Voting

11/9/2011

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form

• Upon completion of this course, students will be able to:– discuss and critically analyze political events in the

United States government– assess the 2010 and 2012 elections without

resorting to partisan bickering.

Office Hours and Readings

• Chapter 5• Chapter 4 (110-129)

• Office Hours– Thursday 8-11:00– Monday 8-10:30

We Know Why We Vote

BUT WHO DO WE VOTE FOR?

Very Simple

PARTY IDENTIFICATIONThe Long Term Factor

Party ID

• Psychological attachment to one of the parties

• Long Term Factor

• Best Predictor of Voting

• Influences other short-term factors

Party ID Rocks

Cleveland Rocks

2008 Vote by Party ID

The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008

• Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain

• There are more Democrats in the electorate

• Obama wins

ISSUE VOTINGThis is hard

Issue Voting is Hard

• We are clueless

• Too many issues

• We don’t trust or understand policy

Easy/Single Issue Voting

Most Important Issues in 2008

Retrospective Analysis

• Looking back at the economy

• Easier to do if there is an incumbent

The Economy

• The events of 9/14- Voters disagreed with McCain on the Economy

Economics

Economics

CANDIDATE APPRAISALSWe Vote for Who We Like

Party Image

• Impacts our views of the candidate

• Very important for prospective voting

• McCain has a terrible party image in 2008

The Republican Brand

The Third Term

Retrospective voting on Bush

• Bush is Unpopular

McCain Vs. Bush

• In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush

• In reality no way to distance himself from Bush

Candidate Image

• Try to create your own

• Use issues to your advantage

• Don’t Let the Media create one for you

Hope and Change

• A message that worked

• It meant everything and nothing at the same time

Change

• Randy Marsh on

– Change

– Change

Hope as a message

Change

Bad Images

THE ELECTION OF 2010

The Results

The Nationalized Election

• National factors trumped local factors for the third time

• This time around, these factors favored the GOP

• This Hurts Incumbents

Party ID Rules the Day

People do not like Congress

Issues and 2010

The Issues of 2010

THE ECONOMYThe Primary Issue

A Referendum on the Economy

Unemployment

Who is to Blame?

Health Care Opinion Remained Divided

A Referendum on Obama

THE TEA PARTYThe X factor in 2010

The Tea Party Movement

• Unique in that they do not want anything from government

• Very Motivated

The Tea Party was unified in its Anger at Government

The Tea Party Tapped into Angry Voters

The Tea party was a Popular Movement

With Motivated Voters on Election Day

BETTING ON OBAMAThe odds in 2012

Incumbency

• The Last incumbents who lost were– 1992– 1980– 1976

• He is facing no primary challenger

Campaign Finance

• $1,000,000,000

• Independent Expenditures as Well

• Any Republican must get at least 2/3 of this

The Electoral College

Popular on the Left

• Strong Support Among Democrats

• Very popular among key constituencies

• Policies are popular, and he is personally popular

Overall Popularity Close To 50%

GDP Growth

Figure 9.4 Presidential vote by income growth, 1948–2008

For the GOP to win, they need a candidate who can expand the

Republican Map

THE 2012 ELECTIONFour Scenarios

Going In to 2012

• Both Parties are optimistic

• Unknowns– The Economy

– The Republican Nominee

– Seats in the House and Senate

Scenario 1: The Status Quo

• Little Change in either the House or Senate

• A “personal victory” for Obama (e.g. 1984) or the failure by the opposition (2004).

• Good odds of this happening

Scenario 2: An Emerging Democratic Majority

• Coincides with an Obama victory

• The Democrats take back the House, expand lead in the Senate

• A return to the Obama Coalition of 2009-11.

Scenario 3: A Republican Congress

• GOP keeps the House

• The GOP Surges in the Senate-

• This leads to full-scale battle between the President and Congress

Scenario 4: A Republican Sweep

• The GOP maintains the House

• Gains 4 in the Senate

• Wins the Presidency

• Least Likely

2012 will be about turnout in battleground states

SOME NATIONS LOVE TO VOTEVoting in a Comparative Perspective

Why so high elsewhere?

• Compulsory voting

• Fewer Elections

• PR systems and MMD

Why Turnout Should Be High in the USA

• Easier To Register

• A National two-party system

• A better-educated population

Despite this, fewer Americans Vote! We call the Paradox of

Participation

TURNOUT: THE GOOD AND BAD

Why Low turnout is bad

• Groups who do not vote, get used by those that do

• Voting levels the playing field

• Voting is essential for democracy to succeed

Why Low Turnout is not that bad

• Low Turnout is actually a good thing

• People are not voting for the wrong candidate

• Stability in the System

• Voting is only one way of participation

Ways to Increase Turnout

• Continue to Lower Costs– Mandatory voting– Same Day Registration– Mail and Internet voting– Weekend Voting– Holiday Voting