Trends, Challenges and Opportunities in the Personal Auto ... · Return on avg. surplus. Excluding...
Transcript of Trends, Challenges and Opportunities in the Personal Auto ... · Return on avg. surplus. Excluding...
Trends, Challenges and Opportunities in the Personal Auto
Insurance Industry
Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCUClinical Associate Professor of Finance, Risk Management & Insurance
Darla Moore School of Business ♦ University of South [email protected] ♦ 803.777.6782
March 16, 2018
2
Presentation Overview P/C Industry Financial Overview and Outlook Claim trends as a driver of underwriting performance
Drivers of Personal Lines Growth Price Exposure
Role of the Economy and Claiming Behavior
Personal Lines Growth Drivers
Personal Auto Claim Trend Analysis
Personal Auto Underwriting, Loss Ratio and Profitability
Auto Insurer Disruptors and InsurTech
3
P/C Insurance Industry Financial Overview
CATS Claims, Non-CAT Underwriting Losses in Personal and Commercial Auto
Impacted Insurer Balance Sheets
Industry Remains Strong, But Major Differences Between Personal and Commercial Lines Growth Prospects
3
P/C Industry Net Income After Taxes1991–2017E 2005 ROE*= 9.6% 2006 ROE = 12.7% 2007 ROE = 10.9% 2008 ROE = 0.1% 2009 ROE = 5.0% 2010 ROE = 6.6% 2011 ROAS1 = 3.5% 2012 ROAS1 = 5.9% 2013 ROAS1 = 10.2% 2014 ROAS1 = 8.4% 2015 ROAS = 8.4% 2016 ROAS = 6.2% 2017E ROAS =4.2%*
•ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 8.2% ROAS in 2014, 9.8% ROAS in 2013, 6.2% ROAS in 2012, 4.7% ROAS for 2011, 7.6% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009; 2016E is annualized figure based actual figure through Q3 of $31.8B.Sources: A.M. Best, ISO; USC RUM Center estimate (2017 based on actual NIAT of $22.352 though Q3 and ROAS of 4.2%).
$14,
178
$5,8
40$1
9,31
6$1
0,87
0 $20,
598
$24,
404 $3
6,81
9$3
0,77
3$2
1,86
5
$3,0
46$3
0,02
9
$62,
496
$3,0
43
$35,
204
$19,
456 $3
3,52
2$6
3,78
4$5
5,87
0$5
6,82
6$4
2,60
9$2
9,80
3
$38,
501
$20,
559
$44,
155
$65,
777
-$6,970
$28,
672
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E
Net income fell sharply in 2017
as high CAT losses took
their toll
$ Millions
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17*
Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2017:Q3
*Est. for 2017 based on actual ROAS of 4.45 through Q2; Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011-16 figures are estimates based on ROAS data. Note: Data for 2008-2014 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers.Source: NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best, Conning, USC RUM Center estimates.
1977:19.0% 1987:17.3%
1997:11.6% 2006:12.7%
1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2%
9 Years
ROEs in 2017 plunged to their lowest levels since
2001 and 9/11. This creates extreme pricing pressure.
ROE
1975: 2.4%
2013 9.8%
2016 6.2%
2015: 8.4%
2017E 4.2%
6
ROE: Property/Casualty Insurance by Major Event, 1987–2017E
*2017 Estimate based on actual ROAS through Q3 of 4.2% with USC Center for Risk and Uncertainty Management estimate for the full year.
Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guarantee in 2008 – 2014. Sources: ISO, Fortune; USC RUM Center.
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17*
P/C Profitability Is Influenced Both by
Cyclicality and Volatility
Hugo
Andrew, Iniki Northridge
Lowest CAT Losses in 15 Years
Sept. 11
Katrina, Rita, Wilma
4 Hurricanes
Financial Crisis*
(Percent)
Record Tornado Losses
Sandy
Low CATs
Harvey, Irma, Maria,
CA Wildfires
7
P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2017:Q3*
* Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers 2008--2014. Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=108.1; 2012:=103.2; 2013: = 96.1; 2014: = 97.0.; 2017 (est.) based on actual 104.1 through Q3 (Q3 combined ratio alone was 110.7). Sources: A.M. Best, ISO (2014-2015); Figure for 2010-2013 is from A.M. Best P&C Review and Preview, Feb. 16, 2016.
95.7
99.3101.1
106.5
102.5
96.4 97.0 97.8100.7
104.1101.0
92.6
100.898.4
100.1
107.5
115.8
90
100
110
120
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E
As Recently as 2001, Insurers Paid Out
Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in Earned Premiums Relatively
Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases
Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net
Losses
Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases
Higher CAT
Losses, Shrinking Reserve
Releases, Toll of Soft
Market
Sandy Impacts
Lower CAT
Losses
Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6)
Avg. CAT Losses,
More Reserve Releases
Cyclical Deterioration
Sharply higher CATs are driving
large underwriting losses and
pricing pressure
Personal Lines Combined Ratio: 2006–2017E
93.9 97
.6
104.
7
102.
6
98.3 99.4 10
0.7
102.
5
103.
5
102.
7 107.
8
102.
6
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E
Personal Lines Underwriting Losses Rose in 2017 Due to Record CATs and Adverse Auto Severity
Source: A.M. Best (2006-2016); USC RUM (2017E using actual 9 mo. YTD combined ratio of 102.8). 8
109.
411
0.2
118.
810
9.5 11
2.5
110.
210
7.6
104.
110
9.7
110.
2
102.
5 105.
491
.194
.510
4.4
100.
7 103.
8 107.
310
5.4
96.3
96.0
95.1
99.1
106.
2
102.
0
111.
1
112.
3
122.
3
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1617
E
Com
mer
cial
Lin
es C
ombi
ned
Rat
io
*2007-2012, 2017 figures exclude mortgage and financial guaranty segments. 17E = actual 9 mo. YTD figure of 106.2.Source: A.M. Best (1990-2016); ISO (2017E).
Commercial Lines Combined Ratio, 1990-2017F*
Commercial lines underwriting performance deteriorated
materially in 2017 as record CATs. diminishing prior year reserves,
rising loss cost trends and pricing pressure in some lines are
pushing combined ratios higher
9
11
CATS Eat Cars Too!Catastrophe Loss Update:
Major Driver of Rate Pressure
2017 Was One of the Costliest Years Ever for US Insurers:
Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, California Wildfires Exact a Huge Toll
11
12
$13.
0$1
1.3
$3.9
$14.
8$1
1.9
$6.3
$35.
8$7
.8 $16.
8$3
4.7
$10.
9$7
.7$3
0.1
$11.
8$1
4.9
$34.
6$3
6.1
$13.
1$1
5.5
$15.
2$2
1.6
$77.
0
$75.7
$14.
4$5
.0 $8.2
$38.
9$9
.1$2
7.2
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17*
U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses, 1989 – 2017 YTD*
*As of Dec. 31, 2017. Stated in 2017 dollars. Excludes NFIP losses.Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars.) Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute.
