T306b Final Project Marie A Madi 080669 Section: 115 ... · T306b Final Project Marie A Madi 080669...

Section: 115 Marie A Madi 080669 T306b Final Project

FBS-PT3 F O R M

Faculty of Business Studies TMA Cover Sheet

Lebanon Branch

□ Second First Semester 2010 - 2011 Academic Year

2 □ 1 TMA No. T306B Course No.

I. Student Information (to be completed by the student)

Marie A Madi Student Name

115 Section No. 080669 Student No.

[email protected] E-Mail

I hereby certify that the work presented in this TMA is my own and is not copied from any source.

24 / 12 / 2010 Date of Submission Marie Madi Signature

Q3 Q2 Q1 Questions Total

20 10 70 Weight Allocated Marks

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Total E-Library Word Count Referencing Presentation Criteria

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ARAB OPEN UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF BUSINESS STUDIES

Lebanon Branch

T306. Managing Complexity: a systems approach

Immigration of youth

Final Project Presented by Student Name: Marie Madi

Supervisor: Dr. Hassan Al Ali

Fall 2010


Table of contents: Overview 4 Definition of : 2.1 Tutor Report 4 2.2 Client Report 5 2.3 LOG project 5 3. Tutor Report 3.1 Aim of project 6 3.2 The report 8 3.2.1 Ethicality statement 10 3.2.2 LOG Frame 11 3.2.3 Stages of SSM 12 4. Client Report 17 5. LOG Project 20 6. Overall Summary of Project 22 7. References 23


Immigration of Youth

Introduction: Migration is the translocation of people living in one place to another one internally or externally in the seek for a better living conditions, where all life requirements are available including education, jobs, safety systems and other opportunities. the incentives that lead people to take this step is because they believe that there are more opportunities in various fields and better offers, plus other reasons including security, stability, and safety especially in the last three years where every summer Lebanon faces attacks from enemy countries, or from terrorist also this year faces street fights between different parties due to political reasons. Migration of youth is an aspect that became widely spread in the last decade, leaving many consequences on our country "Lebanon" by affecting its economy, society, and structure. Besides as I can notice in my problem situation, it's obvious that Lebanese youth also travel not only for jobs, but some travel to continue their studies, others for tourism, business or either for family reunifications. Thus the causes of this issue aren't limited only by these reasons, because everyone sees it from his own perspective. But whatever are the reasons for migration, there exist a big problem in the economy mainly due to the loss of the dynamic power and the creativity of the new generations that have better understanding and knowledge of the future techniques and systems. All those raise an alert for the recent coming years over Lebanese markets, structure, and society that will be oriented to be made of old age people. Lebanese immigration is a phenomenon that goes way back in history; taking its roots from the Phoenician times and growing through the 21st century. Its causes are familial, social, political and economical. The emigration of the Lebanese can be traced back to the late nineteenth century, after the events of 1860 took place. Egypt


was among the first destinations of the emigrants, followed by France, the United States, Australia and Brazil.

The two world wars, and most importantly, the 1975 civil war, have contributed to a rise in the number of emigrants. Some sources have (press estimates) estimated the number of emigrants since 1975 up until 1990 to be about 900,000 persons. Many of those travelers have returned but the undergone research did not determine their number.

Going further in my project I'll choose a selection of thoughts and information from different recourses to enrich my subject with the required data, such recourses like internet (search engines), Libraries, Municipality records, Magazines and books. My project will be divided in to three parts: tutor report, client report, and project log. In my Tutor report I'll explain my reasons for choosing this topic which I feel very important issue because it means every single of us including its aspects, results and possible ways to find a solution. Thus handling this method requires methods and systems though in the courses t205 and t306 including illustrations by diagrams, tables, and statistics, plus the usage of HSM, BECM, and mainly SSM that is used as a guiding process for analyzing stakeholders perception of the problem (mode 2). In my Client report I will introduce to the client a definition of the problem situation the causes that lead to such a phenomena, and the possible ways to prevent the youth to deny migrating by empowering governmental and entrepreneurial role in providing better jobs. In my Project log I will write a brief summary weekly and daily to the progress of my work through the stages of the project, in addition to my experience and how it changed as I moved through the stages of my project. My Objective: I‘ve chosen to handle this topic in my project because it’s obviously spreading these days in the classes of youth, especially in the last three years due to the political and economical reasons. Those factors always keep pushing the youth that face unemployment after their graduation to choose this way to in order to provide better future.


