Financial Analysis - Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance, as...
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Transcript of Financial Analysis - Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance, as...
04.03.2013
Ticker: Assured Guaranty Ltd Benchmark:
Currency: New York: AGO, Currency: USD S&P 500 INDEX (SPX)
Sector: Financials Industry: Insurance Year:
Telephone 1-441-279-5700 Revenue (M) Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M)
Website www.assuredguaranty.com No of Employees Financial Guaranty Direct 918 Unallocated Sales 1
Address 30 Woodbourne Avenue Hamilton, HM 08 Bermuda Investments/Corporate 442
Share Price Performance in USD Mortgage Guaranty 2
Price 19.24 1M Return 8.4% Financial Guaranty Reinsurance
52 Week High 20.18 6M Return 40.9%
52 Week Low 10.96 52 Wk Return 14.0%
52 Wk Beta 1.83 YTD Return 35.9%
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg -
S&P A- Date 30.11.2011 Outlook STABLE
Moody's - Date 17.01.2013 Outlook STABLE
Fitch - Date - Outlook -
Valuation Ratios
12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E
P/E 9.6x 5.0x 4.0x 5.1x 7.3x 7.3x 7.1x
EV/EBIT - - - - - - -
EV/EBITDA - - - - - - -
P/S 3.0x 2.5x 1.3x 2.8x 3.1x 3.4x 3.7x
P/B 1.1x 0.9x 0.5x - 0.7x 0.6x 0.6x
Div Yield 0.8% 1.0% 1.4% - 2.1% 2.2% 2.2%
Profitability Ratios %
12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E
Gross Margin - - - - - - -
EBITDA Margin - - - - - - -
Operating Margin 23.9 49.4 62.3 - 42.7 39.7 -
Profit Margin 10.6 37.6 42.6 11.3 39.3 43.9 47.2
Return on Assets 0.9 2.7 4.1 - 2.1 - -
Return on Equity 3.6 13.6 18.3 - 8.4 7.6 -
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12
Current Ratio - - - - Current Capitalization in USD
Quick Ratio - - - - Common Shares Outstanding (M) 182.2
EBIT/Interest - - - - Market Capitalization (M) 3737.5
Tot Debt/Capital 0.2 0.2 0.2 - Cash and ST Investments (M) 133.0
Tot Debt/Equity 0.3 0.3 0.2 - Total Debt (M) 840.0
Eff Tax Rate % 27.7 10.1 25.0 - Preferred Equity (M) 0.0
LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0
Investments (M) 0.0
Enterprise Value (M) 4444.5
Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance, as well
as mortgage guaranty coverage. The Company's products include guaranties for
municipal finance, structured finance, and corporate bonds.
AGO UN
973
#N/A N/A
Company Analysis - Overview
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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Assured Guaranty Ltd
Target price in USD
Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date
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Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
04.03.2013
Assured Guaranty Ltd
Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution
Shares Outstanding (M) 182.2 United States 93.92%
Float 88.3% Britain 2.22%
Short Interest (M) 4.8 Unknown Country 1.34%
Short Interest as % of Float 3.01% Norway 0.64%
Days to Cover Shorts 1.42 France 0.58%
Institutional Ownership 106.88% Germany 0.54%
Retail Ownership -8.32% Switzerland 0.41%
Insider Ownership 1.45% Others 0.36%
Institutional Ownership Distribution
Investment Advisor 61.09%
Hedge Fund Manager 34.47%
Mutual Fund Manager 1.40%
Individual 1.34%
Pricing data is in USD Others 1.71%
Top 20 Owners:
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country
INVESCO PRIVATE CAPI 19'835'370 0 381'632'519 10.21% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES
WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN 16'667'531 -126'502 320'683'296 8.58% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
FMR LLC 12'260'094 -1'101'100 235'884'209 6.31% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES
T ROWE PRICE ASSOCIA 10'195'871 553'133 196'168'558 5.25% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
