Modelling & Simulation Division Activities:

A: Quantitative Modelling & Simulation:

B: Data Warehousing, OLAP & Data Mining:

A.Quantitative Modelling & Simulation:Objectives:To:

- Create awareness on modelling techniques; it’s benefits and the way to use them

- Provide training and consultancy on OR, statistical and other quantitative techniques

- Make available the state-of-the-art modelling infrastructure facilities for

use by the planner(s) and administrator(s) at the centre, state and district level- Development of indigenous software packages, and application development using sectorial integrated databases

Domain Area of Application:

Core Management Techniques:- PRE-PROCESSING OF LARGE STATISTICAL INFORMATION- STATISTICAL ANALYSES AND MODELLING- OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUES- PROJECT MANAGEMENT- SYSTEM DYNAMICS- FORECASTING TECHNIQUES:

• TIME SERIES MODELS• ECONOMETRIC MODELS• NEURAL NETWORK BASED MODELS

DATA WAREHOUSING, OLAP AND DATA MINING(INCLUDING TEXT)

SPECIFIC STUDIES/APPLICATIONS/SYSTEMS-Associated With: Central Government:• Simulation Model for Cadre ManagementUser: Department of Personnel & Training• Computerized Rolling Industry Supply Plan Model for All India Petroleum Products Movement-A linear programming model for transportation and distribution of major petroleum productsUser: OCC/Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas

• POL consumption forecast for Indian ArmyUser: Oil Coordination Committee (OCC)/Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas• Price Anomalies System for Petroleum Product(s) at Retail Price Outlets

- A mathematical model to decide level of imposition of surcharge for different modes of transports

User: OCC/Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas

• Medium Range Production Planning Optimization Model for Vizag Refinery

- Monthly production/operation Plan- (Linear Programming Model)

User: OCC/Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas • Optimum Location, Number(s) and Capacities of LPG Bottling Plant(s) and Optimal Distribution Plan for a defined time horizon- A studyUser: OCC/Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas

• Optimal Routing using Networking Techniques for Coal Movement throughout the country based on Djikstra AlgorithmUser: Energy Policy Division/Planning Commission• Support to National Energy Model: Coal, Petroleum products and Natural Gas Models and Report Generation SystemUser: High Power Committee on Energy Policy Planning/ Planning Commission

• DSS for Optimal Import and Production Plan for Maximum Availability of DAPUser: Department of Agriculture and Cooperation/Ministry of Agriculture

• Seasonally Adjusted Models for India’s Export and Re-export Series based on X-11 Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodologyUser: Ministry of Commerce

• Computer Aided Optimization Model-Transportation and Distribution System for Fertilizer MovementUser: Department of Agriculture and Cooperation/Ministry of Agriculture• *A Decision Support Optimization Model for the Transportation and Distribution of Fertilizer Product Using Multi-objective criterion-Goal ProgrammingUser: Department of Fertilizer/Ministry of Agriculture

• Statistical Modelling Support to the Working Group on fertilizers for the 9th Five Year PlanUser: Working Group/Department of Fertilizer/Ministry of Agriculture

• Policy Planning Model for the Effective Management of Public Distribution SystemUser: Ministry of Food and Consumer Affairs

• Forecasting and Monitoring Whole Sale Price Indices (WPI)-Rate of InflationUser: Planning Commission and Ministry of Industry

• Generalized model for optimal selection of nutritional diet-ProposalUser: Department of Sports/Ministry of HRD

• A study on Determinants for the Production of Steel in IndiaUser: Planning Commission/Ministry of Programme Implementation

• A Forecasting System for Index of Industrial Production(IIP) based on ARIMA MethodologyUser: Ministry of Industry

• *TABGENIC: 6th All India Education Survey-SIF-II TabulationUser: NCERT/Department of Education/Ministry of HRD

• Establishment of Project Management Cell in the Administrative Ministries for the Management of Central Sector ProjectsUser: Office of the Cabinet Secretariat

• Analysis and development of Project Management System for Khadia Coal ProjectUser: Ministry of Coal and Mines

• ANALYST- General purpose interactive statistical analyses toolUser: All NIC users-internal and external

• Project Monitoring Model for Operations Blackboard- CPM PERT based system to provide minimum infrastructure facilities to every school throughout the country-monitoring and control systemUser: Department of Education, Ministry of Human Resource Development

• Price Elasticity Analysis Study for Newspaper Circulation- To ascertain the effects of the prices of newspaper and per capita income on the newspaper circulation using Statistical Regression ModelUser: Economic Adviser, Ministry of Labour

• A study on Crime Projections till 2000 AD- Interactive forecasting system for all India Violent, Non-violent crimesUser: Bureau of Police Research & Development, Ministry of Home Affairs

• All India Fertilizer Distribution and Movement Plan System based on multi-objective criterion-Goal ProgrammingUser: DAC/Ministry of Agriculture

• *Technical Proposal-Project Management System for monitoring and control-Ganga Action Plan Phase-IIUser: Ministry of Environment and Forest

• Performance Evaluation System for India’s export/import based on ARIMA methodologyUser: Ministry of Commerce

• Appraisal Report on DOEACC Application SystemUser: DOEACC/Department of Information Technology

• Demand Forecasting based on Neural Network for High Powered Fertilizer Committee, to review the international Pricing Policy for all fertilizersUser: Research and Information System/ Ministry of External Affairs

• Objective based software selection for Statistical/Econometric systems-A studyUser: Department of Economic Affairs/ Ministry of Finance• National & Regional monthly demand forecast for N, P and K based on Neural Network approachUser: Department of Agriculture & Cooperation(DAC)/Ministry of Agriculture• Fertilizer Demand Projection(s) for the working group on fertilizer for 10th five year plan periodUser: Department of Agriculture & Cooperation(DAC)/Ministry of Agriculture