My tutor report: My objective in this report is to discuss the complexity (migration), from various perspectives, trying to study all its causes, aspects and results, over the Lebanese people, and how it affects the economy due to the lack of youth, that is considered the heart of every dynamic country. Also the other reason why I chosen this complexity is because it touches every one of us, where everyone in Lebanon is meant by this issue, whether an individual, a group an agency or even the government , are all considered as stakeholders, who should hold responsibility in order to find a solution for this problem. This I choose to deal with this complexity through the systemic learning cycle BECM, passing through the four balls and trying to handle the case such as a system practitioner. In the first ball (B), being systematically aware from the various consequences of such an issue (migration), where it leads to various changes causing severe results on the economy & the society of Lebanon as a whole where such consequences are: -Distribution of society levels. -Loss of many young people mainly youth that are the dynamic engine of the country. -Increase in the number of old age people accomplishing the work. -Reflecting negatively on the country's economy (GDP), by which all the production in our country will decrease at all levels (industrial, agricultural, tourism…) Simultaneously we will lose the productive and creative classes in our society which are the brain of our country. Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Since, in any situations, there will be many different perspectives, depending on values, beliefs and circumstances. There are connections between these values, beliefs and circumstances. Different people adopt different values and beliefs and devote their expertise in a different direction. Also there are systemic connections between our behaviors and the implications of that behavior when it is aggregated. In same manner, values, beliefs and circumstances all determine our perspectives that in turn affect our behavior and the way that we conceptualize the world-our world views. Values: immigration of youth is considered one of the dangerous problems that Lebanon is facing which if solved by providing better job, Security and stability to citizens, psychological climate, ensuring better social services, perfect educational system with lower prices to all people will lead to prosperous in the economy from all sides.

Belief: Immigration of youth threatens the economy & stability of the country. It causes negative aspects since immigration lead to the loss

Circumstances: Immigration due Unemployment, law salaries, insecure economy, inflation, poverty and many other important reasons , insecurity in the country leading the government to collapse, presence of armed groups and current political systems & Area prone to fights & wars that threatens human security. All those reasons lead the people to leave the country searching for better opportunities. However I'll provide in the first stage "Being" a spray diagram, in order to light over the problem & its direct causes in order to try in the later stages of the Learning cycle to find a solution that may lead to solve it.


To develop further techniques that support the first ball, I choose to us we the SWOT analysis that is mainly applied to study strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Starting with the strength: by pointing out the dangerous aspects and shed light over migration phenomena in Lebanon in all its sectors (economical, political, demographical ….), by which every one holds responsibility for this, and tries to help as a guide to find solutions such like (government, entities, capitalists..). Weaknesses: external and internal factors affecting the decision of youth and pushing them further to take such steps, thus convinced in traveling searching for the right place any were in the world, such causes are political while economical reasons are the lack of capital required to continue on living and finding luxurious standards such like in other countries over the world. Opportunities: that are found in the Arab and western world holds the youth to migrate seeking for a better future, and opportunities are better jobs, higher salaries, and many other forms of luxury ( home, car…). Threats: are mainly due to the instability in security systems in the country that leads to wars in 2006 (over the South), 2007 (over the North), 2008 (all over the streets of Lebanon).


Moving forward to the next two balls Engaging (E) in the complexity and being involved by applying the hard system method HSM, see the real causes that lead to migration of youth, where I need to understand what made the client aware of the problem? My commitment in the problem and why does the client wants me to do this? Otherwise, regarding my Ethicality Statement that I can consider as an introduction to limit this issue could be accomplished through: -All Views and voices of youth are of great value and taken into consideration, in order to make the government provide job opportunities and better pay. - Information can be shared only if it was already published or if the people who give the information allow us to do so. -All the people involved in giving information are helping in any step will not face any obligations where they can choose not to participate or they can withdraw in any moment, besides they must know what they have to do, in case they choose to participate. -The people involved in this situation, and those who provide information have the right to know what is happening, what are the results of the research, and know the solution if they were presented, to try to improve their situation. - The researcher will consider the causes and aspects that all others bring to the research taking into consideration in this complexity the necessity to: -Provide good social security systems. -Dual citizenship between all parties (politically). -Entrepreneurial environment for small businesses. -Peace, stability and tolerance of minorities. Proceeding to the third ball (C) contextualizing: the main objective is to see what went wrong and learn how to avoid it in the future, thus the purpose of applying the HSM to the project is to show how systems tools can be used to make complex situations more understandable. Thus the HSM consists of eight stages which I'm going to pass through them all in applying approaches to deal with the situation. In addition to enrich this report I’m going to draw the multiple causes diagram and the sign graph. Multiple cause diagrams: are useful in this phase to describe the different causes or reasons of the mess and show the relationships between different elements in the Lebanese immigration mess. By convention multiple cause diagrams have the elements of the mess laid out, without any other sort of enclosure, in whatever way assists in clarifying the process of migration to others countries. So the multiple cause diagrams will show the relationships between the causes and the effect (immigration of Lebanese) this process will clarify and simplify the complexity of the mess to be well understood so The MCD that I had drawn shows the elements of the mess that are joined by arrows indicating where there is cause and effect in both directions, moreover the MCD shows the main causes that led to the immigration in Lebanon and the main causes are:

Theories of immigration traditionally distinguish between push factors <need to leave in order to survive>and pull factors<attracted to new ways of life in this case immigrants are motivated to travel.

Sign graph: I am going to implement one way that I had already suggested previously in a sign graph to gain further understanding if this way is connected in reducing the mess indicating whether this way has positive or negative effect on


reducing the number of Lebanese immigrants I used the sign graph because I had already knew the reasons and the impact of the mess if I didn’t know those factors wasn’t able to predict the effect of the way that was suggested as a way out of the mess.

APPLYING HARD SYSTEM METHOD: Stage 1: Identifying and describing the opportunity or problem to be solved. In my project I choose to discuss Migration aspects where the real problem is mainly the loss of the youth, who are the motive body that moves the country forward and enriches its economy. Stage 2: Identification of objectives and constraints. I'll try in this project to shed light over this complexity and how it affects Lebanon from both perspectives negatively and positively providing better understanding to the causes that make several people decide to leave to a place where there are more facilities such like: -Lack of restriction on the movements of citizens. -Presence of opportunities for self-development & self-improvement. -Tolerance of dual citizenship. -Active liberal Economic, Financial, and Banking systems that endorse the free flow of capital and hand currency. On the other hand the constraints are mainly at the Economical, Political and Environmental levels which will be discussed on later stages. Stage 3: Generation of routes to objectives. After defining my problem and the constraints it holds, here comes the routes that may lead to specify the causes of the problem (Migration of youth), and possible ways to find a solution for it. The routes to objectives are mainly: -Providing better job opportunities and better pay. -Good social security systems. -Dual citizenship between all parties (politically). -Entrepreneurial environment for small businesses. -Peace and stability and tolerance of minorities. While Constraints are found to be at three levels political, economical and Environmental levels, which I will display in the table below Push and Pull factors:


Push and pull factors of migration: Human. PUSH FACTORS. PULL FACTORS.

POLITICAL FACTORS.

-Insecurity in the country leading the government to collapse & the presence of armed groups. -Dislike of current political system.

-Secure regions where stability & authority are found all over the country such like in near countries.

ECONOMIC FACTORS.

-Unemployment. -Poverty. -Low Salaries. -Dept Servicing. -Economic Disparity.

-Job opportunities. -High Salaries. -Ranking higher positions. -Easier Tasks.

Environmental Factors.

-Area prone to fights & wars. -Threats of human security. -Lebanon's Insecurity (2006 war in south, 2007 war in north, 2008 war all over the country).

-Lure of an attractive climate. -Land form region.

Then choosing the most suitable route may be hard to obtain because all the previous factors seems to be logical and have direct effect on the causes of migration of the Lebanese youth. Stage 4: Formulating measures of performance. The statistics show that the Migrants perceptions of Current Economic Insecurity in Lebanon gave the following results: Unemployment: 35.2%, Dept services 16.9%, Economic disparity between human communities 11.3%, lack of access to developmental services 11.3%, low salaries 11.3%, lack of job security 7%, lack of access to social services2.8%, poverty in old age 1.5%, and others 2.8% gave no answer. While the statistics of Migrants perceptions of Current Political Insecurity in Lebanon gave the following results: Government collapse 21.1%, Armed groups in Lebanon 16.9 %, Religious/ Sectarian Turmoil 12.7 %, Sectarian/Factional armed conflicts:11.3%, External armed conflict 8.5%, Boarder war 7%, Violent internal uprising 5.6%, one group would intimidate the other 2.8%, Control of one group over the others 4.2%, Restriction of freedoms 5.65,Being oppressed 4.3%.


After formulating Measures of performance and displaying the statistics of the direct factors that caused the migration of youth, those data are displayed by a table, in a way to show both Models Economical and Political factor that have effects over the migration of youth. Stage 5: Modeling.

Political Factors. Economical Factors.

Causes that migrants fear of are:

Percentage of Effectiveness (%).

Causes that migrants fear of are:

Percentage of Effectiveness (%).

-Government collapse.

21.1%. -Unemployment.