VANGUARD GROUP INC 9'160'067 1'919'427 176'239'689 4.72% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
DIAMOND HILL CAPITAL 9'133'976 176'969 175'737'698 4.70% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
FINE CAPITAL PARTNER 8'186'849 486'749 157'514'975 4.21% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
BLACKROCK 7'236'539 83'111 139'231'010 3.73% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES
PUTNAM INVESTMENT MA 5'953'818 -3'018'398 114'551'458 3.06% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
AMICI CAPITAL LLC 5'611'000 595'000 107'955'640 2.89% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
MOORE CAPITAL MANAGE 5'026'580 2'525'000 96'711'399 2.59% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
CAPITAL GROUP COMPAN 4'895'000 -1'167'720 94'179'800 2.52% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES
BRIDGER MANAGEMENT L 4'815'837 0 92'656'704 2.48% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
TIMESSQUARE CAPITAL 3'874'400 35'600 74'543'456 1.99% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
ELM RIDGE MANAGEMENT 2'858'498 -1'289'270 54'997'502 1.47% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
BLUECREST CAPITAL MA 2'743'451 515'097 52'783'997 1.41% 31.12.2012 13F BRITAIN
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV 2'690'600 21'404 51'767'144 1.39% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
STERLING CAPITAL MAN 2'534'875 -22'021 48'770'995 1.30% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
STATE STREET 2'446'035 132'436 47'061'713 1.26% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES
BRONSON POINT MGMT L 2'419'800 1'400'000 46'556'952 1.25% 31.12.2012 13F UNITED STATES
Top 5 Insiders:
Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source
FREDERICO DOMINIC J 1'213'659 -12'822 23'350'799 0.63% 09.02.2013 Form 4
MILLS ROBERT BRUCE 247'261 -2'404 4'757'302 0.13% 09.02.2013 Form 4
MICHENER JAMES M 233'890 4'500'044 0.12% 09.02.2013 Form 4
BORGES FRANCISCO L 169'966 3'270'146 0.09% 05.12.2012 Form 4
BAILENSON ROBERT A 125'612 -2'368 2'416'775 0.07% 09.02.2013 Form 4
Company Analysis - Ownership
Ownership Type
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Geographic Ownership
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Institutional Ownership
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TOP 20 ALL
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Assured Guaranty Ltd
Financial information is in USD (M)
Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E
Income Statement
Revenue 302 512 348 295 322 -302 553 917 1'313 1'819 973 1'203 1'084 1'015
- Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Income
- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 31 41 68 4 3 3 6 92 7 0
(Research & Dev Costs)
Operating Income 94 252 246 243 204 -439 136 219 649 1'134 513 431
- Interest Expense 11 6 11 14 14 24 23 63 100 99
- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)
- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 23 0 0
Pretax Income 83 246 233 230 190 -463 112 133 549 1'034 687 700 695
- Income Tax Expense 11 32 16 41 30 -160 43 37 56 259
Income Before XO Items 73 215 217 188 160 -303 69 96 494 776 110
- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
- Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0
Diluted EPS Before XO Items 0.97 2.86 2.44 2.53 2.15 (4.46) 0.77 0.75 2.61 4.18 0.57
Net Income Adjusted* 67 210 141 190 157 178 75 317 660 604 535 473 476 479
EPS Adjusted 0.90 2.80 1.88 2.53 2.12 2.57 0.84 2.45 3.49 3.26 2.81 2.65 2.64 2.70
Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.40 0.43 0.42
Payout Ratio % 11.0 16.3 2.5 4.8 6.6 23.2 23.0 6.7 4.3 0.15 0.16 0.16
Total Shares Outstanding 75 75 75 74 68 80 91 184 184 182
Diluted Shares Outstanding 75 75 75 74 74 68 89 129 189 186 191
EBITDA
*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.
