Media

5/1/2012

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form

• Upon completion of this course, students will be able to:– discuss and critically analyze political events in the

United States government

– students will be able to identify and explain the role of informal institutions and their effect on policy.

Office Hours and Readings

• Pages 130-151

• Office Hours– Today 11-1:30– Wednesday 10-2

The Media and Politics III

HORSE RACE COVERAGEHow the Media Makes things exciting

Horse Race Coverage

• What is it?

• What does it contain

• Why?

Type of Coverage in 2008 Primary

Content Coverage in the Primary

60%17%

15%

8%

Horse Race Background and Personal Issue Other

Horse Race Dominates 2008 General

Content Coverage in the General Election

51%

20%

19%

5% 5%

Horserace Issue Advertising/$ Personal Lives Public Record

DEBATES

Presidential Debates

• A Recent Phenomenon

• General Strategies

• Do not screw up

Why Candidates Like these

• A chance for exposure

• A chance for Legitimacy

• A chance to move in the polls

Presidential Debates

• Who Wins (the leader in the polls)

• The Person who doesn’t make a mistake

• Does it matter?

Presidential Debates

• Win by not losing

• What don't you want to do? – The 1960 Debate– Look ancient– Seem heartless– You are no Jack Kennedy– Eastern Europe is Free– The Global Test– Adm. James Stockdale

• Blind , Deaf, Dumb

THE MEDIA STRATEGY

The Media Strategy

• Getting the Message Out– Paid Advertisements

– Free Press

• You campaign for votes and you campaign for media by getting free coverage

• Avoid cannibalizing

Getting Free Press

• Having your message get covered by the media

• You can reach a wide audience and It is not costing you money

• This is fully mediated

Maximizing Free Coverage

• Create a package

• Convey a winning message

• Shape an Image

Maximizing Free Coverage

• Don’t Say too Much

• Repeat the Few Basic Points

• Bad Press is Bad Press

The Role of the Media

• Is an informal institution

• Is a linkage institution

• It is profit driven

The Media and Opinion Formation

• We are exposed to it constantly, but does it matter?

• Direct Effects model says it matters a lot

Indirect Effects Model

• Two-Step flow Model

• The Role of Elites

THE MINIMAL EFFECTS MODELDoes the media really matter

The Minimal Effects Model

• The Fall Campaign is not that important

• Most people have made up their mind

Spurious/Minimal effects model

• We do not seek out political information

• We have selective/exposure perception

• We rarely make major changes

Who is influenced the most

• Those with the least political attention

• Those without stable party identification

• Elections can swing if it is close

GATEKEEPING AND AGENDA SETTING

What the Media Does: Agenda Setting

• What is it

• Bring Matters to the forefront, or conceal them

Goals of Agenda Setting

• Make people aware of issues

• Make issue salient

• Set the priority of issues

Gatekeepers

• Key people who control what we watch

• Help to shape political priorities

• Driven by profit

What gatekeepers use

• The authority of the source

• The Amount of Controversy

• The importance

What gatekeepers use

• The authority of the source

• The Amount of Controversy

• The importance

WHERE WE GET OUR POLITICAL INFORMATION

Where we get Political Information

The Type of Media Matters

• Television is the most important

• The internet is the fastest, but has the most bias

We Would Rather Watch Mistakes

• Bad Sushi

• People Falling

• A great collection

Newspapers and Magazines

• Newspapers– Provide more

information and Detail– Very few cities have

multiple papers anymore

• Magazines- vary in content and quality

The Decline of Old media

THE PRESIDENT AND THE MEDIA

The President Needs the Media

• Amplify his Message

• Coordinate the Message

• Try and set the Agenda

The President will try to Make News

• Make the media aware of what he is doing

• Generate news by the power of the office

The President Vs. The Media

The President• Create a favorable image of

himself

• Push Positive News

• Minimize bad news

The Media• Report all news, especially

that which will sell

• Try to get it out there first

• Set the agenda before the President

THE MEDIA AND CAMPAIGNS

Why a campaign?

• Minimal effects model says most people don’t switch

• Go after weak partisans and independents

• Make sure your base comes out

When are Campaigns Most important

• When we know nothing about the candidates

• There is no counter-information

• When the information is important

Why you try to get

Horse Race Coverage

• What is it?