35.2 %.

-Armed groups in Lebanon.

16.9%. -Dept Service.

16.9 %.

Religious/Sectarian turmoil.

12.7%. -Economic Disparity between human communities.

11.3%.

Sectarian/Factional armed conflict.

11.3%. -Lack of access developmental services.

11.3%.

-External armed conflict.

8.5%. -Low Salaries 11.3%.

-Border War. 7%. -Lack of Job security.

7%.

-Violent internal Uprising.

5.6%. -Lack of access to social services.

2.8%.

-One group would intimidate the others.

2.8%. -Poverty in old age.

1.5%.

-Control of one group over the others.

4.2%. -Others. 2.8%.

-Restriction of freedoms.

5.6%.

-Being oppressed. 4.3%. Stage 6: Evaluation. The most obvious constraint that caused the young Lebanese people choose to leave are (unemployment) with a ratio of 35.2% with respect to Economy, while with respect to politics the highest ratio is (Government collapse) with a ratio 21.1%. Those are the major factors evaluating the routes measured and studied in the statistics that affect the people's choice to migrate; moreover they are crystal clear and known by everyone.


Stage 7: Choice of the best route to objectives. Mainly it’s both I choose (Unemployment and government collapse) as constraints leading to such an issue, because if no jobs are available and no presence of a government stable and powerful to keep the economy growing well, then all the residents will choose to migrate and find a more organized country with a powerful economy and presence of opportunities. Thus the suitable route to objective is by the government and its role in making strategies to provide jobs and better salaries for graduate students so that it benefits from their abilities, also by spreading stability in economy and security all over the country. Stage 8: Implementation, go ahead. This last stage holds the passport for the routes to choose their right way, and migrate to the suitable place in the minds of Lebanese people and try to convince them not fly away from their home country because sooner or later everything will be fine as it was before, where economical and political conflicts will be resolved. Thus there is no clear route so implementation stage isn't suitable in providing solution to the problem. The last ball (M) Managing is considered as a result of all stages and a conclusion to what I previously did, thus the recommendations that I mentioned as an objective and the constraints that prevent them from happening, can be managed by applying the models and trying to actuate more the role of the government in providing more facilities to the young youth in order to find better jobs, thus providing stability and safety to all the Lebanese citizens by increasing awareness in them, and make every one hold responsibility of the consultants that are happening in the country mainly (firms, manufactures, Since the HSM Was found to fail in some cases, Peter Checkland began to develop a method that encompassed the soft perspective. Soft systems thinking don't assume that the problems are out there in the world in a real sense. Working from a soft perspective, there are no objectively given problems, and that different people have different perspectives where some agree on the nature of the given problem while and disagree on what constitutes a solution, that’s why problems are unbound, unclear, and uncertain. Influence diagrams: is another way of developing our understanding about the immigration mess by indicating where one element in the situation has some influence over another also it carries much more impact of the immigration mess on the home country Lebanon and the host countries and it helps in clarifying thoughts in the understanding stage. The influence of the mess is showed in the diagram through arrows related by the elements also the arrows are formed from 2 types of lines thick black lines showing the negative impact of the immigration mess and the thin line showing the positive impact of the mess. As a consequence to the HSM I’ll use the Soft System Method (SSM) that is used as a guiding process for an analysis of stakeholder's perception of the problem, and its purpose is to design and manage a learning system appropriate to the need of clients and the problem situation.


APPLYING SOFT SYSTEM METHOD: After all the stages we have been through and due to my believes that finding the solution to the problem (migration of youth) is the main point that we seek to obtain, starting from my belief in how bad it's to leave our country to a place suiting our objectives better then Lebanon, thus leading to a gap in the country due to the loss of talented people. Thus managing this complexity is obtained through applying the SSM. Starting with the primary stages and after describing the Problem Situation and displaying all the components of the problem in a (rich picture or questionnaire) I'll display it as follow in the second step of the method.

Migration Questionnaire.

1- Political and Economical causes for Migration: -To secure their future: 35.6 %. -The country's instability: 24.7%. -Political situation: 13.7%. -To secure their family's future: 6.8%. -The Economic situation: 6.8%. -The societal situation: 6.8 %. -Training and business processes: 5.6%.