Equivalent Estimates
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
Fiscal Year
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets
+ Cash & Near Cash Items 9 32 17 6 5 8 12 44 108 215
+ Short Term Investments 2'052 2'190 2'141 2'250 2'465 3'140 3'631 10'808 10'458 10'876
+ Accounts & Notes Receivable 364 221 183 68 77 72 157 1'853 2'222 1'516
+ Inventories
+ Other Current Assets
Total Long-Term Assets
+ Long Term Investments 2'052 2'190 2'141 2'250 2'465 3'140 3'631 10'808 10'741 11'099
Gross Fixed Assets
Accumulated Depreciation 157 179 186 193 217 259 289 242 240 232
+ Net Fixed Assets 0 0
+ Other Long Term Assets 137 236 167 179 172 284 467 3'856 6'531 5'030
Total Current Liabilities
+ Accounts Payable
+ Short Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Other Short Term Liabilities 139 127 138 76 72 52 57 370 2'830 1'944
Total Long Term Liabilities
+ Long Term Borrowings 75 75 197 197 347 347 347 1'066 1'053 1'038
+ Other Long Term Borrowings 150 61 84 96 101 685 795 3'157 4'678 3'749
Total Liabilities 1'463 1'420 1'166 1'035 1'285 2'096 2'629 13'283 16'108 13'373
+ Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 -0 0 0
+ Share Capital & APIC 962 972 895 883 712 1'025 1'285 2'587 2'587 2'572
+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity 295 466 633 779 939 642 641 934 1'146 2'147
Total Shareholders Equity 1'257 1'438 1'528 1'662 1'651 1'667 1'926 3'520 3'733 4'718
Total Liabilities & Equity 2'720 2'858 2'694 2'696 2'935 3'763 4'556 16'803 19'842 18'092
Book Value Per Share 16.76 19.17 20.30 22.46 24.41 20.85 21.18 19.12 20.32 25.89 28.30 29.64 33.91
Tangible Book Value Per Share 19.17 21.30 23.14 19.78 20.24 19.12 20.32 25.89
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E
Cash Flows
Net Income 73 215 183 188 160 -303 69 97 494 776 513 498
+ Depreciation & Amortization 0 0 0
+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments 205 -14 17 8 14 -185 65 -12 306 -130
+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital -244 -19 88 874 293 194 -670 30
Cash From Operating Activities 278 200 -45 177 262 386 427 279 129 676
+ Disposal of Fixed Assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Capital Expenditures 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Increase in Investments -1'482 -903 -813 -957 -883 -1'055 -1'272 -2'288 -2'462 -2'308
+ Decrease in Investments 1'250 747 796 802 655 390 622 1'340 2'671 2'090
+ Other Investing Activities -36 11 40 0 0 0 -450 444 779
Cash From Investing Activities -267 -145 22 -155 -228 -664 -650 -1'397 653 561
+ Dividends Paid -8 -35 -5 -9 -10 -11 -16 -22 -33 -33
+ Change in Short Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings 0 0 197 0 150 0 0 0 0 0
+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings 0 0 -200 0 -2 0 0 -15 -21 -22
+ Increase in Capital Stocks 2 0 0 1 305 249 1'190 0 0
+ Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 -6 -19 -171 -9 -4 -10 -23
+ Other Financing Activities 0 0 20 -5 -1 -3 -7 1 -654 -1'052