2017 is likely to become the second costliest year
ever for insured CAT losses in the US($ Billions, $ 2015)
12
13
Top 10 US Catastrophe Losses of 2017,by Insured Loss
(Insured Losses, 2017 Dollars, $ Billions)*
$7.3
$15.9$18.0
$21.9
$1.9$1.6$1.5$1.4$1.3$1.0$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
June Hailstorm March Storms FebruaryStorms
March Storms March Storms May ColoradoStorm
CaliforniaWildfires
HurricaneHarvey
Hurricane Irma Hurricane Maria
YTD insured CAT losses in the US totaled $72 billion by late
2017, the second costliest year on record, led by Hurricanes
Maria, Irma and HarveyNot all insured losses in 2017
were due to hurricanes.
More than $15B in other losses occurred from coast-to-coast.
*As of Nov. 14, 2017.Sources: PCS; Insurance Insider: http://www.insuranceinsider.com/-1270818/9.
14
Inflation Adjusted U.S. Catastrophe Losses by Cause of Loss, 1997–20161
0.2%2.0%7.0%
5.9%
6.7%
39.9%
38.2%
1. Catastrophes are defined as events causing direct insured losses to property of $25 million or more in 2016 dollars.2. Excludes snow.3. Does not include NFIP flood losses4. Includes wildland fires5. Includes civil disorders, water damage, utility disruptions and non-property losses such as those covered by workers compensation.Source: ISO’s Property Claim Services Unit.
Hurricanes & Tropical Storms, $161.1
Fires (4), $8.4
Events Involving Tornadoes (2), $168.1
Winter Storms, $28.2
Terrorism, $25.0
Other Wind/Hail/Flood (3), $29.7
Other (5), $0.8
Wind losses, by far, cause the most
catastrophe losses, even if hurricanes/TS
are excluded.
Tornado share of CAT losses is
rising
Insured cat losses from 1997-2016
totaled $421.2B, an average of $21.1B per year or $1.76B
per month
Winter storm losses were much above average in 2014/15 pushing
this share up
INVESTMENTS: THE NEW REALITY
15
Investment Performance is a Key Driver of Insurer Profitability
The “Trump Bump” Has Lifted Stock Markets and Interest Rates
Will the Gains Help Insurers?15
Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Income: 2000–2017E*
$38.9$37.1 $36.7
$38.7
$54.6
$51.2
$47.1 $47.6$49.2
$48.0 $47.3 $46.4 $47.2 $46.3 $47.2
$39.6
$49.5$52.3
$30
$40
$50
$60
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E*
Due to persistently low interest rates, investment income fell in 2012, 2013 and 2014 but showed a small (1.7%) increase in 2015—
though 2016 experienced another decline. Up ~2% in 2017.1 Investment gains consist primarily of interest and stock dividends. Sources: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.*2017 estimate based on annualized $35.4B actual figure through Q3 2017.
($ Billions) Investment earnings in 2017E were still ~14% below
their 2007 pre-crisis peak
Net Investment Yield on Property/ Casualty Insurance Invested Assets, 2007–2017E*
4.4
4.0
4.6 4.5
3.7 3.83.7
3.43.7
3.2 3.1 3.0
4.6
4.23.9
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E
The yield on invested assets remains low relative to pre-crisis yields. Fed rate increases beginning in late 2015 have pushed up some yields, albeit quite modestly. Shrinking of Fed’s balance sheet should help too in 2018
and beyond.Sources: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence; 2017estimate is based on ISO data through Q3 2017.
(Percent)
Investment yield in 2017 were down about 160
BP from pre-crisis levels
19
Brief P/C Insurance Growth Overview and Outlook
Drivers of Growth in 2018
Economic Growth Fuels Exposure & Record CAT Losses Are Pressuring Rates
Price Competition Remains Rational While Others Looks Towards M&A
19
20
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E
18F
Net Premium Growth (All P/C Lines): Annual Change, 1971—2018F(Percent)
1975-78 1984-87 2000-03
*Q3:2017 over Q3:2016. Shaded areas denote “hard market” periodsSources: A.M. Best (1971-2013), ISO (2014-16).
Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline
Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3-Year Decline Since 1930-33.
2018F: 4.5%2017:Q3: 4.1%
2016: 2.7%2015: 3.5%2014: 4.2
2013: 4.4%2012: +4.2%
Outlook2017E: 4.1%2018F: 4.5%
Y-o-Y Growth Rates, Direct Premiums Written, Commercial vs. Personal Lines,
2012:Q4 - 2017:Q3
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
12:Q
1
12:Q
212
:Q3
12:Q
4
13:Q
113
:Q2
13:Q
3
13:Q
414
:Q1
14:Q
2
14:Q
3
14:Q
415
:Q1
15:Q
2
15:Q
315
:Q4
16:Q
1
16:Q
216
:Q3
16:Q
4
17:Q
117
:Q2
17:Q
3
Personal LinesCommercial Lines
Sources: NAIC, via SNL Financial; ISO; Insurance Information Institute calculations.
Since 2014, personal lines Direct Premiums Written have generally grown faster than commercial lines DPW, and that growth has been less volatile.
Personal Lines growth is more
than 3 times that of
Commercial Lines
THE ECONOMY
25
The Strength of the Economy Will Greatly Influence Growth in Insurers’ Exposure
Base Across Most Lines
Claiming Behavior Is Influenced by the Economy as Well
25
26
US Real GDP Growth*
* Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators.Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 3/18; Insurance Information Institute.
2.7%
1.8%
-1.8
%1.
3%-3
.7%
-5.3
%-0
.3%
5.0%
2.3%
2.2% 2.6%
2.4%
0.1%
2.5%
1.3%
4.1%
2.0%
1.3%
3.1%
0.4%
2.7%
1.8%
3.5%
-0.9
%4.
6%4.
3%2.
1%2.
0% 2.6%
2.0%
0.9%
0.8% 1.
4%3.
5%2.
1%1.
2%3.
1%3.
2%2.
5%2.
5% 3.1%
2.9%
2.8%
2.5%
2.4%
2.2%
2.0%
-8.9%
4.5%
1.4%
4.1%
1.1% 1.
8% 2.5% 3.
6%3.
1%
-9%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
08:1
Q08
:2Q
08:3
Q08
:4Q
09:1
Q09
:2Q
09:3
Q09
:4Q
10:1
Q10
:2Q
10:3
Q10
:4Q
11:1
Q11
:2Q
11:3
Q11
:4Q
12:1
Q12
:2Q
12:3
Q12
:4Q
13:1
Q13
:2Q
13:3
Q13
:4Q
14:1
Q14
:2Q
14:3
Q14
:4Q
15:1
Q15
:2Q
15:3
Q15
:4Q
16:1
Q16
:2Q
16:3
Q16
:4Q
17:1
Q17
:2Q
17:3
Q17
:4Q
18:1
Q18
:2Q
18:3
Q18
:4Q
19:1
Q19
:2Q
19:3
Q19
:4Q
Demand for Insurance Should Increase in 2018-19 as GDP Growth Continues at a Steady and Perhaps Accelerating Pace and Gradually
Benefits the Economy Broadly
Real GDP Growth (%)
Recession began in Dec, 2007
The Q4:2008 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982 drop of 6.8%
2018 GDP forecasts were revised upwards by ~0.4%
due to tax reform, but effects my wane in 2019
First consecutive
quarters of 3%+ GDP growth since 2014
28
Consumer Confidence Index:Jan. 1987 – Dec. 2017
Source: The Conference Board; Wells Fargo Research.