2-Students (youth) who Intend to Immigrate: -Aged 15-20 years: 48.6 % yes No: 50 %. Others: 1.4 %. -Aged 21-30 years: 62.5% yes No: 37.2%. Others: 0.3%. -Aged 31-40 years: 56.5% yes No: 43.5%. -Aged 41-50 years: 83.3% yes No: 16.7%. 3- Socio-demographic backgrounds of the Lebanese migrants: -Orthodox: 21.1 % -Maronites: 22%. -Druze: 14.7%. -Sunnis: 21.2%. -Shiites: 21%. 4-Lebanese People who intended to Immigrate:


-Males (who wish to leave): 66.5%. -Females (who wish to leave):55.4% -Males (who don't): 33.5%. -Females (who don’t):45.6%. 5- Ages of Migrants: "21-30"years: 40%. "31-40" years: 40%. "41-50" years: 18%. "51-above" years: 2%. 6- Bachelor Degrees of Migrants: -BA or BS degrees: 35.6%. -MS, MA or MBA: 38%. -Ph. Dr or MD: 20%. -Others: 6.4%. 7- Kinds of Visas: -Family Visa: 25.4%. Male: 50%. -Single: Female: 24.6%. . While moving forward to the next stage the third one, I'll handle it by using the process Logic Driven Inquiry in applying the SSM (mode 2) as follow and by the aid of the six stages of Vignette 6:

- Determine key stakeholders and their responsibilities. - Determine stakeholders’ perceptions of problems and opportunities. - Derive key transformations from opportunities. - Develop models of human activity systems. - Use models to support planning discussions between stakeholders. - Monitoring ongoing planning and implementation.

In my project I'm trying to analyze the topic according to the data I gathered from my searches and surveys I made thus trying to be objective in displaying the image in my report to let my tutor understand where does the real lies. Thus I consider myself a Stakeholder because I'm from the students who think of leaving the country after finishing my studies, searching for better opportunities. The stakeholders engaged in the problem are many; I'll try to mention some of those who have direct relation with the issue, thus starting with the government that is unable to


provide necessary environment for its residents such like peace, stability, jobs, security systems… Other stakeholders are the Airport that benefits from travelers, in addition to all the shops, travel agencies, car rentals inside the port. Also the host country's Airports and the firms that benefit from the experience of Lebanese youth, and many other beneficiaries. After determining the key stakeholders and their responsibilities I'll use the domain of sustainable development for systems practice, and deal with the term "Decide with the Stakeholder" to explain to them what are the strengths and weaknesses of a particular method in a given context so that they could choose for themselves by determining the perception of problems and opportunities, where the problem identified include: Economical, Political, and Environmental problems, mainly regarding law salaries, unemployment, dept services, security systems,& government collapse… While the opportunities identified include: good jobs with higher pay, safety and security, organized rules and regulations and brighter future. Stage 3: Relevant system and Root definition: Relevant system: - Providing better job. -Security and stability to citizens. - Psychological climate. - Ensuring better social services. - Perfect educational system with lower prices to all people. -Government welfare system (Education, Health, Providing services after age of retirement…..). Root definition: Is a system to describe Migration of youth as a phenomena that is over growing in Lebanon, To increase awareness of the Lebanese for such a problem, By triggering the role of the Government & Enterprises, In order to ensure the over growing demands of the Lebanese graduates for serving their objectives and hopes in a better future with good jobs and higher salaries to make them deny migration. To check if my Root definition is complete, I'll apply the CATWOE checklist to check whether my approach is right. -Customers (C): are the Lebanese people and mainly all those who feel threatened and unpleasant of their jobs and salaries, and want to travel and migrate to a better place searching for improved chances. -Actors (A): the government who is short of providing necessary jobs and salaries to the youth, in addition to stability in its economy and security in order not to let them migrate. *Travel agencies, Airports (in Lebanon and foreign country), and many others who share in pushing the young people more to migrate. Transformation process:


World Views (W): Changing in life styles (more wealth), different cultures, better future due to the raise of the income, facilitating the way for other people to choose

migration as a solution for their problems. Owners (O): are mainly capitalists who invest their money in projects, and recruiting Lebanese graduates with better pay. -Governmental regulations by making laws that put constraints over the firms to employ Lebanese people, and to increase the minimum level of wages. Environmental constraints (E): making the government provide the suitable atmosphere for the Lebanese youth in order to encourage them to stay and not to leave the country searching for better choices. Stage 4: Conceptual Model.

