Voting

11/2/2011

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form

• Upon completion of this course, students will be able to:– discuss and critically analyze political events in the

United States government– understand and interpret the United States

Constitution and apply it to present policy dilemmas.

– assess the 2010 and 2012 elections without resorting to partisan bickering.

Office Hours and Readings

• Chapter 5• Chapter 4 (110-129)

• Office Hours– Thursday 8-10– Monday 8-10:30

"The most accurate form of public opinion polling is the vote." Walter Dean Burnham

VOTING IN THE CONSTITUTIONIt Says Very Little

What The Constitution Says

• Article I Section 2

• Article I Section 4

Civil War Amendments

• 14th- Male and 21 for federal elections

• 15th- Cannot Deny on the condition of race or previous servitude

17th Amendment (1913)

• Senators will be elected by the people

• This Ends appointment by state legislature

19th Amendment

• Wyoming is the first state to grant women’s suffrage

• states cannot deny the right to vote on account of sex

Recent Expansions

• 23rd Amendment

• 26th Amendment

• Expanding to win

The Role of the States

• States still can control who votes as long as they do not violate the federal law

• Restrictions Today

WHO VOTESThree Big Things

Factor 1: Age

Age and Voting

• Older People vote more

• Why

• Curvilinear relationship!

Factor 2: Education

Education and Voting

• This is a linear relationship

• Why do better educated people vote more?

Other Effects of Education

Education and Age in 2008

Factor 3: Income

Income and Voting

• Wealthy people vote at higher Rates

• Related to education

• Lower Information Costs

Other Factors

• Partisanship

• Previous Voting History

WHY YOUNG PEOPLE DO NOT VOTE

Registration

Why Young People Don’t Vote

• Are Unfamiliar with the system-

• Are one step above Gypsies

• Have less formal and political education

Low Social Capital

• Writings of Robert Putnam

• Are not connected to the community

• As a Result, have low interest in politics

TURNOUT IN RECENT ELECTIONSHigh and low stimulus elections: The Saw-tooth Pattern

Presidential elections

• Why Higher

• What is the Result- the exciting saw-tooth pattern

Turnout in 2004

• Higher than 2000, which was supposed to favor Democrats

• Why Higher Turnout

• Who it helped?

Voter Turnout in 2008

• 130 Million voted, 61% which was the highest rate since 1968

• Where was turnout up?

– Best States

– Worst States

People expected more Voters in 2008

• Only slightly higher than 2004

• 18-29 year olds did not increase greatly

• Why No increase?

Turnout in 2010

• Very Similar to 2006

• A Smaller Electorate than 2008

• 42% overall

Midyear Tends to be boring

Low Motivation from The Left

• Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory

• Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue

Who Voted

• GOP was more energized

• More conservative

• Older

• Whiter

Groups most likely to vote Democratic stayed at home, and enabled the GOP to win at all levels