Outlook: Consumers are optimistic about the future, which is consistent with expectations for stronger economic growth (consumers account for nearly 70% of all spending in the economy). Should positively influence
business investment.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 122.1 in Dec., close to its
post-recession high
29
16.9
16.5
16.1
13.2
10.4
11.6 12
.714
.4 15.5 16
.4 17.4
17.5
17.1
17.0
16.7
16.7
16.7
16.7
16.9
16.9
16.617
.117.5
17.8
17.4
910111213141516171819
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18F 19F 20F21F 22F 22F
(Millions of Units)
Auto/Light Truck Sales, 1999-2023F
New auto/light truck sales fell to the lowest level since the
late 1960s. Forecast for 2014-15 is still below 1999-2007 average of 17 million units,
but a robust recovery is well underway.
Job growth and improved credit market conditions
boosted auto sales to near record levels in
recent years
Truck, SUV purchases remain strong but have slumped a bit
Yearly car/light truck sales are slowing slightly, as demand tapers following the recovery from the recession. PP Auto premium might
grow by 3.5% - 5%.
Sales have returned to pre-
crisis levels
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (1/18 for 2018-19; 10/17 for 2019-23F; Insurance Information Institute.
30
(Millions of Units)
New Private Housing Starts, 1990-2023F
1.48
1.47 1.
62 1.64
1.57 1.60 1.
71 1.85 1.
96 2.07
1.80
1.36
0.91
0.55 0.59 0.61
0.78 0.
92 1.00 1.
11 1.17 1.20 1.
27 1.33 1.
40 1.43 1.45 1.48
1.351.
461.
291.
201.
011.
19
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18F19F20F21F22F23F
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (1/18 for 2018-19; 10/17 for 2019-23F; Insurance Information Institute.
Insurers Are Continue to See Meaningful Exposure Growth in the Wake of the “Great Recession” Associated with Home Construction: Construction Risk
Exposure, Surety, Commercial Auto; Potent Driver of Workers Comp Exposure
New home starts plunged 72% from 2005-2009; A net
annual decline of 1.49 million units, lowest since records began
in 1959
Job growth, low inventories of existing homes, still-low mortgage
rates and demographics should continue to stimulate new home
construction for several more years
31
US Unemployment Rate Forecast4.
5%4.
5% 4.6% 4.
8% 4.9% 5.
4%6.
1%6.
9%8.
1%9.
3% 9.6% 10
.0%
9.7%
9.6%
9.6%
8.9% 9.
1%9.
1%8.
7%8.
3%8.
2%8.
0%7.
8%7.
7%7.
6%7.
3%7.
0%6.
6%6.
2%6.
1%5.
7%5.
6%5.
4%5.
2%5.
0%4.
9%4.
9%4.
9%4.
7%4.
7%4.
4%4.
3%4.
1%4.
0%4.
0%3.
9%3.
8%3.
8%3.
8%3.
8%3.
7%
9.6%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
07:Q
107
:Q2
07:Q
307
:Q4
08:Q
108
:Q2
08:Q
308
:Q4
09:Q
109
:Q2
09:Q
309
:Q4
10:Q
110
:Q2
10:Q
310
:Q4
11:Q
111
:Q2
11:Q
311
:Q4
12:Q
112
:Q2
12:Q
312
:Q4
13:Q
113
:Q2
13:Q
313
:Q4
14:Q
114
:Q2
14:Q
314
:Q4
15:Q
115
:Q2
15:Q
315
:Q4
16:Q
116
:Q2
16:Q
316
:Q4
17:Q
117
:Q2
17:Q
317
:Q4
18:Q
118
:Q2
18:Q
318
:Q4
19:Q
119
:Q2
19:Q
319
:Q4
Rising unemployment eroded payrolls
and WC’s exposure base.
Unemployment peaked at 10% in late 2009.
* = actual; = forecastsSources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (1/18 edition); Insurance Information Institute.
2007:Q1 to 2019:Q4F*
Unemployment forecasts have been revised modestly downwards. Optimistic
scenarios put the unemployment as low as 3.6 by Q4 2018.
Jobless figures have been revised
downwards for 2018/19
The Nov/Dec. 2017
unemployment rate was 4.1%, a 17-year low
32
Personal Lines Growth Drivers
Rate and Exposure are Both Presently Important
Growth Drivers
33
Top Growth Factors: Personal Lines Rate: Favorable rate trends in both auto and home Adverse severity trends are pressuring personal auto
Record CAT losses in 2017 will further pressure comprehensive
Economic Strength: Economic growth, supported by low unemployment, rising consumer confidence are supporting strength in new auto sales, new home construction, tax cuts
Household Formation: Millennials are finally becoming car and home buyers in larger numbers, driving exposures upward
High Net Worth Consumers: This segment has seen consistent (and profitable) growth as the “wealth effect” grows
Driving More: Americans are behind the wheel more than ever
Market Discipline: Major personal lines insurers remain generally price disciplined
34
Monthly Change in Auto Insurance Prices, 1991–2018*
*Percentage change from same month in prior year; through Feb. 2018; seasonally adjustedNote: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns.Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Cyclical peaks in PP Auto tend to occur roughly every 7-10 years (early 1990s,
early 2000s, early and late 2010s)
“Hard” markets often tend to occur during recessionary
periods
Last pricing peak occurred in late
2010 at 5.3%, falling to 2.8% by Mar. 2012
Feb. 2018 reading of 9.7% is up from 7.6%
a year earlier. Current rate trend is strongest
since 2002-2003.
35
Personal Auto Insurance: Key CPI Cost Component Changes: 2018 vs. 2017*
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; USC Center for Risk and Uncertainty Management.
Percentage Change (%)
4.9% 4.4%
2.1%2.2%
9.7%
2.7%
0.1% 0.1%0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Ove
rall C
PI
Mot
or V
ehic
leIn
sura
nce
Mot
or V
ehic
leBo
dy W
ork
Mot
or V
ehic
leR
epai
rs
Mot
or V
ehic
lePa
rts
Out
patie
ntH
ospi
taliz
atio
n
Inpa
tient
Hos
pita
lizat
ion
Pres
crip
tion
Dru
gs
* February 2018 vs. February 2017.
Feb. 2018 reading of 9.7% is up from 7.6%
a year earlier. Current rate trend is strongest
since 2002-2003.