Stage 5: Comparison of control model with rich picture: The comparison between the questionnaire I made (depending on the residents view and perspectives), with the conceptual model that draws thick line about the government role in providing jobs for the graduate youth which is proved in the questionnaire to have high degree in studies including PhD (20%), & MBA (38%), in


order not to leave the country searching for opportunities that fulfill their demands, in addition to security systems that is relevant to the causes that lead to such a complexity in Lebanon mainly due to the economical and political factors (13.7%). In the end the main role of the government to ensure to the Lebanese people a dignified living in a country that respects the (multi religions) factor, thus this could be compared to the Socio-demographic back grounds of the migrants that contain all Lebanese people of all religions making no difference between them, where every one of them emigrated for the same reasons seeking for a better place. Stage 6: Debate with the stakeholders involved in the situation: After debating with the stakeholders mainly the governmental entrepreneurs, travel agencies, Enterprises executives, and after displaying the main points that I chose for the relevant system, there were many different opinions and perspectives by which some of the stakeholders liked most of the ideas, others had some comments and asked for changes because they felt guilty for what is happening to the Lebanese youth. One of the ideas to change regards the travel agencies where they consider traveling of people as a source for their living, by which they don't consider themselves as benefiting from Lebanese people, but on the other hand they consider themselves as facilitators aiming to provide services to the residents to fulfill their desires and purposes. However, the executives blamed the situation in the country and governmental restrictions that forces them to minimize the number of their employees to reduce the costs of manufacturing. At last comes the government role that considers the ideas displayed as relevant systems are true because sometimes things become out of control especially in the last three years due to the problems and wars, but everything this year will hopefully be fine and the economy will overcome all its disabilities and jobs will be offered. In the end there was agreement in the ideas displayed regarding all the causes discussed in the conference, and everyone believes that from now on there is no reason for the Lebanese residents to migrate, but to convince them to deny this act and an aid in the raise of their country's economy this year and in the future. Stage 7: Implementation of agreed changes. After the debate with the stakeholders that were convinced in the end to implement some changes in their own perspectives regarded to the offered ideas of to the relevant system, thus changing in their attitude is all that was required for them to implement, and then to be convinced that this is the right way to make a change towards this complexity that is over growing in Lebanon, hoping to give good results for Lebanon and its residents mainly youth. Word count: 4163 words


Client Report. Dear client: I'll try to inform you with the big problem that Lebanon as a whole is facing, an issue that started in the last decade and is still over growing where it reached its top levels. I'll explain my readings regarding the problem and my directions towards a better future where all Lebanese feel satisfied of what they've got in their home country in addition to the clear diagram (Influence diagram). Description of the problem (Migration of youth): As I obtained from the results of my research and from questionnaire I made about migration, it’s obvious that this phenomena is increasing in a terrible way, if not managed soon, will lead to a gap in the Lebanese society, thus migration can be defined as the translocation of people from place to place to place, searching for better living standards, where better jobs and pay is found as a result for the Economical, Political and Environmental causes that pushed the Lebanese people to migrate from their early beginnings searching for a better future. Informing about its causes and beginnings: As you can see that the youth in Lebanon are facing big problems after graduating and this is due to the lack of jobs or even to the low salaries paid instead, also due to competition and to the increased number of educated people with various skills, where the priority goes to those who have better experience. Nonetheless you can distinguish that those causes in addition to Economical and Political causes are the main factors that push the Lebanese people to move towards leaving to near Arab and western countries. Analysis of Migration Aspects: There is no exact number of the Lebanese people who travel outside the country either for permanent or non-permanent gap of time, but what is exact that is a lot of youth are from those who migrate for several purposes, I'll mention the most effective notions over the country whether they are positive or negative. Starting from the economical side of view, I noticed that the reasons for the youth to migrate are: -Unemployment, law salaries, insecure economy, inflation, poverty and many other important reasons. While the political factors are: -Insecurity in the country leading the government to collapse. -Presence of armed groups and current political systems. Environmentally there are also many causes for migration such like: -Area prone to fights & wars that threatens human security. Those reasons are from the negative side that has lead to migration, but in return migration presents to the country some positive aspects mainly from the economical side due to the money that the migrants send to their families and to their home country as welfare thus enriching the country with the wealth provided from rich countries. My Recommendations regarding this aspect: As I can conclude from my research study that I did, that the Government and Enterprises role is the most important factors that what causes this dangerous issue to happen are:


-Presence of opportunities for self-development & self-improvement. -Active liberal Economic, Financial, and Banking systems that endorse the free flow of capital and hand currency. -Control of capitalists over the market, where the monopoly of their enterprises effects negatively on the residents not allowing the local and middle classes to enter thus prices will raise making inflation and reducing the number of employees as a consequence for that.

This control of the Lebanese immigration is represented in diagrammatic form however the process has some standard components that include:

-The inputs: -Lebanese graduated students, skilled workforce, citizens, scientist, artists, and Lebanese families.

