisBLUE BALL
Population boom
Global connectedness
Wealthinequality
Technologyrush
Rapidurbanization
Ferocious consumption
Digitaltransformation
Environmentaldegradation
That brings us to the 7th megatrend
1
2
3
45
6
7
8
ENVIRONMENTALdegradation
7
Key challenge
Did you know? We are eating away our own natural life support systems.
As a species,we have much to bePROUD OF
… builtwonders
of the world
… landedon the moon
We have
… almost put a stop
to wars
… close toeliminated
child mortality
… tamedwild beasts
Climbing and clawing our way to be the top rung of the food chain
We have wonthe evolutionaryARMS RACE
In fact, we have
OVERRUNWe have cut down forest,drained swamps, dammed rivers, flooded plains, laid railroads and built skyscrapingmegacities
the planet
Our colonization of the planet has been a disaster for plants and wildlife
The bad news is that weDESTROY NATUREin the process
Historical records makes Homo sapiens look like an ecological serial killer.”
– YUVAL NOAH HARARI,professor of history, Hebrew University of Jerusalem and author of the international bestseller Sapiens, A Brief History of Humankind.
All the expertsgive us the sameMESSAGE
United Nations (IPCC), World Resources Institute,NASA, IUCN and WWF
The scale of damageto the natural ecosystemsthat are vital to our livesIS ALARMING
Up to 25% of the world’s food production may become lost due to environmental breakdown by 2050 unless action is taken.”
– UNEP, (United Nations Environment Programme)
More than 80% of the natural forests that once covered the Earth, have been destroyed.”
– World Resource Institute,Global Forests Resources Assessment 2015
Over the past few hundred years, humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history.”
– World Resource Institute,Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Population sizes of vertebrate species -mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish - have declined by 52 % the last 40 years.”
– World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Living Planet Report 2014
Our planet has lost more than half of its creatures since 1970
IN SHORT:
and the terror ofthe ecosystem
THE MASTER OF THE PLANET
We have become
It’s time to remember a factthat’s so obvious IT’S EASY TO FORGET
THE FOODyou eat
THE WATERyou drink
THE AIRyou breathe
THE FUELyou use
THE TIMBERin your house
THE FIBERSin your clothes
Are all products of this living
ECOSYSTEM
So, let’s stopdestroyingNATURE
Earth’s natural resources are the very foundation of our lives
Population boom
Global connectedness
Wealthinequality
Technologyrush
Rapidurbanization
Ferocious consumption
Digitaltransformation
Environmentaldegradation
That brings us to the 8th megatrend
1
2
3
45
6
7
8
inequality
8
Key challenge
Do we really want a society where a few have a lot and many have little?
The good news:Total global wealth just
US and Europa are the main drivers, but also emerging markets like Asia Pacific and China
HIT A NEW RECORD
New York City is ranked as the second richest city in the world after Tokyo
In China and India, millions have risen out of poverty to join the working MIDDLE CLASS
The bad news:The rich and poor gap
is not only chronic,IT KEEPS WIDENING
The top 1% wealthiest people now own 50% of all household wealth in the world
THE RICHEST of the rich are
getting richer
SOURCE: Credit Suisse and Oxfam
2 billion people live on less than $3 a day
SOURCE: World Bank
TOO LITTLE
Still, far too manyare living with far
71% of the world’spopulation remain
Living on $10 or less per day
SOURCE: Pew Research Centre
LOW INCOME OR POOR
The problemwith these kind of
They are just numbers and hardly touch us
STATISTICS1%
Hopefullythis touchesYOUR HEART
And motives you to care and act
Extreme unequalsocieties break with theDEMOCRATIC IDEAL
They are neither stable nor sustainable in the long run
Abraham Lincoln’s legendary definition of democracy: “Democracy is the government of the people, by the people, for the people.”
The world’s leading economists ties it alltogether for us
Growing income inequality is the biggest risk the world may face within the next 10 years. It has already squeezed the middle class in both developed and emerging economies.”
– World Economic Forum,The Global Risks Report 2014
The top 1 per cent have the best houses,the best educations, the best doctors, andthe best lifestyles, but there is one thing that money doesn't seem to have bought: and understanding that their fate is bound up with how the other 99 per cent live. Throughout history, this is something that the top 1 per cent eventually do learn. Too late.”
– Joseph E. Stiglitz,winner of the nobel price in economics
How can we make it bright for all?THE FUTURE?What about
The transformation starts in our mindTo transform our future, we must understand and learn from the past. Looking back on the 12,000 year history of humankind, there has really been minor changes in our way of thinking that has ignited monumental changes.We understood the importance of having a language, cultivating food crops, keeping clean, utilizing technology and working together.These five small changes in our mindset started the greatest revolutions the world has ever seen. Perhaps another small change in our way of thinking will be enough to make life on earth better for everyone including animals and plants.It might be, that the discoveries made by modern physicists hold the key to the greatest transformation of all time.
“The universe, including us, is made up of energy, not matter, and we are all connected”, the scientist say. What if they are right? Perhaps we only need to change our worldview, to discover that the essential character of life, is so much more than our physical bodies and the material world we see around us?Maybe we simply need to open our hearts and minds, to tune into the invisible and universal energy that connects us all?It could be, that when we start to get a sense of this underlying energy, we will naturally begin to honor ourselves and all other humans and life forms with the dignity they deserve. All the best wishes for a bright future.Regards,
Recommended books
About the authorHey, my name is Anders Lindgren. People who know me well, will label me as a content marketing specialist, digital pioneer, PR-veteran and futurist.I have two decades of experience as a marketing and communication director for some of the most renowned brands in the world, primarily PwC, AT&T and SopraSteria. Today, I work as partner for PLOT, a market strategy consulting firm, based in Oslo, Norway.Throughout my career I have been passionate about understanding the world around us, sharing insights and helping people and brands communicate in a way that makes them shine.
© 2016 Anders Lindgren.
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