Hospitalization costs continue to
drive severity
36
Personal Auto Insurance: Key CPI Cost Component Changes: 2008 – 2017
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; USC Center for Risk and Uncertainty Management.
Percentage Change (%)
3.8%
30.6%
13.8%
54.3%
22.8%
9.5%5.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Ove
rall
CPI
Mot
orVe
hicl
eIn
sura
nce
Mot
orVe
hicl
eBo
dy W
ork
New
Vehi
cles
New
Car
s
Use
d C
ars
Med
ical
Car
e Ite
ms
The price of auto insurance increased by
nearly four times the overall pace of inflation
from 2008-2017 as frequency and severity trends deteriorated as
the economy recovered and vehicles repair and
medical costs rose
37
$119
.7
$128
.0 $139
.7 $151
.2
$159
.6
$158
.5
$157
.2
$160
.1
$163
.3
$168
.1
$174
.9
$183
.5
$192
.5 $206
.6 $220
.0 $234
.0
$160
.3
$159
.6
$157
.3
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
$240
$260
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F
PP Auto premiums written continue to recover from a period of flat growth attributable to the weak economy impacting new vehicle sales, car choice, and increased
price sensitivity among consumers
Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2016); USC RUM (2017F-2018F).
Private Passenger Auto InsuranceNet Written Premium, 2000–2018F
$ Billion
PPA NWP volume in 2017 was up an estimated $62.8B or 39.9% since the
2009 trough; By 2017 the gain is expected to be $76.8B or 48.9%
PPA will generate $10B - $14B in new premiums annually
through 2018
Direct Premiums Written: Pvt. Passenger Auto Percent Change by State, 2007-2016
Source: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Insurance Information Institute.
59
.8
51
.6
48
.5
45
.6
42
.8
42
.8
41
.6
41
.1
40
.6
40
.4
40
.2
35
.5
33
.3
32
.7
32
.6
32
.2
32
.2
31
.7
30
.8
30
.0
29
.5
29
.3
29
.3
29
.0
28
.8
28
.7
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
TX CO ND MI OK SC GA UT SD FL NE TN OR WI LA AL IA US MO KY DE KS NC NY ID IN
Top 25 States
Direct Premiums Written: Pvt. Passenger AutoPercent Change by State, 2007-2016
Source: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Insurance Information Institute.
28
.6
27
.9
26
.8
26
.7
26
.5
26
.2
26
.0
26
.0
25
.9
24
.5
24
.5
24
.3
22
.6
22
.6
22
.3
22
.1
21
.6
21
.6
19
.0
18
.2
15
.7
14
.1
13
.9
13
.7
10
.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
VA AR MT DC WA NJ RI MN MD MS CA OH WY IL NV MA AZ NM CT PA NH VT AK WV ME
Bottom 25 States
Direct Premiums Written: Commercial AutoPercent Change by State, 2007-2016
Source: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Insurance Information Institute.
80
.7
42
.0
30
.7
28
.0
26
.1
23
.8
22
.3
21
.6
20
.0
18
.6
16
.4
16
.0
15
.6
15
.3
15
.0
14
.6
14
.4
13
.5
13
.2
12
.6
12
.5
12
.4
12
.2
12
.2
11
.8
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
ND TX NE DC MI KS OK IL NY IA AR MT CA CO MN WA US GA MO FL TN PA LA WI KY
ND’s energy boom has fueled growth
in every line
Top 25 States
Direct Premiums Written: Commercial AutoPercent Change by State, 2007-2016
Source: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Insurance Information Institute.
10
.7
9.7
8.8
8.7
8.3
8.0
7.6
7.0
7.0
6.2
5.5
5.4
4.0
3.0
2.1
1.0
-0.5
-1.9
-2.6
-3.9
-4.3
-5.8
-6.1
-8.3
-21
.3
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
ID NJ MS OH OR ME NV MA VA UT CT SC MD NC NM WY NH WV RI AZ VT AL AK HI SD
Bottom 25 States
Auto Average Expenditure 2015: Highest 25 States
Sources: NAIC via SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute.
1,2
65
.7
1,2
34
.8
1,2
31
.8
1,2
31
.4
1,1
90
.4
1,1
85
.3
1,1
48
.0
1,1
45
.7
1,0
58
.5
1,0
48
.6
1,0
16
.8
98
5.4
93
4.2
89
6.5
88
9.0
88
4.2
87
8.2
87
2.4
85
7.4
85
5.3
85
3.5
84
3.9
84
1.5
82
8.0
82
7.3
9.0
0.0
250.0
500.0
750.0
1,000.0
1,250.0
1,500.0
NJ NY LA MI DC FL RI DE MA CT MD NV TX GA US WA PA AK CO WV SC AZ CA OR MS OK
Auto Average Expenditure 2015: Lowest 25 States
Sources: NAIC via SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute.
80
3.6
4
80
1.9
7
78
7.7
4
78
4.1
0
77
5.0
3
76
4.7
2
76
2.5
6
75
0.8
5
74
5.0
4
73
7.5
9
73
6.4
3
72
2.8
9
70
2.5
9
69
8.4
5
69
2.5
0
68
1.5
4
68
0.1
8
66
6.2
4
66
4.8
1
65
6.6
4
65
5.3
7
63
7.5
4
61
7.7
3
61
5.7
8
59
9.0
3
9.0
0.0
250.0
500.0
750.0
1,000.0
IL KY MN UT NH HI NM VA MO TN AR AL OH KS MT NE VT IN WI WY NC ND ME SD IA ID
44
Homeowners InsuranceNet Written Premium, 2000–2018F
$45.8$49.5
$52.2$54.8 $55.2
$61.1$63.5
$66.9$71.9
$77.0$79.5 $80.2 $81.5 $82.7
$57.5$56.2
$32.4
$40.0
$35.2
$30$35$40$45$50$55$60$65$70$75$80$85$90$95
$100
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F
Sources: A.M. Best; USC RUM Center.
$ Billions Homeowners insurance NWP continues to rise (up 152% 2000-2017E) despite very little unit
growth during the real estate crash. Reasons include rate increases, especially in coastal
zones, ITV endorsements (e.g., “inflation guards”), compulsory for mortgaged properties
and resumption of home building activity
The Homeowners line will generate about
$1.5B in new premiums annually through 2018
Direct Premiums Written: Homeowners MPPercent Change by State, 2007-2016
Source: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Insurance Information Institute.
85
.7
82
.9
82
.0
78
.7
77
.9
75
.0
74
.3
69
.0
68
.4
66
.7
66
.3
65
.1
65
.1
63
.3
63
.0
62
.2
61
.9
55
.5
55
.5
53
.4
52
.3
51
.9
50
.8
50
.1
49
.6
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
SD OK CO NE ND WY MT MN TN GA KS MO AR TX IA KY WI DE ID NM IN UT OH SC NC
Top 25 States
Direct Premiums Written: Homeowners MPPercent Change by State, 2007-2016
Source: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence, Insurance Information Institute.