-The process that works on the inputs is to have the intended outputs which is a better economic, a prosperity for Lebanon, high standards of living, pioneers in the medical and technologist fields, investments in constructive projects, high wages, and employment.

-The outputs: -immigration of Lebanese, no social life, low wages, unemployment, and economic crisis, absence of family coherence and Lebanese culture and tradition, decreasing of poverty.

There is a control function that manages the process. This includes:

The process of having better standards of living in Lebanon is represented as a box that is linked to the sensor (migration, unemployment statistics) that positioned on the output arrow in a blob form, the sensor check the availability of better standards of living in Lebanon, however the sensor transmit the results through feedback path that brings the information about how much the prosperity of Lebanon had attended at this moment the information is transmitted to the comparator (Lebanese people) that is represented as an open circle with cross in it that compare the results of the better standards of living in Lebanon process that was< immigration of Lebanese> with the desired one<better standards of living in Lebanon>,now the government have a knowledge about the situation represented by a cloud that contains(bad situation immigration of Lebanese)this cloud is linked to the actuator (government plan)that adjust the situation isn’t going in the correct direction the actuator is a small box.

The inputs in the control model wasn’t transformed to the desired outcomes led to migration of Lebanese citizen and bad social and economical situation to correct the situation the government should put a rational plan build on strong strategies in which it cooperate with the host countries. the plan of the government should be based on having a safe environment by eliminating political conflicts, and apply the law on all Lebanese in all governmental firms that will lead to certain recognitions of the hard worker in which the government will have loyal well skilled employees in the right positions furthermore the plan must include an economical plan to get back the wasted people money from the not qualified politicians and employees On enforcing immigration laws and the economic plan should includes the working field needs to cooperate with the educational institutions to advice the students to select the needed fields but I must mention that Lebanon must provide all kinds of working fields to have wide choices for students , after finishing with those main ameliorations of major sectors in Lebanon the government must ask the help of host countries to enforce immigration law in which the immigrants that’s want to stay for long terms


must pay penalties and higher taxes also those laws must be effective such as impose On guest-worker programs by Setting up a system that prohibits guest workers in the host countries .

Log project: A-Through my previous reports it took me a month to propose, search and gather all the required information and needed data in order to obtain my last version of the project, which I'm going to pass through them all weekly and daily calendars. Weekly planning and daily briefing:

In the beginning of my project, I met my tutor and told him about my topic which I consider complex to be solved, and to me seems very alerting, we then discussed its causes and aspects and she gave me some hints about the main points that I should consider in my search, so that it becomes more rich and straight into the point that I'm willing to report in my project. After that I started to search the internet and other resources for data.

Week 1:

Sun April. 4

Sat. April. 10.

After gathering necessary information I started my introduction discussing the main points that I'll mention in my report with my tutor, including the methodologies and approaches that I'll use such like (BECM, HSM, SSM, and SWOT analysis).

:2Week

Sun. April. 11-

Sat. April. 17.

I proceeded in handling my tutor report that I started in week 2 putting the main points in their right positions, I gradually increased my level of applying approaches, stressing more in order to obtain the causes of migration of youth in Lebanon, and engaging with the stages of Systemic learning cycle mainly in the two balls of the juggler E & C, and after making the SWOT analysis and applying the stages of HSM, there was no exact solution found to the complexity, thus I was forced to move to the next level by applying the SSM.

Week 3:

Sun. April. 18

Sat. April. 24.

After ending my Tutor report, here comes the Client report, this one is headed directly towards the client, and aims to describe the client how complex the situation is? What are its effects over Lebanon and the Lebanese youth? Its causes and aspects? And my recommendations towards this problem, and the possible ways to solve it?

Week 4:

Sun. April. 25

Sat. May. 1.


I ended my project log by mentioning my Weekly planning and Daily briefing mentioning the most important stages that I passed through my project, checked my TMA again to see if there is anything I can do to improve it and discussing it for the last time with my tutor. In the end I submitted it on time.

Week 5:

Sun. May-2

Tues. May. 4.

