Sushil finance commodity daily

Wednesday, January 07, 2015 For Private Circulation Only

MAJOR COMMODITIES

Commodity Expiry High Low Close Change

Commodity Expiry High Low Close ($) Change

Gold 5-Feb 27449 27083 27394 356

Gold (Oz) Feb 1223.30 1201.60 1219.40 15.40

Silver 5-Mar 38136 37052 37914 888

Silver (Oz) Mar 16.74 16.12 16.64 0.42

Crude Oil 16-Jan 3207 3047 3069 -146

Crude Oil Feb 50.37 47.55 47.93 -2.11

Natural Gas 27-Jan 189.40 179.70 183.00 -7.10

Natural Gas Feb 2.96 2.81 2.94 0.06

Copper 27-Feb 393.70 390.55 391.65 0.05

Copper 3M 6178.00 6114.00 6132.00 -10.00

Nickel 30-Jan 984.80 956.80 970.10 6.30

Nickel 3M 15525.00 15080.00 15257.00 132.00

Aluminium 30-Jan 114.95 112.40 112.60 -2.15

Aluminium 3M 1826.00 1785.00 1786.00 -37.00

Lead 30-Jan 118.60 116.75 117.20 0.00

Lead 3M 1864.00 1838.00 1842.75 1.75

Zinc 30-Jan 139.15 137.30 137.45 -0.75

Zinc 3M 2198.00 2169.75 2174.75 -8.25

News & Development

The US Institute for Supply Management said on Tuesday its services index fell to 56.2 last month, the lowest reading since June,

from 59.3 in November, which had left it just shy of revisiting its post-recession highs and new orders for manufactured goods fell

for a fourth straight month in November, signs the economy lost some momentum in the fourth quarter.

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said in a speech read for him that the country would deal with the challenge posed by

lower oil prices "with a firm will," giving no signs the No. 1 crude exporter will cut supplies.

The Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) suffered its biggest decline in more than three years in December,

falling to 55.8 from 58.6 in November to touch its lowest level since May 2013.

(Source: Reuters)

Commodity Daily

Gold

Gold jumped more than 1 percent to a three-week high on Tuesday, extending gains on safe-haven buying as stock markets slid on mounting concern over Greece's future in the euro zone and as oil prices tumbled. Political uncertainty in Greece ahead of the country's elections on Jan. 25 has renewed fears of a possible Greek exit from the euro zone. Investor sentiment was also rattled by a drop in oil prices to fresh 5-1/2 year lows as crude futures fell more than 4 percent, extending steep losses as worries over a global supply glut intensified. Meanwhile, data showed hedge funds and money managers raised their net long positions in gold futures and options for the first time in three weeks in the week to Dec. 30. New orders for U.S. factory goods fell for a fourth straight month in November while a gauge of growth in the U.S. services sector fell short of expectations in December, hitting a six-month low, data showed on Tuesday.

Outlook

We expect gold prices are likely to trade on positive note on the back of concern over Greece's future in the euro zone.

Technical Outlook

Gold Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Feb Buy @ S1 27100 27250 27394 27500 27650

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

Silver Silver was up 2.3 percent at $16.51 an ounce. Growth in the U.S. services sector braked in December and new orders for manufactured goods fell for a fourth straight month in November, signs the economy lost some momentum in the fourth quarter. But with domestic demand picking up, against the backdrop of lower gasoline prices and firming wage growth, any slowdown in economic growth is likely to be temporary.

Outlook We expect Silver prices are likely to trade on positive note on the back of concern over Greece's future in the euro zone.

Technical Outlook

Silver Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Mar Buy @ S1 37300 37600 37914 38300 38900


Commodity Daily

Crude Oil - Global oil markets on Tuesday slumped for a fourth straight session as mounting worries about a supply glut pressured crude prices, which have fallen almost 10 percent this week to their lowest since spring 2009. Traders said the trend for crude seemed lower but that prices could bounce up whenever there is a break in market sentiment. One such moment occurred on Tuesday when weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data briefly pushed the dollar lower. This brought crude off session lows but only for an about an hour, as the downward path resumed. On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said in a speech read for him that the country would deal with the challenge posed by lower oil prices "with a firm will," giving no signs the No. 1 crude exporter will cut supplies.