47
.9
47
.0
46
.4
45
.5
45
.2
44
.9
43
.3
42
.4
42
.0
41
.0
40
.9
40
.3
39
.3
38
.9
38
.2
37
.4
34
.3
33
.8
31
.7
30
.3
27
.2
26
.8
18
.9
17
.5
17
.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
CT RI VA ME NJ AL MS WA MD MA US NH PA WV OR LA AZ NY DC AK MI VT CA HI NV
Bottom 25 States
47
State of the Personal Lines Market
Auto Frequency and Severity Are an Immediate Challenge
Homeowners Majorly Impacted by CATs in 2017
47
48
Return on Net Worth: All P-C Lines vs. Homeowners & Pvt. Pass. Auto, 1990-2016*
*Latest available.**Excludes 1992, the year of Hurricane Andrew. If 1992 is included the resulting homeowners RNW is 2.2%Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
US All LinesUS HomeUS PP Auto
(Percent)Average RNW: 1990-2016*
All P-C Lines: 7.7% PP Auto: 7.6%
Homeowners: 4.9%**
Homeowners is Now Outperforming Pvt.Pass. Auto and P-C Industry as a Whole. HO Volatility is Associated Primarily With Coastal Exposure Issues
Excluding 1992’s Hurricane Andrew
Return on Net Worth: US Personal Auto, 2005-2016
0.7%
13.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Personal Fortune 500
Rising claim costs has been a factor in keeping auto insurer
ROEs quite low
49
Auto Insurance Profitability Remains Well Below Pre-Crisis Levels (12% vs. ~1%) and Far Below the Fortune 500 (13% vs. ~1%)
.SOURCE: National Association of Insurance Commissioners.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
U.S. PP Auto
Return on Net Worth for Private Passenger Auto Insurance: U.S., 2000–2016
Source: NAIC via SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute.
Average 2000–2016U.S.: 5.7%
Private Passenger Auto Combined Ratio: 1993–2017E
101.
710
1.3
101.
310
1.0
109.
510
7.9
104.
298
.494
.395
.195
.5 98.3 10
0.2
101.
310
1.0
102.
010
2.1
101.
610
2.3
104.
610
6.3
106.
5
99.5 10
1.1
103.
5
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E
Private Passenger Auto Underwriting Performance Is Showing the Strains of Rising Frequency (and Severity) Trends in Many States
51Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2016); USC RUM Center (2017E).
Homeowners Insurance Combined Ratio: 1990–2017E
113.
011
7.7
158.
411
3.6
101.
0 109.
410
8.2
111.
4 121.
710
9.3
98.2
94.4 10
0.3
89.0 95
.611
6.6
105.
810
6.9
122.
310
4.1
90.4
92.4
91.9
93.2
104.
0118.
411
2.7 12
1.7
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E
1
Homeowners Performance Had Improved Markedly Since 2011/12’s Large Cat Losses…until 2017’s Record
Catastrophe Loss Activity.
52
Hurricane Ike
Hurricane Sandy
Record tornado activity
Hurricane Andrew
Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2016); USC RUM Center (2017E).
Hurricanes Harvey, Irma,
Maria, CA Wildfires
Commercial Auto Combined Ratio: 1993–2017F
112.
1
112.
0
113.
0
115.
9
102.
7
95.2
92.9
92.1
92.4 94
.1 96.8 99
.1
97.8
103.
4
106.
8
106.
7
103.
3 108.
8
110.
4
109.
9
118.
1
115.
7
116.
2
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17F
Commercial Auto Results Are Challenged as Rate Gains Have Yet to Fully Offset Adverse Frequency and Severity Trends
53Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2016); USC RUM Center (2017E).
54
Change in Commercial Rate Renewals, by Line: 2017:Q3
Source: Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers; USC Center for Risk and Uncertainty Management.
Percentage Change (%)
0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9%
7.3%
-2.3%-0.8% -0.7% -0.4%
0.1% 0.1%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Wor
kers
Com
p
Gen
eral
Liab
ility
Cyb
er
Um
brel
la
Sure
ty
Busi
ness
Inte
rrupt
ion
Con
stru
ctio
n
D&O EP
L
Com
mer
cial
Prop
erty
Com
mer
cial
Auto
Commercial Property, Business Interruption
will need to reflect record CAT losses and
pressure from reinsurance markets
Note: CIAB data cited here are based on a survey. Rate changes earned by individual insurers can and do vary, potentially substantially.
Commercial Auto was only major line with materially positive renewals in 2017
55
Claim Trends in Private Passenger Auto Insurance
Rising Frequencies and Severities in Many Coverages
Will that Pattern Be Sustained?
Passenger Vehicle Collision Coverage Insurance Losses by Vehicle Type, 2014-2016 Model Years
8.3%
6.4% 6.5%7.4%
$5,292
$5,210 $5,203
$5,256
$5,000
$5,100
$5,200
$5,300
$5,400
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Passenger Cars &Minivans
Pickups SUVs All
Frequency Severity
Cars and minivans have the highest collision claim frequencies and severities
56.SOURCE: Highway Loss Data Institute.
A Half Century-Plus of Auto Insurance:Frequency vs. SeverityIn the Long Run, Frequency Falls. Severity Increases.
*Four quarters ending in Q3:2017Sources: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, Insurance Services Office, Insurance Information Institute.
Frequency Severity
7.92
2.61
4.22
1.23
3.57
0.91
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Property Damage Bodily Injury
Cla
ims
per
10
0 I
nsu
red
Veh
icle
s
$183$1,143$1,288
$7,553
$3,673
$16,007
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
PropertyDamage
Bodily Injury
Cla
im S
ever
ity
1963 1988 2017*
58
Bodily Injury: Severity Trend Is Up, Frequency Decline Returning?
2.1% 1.7%3.6%
1.8%
4.3%5.6%
7.6%
-5.4%-3.8% -4.0% -4.2%
-2.2%
0.0%
-1.1%
3.4%
0.0%
-2.2%
3.0%2.0%
5.9%5.7%4.7%
2.9%1.1%
0.0% 0.0%
-8%-6%-4%
-2%0%2%4%
6%8%
10%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Severity Frequency
Annual Change, 2005 through 2017*
BI Severity Trend is a Major Cost Driver
*2017 figure is for the 4 quarters ending 2017:Q3.Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
59
Property Damage Liability: Severity Up and Frequency Flat
1.8% 1.9%
4.1%3.5%
6.3% 6.0%
4.2%
-1.6%
-3.5% -3.4%
0.6% 0.6%
-0.3%
1.4% 1.4%0.8%
-1.1%
2.9%3.6%
2.0% 2.0%
-0.4%
0.4%0.9% 1.2%0.3%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Severity Frequency
Annual Change, 2005 through 2017*
Severity/Frequency Trends Have Been Volatile, But Rising Severity since 2011 Is a Concern
*2017 figure is for the 4 quarters ending 2017:Q3.Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
60
PIP: Severity Trend Is Up, Frequency Decline Returning?