• What does it contain

• Why?

Following The Polls

The keys to horse race coverage

• Polling

• Perception

• No issues

Component I: Categorizer

• Sorts the candidates into winners and losers

• Creates an Image for the candidate

Component II: Expectation Setter

• Puts odds on the candidates

• You want to be at the top… duh

• But it isn't as good as you might think

Component III: Mentioner

• You want the media to notice you

• Not all press is good press

• Mentions mean money and votes

Component IV:Winnowing

• The Press Winnows (narrows) down the candidates

• Attention is on Iowa and NH

• Frontloading is the results

Type of Coverage in 2008 Primary

Content Coverage in the Primary

60%17%

15%

8%

Horse Race Background and Personal Issue Other

Horse Race Dominates 2008 General

Content Coverage in the General Election

51%

20%

19%

5% 5%

Horserace Issue Advertising/$ Personal Lives Public Record

DEBATES

Presidential Debates

• A Recent Phenomenon

• General Strategies

• Do not screw up

Why Candidates Like these

• A chance for exposure

• A chance for Legitimacy

• A chance to move in the polls

Presidential Debates

• Who Wins (the leader in the polls)

• The Person who doesn’t make a mistake

• Does it matter?

Presidential Debates

• Win by not losing

• What don't you want to do? – The 1960 Debate– Look ancient– Seem heartless– You are no Jack Kennedy– Eastern Europe is Free– The Global Test– Adm. James Stockdale

• Blind , Deaf, Dumb

THE MEDIA STRATEGY

The Media Strategy

• Getting the Message Out– Paid Advertisements

– Free Press

• You campaign for votes and you campaign for media by getting free coverage

• Avoid cannibalizing

Getting Free Press

• Having your message get covered by the media

• You can reach a wide audience and It is not costing you money

• This is fully mediated

Maximizing Free Coverage

• Create a package

• Convey a winning message

• Shape an Image

Maximizing Free Coverage

• Don’t Say too Much

• Repeat the Few Basic Points

• Bad Press is Bad Press

POLITICAL ADVERTISING

Political Advertising

• Unmediated

• Protected by First Amendment

• Why So Popular?

Targeting Ads and their Effect

• Uncommitted voters vs Partisans

• When are they Most Effective?

• Ads are a sign of political viability

Why you try to get

Candidate Credibility

• We have to trust the messenger

• Issue Ownership

• Try to focus on your best issue

Getting More Votes

• Delivering a positive message about your candidate (mobilizing)

• Deliver a negative message about the opposition (mobilizing/demobilizing)

Biographical Ads

• Inform us about the Candidate

• Very important early in the campaign

Examples of Bio Ads

• We have Come A long Way since Ike

• Bio Ads in 2008– Obama bio ad – McCain bio ad

• What you do not want to say

Issue Ads

• Focus on a specific issue or a policy area

• Associate yourself with favorable policies

• Do not mention issue weakness

Examples of Issue Ads

• The Bear in the Woods in 1984

• Mike Huckabee and Chuck Norris...

• Hillary Clinton- Attack/Issue Ad

• The Herman Cain “Smoking” Ad

Attack Ads

• The Norm Rather than the Exception

• The Mother of all Attack Ads

The Effect of Attack ads on voters

• Some voters become disenchanted and disaffected

• Your Base Loves them!

How Effective are these

• If they didn’t work, candidates wouldn’t run them

• The Lessons of 1988– The Revolving Door

– Willie Horton

Why They Work and Who uses them more

• We don’t trust politicians

• They are more memorable and informative

• Challengers and vulnerable incumbents use them

Do Not Give your Opponent Ammo

• Never go to a Playboy Party

• Don’t Drive a Tank with a big helmet

• Gee, thanks a lot IKE

• The Defining Sound bite of 2008

How To Deal with them

• Defend the Charges– Kerry Flip-Flopping on the issues – The Kerry Rebuttal

• Counterattack on the same issue or up the ante- The Puppy Ad

• Attack the Credibility of your opponent

How not to deal with them

• Do Nothing– The Initial Ad– Swiftboats– Kerry’s rebuttal to swiftboats?

• If you get Punched in the nose, you must punch back

How the attack can backfire

• If you are seen as being too evil

Ads Can Backfire

• You do it too late to make a difference

• You bring a knife to a gun fight