Outlook

We expect crude oil prices likely to trade on negative note on the back of increasing supply and decreasing demand is likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure.

Technical Outlook

Crude Oil Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Jan Sell @ R1 3000 3030 3069 3090 3120


Natural Gas U.S. natural gas futures settled up 2 percent on Tuesday, recouping half of the previous session's loss, as bets for colder weather helped the market recover from early lows pressured by falling oil prices. Weather models tracked by Thomson Reuters Analytics for the lower 48 U.S. states called for cold weather well below normal temperatures over the next two weeks. The models forecast 530 heating degree days, above Monday's forecast of 523 and markedly higher than the 462 norm for this time of year.

Outlook We expect Natural gas prices to trade on negative note on the back of lesser cold temperature forecast over the next few days.

Technical Outlook

Nat Gas Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Jan Sell @ R1 175 180 183 188 192


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Commodity Daily

LME Inventories Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium Nickel

Current Stock 178775 221975 685050 4194750 415338

Change 350 0 -1875 -9900 582

% Change 0.20% 0.00% -0.27% -0.24% 0.14%

Base Metals Copper fell on Tuesday as prices remained close to 4-1/2 year lows hit in the previous session due to dollar strength, plunging oil prices and concerns on demand from top consumer China as the country moves to raise output. There was also continued concern that a new export tax rebate for some copper products introduced by Beijing, a move expected to increase copper product shipments as much as tenfold, would contribute to an oversupply this year. The Ministry of Finance said China had put in place an export tax rebate of 9 percent for copper bars, rods and profiles at the start of 2015, while increasing the export tax rebate for copper foils to 17 percent from 13 percent. Aluminum also saw hefty falls taking the market back to its lowest since May last year.

Outlook We expect base metal prices to trade on the mixed as short term shortage and long term surplus is likely to keep base metals prices mixed.

Technical Outlook

Jan/Feb Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Copper Sell @ R1 386 389 391.6 393 395

Nickel Sideways 959 969 970.1 976 985

Alum Sideways 111 112 112.6 113.4 114

Lead Sell @ R1 115.5 116.4 117.2 118 119

Zinc Sideways 136 137.3 137.4 139 140


Commodity Daily

DATE TIME (IST) COUNTRY ECONOMIC DATA CONSENSUS PREVIOUS IMPACT

Wed, Jan 7 12:30pm EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.20% 1.90% Medium

2:25pm EUR German Unemployment Change -6K -14K Medium

3:30pm EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.00% 0.30% Medium

3:30pm EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.60% 0.70% High

3:30pm EUR Unemployment Rate 11.50% 11.50% Medium

6:45pm US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 227K 208K High

7:00pm US Trade Balance -42.3B -43.4B High

9:00pm US Crude Oil Inventories -1.8M Medium

For Further Assistance Contact: - 022-40934000

Ashish Shah Tejas Nikhar Mohit Agarwal AVP

[email protected] Sr. Research Analyst

[email protected] Research Analyst

[email protected] WE / OUR CLIENTS / OUR RELATIVES MAY HAVE PERSONAL TRADING / INVESTMENT INTEREST IN THE STOCKS MENTIONED HERE IN.

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This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its

accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report cannot be construed as a request to engage in any

transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts can be substantial, and therefore investors

should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and

for their results.

Additional information with respect to any commodities referred to herein will be available on request. Sushil Global Commodities Pvt. Ltd. and its

connected companies, and their respective Directors, Officers and employees, may, from time to time, have a long or short position in the commodities

mentioned and may sell or buy such commodities. Sushil Global may act upon or make use of information contained herein prior to the publication

thereof.

This data sheet is for private circulation only. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above, we claim no responsibility for its accuracy. We

shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof and the investors are requested to use the information contained herein

at their own risk.

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Sushil finance commodity daily

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