-6.5%
-0.8%
10.9%
-2.1% -2.8%
6.2%
1.8%3.3%3.2%
-1.2%
-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Severity Frequency
Annual Change, 2013 through 2017*
No-Fault (PIP) Trends Have Been Volatile
*2017 figure is for the 4 quarters ending 2017:Q3.Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
61
Collision Coverage: Severity & Frequency Trends Are Both Higher in 2017*
2.8%1.3%
4.2%
1.4%
5.7% 5.1%
-0.1%
-1.8%
-3.6%
2.5%
-2.4% -1.8%
4.4%
1.2% 1.2%0.3%
3.9%3.1%
0.1% 0.5%
-2.3%
-0.1%-1.4%-0.5%
0.9%2.3%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Severity Frequency
Annual Change, 2005 through 2017*
The Recession, High Fuel Prices Helped Temper Frequency and Severity, But this Trend Has Clearly Reversed, Consistent with
Experience from Past Recoveries*Four quarters ending with 2017 Q3. Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
62
Comprehensive Coverage: Frequency and Severity Trends Are Volatile
15.4% 15.3%
-14.6%
6.5%
-1.3%
21.6%
10.7%
-9.8%-6.3%
1.3%5.8%
-8.9%-5.6%
2.1%
-1.1%
15.5%
-1.4% -1.5%
12.6%
-8.1%-5.9% -2.1%
3.5%
-3.1%
1.8%6.2%
-20%-15%-10%
-5%0%
5%10%15%20%25%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Severity Frequency
Annual Change, 2005 through 2017*
Weather Creates Volatility for Comprehensive Coverage. Comprehensive Losses Were Up 24.9% in Q3:2017 Due Largely to
Hurricanes Harvey and Irma
Severe weather is a principal cause of the spikes in both
frequency and severity
*2017 figure is for the 4 quarters ending with 2017:Q3.Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
63
Loss Ratio Analysis:Private Passenger Auto
Insurance
Lost Ratios Have Generally Risen Over the Past Several Years
Private Passenger Auto Combined Ratio: 1993–2017E
101.
710
1.3
101.
310
1.0
109.
510
7.9
104.
298
.494
.395
.195
.5 98.3 10
0.2
101.
310
1.0
102.
010
2.1
101.
610
2.3
104.
610
6.3
106.
5
99.5 10
1.1
103.
5
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E
Private Passenger Auto Underwriting Performance Is Showing the Strains of Rising Frequency (and Severity) Trends in Many States
64Sources: A.M. Best (1990-2016); USC RUM Center (2017E).
US Pvt. Passenger Auto Net Combined Ratio, 2005-2016
95.1%
95.6%
98.3%
100.2%
101.3%
101.0%
102.0%
102.1%
101.6%
102.3%
104.6%
106.3%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
The increase in frequency and severity of claims is
driving up insurer payouts relative to premiums
65
Private Passenger Auto Insurance Loss Ratios Have Been Rising for A Decade and ROEs Have Been Falling.
SOURCE: National Association of Insurance Commissioners data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence, A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.
66
Combined Liability and Phys. DamageLoss Ratio Up: Private Passenger Auto, 2012 – 2017*
79.7% 80.2% 80.1%
82.6%
86.7%
84.7%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Loss Ratio
The Loss Ratio Across All Physical Damage Coverages Has Trended Generally Upward for Years
*2017 figure is for the 4 quarters ending in 2017:Q3Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
67
All Liability Coverages Loss Ratio Is Up:Private Passenger Auto, 2012 – 2017*
82.3%
85.0%83.1%
87.7%
91.4%
89.0%
76%78%80%
82%84%86%88%
90%92%94%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Loss Ratio
Bodily Injury Loss Ratios Have Trended Generally Upward for Years
*2017 figure is for the 4 quarters ending in 2017:Q3Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
68
All Phys. Dam Coverages Loss Ratio Up:Private Passenger Auto, 2012 – 2017*
72.2%
74.5%75.3%
78.1%
80.8% 81.2%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Loss Ratio
The Loss Ratio Across All Physical Damage Coverages Has Trended Generally Upward for Years
*2017 figure is for the 4 quarters ending in 2017:Q3Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
69
Collision Loss Ratio Trending Upward:Private Passenger Auto, 2010 – 2017*
76.9%
73.8%
67.7%69.3% 69.4%
73.5%74.9%
76.7%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Loss Ratio
Collision Loss Ratios Were Trending Steadily Upward Until Early 2017
*2017 figure is for the 4 quarters ending in 2017:Q2Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
70
Comprehensive Loss Ratio Is Elevated:Private Passenger Auto, 2010 – 2017*
88.2%
71.0%76.5%
71.4%
85.8%92.9%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Loss Ratio
The Comprehensive Loss Ratio Stands at Mulit-Year High, Pushed Upward in 2017 by Record CAT Activity
*2017 figure is for the 4 quarters ending in 2017:Q3Source: ISO/PCI Fast Track data; Insurance Information Institute
71
A Few Factors Driving Adverse Private Passenger Auto Loss Trends
More Jobs, Better Economy, More People Driving, More Expensive
Cars, Higher Speed Limits…
America is Driving More Again: 2000-2017Percent Change, Miles Driven*
*Moving 12-month total vs. prior year through December. Sources: Federal Highway Administration; Insurance Information Institute.
1.7%2.1%
1.5%
2.2%1.9%
1.0%0.4% 0.3%
-2.1%
-0.3%
0.8%
-0.3%
0.1%0.6%
1.9%
2.7%
1.2%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017*-2.5%
-1.5%
-0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
2.5%
3.5%
Fastest Growth in More Than a
Decade
Tremendous Growth In Miles Driven. The More People Drive, the More Frequently They Get Into Accidents.
Why Are People Driving More Miles?Jobs? 2006–2017:Q2
Billions of Miles Driven in Prior Year
Sources: Federal Highway Administration; Seasonally Adjusted Employed from Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED; Insurance Institute for Highway Safety; Insurance Information Institute.
People Drive to and from Work and Drive to Entertainment. Out of Work, They Curtail Their Movement.
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
2,800
2,850
2,900
2,950
3,000
3,050
3,100
3,150
3,200
3,250
06:Q
106
:Q3
07:Q
107
:Q3
08:Q
108
:Q3
09:Q
109
:Q3
10:Q
110
:Q3
11:Q
111
:Q3
12:Q
112
:Q3
13:Q
113
:Q3
14:Q
114
:Q3
15:Q
115
:Q3
16:Q
116
:Q3
17:Q
1
Miles Driven (left axis) # Employed (right axis)
Millions Employed
Recession
More People Working and Driving=> More Collisions, 2006-2017:Q2Number Employed, Millions
Sources: Seasonally Adjusted Employed from Bureau of Labor Statistics; Rolling four-quarter average frequency from Fast Track Monitoring System; Insurance Information Institute.
