Congress II

3/19/2012

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form

• Upon completion of this course, students will be able to:– identify and explain the role of formal

(congressional) institutions and their effect on policy. – to understand and interpret the United States

Constitution and apply it to present policy dilemmas. – have a better understanding of why our national

government works and why the American system of government is unique.

Office Hours and Readings

• Chapter 8 on Congress

• Office Hours– Today 12-2– Wednesday 10-2

The Three Things You Need

Getting Elected

WE DO NOT VOTE FOR NOBODIESName Recognition

Name Recognition

• To Be Known, is to be known favorably

• Media focuses on known candidates

• Means more money spent elswehere

Who Has Name Recognition

• Incumbents

• Lower Level office holders

• Prominent people in the community

Who Has Name Recognition: Born into it

Actors

• From the Love Boat

• From the Dukes of Hazzard

• Stuart Smalley

Athletes

Good Bad

MONEYRunning for Congress is not Free

You need to raise and spend money

• There is no public money available

• It keeps getting more expensive

• Winning a seat

– 1.1 Million in the House– 6.5 Million in the Senate

Why So Expensive?

• Television

• Travel

• The War Chest

Where You Get it

• People

• Pacs

• Party/other

Spend other People’s money

Outspend My Challenger

Money may not be the most important thing in a campaign, but it is a close second to what ever is

INCUMBENCY

Incumbency

• It is a great job, and you want to keep it

• Incumbency gives you both money and name recognition

Why Do Incumbents Win?: Money

• People don’t give money to losers

• You want a Return on Investment

Why Do Incumbents Win?

• Gerrymandering in the House

• Name Recognition in House and Senate– Credit Claiming on bills

Why do incumbents win: Constituency Services

• Helping out the people back home

• Earmarks

• Traditional Service

Why Incumbents Win: Homestyle

• We vote for people like us

• We vote for people we trust

• You have to learn to match the district

You Can’t Beat Somebody with no body

• Weak Challengers

• People Who Spend their own money

• They Run Unopposed

House Reelection Rates

Senate Reelection Rates

The Senate historically has lower rates of reelection, why?

WHY DO INCUMBENTS LOSE?

Scandal

Why Else do you lose

• Redistricting

• National Trends and Coat-tails

• Out of Touch/Too Old

• First Re-election bid

OPEN SEATSThe Real battles

What Creates an Open Seat

• Reapportionment in the House

• Strategic Retirements – Win>Not Run>Lose

• Ambition

Open Seat Elections

• Home of the Real Fights

• Parties and Pacs pour in money

• Parties believe if they can win, they can keep the seat forever

• Strategic Candidates

2010A Good year for the Republicans

A Historical Perspective

Factor 1: Who isn’t there

No Bush No Obama

Factor 2 Issues favored the GOP

• Economy Trumps Everything and GOP has the Edge

• Health Care is a push

• No One Cares about Afghanistan

Midyears as Referendum on the Economy

Factor 3 Mid Year Elections Serve as Referendums on the President

• President Obama is not unpopular (e.g. Bush 2006)

• But he is not popular either (e.g. Clinton 1998)

• The Result is the Dems lose seats

Factor 4: Midyear Elections favor the Outparty

• Turnout decreases among president’s party

• Bandwagon effect is less among independents

• Angry voters more than satisfied voters

The House Results

• GOP Gets– 100% of leaning GOP

Seats (29)– 30 of 42 Tossups– 6 “safe/leaning”

Democratic seats

The Senate Results

• The Democrats Hold

• The Tea Party takes 3 seats, but loses 3 other

2012Looking Ahead

In The House

• 435 House Seats

• Many are held by rookies

• Democrats need 46 seats to take it back

In the Senate

• 33 Senate Races

• The Class of “2006”

• The GOP needs 4 seats (51)

• There are 10 Toss-ups

What Can Happen?

• Obama wins big

• Obama has a personal victory

• A Republican wins