Daily Briefing: Through the entire project I kept all my conscious and concentration in order not to forget any hint that could help me to explain my views all through the weeks of my work: First week: -Sunday 4 April; choosing my topic, & having skim reading about its content. -Monday 5 April; meeting my tutor and discussing with her migration aspects and its effects over our community. -Tuesday-Wednesday (6-7.); searching the internet for relevant data. -Thursday-Saturday (8-9 -10April.); organizing information and looking for other sources such like books, records, interviews in addition to writing the Abstract(outline) of the approaches that I'll apply in my project. Second Week: -Sunday 11 April; in the end of every week I check the work that I accomplished through the week and the plan for the next week. -Monday 12 April; meeting with my tutor to discuss my introduction, taking notes and asking questions about the way to apply the approaches. -Tues-Fri (13-16 April.); starting with my tutor report, after defining my approaches that I'll use starting with BECM. -Sat (17 April.); after reaching E & C I started to apply HSM to see whether I could determine routes to find a solution to my complexity. -Sunday 18 April; revising and proceeding in the eight stages of HSM. Third week: -Monday-Tuesday (18-21 April.); continuing the HSM approach defining the routes to choose the best one, but there was no clear route to objective. -Wed-Saturday (21-24 April.); moving to apply the SSM, visiting my tutor, discussing the previous stages, taking notes to apply the other approach SSM and to finish it. Week four: -Sun-Wednesday (25-28 April.); writing the report, and explaining to the client all the main points that I mentioned before, and then concluding by writing my recommendations mainly to the government and the local firms in order to provide a strategy to find jobs to the youth, with better pay to make them deny migration. -Thursday-Saturday (29April-1 May.); writing the Project log and detailing weekly planning and daily briefing through the stages of accomplishing my work. Week five:


-Sun-Tues. (2-4 May.); writing overall summery, explaining about migration of youth in an overview to the topic, and revising all the reports again and make some improvements, till I reach the end by submitting my project.

B-Overall summary: At the beginning I want to reflect on my course material T306 (Managing Complexity), that I consider very beneficial in its content where it contains logical approaches to study and solve the problem as it's consequence to T205 (Systems Thinking), that both are complementary to each other, the important issue that I gained from those materials beginning with diagramming which is made of several kinds of drawings (system map, spray diagram..), by which I gained new insights in my life by the way I started to perceive the complexity in my thinking (Holistic, Reduction….), and how it helped me in my project by improving my perspectives while dealing with the problem of Lebanese youth migration. This is regarded to the course material and the way I was able to respect the concepts in order to apply them in my project. After I searched for the required data that I needed for my research I started applying by developing the main points that I made to achieve in my project containing all the approaches and methodologies required. With respect to my experience, I can admit that now it's much better than before, because I was able to apply all the approaches I studied in T306 & T205 form diagramming, analyzing, and in being as a system practitioner where I studied the emigration concept, made lots of searches, compared records I got from municipalities, and gathered statistics to my questionnaire. All those things were to me as a start to begin applying on my approaches after I had all the data that I need to my project. Starting first I was afraid of applying the BECM, after I saw Taurus Project and how hard it was to get relevant data and tables to apply them on the four stages, then including the HSM that is also made up of eight stages. In the beginning I faced some conflicts after I defined my problem I didn't know what to draw as a diagram, till I made further research and noticed spray diagram suits well the case. I started to experience my knowledge mainly when I entered the Engaging and Contextualizing stages to apply the HSM where I found lots of problems especially in defining the routes to objectives and then finding the suitable one of them because there is no exact route that suits the case and makes a solution that ends the problem because it's made up of many conflicts derived from Economical and Political factors. Moving forward to Managing stage there is no clear route provided thus the problem wasn't managed properly as it should be. Regarding my understanding to the SSM which is my desperate challenge in the early beginnings, I started by defining my problem, my practice improved after the questionnaire where at first site I didn't have the exact questions that contributed to all sides of the problem, I gradually developed them by the aid of some friends and my tutor, passing to the Relevant System and Root definition I find it hard to define but with some help of the guiding lines I was able to make it clear.


In the end I became familiar with the concepts where I continued all the stages some where I was trapped with some tackles that faced me but thanks to all the support I had from everyone including my tutor and friends plus the records and interviews I made all assisted me in achieving my project well done.

References:

• Peter Checkland, Edited 2004, Logic driven inquiry, Rosalind Armson, Managing Complexity, the Open University, and p: 47-58.

• Trevor Livesey, Edited 2004, Systemic Learning Cycle, Simon bell and Jake Chapman, Managing Complexity, the Open University, p: 66-70.

• "A Report on the International Workshop on Sustainable Return of Professional and Skilled Migrants," Beirut, Lebanon, 7-8 march 2005, available online at [http://www.migrationdrc.org/news/reports/ReturnMigrationReport.pdf], accessed 18 December 2006.

• Boustan, Leah. “Fertility and Immigration.” UCLA. 15 Jan. 2009. • Benjamin Dolin and Margaret Young, Law and Government Division. • Fisher, W. and Hudson, J. (1997) Using diagrams – a diagram, unpublished

paper.

http://www.migrationdrc.org/news/reports/ReturnMigrationReport.pdf

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