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  • 1. Wednesday, October 29, 2014 For Private Circulation OnlyMAJOR COMMODITIES Commodity Expiry High Low Close ChangeCommodity Expiry High Low Close ($) ChangeGold5-Dec272702711327135-79Gold (Oz)Dec1235.501222.201229.400.10 Silver 5-Dec 38467 38106 38129 -16Silver (Oz) Dec 17.40 17.06 17.23 0.06Crude Oil19-Nov5028495649856Crude OilNov81.6680.3681.420.42 Natural Gas 28-Oct 224.00 217.20 223.20 4.00Natural Gas Nov 3.68 3.54 3.65 0.09Copper28-Nov420.20416.90419.753.00Copper3M6795.006721.006790.0060.00 Nickel 31-Oct 954.40 901.20 951.00 50.60Nickel 3M 15650.00 14690.00 15610.00 910.00Aluminium31-Oct122.55121.55122.401.00Aluminium3M2004.001979.001995.0016.25 Lead 31-Oct 124.75 123.35 124.10 0.75Lead 3M 2048.00 2019.00 2033.25 19.25Zinc31-Oct138.90137.50138.20-0.40Zinc3M2265.002238.252257.000.00News & DevelopmentThe U.S. Commerce Department said orders for big-ticket items such as airplanes fell 1.3 percent in September following an 18.3 percent plunge in August. Analysts had expected a 0.5 percent rise last month. On the real estate front, S&P and Case-Shiller reported their index of home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell 0.1 percent in August, contrary to an expected 0.1 percent rise.U.S. consumer confidence rose in October to its highest level since October 2007 as views on the job market improved, according to a private sector report released on Tuesday. The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 94.5 from a upwardly revised reading of 89.0 the month before. Economists had expected a reading of 87.0, according to a Reuters poll.China's industrial profits in September edged up 0.4 percent from a year earlier, reversing a 0.6 percent annual decline in August, data showed on Tuesday.Barclays on Tuesday revised its Brent forecast for the first quarter of 2015 to $88 a barrel, down from $95, and U.S. crude to $78 from $87.(Source: Reuters)

2. Page 2Commodity DailyGoldGold prices edged higher on Tuesday as softer-than-expected U.S. consumer spending data pressured the dollar, ahead of a closely- watched Federal Reserve policy statement.Data showed demand for U.S.-made non-defence durable goods, excluding aircraft, fell 1.7 percent in September, its biggest drop in eight months and a cautionary note for an economy that otherwise seems to be moving forward at a steady clip.Investors are focusing on the Fed's latest policy statement on Wednesday afternoon, when the U.S. central bank will likely reinforce its stated willingness to wait for a long while before hiking interest rates, after a volatile month in financial markets.OutlookWe expect gold prices are likely to trade on positive note on the back of weaker than expected US economic data.Technical OutlookGoldStrategyS2S1CloseR1R2DecBuy @ S12700027090271352728027390*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advisedSilverSilver climbed 0.7 percent to $17.20 an ounce.Demand for U.S.-made capital goods recorded its biggest drop in eight months in September, a cautionary note for an economy that otherwise seems to be moving forward at a steady clip.A moderation in home price gains in August, also reported on Tuesday, offered a further suggestion the economy may have cooled a bit, although consumer confidence jumped to a seven-year high this month.OutlookWe expect Silver prices are likely to trade sideways as markets are awaiting outcome from the Feds 2-day meeting which would be out on Wednesday.Technical OutlookSilverStrategyS2S1CloseR1R2DecSideways3790038100381293850038800*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised 3. Page 3Commodity DailyCrude OilCrude oil prices closed higher on Tuesday, with Brent finishing just above $86 a barrel after two straight days of losses, helped by a weaker dollar and a rally on Wall Street.But worries about a third consecutive weekly build in U.S. crude inventories capped gains.After the market's settlement, data from industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.2 million barrels in the week to Oct. 24 to 375.1 million. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected a gain of 3.4 million barrels.Closely-watched stockpiles data from the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration is due at 8 p.m. today.Both Brent and U.S. crude were little changed in post-settlement trade after the API data.Fears of growing U.S. oil shale supply and OPEC's apparent reluctance to cut its own output have caused prices to fall about 25 percent since the end of June.While most banks have lower price forecasts next year for Brent and U.S. crude, some analysts think the markets may rebound quicker than projected.China's industrial profits slipped in the first nine months, data showed, reinforcing signs of a slowdown in the No. 1 oil importer.OutlookWe expect crude oil prices to trade on negative note as ample supply, Saudis willingness to accept Crude prices at current levels and slow Chinese economy are likely to put crude prices under pressure.Technical OutlookCrude OilStrategyS2S1CloseR1R2NovBuy @ S149254960498550055030*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advisedNatural GasU.S. natural gas futures fell to an 11-month low before ending up 2.5 percent on midday forecasts calling for much cooler weather expected to boost heating demand to near-normal levels over the next two weeks.MDA Weather Services forecast cold weather in the U.S. Midwest over the next five days.OutlookWe expect Natural gas prices to trade on positive note on the back of forecast of cold weather over next few days.Technical OutlookNat GasStrategyS2S1CloseR1R2NovBuy @ S1223226229.6230233*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised 4. Page 4Commodity DailyLME InventoriesCopperLeadZincAluminiumNickel Current Stock 161050 224550 708225 4436450 378864Change1500150-2850-10750642 % Change 0.94% 0.07% -0.40% -0.24% 0.17%Base MetalsCopper prices hit a two-week high on Tuesday as the outlook for rising supply was tarnished by looming strikes at two key mines while expectations of higher demand from top consumer China helped reinforce optimism.Workers at Freeport-McMoRan's FCX.N Indonesian copper mine will hold a one-month strike from next week and those at Peru's biggest copper mine, Antamina, plan to start an indefinite strike from Nov. 10.In a quarterly profit release, Freeport said a large percentage of Grasberg open pit operators had not reported for scheduled shifts, resulting in lower production from its open pit copper mine in October. It also reported a 32 percent drop in quarterly profit, hurt by lower metals prices.On the demand side, Chinese firms showed slight improvement with industrial profits in September up 0.4 percent from a year earlier, reversing a 0.6 percent annual decline in August, data showed on Tuesday.In other metals, nickel surged 5.25 percent to end at $15,550 - its highest in about a week, as investors reassessed the buy-side case given key supplier Indonesia's ore export ban.Nickel has posted losses for the last seven weeks running as Philippines supply to China rose, partly filling the gap caused by an Indonesia ore export ban that sent price up by some 40 percent in the first half.OutlookWe expect base metal prices to trade mixed as short term shortage and long term surplus is likely to keep prices mixed.Technical OutlookNov/OctStrategyS2S1CloseR1R2CopperBuy @ S1415417419.7420422NickelBuy @ S1925935951.0963970AlumSideways121122122.4122.5123.5LeadBuy @ S1122.5123.5124.1124.5125.5ZincSideways136.3137.2138.2139.5140.5*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised 5. Page 5Commodity DailyDateTIME (IST)COUNTRYECONOMIC DATACONSENSUSPREVIOUSIMPACT Wed, Oct 29 5:20am Japan Prelim Industrial Production m/m 2.30% -1.90% Medium3:00pmUKNet Lending to Individuals m/m2.8B3.2BMedium 8:00pm US Crude Oil Inventories 7.1M Medium11:30pmUSFOMC StatementHigh 11:30pm US Federal Funds Rate