Sushil finance commodity daily.pdf

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Tuesday, December 30, 2014 For Private Circulation Only MAJOR COMMODITIES Commodity Expiry High Low Close Change Commodity Expiry High Low Close ($) Change Gold 5-Feb 27070 26725 26764 -309 Gold (Oz) Feb 1197.50 1178.60 1181.90 -13.40 Silver 5-Mar 37534 36431 36484 -831 Silver (Oz) Mar 16.26 15.72 15.78 -0.37 Crude Oil 18-Dec 3568 3396 3414 -133 Crude Oil Dec 55.74 52.90 53.61 -1.12 Natural Gas 26-Dec 204.80 195.40 203.80 11.90 Natural Gas Jan 3.21 3.02 3.19 0.18 Copper 27-Feb 403.95 399.35 401.15 0.70 Copper 3M 6316.00 6230.00 6255.00 -57.25 Nickel 31-Dec 980.00 955.10 956.30 -9.10 Nickel 3M 15468.00 15035.00 15054.00 -239.00 Aluminium 31-Dec 117.85 116.35 117.25 0.25 Aluminium 3M 1876.50 1849.00 1863.50 -3.25 Lead 31-Dec 118.10 115.25 115.40 -2.20 Lead 3M 1863.00 1816.25 1822.50 -35.00 Zinc 31-Dec 138.20 135.80 136.00 -1.15 Zinc 3M 2173.00 2137.00 2139.00 -20.75 News & Development As expected, Greece failed to elect a new president, which put the country's bailout program at risk. Growth in China's manufacturing sector likely slowed to a 18-month low in December, a Reuters poll showed, adding to signs of a protracted slowdown in the world's second-largest economy that may prompt authorities to roll out more stimulus measures. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will change rules governing how loan-to-deposit ratios are calculated at banks starting from next year, according to a copy of a central bank document seen by Reuters, in a move that will boost liquidity conditions. Growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to slow to 7 percent next year from a forecast 7.3 percent this year, partly due to weakness in global economies, a top Chinese government think-tank said in a report published on Monday. The number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States fell to near nine-month lows in the latest week, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes Inc showed on Monday, as low crude prices continue to squeeze the industry. (Source: Reuters)

Transcript of Sushil finance commodity daily.pdf

Page 1: Sushil finance commodity daily.pdf

Tuesday, December 30, 2014 For Private Circulation Only

MAJOR COMMODITIES

Commodity Expiry High Low Close Change

Commodity Expiry High Low Close ($) Change

Gold 5-Feb 27070 26725 26764 -309

Gold (Oz) Feb 1197.50 1178.60 1181.90 -13.40

Silver 5-Mar 37534 36431 36484 -831

Silver (Oz) Mar 16.26 15.72 15.78 -0.37

Crude Oil 18-Dec 3568 3396 3414 -133

Crude Oil Dec 55.74 52.90 53.61 -1.12

Natural Gas 26-Dec 204.80 195.40 203.80 11.90

Natural Gas Jan 3.21 3.02 3.19 0.18

Copper 27-Feb 403.95 399.35 401.15 0.70

Copper 3M 6316.00 6230.00 6255.00 -57.25

Nickel 31-Dec 980.00 955.10 956.30 -9.10

Nickel 3M 15468.00 15035.00 15054.00 -239.00

Aluminium 31-Dec 117.85 116.35 117.25 0.25

Aluminium 3M 1876.50 1849.00 1863.50 -3.25

Lead 31-Dec 118.10 115.25 115.40 -2.20

Lead 3M 1863.00 1816.25 1822.50 -35.00

Zinc 31-Dec 138.20 135.80 136.00 -1.15

Zinc 3M 2173.00 2137.00 2139.00 -20.75

News & Development

As expected, Greece failed to elect a new president, which put the country's bailout program at risk.

Growth in China's manufacturing sector likely slowed to a 18-month low in December, a Reuters poll showed, adding to signs of a

protracted slowdown in the world's second-largest economy that may prompt authorities to roll out more stimulus measures.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will change rules governing how loan-to-deposit ratios are calculated at banks starting from next

year, according to a copy of a central bank document seen by Reuters, in a move that will boost liquidity conditions.

Growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to slow to 7 percent next year from a forecast 7.3 percent this year,

partly due to weakness in global economies, a top Chinese government think-tank said in a report published on Monday.

The number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States fell to near nine-month lows in the latest week, data from oil services firm

Baker Hughes Inc showed on Monday, as low crude prices continue to squeeze the industry.