When People are Out of Work, They Drive Less. When They Get Jobs,They Drive to Work, Helping Drive Claim Frequency Higher.
5.25.35.45.55.65.75.85.96.06.16.2
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
06:Q
1
06:Q
3
07:Q
1
07:Q
3
08:Q
1
08:Q
3
09:Q
1
09:Q
3
10:Q
1
10:Q
3
11:Q
1
11:Q
3
12:Q
1
12:Q
3
13:Q
1
13:Q
3
14:Q
1
14:Q
3
15:Q
1
15:Q
3
16:Q
1
16:Q
3
17:Q
1
Number Employed (left axis)Collision Claim Frequency (right axis)
Overall Collision Claims Per 100 Insured Vehicles
Recession
More Miles Driven => More Collisions 2006-2017:Q2Billions of Miles Driven in Prior Year
Sources: Federal Highway Administration; Rolling four-quarter average frequency from Fast Track Monitoring System; Insurance Institute for Highway Safety; Insurance Information Institute.
The More Miles People Drive, the More Likely They are to Get in an Accident, Helping Drive Claim Frequency Higher.
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.2
2,7502,8002,8502,9002,9503,0003,0503,1003,1503,2003,250
06:Q
1
06:Q
3
07:Q
1
07:Q
3
08:Q
1
08:Q
3
09:Q
1
09:Q
3
10:Q
1
10:Q
3
11:Q
1
11:Q
3
12:Q
1
12:Q
3
13:Q
1
13:Q
3
14:Q
1
14:Q
3
15:Q
1
15:Q
3
16:Q
1
16:Q
3
17:Q
1
Miles Driven (left axis)Collision Claim Frequency (right axis)
Overall Collision Claims Per 100 Insured Vehicles
Recession
Does Spending on Vehicles Affect Claim Severity?
Annual Change, 2005 through 2017
Source: Fast Track Monitoring System; Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey (vehicle purchases –net outlay) Insurance Information Institute.
As the Economy Has Gotten Better, People Are Spending More on Vehicles – When Those Cars Are in Accidents, Severity Increases.
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Collision Severity (left scale)
Previous 6-yr avg vehicle purchases (right scale)
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A Few Factors Driving Adverse Private Passenger Auto Loss Trends
More Jobs, Better Economy, More People Driving, Lower Gas
Prices, More Expensive Cars, Higher Speed Limits…
79
-0.4
%
0.1%
-2.5
%
2.2%
1.0%
3.6%
-1.4
%
0.4% 0.9%
-0.1
%
-3.0
%
-9.5
%
-9.0
%
-2.4
% -0.1
%
3.1%
-2.9
%
0.1%
8.0%
5.0%
-1.0
%
-7.0
%
-5.9
%
2.2%
1.5% 2.0%
0.7%
-12%-10%
-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 1617E
Annual Change (%)
*2017 estimate from NSC data.Source: National Safety Council.
Motor vehicle deaths saw their
largest increase in 50 years in 2016
U.S. Annual Change in Automobile Deaths, 1991- 2017E*
Driving Has Been Getting Safer For Decades, But Recent Trend Is Discouraging—40,200 Deaths in 2016—Little Improvement in 2017
Sharp increase in
use of seatbelts
Steep drop due to less
driving during the Great
Recession
2015/16 is the largest 2-year escalation in
53 years
80
Collision Repair Cost Drivers
The Bottom Line:High Tech Vehicles Are Expensive
to Repair
“Key to Key”: Vehicle Repair Times Are Increasing, 2013-2017
Driveable+0.6 days (+18.9%)
Non-Driveable+2.3 days (+20.3%)
Total+1.0 days (+15.2%)
Source: CCC accessed via PropertyCasualty360.com at: https://www.propertycasualty360.com/native/?mvi=204cd819dffd479f9551e33dc691c4a8&mvpf=e9c65c7f741c449bbb8c0ebe08e5a1c9&mvpflabel=&et=editorial&bu=PC360&cn=20180305&src=EMC-Email&pt=Daily&slreturn=20180205153245
Direct Repair Program Vehicle Volume by Repair Cost Range and Drivability, 2013-2017
Non-drivable share has been
decliningSource: CCC accessed via PropertyCasualty360.com at: https://www.propertycasualty360.com/native/?mvi=204cd819dffd479f9551e33dc691c4a8&mvpf=e9c65c7f741c449bbb8c0ebe08e5a1c9&mvpflabel=&et=editorial&bu=PC360&cn=20180305&src=EMC-Email&pt=Daily&slreturn=20180205153245
Repair costs have been
drifting upward
DRP Cycle Time (Avg. Vehicle-in-to-Out Days) by Repair Cost Range, 2017
Source: CCC accessed via PropertyCasualty360.com at: https://www.propertycasualty360.com/native/?mvi=204cd819dffd479f9551e33dc691c4a8&mvpf=e9c65c7f741c449bbb8c0ebe08e5a1c9&mvpflabel=&et=editorial&bu=PC360&cn=20180305&src=EMC-Email&pt=Daily&slreturn=20180205153245
Cycle time increases almost
exponentially with repair cost
DRP Shop Productivity by Repair Cost Range, 2017
Source: CCC accessed via PropertyCasualty360.com at: https://www.propertycasualty360.com/native/?mvi=204cd819dffd479f9551e33dc691c4a8&mvpf=e9c65c7f741c449bbb8c0ebe08e5a1c9&mvpflabel=&et=editorial&bu=PC360&cn=20180305&src=EMC-Email&pt=Daily&slreturn=20180205153245
Productivity of repairs falls of
dramatically for more expensive jobs
DRP Repair Customer Satisfaction by Repair Cost Range, 2017
Source: CCC accessed via PropertyCasualty360.com at: https://www.propertycasualty360.com/native/?mvi=204cd819dffd479f9551e33dc691c4a8&mvpf=e9c65c7f741c449bbb8c0ebe08e5a1c9&mvpflabel=&et=editorial&bu=PC360&cn=20180305&src=EMC-Email&pt=Daily&slreturn=20180205153245
Unsurprisingly, customer satisfaction with both the repair shop and insurer
drops as repair cost (and therefore repair time) rises
DRP Repair Customer Satisfaction by Repair Cost Range, 2017
Source: CCC accessed via PropertyCasualty360.com at: https://www.propertycasualty360.com/native/?mvi=204cd819dffd479f9551e33dc691c4a8&mvpf=e9c65c7f741c449bbb8c0ebe08e5a1c9&mvpflabel=&et=editorial&bu=PC360&cn=20180305&src=EMC-Email&pt=Daily&slreturn=20180205153245
Unsurprisingly, customer satisfaction with both the repair shop and insurer
drops as repair cost (and therefore repair time) rises
Electric Car Stock in the US: 2005–2016*
1.1
1.1
1.1
2.6
74.7
171.
4
290.