Cash From Financing Activities -6 -35 7 -33 -35 282 227 1'150 -718 -1'131
Net Changes in Cash 5 20 -15 -11 -1 3 4 32 64 106
Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 278 200 -45 177 386 427 279 129 676
Free Cash Flow To Firm 287 205 -36 188 441 325 219 750
Free Cash Flow To Equity 200 -47 386 427 264 108 653
Free Cash Flow per Share 3.70 2.67 -0.59 2.40 5.67 4.85 2.21 0.70 3.68
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E
Ratio Analysis
Valuation Ratios
Price Earnings 10.5x 10.0x 12.5x 10.3x 13.6x 9.6x 5.0x 4.0x 5.1x 7.3x 7.3x 7.1x
EV to EBIT
EV to EBITDA
Price to Sales 4.2x 6.4x 6.1x 1.8x 3.0x 2.5x 1.3x 2.8x 3.1x 3.4x 3.7x
Price to Book 1.0x 1.1x 1.1x 1.3x 0.5x 1.1x 0.9x 0.5x 0.7x 0.6x 0.6x
Dividend Yield 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 1.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.4% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2%
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin
EBITDA Margin - - -
Operating Margin 31.0% 49.2% 70.6% 82.6% 63.3% 24.5% 23.9% 49.4% 62.3% 42.7% 39.7%
Profit Margin 24.0% 41.9% 52.5% 64.0% 49.6% 12.5% 10.6% 37.6% 42.6% 11.3% 39.3% 43.9% 47.2%
Return on Assets 7.7% 6.6% 7.0% 5.7% -9.1% 1.7% 0.9% 2.7% 4.1% 2.1%
Return on Equity 15.9% 12.3% 11.8% 9.6% -18.3% 3.8% 3.6% 13.6% 18.3% 8.4% 7.6%
Leverage & Coverage Ratios
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)
Tot Debt/Capital 0.06 0.05 0.11 0.11 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.23 0.22 0.18
Tot Debt/Equity 0.06 0.05 0.13 0.12 0.21 0.21 0.18 0.30 0.28 0.22
Others
Asset Turnover 0.18 0.13 0.11 0.11 -0.09 0.13 0.09 0.07 0.10
Accounts Receivable Turnover
Accounts Payable Turnover
Inventory Turnover
Effective Tax Rate 12.7% 12.9% 21.7% 17.9% 15.9% 38.7% 27.7% 10.1% 25.0%
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |
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12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2008 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012
20.18 12.00 0.06 1.11 153'738.88 9.81 - 11.38 21.41 10.75
19.02.2013 14.09.2012 06.02.2013 18.10.2012 28.02.2013 04.03.2013 - 19.02.2013 04.03.2013 15.02.2013
11.17 6.78 0.01 0.12 117'422.00 2.00 - 5.73 11.06 5.37
04.06.2012 13.11.2012 15.03.2012 16.08.2012 05.03.2012 18.05.2012 - 06.03.2012 14.03.2012 05.06.2012
93'857 1'434'290 207'857 130 354 7'458'422 0 734'789 405'903 499'771
19.23 10.80 0.04 0.45 151'149.00 9.50 - 11.18 21.06 10.15
-4.7% -10.0% -38.7% -59.5% -1.7% -3.2% - -1.8% -1.6% -5.6%
72.2% 59.3% 213.4% 275.0% 28.7% 375.0% - 95.1% 90.4% 89.0%
182.2 195.7 302.4 35.1 1.6 133.6 - 105.2 81.7 83.8
3'735.6 2'081.7 11.5 29.3 248'302.8 1'593.5 - 2'828.8 1'720.5 849.0
1'038.3 4'204.0 15'058.7 - 62'736.0 772.4 - 2'895.0 3'221.0 4'691.5
- - - 0.0 - - - 61.6 - 545.0
- 21.0 663.4 20.0 3'941.0 - - - - 87.9
214.5 990.0 20.6 1'574.1 186'759.0 31.6 - 157.4 81.0 256.3
4'442.6 5'316.7 16'258.3 - 128'220.8 2'334.4 - 4'762.3 4'860.5 5'372.1
LFY 973.0 2'386.0 685.7 669.3 162'463.0 825.4 - 310.5 278.0 400.5