(Source: Reuters)

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Commodity Daily

Gold

Gold fell on Monday, giving back most of the previous session's sharp short-covering gains, and silver fell also, as a strong U.S. dollar and bearish chart signals offset uncertainty over the prospect of fresh elections in Greece. Trading volumes were thin due to the Christmas and year-end holidays. Floor trading for CME Group's precious and base metals futures and options products will be closed on Jan. 1. European shares and periphery euro zone bonds earlier tumbled on news that the Greek parliament rejected the government's presidential candidate, setting the stage for an election that the anti bailout Syriza party could win. Demand for the metal was soft overnight in Asia, the primary market for physical gold dealing. However, China's gold imports from Hong Kong in November rose to their highest level since February, indicating strong demand in the world's top bullion consumer ahead of the Lunar New Year.

Outlook

We expect gold prices are likely to trade sideways on the back of US holiday season.

Technical Outlook

Gold Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Feb Sideways 26600 26700 26745 26900 27000

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

Silver Silver was down 1.7 percent at $15.74 an ounce, reversing earlier gains and extending losses after breaking through support at $16. Trading volumes were thin due to the Christmas and year-end holidays. Floor trading for CME Group's precious and base metals futures and options products will be closed on Jan. 1.

Outlook We expect Silver prices are likely to trade sideways on the back of US holiday season.

Technical Outlook

Silver Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Mar Sideways 36000 36400 36484 36800 37200

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

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Commodity Daily

Crude Oil Crude oil prices on tumbled on Monday, with global grades settling down more than $1 a barrel after an early rally fizzled and prices fell to their lowest levels since May 2009. News of further damage Libya's oil infrastructure prompted the early rally that was quickly erased as pervasive fears of global oversupply trumped concerns about output curtailment from the OPEC producer. OPEC has been reluctant to give up market share to boost tumbling oil prices, with Saudi Arabia stepping back from its historic role as a swing producer.

Outlook

We expect crude oil prices likely to trade on negative note on the back of increasing supply and decreasing demand is likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure.

Technical Outlook

Crude Oil Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Jan Sell @ R1 3350 3380 3414 3430 3460

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

Natural Gas U.S. natural gas futures jumped 6 percent on Monday, the biggest daily leap in more than a month, on forecasts for colder temperatures that could boost demand for heating. Gas futures had their biggest rally since a Nov. 17 rise of 8 percent. On Friday, gas hit a 27-month bottom on concerns over mild winter weather. Some analysts said thin holiday-season trading volumes may have exaggerated the move higher. The expiration of the January contract as the front-month also caused some position squaring that contributed to the price action, traders said. Weather models tracked by Thomson Reuters Analytics showed a potentially higher-than-usual requirement for heat in the lower 48 U.S. states in the next two weeks. According to the data, there could be 515 Heating Degree Days versus the 460 that are normal for this time of year.

Outlook We expect Natural gas prices to trade on negative note on the back of normal temperature over the next few days.

Technical Outlook

Nat Gas Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Dec Sell @ R1 196 200 203.8 207 210

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

\

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Commodity Daily

LME Inventories Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium Nickel

Current Stock 171850 222025 693400 4223225 410808

Change 0 1000 -600 -8050 -72

% Change 0.00% 0.45% -0.09% -0.19% -0.02%

Base Metals Copper fell on Monday, hitting its lowest level in four and a half years as investors booked profits ahead of the year-end amid persistent concerns about a strong dollar and a growth slowdown in top consumer China. Growth in China's manufacturing sector likely slowed to a 18-month low in December, a Reuters poll showed earlier, adding to signs of a protracted economic malaise that may prompt authorities to roll out more stimulus measures. In a bid to boost liquidity and reinvigorate productive business investment, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) will change rules governing how loan-to-deposit ratios are calculated at banks starting from next year. Still, a top Chinese government think tank said on Monday that the country's economy is expected to slow to 7 percent growth next year from a forecast 7.3 percent this year.

Outlook We expect base metal prices to trade mostly on the negative on the back of slowing industrial growth in China.

Technical Outlook

Dec/Feb Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Copper Sell @ R1 396 399 401.1 402 405

Nickel Sell @ R1 945 955 956.3 962 970

Alum Sell @ R1 115.5 116.5 117.2 117.5 118.5

Lead Sell @ R1 114 115 115.4 116.5 117.5

Zinc Sell @ R1 134.5 135.5 136.0 137 138

*Investors can use S2/R2 as Stop Loss/Target depending upon the strategy advised

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Commodity Daily

For Further Assistance Contact: - 022-40934000

Ashish Shah Tejas Nikhar Mohit Agarwal AVP

[email protected] Sr. Research Analyst

[email protected] Research Analyst

[email protected] WE / OUR CLIENTS / OUR RELATIVES MAY HAVE PERSONAL TRADING / INVESTMENT INTEREST IN THE STOCKS MENTIONED HERE IN.

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accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report cannot be construed as a request to engage in any

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