2 404.
1
563.
7
2.6
3.8 21
.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Household energy demand arising from vehicles will continue to soar
*Includes plug-inn vehicles and hybrids.Source: International Energy Agency, 2017 Global Electric Vehicle Outlook accessed at:
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf; USC RUM. 87
(Thousands of Cars)The number of EVs in the US is increasing
exponentially
Electric Car Market Share in the US: 2010–2016*
0.01%
0.17%
0.44%
0.75% 0.74%0.67%
0.91%
0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.9%1.0%
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
*Includes plug-inn vehicles and hybrids.Source: International Energy Agency, 2017 Global Electric Vehicle Outlook accessed at:
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf; USC RUM. 88
(Market Share)
EVs market share in the US is growing,
rapidly but us still tiny
89
INDUSTRY DISRUPTORS
Technology, Society and the Economy Are All
Changing at a Rapid PaceReality vs. Drinking the Silicon Valley Kool Aid
89
90
The Internet of Things and the Insurance Industry Value Chain
Source: Willis Capital Markets & Advisory; Insurance Information Institute.
Who owns the data? Where does It flow? Who does the analytics? Who is the capital provider?
91
The Sharing Economy Has Grown—And Attracted Political Scrutiny
There’s no question that the hype around autonomous vehicles far exceeds the reality
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The Internet of Things and the Insurance Industry
The “Internet of Things” will create trillions in economic value throughout the global economy by 2025
What opportunities, challenges will this create for insurers?
What are the impact on the insurance industry “value chain”?Sources: McKinsey Global Institute, The Internet of Things: Mapping the Value Beyond the Hype,
June 2015; Insurance Information Institute.
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Media is Obsessed with Driverless Vehicles: Often Predicting the Demise of Auto Insurance
By 2035, it is estimated that 25% of new vehicle
sales could be fully autonomous models
Source: Boston Consulting Group.
Questions Are auto insurers
monitoring these trends? How are they reacting? Will Google or (Amazon)
take over the industry? Will the number of auto
insurers shrink? How will liability shift?
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A Few of the (Many) Technological Hurdles Facing Autonomous VehiclesTech Hurdle Discussion of ProblemInability to Operate Safely in All Weather Conditions
Heavy rain, snow, fog and compromise radar and lidar sensor technologies, requiring humans to intervene
Driving Safely Despite Unclear Lane Markings
Vehicle can have difficultly making guidance decisions when lines on roads are faint or absent.
Reliably Recognizing Traffic Lights that Are Not Working Properly
If lights are out (e.g., power outage), vehicle has no understanding of how to operate. Requires that a machine be taught human intuition understand cooperation among multiple vehicles as well as external input from non-drivers (e.g., police)
Ability to Respond to Spoken Commands or Hand Signals from Law Enforcement, Highway Safety Employees, Construction Crews, Pedestrians, Cyclists, etc.
Verbal instructions, eye contact, hand signals, gesturing all play extremely important roles in driving, more so than is generally appreciated or understood.
Source: Adapted from: Technologists Face Hurdles Before They Take Wheel, John Markoff, New York Times, June 8, 2017.
I.I.I. Poll: Driverless CarsWhy Americans Would Not Want to Ride in a Driverless Car, May 20161
1 Based on those who would not ride in a driverless car. Respondents could give more than one answer. Source: Insurance Information Institute Annual Pulse Survey.
84%74% 72%
62% 59%
42%36%
1% 1%0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Would NotFeel Safe
Don't Wantto Give Up
Control
ComputerCould BeHacked
Cars WouldBe Too
Expensive
Would BeLiable for
AnyAccident
WouldCollect
PersonalData
Would BeBoring
None ofThese
Don’t Know
Safety Concerns Are Paramount Among Those Who Would Avoid Driverless Cars.
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Car Subscription Services: A Threat to Personal Auto?
Liberty Mutual, Assurant, Chubb have struck multiple deals
Volvo, Ford, Cadillac, Porsche, BMW and Mercedes-Benz have either launched or announced plans to launch car subscription models
Source: CB Insights accessed 3/14/18 at: https://www.cbinsights.com/research/insurance-car-subscription-partnerships/
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Car Subscription Services: A Threat to Personal Auto? Ford’s Canvas
programs states that it provides: BI & PD Liability $300K combined single limit), PIP, Med Pay, UI/UIM, Collision & Comprehensive ($500 deductible), Roadside Assistance, Rental Reimbursement
No flexibility in coverage but can use own auto insurance as primary and Canvas as excess
Source: www.drivecanvas.com accessed 3/14/18.
99
Car Subscription Services: Insurers Partnering with US Car Subscription and Sharing Programs
Source: CB Insights accessed 3/14/18 at: https://www.cbinsights.com/research/insurance-car-subscription-partnerships/
The car subscription
service is tiny—and how much it
will grow is uncertain;For auto
manufacturers car subscriptions are
a variation on leasing. For auto
insurers, there is a more meaningful distinction (e.g.,
personal or commercial exposure)
100
Distribution Trends
Distribution by Channel Type Continues to Evolve Around
the World
101
Personal Lines Distribution Channels, Direct vs. Independent Agents, 1972-2015
Source: Insurance Information Institute; based on data from Conning and A.M. Best.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
72 8384 8586 8788 8990 9192 9394 9596 9798 9900 0102 0304 0506 0708 0910 1112 1314 15Direct Independent Agents
Independent agents have lost significant personal lines market share since the early 1970s. That
trend trend slowed from 2000-2007, but accelerated during the financial crisis, though it
may be slowing again.
102
INSURANCE TECHNOLOGY:FIN TECH ZEROES IN
Number and Value of Deals Is Increasing
An Industry that Has Always Been Accepting of Change and Innovation
InsurTech Annual Financing,2011 – 2016
Value of Deals ($ Millions)
Source: CB Insights at https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/2016-insurance-tech-funding/
$140$350 $270
$870
$2,670
$1,690
91
4628
122
173
63
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 020406080100120140160180200220
Value of Deals Number of Deals
No. of Deals
Insurance tech deals reached a new record in 2016 but funding was higher in 2015
2 out of every 3 InsurTech deals in 2016 was at the early stage!
104
Top 25 P/C Insurers by Direct Written Premium, 2015
Sources: NAIC from CB Insights at https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/largest-pc-insurers-rank-startup-investments/
Are large P/C insurers more likely to invest in InsurTech start-ups?
105
Start-Up InsurTech Investments by Top 25 P/C Insurers, 2015 - 2017*
*As of June 23, 2017.Sources: NAIC from CB Insights at https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/largest-pc-insurers-rank-startup-investments/
USAA and AmFam lead in P/C InsurTech
investment
10 of the Top 25 P/C insurers have made InsureTech start-up investments since 2015.—but there is little correlation between size and number of
investments within this group
Thank you for your timeand your attention!
Twitter: twitter.com/bob_hartwigFor a copy of this presentation, email me at [email protected]
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