1

The Persuadables:

How Recency Supercharges ROAS

Agenda

BACKSTORY: • Erwin Ephron and Recency Planning

METHODOLOGY: • 3 well-known CPG Brands

• Dimension 1: Heaviness of spending

• Dimension 2: Purchase cycle, household average

RESULTS: • Recency targeting works

• The Persuadables are ROAS magic

KEY TAKEAWAYS

2

Erwin Ephron and ‘Recency’

3

Kate Anderson

Female

32 years old

Married

2 Children

Chicago, IL, 60614

iPhone 6S

Samsung Tablet

Lenovo Laptop

Panasonic 55’ TV

People

Health

Game of Thrones

HGTV

Whole Foods

Macy’s

Tropicana OJ

Advil

Honda Pilot

Demographics:

Devices:

What She Reads:

What She Watches:

Where She Shops:

What She Buys:

What She Drives:

Testing the Hypothesis with a People-Based Approach

4

Methodology Summary

• Analyzed three campaigns for well-known CPG brands

• Each campaign had ~$2 ROAS overall

• Post-hoc analysis

• Segmented exposed audience by

• Spending level

• Purchase cycle

Hypothesis: Recency improves return on ad spend, especially among “Heavy Buyers”

5

3 Campaigns, 3 Well-Known Brands

• 3 campaigns ran before analysis, late 2015-2016

• Each had ~ $2 ROAS overall

6

Anonymous

Single Source HHs

EXPOSURE DATA

NCS Publisher Data

Nielsen Media Data

BUY DATA

Catalina Frequent Shopper

Card Data | 90MM HH

Nielsen Homescan All-Outlet Data

NCS Connects the Media People Consume with the Products They Buy

Linear TV

4.3 MM HHs

Addressable TV

39 MM HHs

Digital

100 MM HH

Mobile

80 MM HH

Radio

29K HH

7

Segmented by HH’s Position in Purchase Cycle

Calculated for each HH its average category purchase cycle, on prior 18 months’ spending

Analyzed where in the purchase cycle it

was when last reached by campaign

ad impression:

• “Early” = First four quintiles of average cycle

• “Late” = Fifth quintile = “Recency”, the last 20%

of the purchase cycle

8

Segmented Audience by Spend and Loyalty

Analyzed prior 12 months of category & brand

activity for HHs reached by campaign

Assigned each HH to a spending segment:

• Heavy (Top Third) Brand Spenders

• Medium (Med Third) Brand Spenders

• Light (Bottom Third) Brand Spenders

• Non-Brand Spenders

Assigned each HH to a loyalty segment:

• Loyalist – >75% $ with brand

• Switchers – 25-75% $ with brand

• Non-Loyalist - <25% with brand

9

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Late Early

RO

AS

Timing of Ads to HH Purchase Cycle

Recency Targeting Doubles ROAS

Recency Alone Works

10

Meet ‘The Persuadables,’ the Golden Square

Non-Spender Light Medium Heavy

PERSUADABLES Late

Early

11

‘The Persuadables’ are ROAS Magic

12

Heavy Spenders + Late in Cycle = $$$$

13

14

Segment Early Late Change Heavy-Light Terciles

Heavy $ 9.09 $ 21.38 135%

Medium $ 3.65 $ 5.31 45% Light $ 2.16 $ 3.43 59%

Loyalty Spectrum

Loyals $ 10.86 $ 13.14 21%

Switchers ROAS $ 4.97 $ 16.33 229%

Non-Loyals ROAS $ 3.71 $ 10.56 185%

Non-Brand Spenders

Non-Brand ROAS $ 0.47 $ 2.65 464%

Non-Cat ROAS $ 0.19 $ 0.16 -16%

Recency Can Drive Purchases – Across Spending and Loyalty Levels

15

Key Takeaways

Recency doubles ROAS

Targeting for recency does not limit reach

Purchase-cycle targeting improves ROAS for all category buyers

Recency targeting is actionable today

15