LTM 973.1 2'386.0 863.4 (1'441.5) 162'463.0 817.7 (1'303.0) 318.0 291.4 371.4
CY+1 1'202.8 358.0 - - 172'941.0 942.0 - 335.7 229.5 253.1
CY+2 1'084.3 - - - 178'263.0 1'072.5 - 393.0 210.0 403.0
LFY 3.4x 2.0x 23.7x - 0.6x 1.9x - - 16.3x 13.0x
LTM 4.1x 2.0x 26.6x - 0.6x 1.9x - - 15.5x 14.0x
CY+1 - - - - - -2.9x - 8.7x - -
CY+2 - - - - - -2.4x - 7.4x - -
LFY - - - - 29'524.0 - - 262.1 171.2 167.8
LTM - - - - 29'524.0 - - 273.8 214.1 170.9
CY+1 - - - - - - - 298.0 - 227.0
CY+2 - - - - - - - 327.0 - 283.0
LFY - - - - 3.4x - - - 26.4x 31.0x
LTM - - - - 3.4x - - - 24.4x 30.5x
CY+1 - - - - - - - 9.8x - -
CY+2 - - - - - - - 8.9x - -
LFY 2.81 1.19 -0.31 -26.49 7'629.00 -3.24 - 1.14 1.03 -2.73
LTM 2.79 1.36 -0.29 -65.35 7'628.00 -3.84 31'000.00 2.53 1.29 -2.72
CY+1 2.65 0.67 - - 8'652.04 (0.12) - 1.22 1.71 (1.35)
CY+2 2.64 (0.09) - - 9'109.42 1.23 - 1.41 2.05 (0.05)
LFY 6.9x 7.9x - - 19.8x - - 4.4x 16.3x -
LTM 6.9x 7.9x - - 19.8x - - 4.4x 16.3x -
CY+1 7.3x 16.2x - - 17.5x - - 9.1x 12.3x -
CY+2 7.3x - - - 16.6x 7.7x - 7.9x 10.3x -
1 Year (46.5%) - 131.8% - 13.1% (57.6%) - 6.2% 28.0% (7.5%)
5 Year - - - - 10.6% - - (13.6%) (13.1%) (24.5%)
1 Year - - - - 34.2% - - - - (24.1%)
5 Year - - - - 4.3% - - (12.5%) (27.2%) (32.7%)
LTM - - - - 18.2% - - 85.2% 79.0% 46.0%
CY+1 - - - - - - - 88.8% - 89.7%
CY+2 - - - - - - - 83.2% - 70.2%
Total Debt / Equity % 22.0% 132.5% - 0.0% 33.4% 104.9% - 2218.3% 282.5% 378.7% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
Total Debt / Capital % 18.0% 56.8% 126.4% - 24.7% 51.2% - 93.8% 73.9% 78.0% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
Total Debt / EBITDA - - - - 2.125x - - - 19.108x 27.459x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
Net Debt / EBITDA - - - - -4.201x - - - 18.924x 25.958x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
EBITDA / Int. Expense - - - - 13.783x - - 1.899x - 0.473x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
S&P LT Credit Rating A- B- NR - AA+ CCC+ - - - B+ FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
S&P LT Credit Rating Date 30.11.2011 22.12.2010 30.11.2010 - 04.02.2010 15.10.2012 - - - 18.03.2011 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
Moody's LT Credit Rating - Caa1 WR - Aa2 Caa1 - - - B3 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - 19.11.2012 07.04.2011 - 04.02.2010 27.02.2013 - - - 04.10.2012 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
52-Week High Date
52-Week Low
Latest Fiscal Year:
52-Week High
Total Debt
Market Capitalization
Daily Volume
52-Week Low % Change
Current Price (3/dd/yy)
52-Week High % Change
Cash and Equivalents
EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
Enterprise Value
Valuation
Preferred Stock
52-Week Low Date
Minority Interest
Total Common Shares (M)
P/E
Revenue Growth
Total Revenue
EV/Total Revenue
EPS
EBITDA Growth
EBITDA Margin
Credit Ratings
Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Company Analysis - Peers Comparision
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