PSUs/Autonomous Institutions:

• A System Study(Sizing) Report for computing requirements of NCAERUser: National Council of Applied Economic Research• *Computer Aided Forecasting Study-All India Fertilizer(N, P and K) DemandUser: Fertilizer Association of India• Feasibility study on “Decision support system for optimal distribution of rural energy at district level-ProposalUser: Tata Energy Research Institute

• Investment planning model for the development of Inland Container Depot infrastructure for freight containers movement-Simulation Technique approachUser: High Power Committee on Transport Planning/Planning Commission• Development & Implementation of Transportation & Distribution plan systemUser: Madras Fertilizers, Chennai• All India Fertilizers Demand projection(s) till year 2000User: Fertilizer Association of India

• Methodology for All India transportation and distribution of food grains-A studyUser: Food Corporation of India• *CPM/PERT based Monitoring System for Construction of Food grain StoragesUser: Food Corporation of India• * Appraisal Report on NJPC-TCS Study for Project Management FunctionUser: Nathpa Jhakri Power Corporation

STATE GOVERNMENTS:

• Optimal Liquor Inventory Management SystemUser: IMFL Division/Delhi Transport and Tourism Development Corporation/Government of Delhi

• System Study Report on PDS for Specified Food Articles MovementUser: Delhi State Civil Supplies Corporation/Government of NCT

• Decision Support System for Health Facility Planning in a stateUser: Government of Rajasthan

• Computer Aided Supervisor Assignment System for Board Examination-An Optimization System-A StudyUser: Department of Education/Haryana Government

• Optimal Peak Electricity Load Management SystemUser: Orissa Electricity Board/Government of Orissa

• Dead Mileage Reduction System for State Transport CorporationUser: Karnataka State Transport Corporation/Government of Karnataka

• *Computerized Reservoir Storage and Level Forecasting System using ARIMAUser: Dhom Dam/Department of Irrigation/Government of Maharastra• PDS Commodities Distribution and Movement Planning SystemUser: Department of Food and Supply/Government of Gujarat • Optimization System for Passenger Transport Facility Planning System-Maximizing the passenger bus services and maximizing the rate of returnUser: State Transport Corporation/Himachal Pradesh Government

Generalized Applications:

• Forecasting and Monitoring Based on ARIMA/Box-Jenkins Methodology• Generalized Decision Support System for Transportation and Distribution Planning System using Multi-objective Criterion• A Decision Support System(DSS) for Multi-Criteria Transportation and Distribution Problems

• Forecast consultant for Final Forecasting Technique Selection• Optimization algorithms(Linear and Goal Programming) using product form of inverse approach• Optimal distribution of funds for different sectors of Indian economy using multi-objective goal programming approach• Generalized ARIMA algorithm developed based on Box and Jenkins

• Web based Agriculture/Food price monitoring system for District level markets• Generalized Multi criterion Transportation & Distribution system based on GP for movement of all products(Fertilizer, Food grains, Coal Steel, etc.)

B. DATAWAREHOUSING, OLAP AND DATA MINING

• Data Warehouse/OLAP/Data Mining System for central sector projects- Projects Costing Rs.20 crores and aboveUser: Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation

DETAILED DESCRIPTION:

• DSS FOR OPTIMAL IMPORT AND PRODUCTION PLAN FOR MAXIMUM AVAILABILITY OF DAP FERTILIZERUser: Department of Agriculture and Cooperation/Ministry of Agriculture

+ Limited Foreign Exchange Availability+ Three Type of Import Options

1. Finished product[i.e.,DAP]2.Rock Phosphate+Sulphur3.Phosphoric Acid+Ammonia

+ Option 2 and 3 also involves Production Cost+ (Lead) Time Available+ Port Handling Constraints Find out the Import Plan, which gives maximum DAP, which implies maximum utilization of Plants

• COMPUTERIZED RESERVOIR STORAGE AND LEVEL FORECASTING SYSTEM USING ARIMA METHODOLOGYUser: Dhom Dam/Department of Irrigation/Government of Maharashtra+ Daily/Weekly Reservoir Storage Level Monitoring+ Seven days ahead forecast of storage

level using Univariate Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology

+ MIS Query and Report system+ Graphical display and analyses of storage level+ Implemented in Dhom Dam of satara

District, Maharastra+ Developed on UNIX Platform+ With some fine-tuning can be used in

other dams

• PDS COMMODITIES DISTRIBUTION AND MOVEMENT PLANNING SYSTEMUser: Department of Food and Civil Supplies/Government of Gujarat+ Fortnightly movement of Wheat and Rice and monthly for Sugar+ Centre allocates the quantity every

month [depending on the stock]

+ FCI Regional Center, Gujarat identifies the quantity and the godowns from where the state has to lift+ Limited Transport Vehicles+ Limited Time+ Huge Transport Cost involvement+ Software constructs the optimization

model; runs; generates the movement plan with minimum cost and time

• FORECASTING AND MONITORING WHOLE SALE PRICE INDICES(WPI)-RATE OF INFLATIONUser: Planning Commission and Ministry of Industry

+ Only actual WPI values released by Advisor, Ministry of Industry have been used

+ Actual Monthly Data from Apr 1982 to Mar 1993 used

+ Unvariate ARIMA Methodology used+ The actual value for monthly price index is obtained after a time lag of two months

+ The monthly price index is a simple arithmetic average of the

corresponding weekly price indices of the month

+ The forecast model equation, along with various error statistics is

provided